Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Lowest Percent in 27-Year History Use Credit Cards Over Thanksgiving Weekend
• Is The Credit Contraction Over?
• Bloomberg Poll Shows More Than Half of Americans Want Fed Reined In or Abolished
• Exceptionally Strange Bedfellows; More Cookies! Oh Boy!
• CNN: House Democrats defy Obama on tax cut bill
• France Joins Germany to Nix Junker's Junk Bond Proposal to Save the Euro

Lowest Percent in 27-Year History Use Credit Cards Over Thanksgiving Weekend Posted: 09 Dec 2010 09:23 PM PST Got cash? People are shunning credit cards like never before in history. Card issuers are fighting back with huge incentives to get people charging again. So far its not working. The New York Times reports On Christmas Shopping Lists, No Credit Slips The lowest percentage of shoppers in the 27-year-history of a national survey said they used credit cards over the Thanksgiving weekend, while the use of general credit cards like Visa and MasterCard fell 11 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to the credit bureau TransUnion. Britt Beemer, chief executive of America's Research Group, a survey firm, said "The consumer really feels a lot of pressure from previous debts, and they just aren't going to dig themselves into that kind of hole," he said. After the Thanksgiving shopping weekend, the group found that just about 17 percent were paying with credit — just over half of last year's level and the lowest rate in the 27 years it has conducted a survey. Some people are shunning credit cards for budgeting reasons, while others do not have a choice. More than 15 million Americans lost their cards because of strict credit-card regulations that were passed last year, or when issuers cut back on credit during the recession, said David Robertson, publisher of The Nilson Report, a credit card industry newsletter. Shoppers using retailers' branded cards tend to spend more and visit stores more, said Robert S. Drbul, an analyst at Barclays Capital. So all are offering big incentives to get people to use plastic. The Chase Freedom and Discover More cards, for instance, are offering $100 bonuses when new credit card customers spend a certain amount within the first three months, along with 5 percent cash back on holiday purchases at department stores and other categories. Citibank is giving Dividend cardholders 5 percent back on spending at department, clothing and electronics stores through Dec. 31. Target is giving its cardholders a 5 percent discount on purchases, Neiman Marcus is advertising extra rewards points on most purchases on certain days this month, and Sears has been running a variety of no-payment, no-interest offers on its credit cards throughout the holidays. "The credit card companies are falling all over themselves trying to make those rewards even better," Mr. Robertson said. But, with customers moving to cash or debit, the companies are "simply less profitable," he said. Total Revolving Credit Total Revolving Credit Year-Over-Year Percent Change Attitudes Rule As I have said many times, it's consumer attitudes Bernanke is fighting. And it's a battle he is losing. For more on consumer credit, revolving and nonrevolving, please see Is The Credit Contraction Over? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Is The Credit Contraction Over? Posted: 09 Dec 2010 05:16 PM PST Headlines on December 7th trumpet the message Consumer Credit in U.S. Increases for Second Month Credit climbed by $3.38 billion after increasing a revised $1.23 billion in September, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. Non-revolving loans rose for a third month as federal government education-related lending jumped an unadjusted $31.8 billion. The report showed credit-card debt fell for a 26th consecutive time, showing Americans continue to pay down debt, one reason spending has been slow to recover. Car sales last month climbed to the highest level in a year and holiday purchases have perked up, indicating households may soon start borrowing again. Revolving debt, which includes credit cards, dropped by $5.64 billion in October, according to the Fed. Non-revolving debt, which in addition to student borrowing also includes loans for cars and mobile homes, rose by $9.02 billion. The report doesn't track debt secured by real estate, such as home-equity lines of credit. Credit Expansion? Student loans did not used to be classified as consumer credit. Unfortunately, student loans have distorted historical charts so much that many consumer credit comparisons are now useless. In Breakfast With Dave, Rosenberg asks "Is the Credit Contraction Over?" What do you know? Outstanding U.S. consumer credit expanded $3.3 billion in October after eking out a $1.3 billion increase in September. This is the first back-to-back gain since just before Hank Paulson took out his bazooka in the summer of 2008. Does this mean the credit contraction is over? Hell no. First, the raw not seasonally adjusted data show a $700 million decline. Once again, it was federally-supported credit (ie. student-backed loans) that accounted for all the increase last month ― a record $31.8 billion expansion. Commercial banks, securitized pools and finance companies posted huge declines ― to the point where excluding federal loans, consumer credit plunged $32.5 billion, to the lowest level since November 2004 (not to mention down a record 9% YoY). Over the past three months consumer credit outstanding net of federal student assisted loans has collapsed $76 billion — this degree of contraction is without precedent. Consumer Credit Minus Federal Loans Z.1 Flow of Funds Inquiring minds are digging into today's Flow of Funds release by the Fed. These numbers are through 3rd Quarter 2010. Total Domestic Nonfinancial Household Credit: -$232 billion. Down 10 consecutive quarters. Home Mortgages: -$255.8 billion. Down 10 consecutive quarters. Household Consumer Credit: -$37.0 billion. Down 9 consecutive quarters. Domestic Financial Sectors: -$584.9 billion. Down 7 consecutive quarters. What was up? Total Business Credit: +$185.2 billion. Up 1 consecutive quarter. State and Local Government: +$124.1 billion. Up 1 consecutive quarter. Federal Government: +1395.9 billion. Up countless quarters Definitions: Domestic debt comprises credit market funds borrowed by U.S. entities from both domestic and foreign sources, while foreign debt represents amounts borrowed by foreign financial and nonfinancial entities in U.S. markets only. Financial sectors consist of government-sponsored enterprises, agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pools, and private financial institutions. Credit market debt consists of debt securities, mortgages, bank loans, commercial paper, consumer credit, U.S. government loans, and other loans and advances; it excludes trade debt, loans for the purpose of carrying securities, and funds raised from equity sources. Put away those trumpets. Credit, except for government spending is still in net contraction. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Bloomberg Poll Shows More Than Half of Americans Want Fed Reined In or Abolished Posted: 09 Dec 2010 01:39 PM PST In exceptional news for Ron Paul, a Bloomberg poll shows More Than Half of Americans Want Fed Reined In or Abolished A majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the nation's independent central bank, saying the U.S. Federal Reserve should either be brought under tighter political control or abolished outright, a poll shows The survey, conducted Dec. 4-7, also shows deep skepticism, especially among Republicans, over the Fed's Nov. 3 announcement that it would buy bonds in an attempt to bring down unemployment and prevent deflation. More than half say the purchases won't help the economy. The policy, known as quantitative easing, was the target of criticism in Washington and overseas. That prompted Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to appear in an interview on CBS television's "60 Minutes" program on Dec. 5 to defend his actions. Americans across the political spectrum say the Fed shouldn't retain its current structure of independence. Asked if the central bank should be more accountable to Congress, left independent or abolished entirely, 39 percent said it should be held more accountable and 16 percent that it should be abolished. Only 37 percent favor the status quo. Republicans and independents are more likely to support ending the Fed, with 19 percent of independents, 16 percent of Republicans, and 12 percent of Democrats wanting to do away with the central bank. Among those who identify themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement, which wants to rein in government, 21 percent want to abolish the Fed. Republicans in Congress have taken aim at the Fed's dual mandate to achieve both maximum employment and stable prices. Last month, two Republicans, Tennessee Senator Bob Corker and Indiana Representative Mike Pence, proposed removing the employment mandate to focus the Fed on stable prices. Corker plans to introduce legislation next year. That legislation would amend the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act of 1978, which created the Fed's dual mandate. Most members of Congress haven't taken a hard look at the Fed in decades, said Representative Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican in line to head the House Budget Committee. "They're really beginning to wake up on this," Ryan said in an interview. The risk is letting Congress set monetary policy. Neither the Fed nor Congress should set rates. If anyone would be worse than the Fed, it would be Congress. However, Ron Paul is well aware of that problem. His proposal is to abolish the Fed and let the free market set interest rates. One small first step would be to kill the dual mandate provision of the Fed. For more on dual mandates please see Geithner Politicizes the Fed, Warns Congress to Not do the Same; Idiocies and Ironies; Economist James Galbraith Unfit to Teach Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Exceptionally Strange Bedfellows; More Cookies! Oh Boy! Posted: 09 Dec 2010 10:23 AM PST Barney Frank has now come out against the tax compromise of president Obama and so has the Democratic budget caucus. Nonetheless, Barney Frank predicts the measure will pass as enough Republicans will back the measure. This puts the onus of stopping the compromise on Nancy Pelosi. I highly doubt she has the nerve, no matter how much she hates the bill. Thus it will be Obama and the Republican who ram this bill through. Please consider House Democrats reject tax plan unless changed By voice vote in a closed caucus meeting, Democrats passed a resolution saying the tax package should not come to the House floor for consideration as written, even though no formal House bill has been drafted. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., introduced the resolution. Said Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas: "If it's take it or leave it, we'll leave it." The president again pressed Congress to pass the agreement, saying it has the potential to create millions of jobs. He said if it fails, Americans would see smaller paychecks and fewer jobs. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., predicted the tax cut compromise "will be passed by virtually all the Republicans and a minority of Democrats." He said he would vote against it. Larry Summers, Obama's chief economic adviser, told reporters that if the measure isn't passed soon, it will "materially increase the risk the economy would stall out and we would have a double-dip" recession. That put the White House in the unusual position of warning its own party's lawmakers they could be to blame for calamitous consequences if they go against the president. House Democrats, who will lose their majority in January, still hold a 255-179 edge in the current Congress. To pass a big bill with mostly Republican votes would mark a dramatic departure from recent battles, such as the health care overhaul, which was enacted with virtually no GOP support in either chamber. Passage of Obama's plan seems more assured in the Senate, where numerous Democrats have agreed that the president had little choice in making the compromises with Republicans. Still, Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said he and colleagues are considering possible changes, and action could come within days. More Changes Cookies! Oh Boy! More changes mean more cookies. Net-net cookies are seldom removed from the plate. Look for a big push to add BABs to the plate even though We're Better Off Without 'Build America Bonds' As a part of Obama's Recovery and Reinvestment Act, BABs allow state and local governments to issue debt to fund basic infrastructure projects at a 35 percent discount on the bond's interest costs, handing that bill to the federal government. CNBC reports that the BAB program accounts for nearly 26 percent of today's municipal bond market- with October being reported as the biggest month for the program, as issuers increasingly position themselves to reap the benefits of the program which is set to expire on the 1st of January next year. What will happen when municipal bond issuers are not able to borrow more cheaply? Well, heaven forbid, they would be forced to pay market rates for debt. If they can't afford these rates, then they'll have to cut spending and re-gear their budgets to enter the credit market. The 2010 election results at the state level may indeed have changed things. With a sweeping conservative, Republican wave in state and local governments this past election (the GOP took over a dozen state legislatures), it is almost certain that such cuts will now be possible. It's no surprise that our most fiscally irresponsible state and local governments are heavily exposed to BABs to fund basic operations. According to Thompson Reuters, the top issuer of BABs is the state of California at over $13 billion dollars, followed by New York City at a significantly lower $3.5 billion. In June of this year, according to the Wall Street Journal, the state of Illinois was at greater risk of default than Iraq. In large part, the BAB subsidy was able to keep the state afloat. Will these governments default without this program? On CNBC's Strategy Sessions, Jonathan Beinner, CIO and co-head of the Global Fixed Income and Liquidity Management team, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, predicted that there will not be a large number of municipal defaults. Let's hope he's right. Considering their initial QE2 estimates, Goldman has recently had a habit of taking politics as the crow flies. BABs are unhealthy for America's free market. It is unfair for the American taxpayer to subsidize state and local borrowing costs. Why should they be at the front of the line? The federal government is giving an unfair advantage to issuers of this irresponsible debt by using the American taxpayer to prop up negligent states and municipalities that are reckless and largely ineffective spenders. If we could repeat 1986 and allow Donald Trump to come in and rebuild public projects like Wollman Rink in three months, $750,000 below budget, we would be much better off, albeit the flashy gold lettering. Though the fragility of circumstances will only intensify for issuers once BABs expire, we can all agree that there is too much debt creation at the government level. BABs are another form of Obama Era bailouts that we must do without. Anything we "must do without" is a sure candidate for something that someone wants to add to the plate. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

CNN: House Democrats defy Obama on tax cut bill Posted: 09 Dec 2010 09:25 AM PST Put this into the "I will believe it when I see it" category (especially since there is no stock market reaction), but CNN reports House Democrats defy Obama on tax cut bill Defying President Obama, House Democrats voted Thursday not to bring up the tax package that he negotiated with Republicans in its current form. "This message today is very simple: That in the form that it was negotiated, it is not acceptable to the House Democratic caucus. It's as simple as that," said Democratic Congressman Chris Van Hollen. "We will continue to try and work with the White House and our Republican colleagues to try and make sure we do something right for the economy and right for jobs, and a balanced package as we go forward," he said. The vote comes a day after Vice President Biden made clear to House Democrats behind closed doors that the deal would unravel if any changes were made. "Wow did the [White House] mishandle this," a senior House Democratic Source told CNN. "Breathtaking. Members have major substantive concerns and they should have gently guided people to the finish line." Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon said: "They said take it or leave it. We left it." Had added the caucus resolution is technically not binding, but believes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "will follow the wishes of her caucus." I believe Pelosi cannot think on her own and will do what she is told to do by the President so as to "not damage the party". Nonetheless this is a clear slap in the face to President Obama, and a much deserved one at that. He should have made sure the caucuses would approve his compromise up front. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

France Joins Germany to Nix Junker's Junk Bond Proposal to Save the Euro Posted: 09 Dec 2010 08:41 AM PST Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the Euro Group and Prime Minister of Luxembourg (not to be confused with Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB) hatched a plan to combine the bonds of all the Eurozone countries into one entity, saying E-bonds would end the crisis Europe must formulate a strong and systemic response to the crisis, to send a clear message to global markets and European citizens of our political commitment to economic and monetary union, and the irreversibility of the euro. This can be achieved by launching E-bonds, or European sovereign bonds, issued by a European Debt Agency (EDA) as successor to the current European Financial Stability Facility. Time is of the essence. The European Council could move as early as this month to create such an agency, with a mandate gradually to reach an amount of outstanding paper equivalent to 40 per cent of the gross domestic product of the European Union and of each member state. Subprime Bundling is No Solution Junker's plan is much like the idea of taking subprime loans bundling them together with AA and A loans, putting the mess into one package and stamping the whole thing AAA on the misguided notion (lie) that bundling would make everything safe. With Junker's plan, higher rated countries like Germany and France would see their borrowing costs rise, while Ireland, Portugal, and Spain would see their borrowing costs dramatically lower. Meanwhile as with subprime housing loans, the underlying rot would still be eating away at the core. Germany Rejects Junker's Idea Almost immediately Germany Snubs Pleas to Boost Aid, Sell Joint Bonds Germany rejected calls to increase the European Union's 750 billion-euro ($1 trillion) aid fund or introduce joint bond sales, signaling its refusal to bear extra costs to stamp out the debt crisis. With European finance ministers gathered in Brussels today for their monthly meeting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rebuffed pleas from Belgium and central bankers to boost the emergency fund to save countries such as Portugal and Spain from falling prey to speculation. "Right now I see no need to expand the fund," Merkel told reporters in Berlin. She said EU treaties bar joint bond sales, which might force up Germany's borrowing costs, the lowest in the euro area. France Rejects Junker's Idea Junker's idea is now officially dead as French Back German Rejection of More Aid German government bonds climbed, snapping a two-day drop, as France backed Germany in refusing to add to the European Union's 440 billion-euro ($581 billion) rescue fund and rejecting joint euro-area debt securities. The gains sent 30-year German yields down from the highest in almost seven months. Dutch and Belgian bonds also rose as European Central Bank Governing Council member Nout Wellink yesterday said he doesn't favor joint bond issuance for the euro region, while the ECB today said emergency liquidity measures will stay "as long as necessary." Irish bonds were little changed after Fitch Ratings downgraded the nation's credit. France backs Germany's resistance to increasing the size of the European Union bailout fund and to joint euro-area bonds, a French official told reporters today. Euro bonds are an "implicit transfer of money to other countries," Wellink, the Dutch central bank chief, told reporters in Frankfurt yesterday. Creating euro bonds would be "a very intransparent way of burden sharing," he said. Goldman Sachs, no doubt seeking to peddle more securities, supports the idea of E-Bonds. Regardless, the idea is dead in the water and neither the ECB nor the EU has addressed what will happen sooner or later: one or more of the group of PIGS, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain will default. The only solution is a haircut for senior bond-holders and no one but German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been willing to even discuss that idea. Unfortunately, Merkel backed down from that idea under pressure from Jean-Claude Trichet and the ECB. It may not take long before Irish, Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish yields soar back to new highs given the underlying stress still mounts. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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