Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Cincinnati Threatens to Outsource Entire Police Department
• Canadian Borrowing Gone Mad: A Look at BMO's Misguided Balance Sheet Theory and the Keep on Dancin' Market Share Theory of Toronto-Dominion
• Spanish "Ghost Towns", Shadow Inventory, Cooked Books; Spain's 2011 Real Estate Funding Crisis

Cincinnati Threatens to Outsource Entire Police Department Posted: 18 Dec 2010 08:55 PM PST Cincinnati, like every union-plagued city in the country is having huge budget problems over untenable union wages and pension benefits. Big problems call for big actions. I am pleased to report that several thinking members on the Cincinnati City Council proposed to outsource the entire police department to the local sheriff's association. Unfortunately, the mayor nixed the idea. The Cincinnati Enquirer reports City-county police merger proposed Three Cincinnati City Council members floated a proposal Wednesday to shift city police patrols to the Hamilton County Sheriff's Office as a way to help plug a $60 million deficit in the city budget and avoid 275 police and firefighters layoffs. But just as quickly as council members Roxanne Qualls, Wendell Young and Jeff Berding pitched the plan – which Hamilton County Sheriff Simon Leis supports – it seemingly died. Council currently does not have enough votes to override a threatened veto by Mayor Mark Mallory, who in a letter to Leis said he sees the proposal as "a brazen and shameless attempt at union-busting" that he will never support. Council members Cecil Thomas, Charlie Winburn and Leslie Ghiz are definite no votes. Ghiz, who practices labor law, said the plan sounds to her like union-busting since council members just this week asked the police and fire unions for $20 million in concessions. Cincinnati City Councilman Chris Bortz, who joined Leis, Qualls, Young and Berding at the Enquirer to talk about the idea, said merging services is worth exploring, but he wasn't willing to commit. The proposed plan calls for the city to lay off its 790 patrol officers. The city would then pay the sheriff's department for patrols, who would hire many of the city officers to do those patrols. The rest of the police department would remain under the chief's supervision. By doing the switch through layoffs and re-hiring, Qualls said the process does not violate the union contract. Brazen and Shameless What's brazen and shameless is the arrogance of the police union and Mayor Mark Mallory's willingness to hold citizens of Cincinnati hostage to untenable union demands. Clearly Mallory is beholden to the unions, not to the taxpayers of Cincinnati whom he is supposed to represent. Here is the Proposal from Simon Leis Jr. Sheriff Hamilton County, Ohio. Check yourself to see if appears to be a "brazen, shameless" proposal. Mallory has his priorities wrong and is unfit for office. The same can be said for Cecil Thomas, Charlie Winburn and Leslie Ghiz. Your priority, should you live in Cincinnati, should be to get rid of Mayor Mark Mallory, and all of his pro-union cronies. They have destroyed your city and will continue to do so. I commend Roxanne Qualls, Wendell Young and Jeff Berding for having the courage to make a proposal of outstanding merit. What You Can Do Please contact Mark Mallory, Leslie Ghiz, Cecil Thomas, and Charlie Winburn and let them know how disgusted you are that they would not even consider the merits of the proposal. You can reach Mark Mallory at 513.352.3250. Please email mayor.mallory@cincinnati-oh.gov to comment on police department outsourcing. You can reach Leslie Ghiz at 513-352-3344 Please email leslie.ghiz@cincinnati-oh.gov to comment on police department outsourcing. You can reach Cecil Thomas at 513-352-3499 Please email cecil.thomas@cincinnati-oh.gov to comment on police department outsourcing. You can reach Charlie Winburn at 513-352-5354 Please email charlie.winburn@cincinnati-oh.gov to comment on police department outsourcing. Please let the mayor know you are tired of seeing your taxes raised to support public unions who get far more benefits and wages than taxpayers can afford and that it is high time for mayors and council members to be beholden to taxpayers, not unions. Thanks to "Machiavellian" at the Virtuous Republic for his email that led to this post. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Canadian Borrowing Gone Mad: A Look at BMO's Misguided Balance Sheet Theory and the Keep on Dancin' Market Share Theory of Toronto-Dominion Posted: 18 Dec 2010 09:55 AM PST Theory has it that Canadian banks are in far better shape than their US counterparts. If so, it's primarily because the Canadian Central Bank (Bank of Canada) has assumed nearly all the default risk on Canada's massive property bubble. Is that supposed to make everyone stand up and salute the Loonie? One key point that has recently come into the spotlight is Canadian citizens are not in better shape than their US counterparts. All those going "rah rah" over the Loonie, might be advised to consider some of the following articles. Canadians warned to rein in borrowing on cheap money before it's too late Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney issued a staunch warning to Canadians about the perils of cheap borrowing Monday, just as fresh data suggested household debt-to-income ratios have jumped to record highs. "Household debt levels are at unprecedented levels relative to income — the level of vulnerability of households remains high," Carney told a news conference after a speech in Toronto. Statistics Canada said Monday the ratio of debt to disposable income rose to 148.1 per cent in Canada in the third quarter — a close to five point jump — slightly ahead of the U.S. ratio of 147.2 per cent. TD Bank chief economist Craig Alexander said it was natural that the government would explore ways to constrain borrowing, but said he also does not believe the situation has reached a crisis. Apparently TD Bank chief economist Craig Alexander thinks it's best to wait until there is a crisis to do anything about it. No doubt Alexander is a big believer in the Greenspan methodology of dealing with bubbles after they burst even though we have already seen the disastrous results of such complaisance. Here's another good one from up North: Consumers warned: 'brutal reckoning' ahead Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney issued another stern warning Monday on Canadians' appetite to take on record levels of household debt, which some analysts took as a signal he is set to raise interest rates as soon as the economy improves. "Cheap money is not a long-term growth strategy," Carney said. "Low rates today do not necessarily mean low rates tomorrow. Risk reversals when they happen can be fierce: the greater the complacency, the more brutal the reckoning." In Ottawa, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said his government could tighten mortgage eligibility rules for a third time, if required, to keep credit growth in check. Based on conversations he's had with banking executives, "there is no reason for extreme concern right now," Flaherty said. "But there is a reason for concern. So if it is necessary, we will toughen up the mortgage rules some more." What's with this "no reason for extreme concern right now" nonsense? The Canadian property bubble is of epic proportion. Flaherty too, appears to be a proponent of the Greenspan theory that bubbles can only be recognized in hindsight. Blue Ribbon Complacency Awards The blue ribbon for complacency goes to the Bank of Montreal for Debt picture not so bleak Statistics Canada released data Monday showing that Canadian household debt has risen to 148 per cent of disposable income. The eye-popping figure is all the more alarming considering it's the first time since the 1990s that Canada's ratio has been higher than that of the U.S. Alarm bells rang everywhere from the Bank of Canada to the Finance Department on Monday, and Canadians were urged to tighten their belts and prepare for a time of austerity. But a closer look at the numbers indicates the picture might not be so bleak. "The continued laser-like focus on debt overshadows the other half of the balance sheet," BMO chief economist Doug Porter said Monday. Namely, Canadians are borrowing. But they're also saving, and they're worth more than they used to be. Balance Sheet Theory Madness Porter's statements are exactly the same kind of silliness we heard in the US regarding the central belief "massive debt is OK because it's supported by rising asset prices". It was bad enough that anyone believed such nonsense a few years ago before the US property bubble blew sky high. That such beliefs still have proponents at the highest level of Canadian banks now seems rather amazing. It just goes to show just how firm the belief "It's different here" is in Canada. When housing prices crash, and especially if the stock market goes with it, what's left of Porter's "Balance Sheet Theory" will look something like a moldy slice of 3-year-old Swiss cheese. Banks Won' Lead The Way Toronto-Dominion Bank chief executive officer Ed Clark says Banks won't lead way on fixing debt problem. If policy makers want Canadians to stop borrowing too much, it's up to Ottawa, not financial institutions, to force a change in behaviour, says one of Bay Street's longest-serving senior bankers. Toronto-Dominion Bank chief executive officer Ed Clark acknowledged Canadians' alarming debt levels, but said the issue is a matter of public policy and would be best resolved by a tighter government rules on residential mortgages. In an interview with The Globe and Mail, Mr. Clark said that no bank wants to be the first to impose stricter requirements on borrowers out of fear that it will suffer a major loss of customers to rivals. Personal banking "is a highly competitive industry," Mr. Clark said. "If we said 'Look, we're going to be heroes and save Canada from itself, and we'll impose a whole new [mortgage] regime on everyone else,' the other four [large] banks would say 'Let's carve them up.' " Mr. Clark said it is impossible to expect any bank to crack the whip on borrowers because "market share loss is perceived as a strategic loss, not just a numerical or dollar loss." Dance Until The Music Stops Clark sounds like he's a big believer in the Chuck Price Music Theory best described in retrospect as "Keep dancing until you dance out the door". Flashback July 10, 2007: Quotes of the Day / Top Call Chuck Prince - Citigroup CEO No End Soon to Buyout Boom: "When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing". Mish reply. If ever there was market arrogance, the statements by Chuck Prince says it all. In an interview with the newspaper, Prince said the boom will eventually end, but will continue for now because markets have plenty of liquidity, despite turmoil in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. He denied Citigroup was pulling back, the newspaper said. "When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated," he said. "But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing. Prince added: "The depth of the pools of liquidity is so much larger than it used to be that a disruptive event now needs to be much more disruptive than it used to be. At some point, the disruptive event will be so significant that, instead of liquidity filling in, the liquidity will go the other way. I don't think we're at that point. My comment at the time was "I leave it to you to decide whether or not this is the 'last dance'". Flashback November 02, 2007: Music Stops for Chuck Prince The party is over and the music has stopped for Chuck Prince. His last dance is a two-step out the door. Citi's Prince Plans to Resign. Moral-Hazard Position of Bank of Canada Toronto-Dominion's CEO does not give a damn about fundamentals, about acting on their clients' interests, or for that matter acting on shareholder interests. Clark's only concern is in not losing market share to the other Canadian banks until the whole mess blows sky high. Canada's banks clearly don't care what happens as long as they can pass the trash to the Bank of Canada, the Canadian equivalent of Fannie Mae. Clark's statements, as well as statements made by the chief economists of BMO and Toronto-Dominion, put a spotlight on the decidedly stupid moral-hazard mess the Bank of Canada has gotten itself into by backstopping mortgages of Canadian borrowers. But hey, look on the bright side. The music is still playing. In memory of Chuck Prince, Keep on Dancin' Addendum: I said Bank of Canada in a couple of places where I should have said CMHC. Here are a couple of corrections from Canadian readers. "RP" Writes .... Quick corrections here Mish. Mortgages in Canada are guaranteed by the CMHC, which is a crown corporation equivalent to Fannie Mae. Anything less than 20% down requires this insurance, so that's the source of the Canadian banks' "health". The loose lending standards were set by the current "Conservative" government, a few months after they came in office. We had 0 down, 40 year mortgages insured by the government for a couple of years. Now it's officially 5% down and 35 years, but every bank will lend you the downpayment. The government also insures mortgages for rental properties. Similarly, "MS" writes .... Hey Mish, One inaccuracy that should be corrected. It's the CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation) that serves as the equivalent to Fannie and Freddie, not the BoC. The CMHC insures mortgages for below market rates, and the major banks pass along their loans to them. The Conservative government ordered the CMHC (a crown corporation) to insure some $300 Billion in additional mortgages during the crisis - nearly double their previous holdings. It is this that has buoyed the Canadian R/E market since then. Banks don't worry about credit worthiness, because the CMHC will take it anyway in order to meet their quota. "Moi" Writes .... Mish you are one of the few Americans that seem to "Get It". So many of the other US financial writers talk glowingly about how sound Canada is financially and how the Canadian banks did not take part in the risky lending practices that the US banks have taken part in. This is complete and utter BS!! The Canadian banks are doing the same sort of zero down or variable rate mortgages it's just they have none of the risk to worry about. 600 Billion dollars worth of that mortgage risk is held by the government of Canada thanks to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). There are cash back mortgages every where in this country. In other words come up with your measly 5% down payment and the bank will give you 5% back. So here in Canada we proudly brag about how we do not have zero down mortgages, we just call them by a different name. Also, if you do not have 5% to put down no problem. All of the banks will loan you money to by an RRSP (IRA), you can than cash that RRSP to be paid back later and use that as your 5% down payment. Voila, zero down mortgages. The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals came out last month with their "Good News" annual report last month. Just like the Real Estate Industry, all news is good news. Take a look at the numbers. At these absolutely rock bottom interest rates: 100,000 mortgage holders would be in trouble with any rate move. 350,000 mortgage holders would be in trouble if rates only go up less than 1 percent. 250,000 mortgage holders would be in trouble if rates went up between 1 and 1.5 percent. So, if interest rates which are at Century lows went up a measly 1.5 percent, 700,000 mortgage holders in Canada would be in trouble. What if they went up 2 or 3%? It would be mortgage Armageddon in Canada. This is how precarious our housing market. The following link gives you just one tiny example of why Canadian housing is a house of cards that could topple at the slightest touch. http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.com/2010/05/pardon.html http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadian-mortgage-debt-tops-1-trillion-for-first-time/article1789172/ 5% or more cash back mortgage: http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/mortgages/5_cashback.jsp http://www.rbcroyalbank.com/products/mortgages/cash-back-mortgage.html Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Spanish "Ghost Towns", Shadow Inventory, Cooked Books; Spain's 2011 Real Estate Funding Crisis Posted: 18 Dec 2010 12:39 AM PST In Spain, huge projects are completely empty and bad debts mounts as the Spanish banks play extend-and-pretend with developers. That game is about to end. Developer loans are coming due. Yet, there is no way for developers to make interest payments let alone pay any principal. When developers collapse in 2011, banks will be stuck with a vast amount of undeveloped land at overvalued prices as well as ghost towns so far outside of major towns that no one will live in them. A flood of inventory awaits a death of buyers. Moreover, a huge amount of shadow-inventory is waiting on deck, hoping for better prices so the owners can bail. Unfortunately there is no one to bail to. Spain's official unemployment rate is 20%, and it's quite likely the real unemployment rate is higher. On top of that, Spain has to deal with various austerity measures. There is no way for it to grow out of its problems. Many are starting to realize Spain is massively understating the problems its banks, and Spanish banks books are cooked. That has been my position all along. The New York Times offers evidence in Newly Built Ghost Towns Haunt Banks in Spain It is a measure of Spain's giddy construction excesses that 250 row houses carpet a hill near this tiny rural village about an hour by car outside of Madrid. Most of these units have never sold, and though they were finished just three years ago, they are already falling into disrepair, the concrete chipping off the sides of the buildings. Vandals have stolen piping, radiators, doors — anything they could get their hands on. The Bank of Spain says the banks have about $240 billion in "problematic exposure" out of $580 billion invested in real estate and construction, a situation, they say, the banks are capable of handling. The boom and bust of Spain's property sector is astonishing. Over a decade, land prices rose about 500 percent and developers built hundreds of thousands of units — about 800,000 in 2007 alone. Developments sprang up on the outskirts of cities ready to welcome many of the four million immigrants who had settled in Spain, many employed in construction. "Most of the adjustment in housing prices has already taken place," José Manuel Campa, Spain's deputy finance minister, said recently, though he allowed that there was a lack of good information on real estate sales. Still, skeptics abound. One is Jesús Encinar, the founder of Spain's most popular property Web site, Idealista.com. He says that the Spanish authorities are striving to engineer a soft landing of the housing market that would give more time to offload surplus housing at reasonable prices. But he believes prices still have a long way to fall, by 30 or 40 percent, maybe more. "Some people who said there was no housing bubble are now saying we are at the bottom," Mr. Encinar said. "But I say we have several years to go." Fernando Acuña, co-founder of Pisosembargados.com, a Web site that sells housing on behalf of the banks, said as many as 100,000 repossessed units were now for sale in Spain, a number that "could double or triple." The biggest challenge for the banks is that they are likely to end up owners of vast amounts of undeveloped land. José Luis Suárez, an expert on real estate at the IESE business school, said 65 percent of bank lending to developers is tied up in land, enough to build 758,000 more housing units. "That gives you an idea of how long it could take for the market to digest all this," he said. There is much more in the two-page article. Inquiring minds will want to take a closer look. Revenue Drain to Hit Spain Bloomberg reports Spain Banks Face 2011 Revenue Drain on Funding Costs. Spain's banks, burdened this year by rising defaults and flagging credit demand, will face further pressure in 2011 as funding costs eat away at the returns on their stock of home loans. The squeeze may be worst for lenders with the greatest proportion of mortgages because they have less scope to pass on the financing costs to customers, said Claire Kane, an analyst at MF Global in London. Ibercaja, a Zaragoza-based savings bank, has 53 percent of its loans in mortgages, while Bankinter SA, based in Madrid, has 46 percent, Bank of Spain data show. "The amount of mortgages a bank has gives an indication of who is going to face the most pressure on revenues," said Daragh Quinn, an analyst at Nomura International in Madrid. "The more retail mortgages you have, the more difficult it will be to re-price your loan book." Cooked Books and Bad Loans The Bank of Spain said "Bad loans as a proportion of total loans in Spain climbed to 5.67 percent in October, the highest level since January 1996, from 5.50 percent in September and 4.99 percent a year ago." Does anyone believe that? I don't, but even if it is true, it will not stay that way long. Expect to see that rate rise as soon as developers default and banks get saddled with ghost towns. Here's another paragraph from the article that strikes me as unbelievable. "The quality of Spain's mortgages has proved resilient, even with unemployment higher than 20 percent. Moody's expects a loss ratio of 2.8 percent for home loans, compared with 12.9 percent for loans to developers and 50 percent for real estate assets." Anyone agree with Moody's regarding that 2.8% loss ratio on home loans in the face of statements by Jesús Encinar, from the preceding article. Encinar, the founder of Spain's most popular property Web site, thinks home prices drop another 30% over the next few years. PIGS Exposure Table Inquiring minds may wish to take another peek at PIGS Exposure Table, Explaining the Panic by Numbers click on chart for sharper image Exposure to Spain Germany - $216.6 billion France - $201.3 billion Great Britain - $136.5 billion US - $172.8 billion A Question of Philosophy Here's an interesting quote from the above Bloomberg article by Arturo de Frias, an analyst at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London: "Mortgages can be a problem in a given year such as 2011 because of the prevailing liquidity or funding conditions. Over a longer period, they remain a very profitable business." That sounds much like the philosophy espoused by Countrywide Financial and hundreds of U.S. subprime lenders that all suddenly died in 2007-2008. Ironically it's the reverse of an often repeated Keynesian phrase "In the long run, we're all dead." In this case it's "In the short run we're dead, but never mind that. In the long run we'll do just fine". It sums up the PIGS situation quite nicely, but it's certainly no way to run a business or a country. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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