luni, 31 ianuarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Federal Judge in Florida Voids Entire Healthcare Law; Obama's Concern "Bragging Rights"

Posted: 31 Jan 2011 02:42 PM PST

In a case destined to go to the Supreme Court, the Insurance Journal reports Federal Judge in Florida Rules Federal Healthcare Law Must Be Voided
U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson, appointed to the bench by President Ronald Reagan in 1983, ruled that the reform law's so-called "individual mandate" went too far in requiring that Americans start buying health insurance in 2014 or pay a penalty.

"Because the individual mandate is unconstitutional and not severable, the entire act must be declared void. This has been a difficult decision to reach, and I am aware that it will have indeterminable implications," Vinson wrote.

He was referring to a key provision in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and sided with governors and attorneys general from 26 U.S. states, almost all of whom are Republicans, in declaring it unconstitutional. The issue will likely end up at the U.S. Supreme Court.

Two other federal judges have rejected challenges to the individual mandate.

But a federal district judge in Richmond, Virginia, last month struck down that central provision of the law in a case in that state, saying it invited an "unbridled exercise of federal police powers."

The provision is key to the law's mission of covering more than 30 million uninsured. Officials argue it is only by requiring healthy people to purchase policies that they can help pay for reforms, including a mandate that individuals with pre-existing medical conditions cannot be refused coverage.
Unbridled Exercise of Federal Police Powers

Please consider the Wall Street Journal article Court Strikes at Health Law
U.S. District Judge Henry E. Hudson said the law's requirement that most Americans carry insurance or pay a penalty "exceeds the constitutional boundaries of congressional power."

The 42-page ruling doesn't mean states or the federal government must stop implementing the law. But it is expected to give ammunition to a broad Republican assault against the overhaul, which includes efforts in Congress to chip away at it.

Requiring Americans to buy insurance "would invite unbridled exercise of federal police powers," wrote Judge Hudson, a George W. Bush appointee in the Eastern District of Virginia. "At its core, this dispute is not simply about regulating the business of insurance—or crafting a scheme of universal health insurance coverage—it's about an individual's right to choose to participate."

Administration officials portrayed the ruling as an attack on one of the law's most popular provisions, the ban on insurers denying coverage to people with pre-existing health conditions. That piece of the law cannot work unless coupled with a requirement that nearly all Americans carry insurance, they said.
Who Cares if it's Constitutional as Long as it's Popular?

Obama does not care about constitutionality. He is concerned about bragging rights (He got healthcare passed when no other president could). He is also concerned about popularity.

Ironically, most polls show US citizens are not in favor of the bill that passed.

I happen to agree with the Virginia and Florida rulings regarding constitutionality of that provision. Moreover, given the poor way in which the bill was written, I also agree with the Florida ruling "Because the individual mandate is unconstitutional and not severable, the entire act must be declared void."

Many will point to auto insurance as proof of legality. However, not everyone has to buy auto insurance (only those drive cars do). Moreover, the point of auto insurance is to protect others from your damage, not yourself from your damage.

Nonetheless, I do not know how the Supreme Court will rule. I suspect they will uphold the law. They would be wise to not do so. The best thing to do with the monstrous healthcare bill is start over.

Addendum:
"LastBoyScout" says ...

Good points! Another, more important point is that auto insurance is required by individual states, not the federal government.

The 10th Amendment - Powers of States and people.

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Japan Learns to Live with Deflation (If Only Analysts Could Figure Out How)

Posted: 31 Jan 2011 11:05 AM PST

In Japan, wages are lower, but so are prices for goods and services, even food. Japan's companies are devising ways to profit from deflation, says Bloomberg writer Aki Ito in Japan Learns to Live with Deflation.
Ben Bernanke has been lecturing on deflation's perils since he joined the Federal Reserve in 2002 and has often held up Japan as Exhibit A.

There's something curious about the way the deflation syndrome has played out in Japan, though. The Japanese don't feel that threatened anymore. "Everyone knew deflation was bad for jobs and bad for the economy, but gradually households and companies just got used to it," says Martin Schulz, a senior economist at Tokyo's Fujitsu Research Institute.

Deflation—the steady drop in prices of goods, wages, and services—has many ill effects. Households are stuck paying off mortgages, car loans, and other debt even as their take-home pay has declined. Also, as housing values fall, consumers have smaller nest eggs for retirement. Companies, meanwhile, are unable to raise prices, which puts pressure on profits.

Yet the Japanese have discovered the benefits of deflation as well. Monthly pay dropped to an average 315,294 yen ($3,800) in 2009, the lowest level since the government began tracking wage data in 1990. "It's not like I'm promised any pay raises," says Momoko Noguchi. The 24-year-old Tokyo resident gets by on two part-time jobs by shopping for everything from nail polish to dinner plates at her local 100-yen outlet (the Japanese equivalent of an American dollar store), and she pays 400 yen or less for lunch. "I hope prices keep falling." Four out of five Japanese say higher costs would be "unfavorable," according to a central bank survey.

To help reverse a seven-year decline in same-store sales, McDonald's Holdings Japan, a unit of McDonald's (MCD), introduced a 100-yen menu in 2005. The chain's 100-yen hamburger sold for 210 yen in 1990. "We wanted our customers to know that we've changed," says Kazuyuki Hagiwara, Tokyo-based senior marketing manager at the company. Since the debut of the lower-priced menu, same-store sales have climbed every year. McDonald's Japan shares have returned 17 percent in the past three years.

Price cutting by companies has helped Japanese consumers adjust to deflation. The average household owns 1.4 cars and 2.4 color TVs, about a quarter more than in 1990, a Cabinet Office survey shows. Deflation has helped home buyers, too, by forcing prices down from their peaks in 1990: According to calculations based on yearly Land Ministry data, Japan's residential land prices have dropped by an average of 2.9 percent a year over the past two decades.

So is deflation a blessing in disguise? Not to analysts such as Richard Jerram, head of Asian economics at Macquarie Securities (MGU). He points out that as businesses cut prices to compete, it becomes harder to borrow and invest. "It's extremely corrosive," he says. Deflation, adds Jerram, will steadily sap Japan's nominal growth and deprive the government of tax revenue. Eventually, Japan may no longer be able to finance its borrowing. The country will then either have to default on debt that's about twice the size of the economy or devalue its currency to reduce the real value of liabilities. "That's the unavoidable endgame," says Jerram, who has analyzed the Japanese economy since 1987. "As long as it's in the future, everybody can pretend it's someone else's problem."

The bottom line: Although deflation ultimately poses a serious threat to Japan, ordinary consumers are benefiting from lower prices.
Erroneous Conclusions

It is painful to watch someone gather the facts then jump to the wrong conclusions.

Even worse than Ito's fallacious "bottom line" conclusion is the thought process from Richard Jerram at Macquarie Securities (MGU), supportive of that conclusion.

It would help if Jerram thought for 15 seconds (about the right things) before yapping nonsense. Japan is in debt to the tune of 200% of GDP because it squandered massive Japanese savings over the course of decades, in a foolish and futile fight against deflation.

Japan would not be at risk of default and would instead be sitting on a mountain of cash instead of a mountain of debt had it not squandered money building bridges to nowhere in a battle that should not have been fought, and clearly was not winnable in the first place.

Moreover, if prices are falling, they are falling for the government as well (at least they should be). Therein lay the problem. Governments want ever increasing amounts of revenue to support huge untenable, and needlessly growing bureaucracies, regardless of what prices and wages are doing.

That is what saps a country's strength. Yet, Jerram comes to the amazing conclusion that inability to collect higher taxes saps a country's strength.

The last time I checked, Toyota, Subaru, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda, and Honda were still in business and doing fine. So are Sony, Panasonic, Kyocera, Nippon, etc.

Since Ito never explained his bottom line "Although deflation ultimately poses a serious threat to Japan, ordinary consumers are benefiting from lower prices" I suspect it came from listening to Keynesian clowns like Jerram who has studied this problem for 24 years and failed to learn a damn thing.

The fact of the matter is there is nothing corrosive about deflation per se. Indeed falling prices and rising lifestyles as a result of increasing productivity should be expected.

However, there is something corrosive about going deep into debt that cannot be paid back. That is the situation Japan finds itself in today (primarily because the government listened to Keynesian and Monetarist jackasses who insisted that deflation was something that needed to be fought).

Of course the US (led by Bernanke), Europe (with its sovereign debt crisis), and Australia, Canada, and China (with their housing bubbles) are in the same sorry condition.

What cannot be paid back won't. That is the message of Japan. That is the message of Greece, and Ireland. That is the message in the US. That is the message in Australia, Canada, and China.

With so many messages and with savers wanting lower prices (please see Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie"), how the hell can people like Ito and Jerram get it 180 degrees wrong?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie"

Posted: 31 Jan 2011 12:15 AM PST

Here is an email from "Stephanie". She heard me talk about the economy on Coast-to-Coast AM radio with George Noory.

Stephanie writes ....
Hello Mish,

I don't know if you give advice, but I heard you on Coast-To-Coast and you seem to know what you are talking about. I am 65 years old, get $938 from Social Security, and this is all I live on every month.

I have a CD that is about $16,000 now and is providing $75 a month. In about a year that will stop because the interest has gone down so much. If you were me, what would you invest in?

I lost $2,000 in the stock market a few years ago and the way it is now it is rather scary. I don't know what else to even consider and when I ask my banker he seems to be at a loss too.

Any help you could offer would be a blessing. Thank you for your consideration and kindness.

Stephanie - Somewhere, USA
Clobbered by the Fed

Hi Stephanie

You and many others are getting clobbered by the policies of the Fed. Not only did taxpayers bail out the banks at taxpayer expense, Bernanke and the Fed continues to do so.

By holding interest rates low, the Fed is hurting everyone on fixed income with savings in the bank or CDs. You get almost no interest on your savings, and that is robbing you and everyone else like you.

Bernanke is hoping people like you gamble and invest in risky assets. Indeed, he is doing everything he can to force people into taking more risk.

Don't do it. It is not a prudent thing to do.

The stock market is extremely overvalued here and could easily decline hard. Indeed, I think it will at some point.

Emergency Fund in Cash

My straight forward advice to everyone is to have an emergency fund of at least a year's worth of living expenses in the bank before they invest in stocks, bonds, gold or anything other than short-term CDs or treasuries.

It is obvious that Bernanke's concern is doing what is best for banks. He shows no concern about the damage he is causing elsewhere.

Bernanke is a Coward Hiding Behind Mathematical Formulas

I wish I could get Bernanke in a room with you and everyone in your position, and take questions from you.

Bernanke will not do that because he is a coward. He hides behind mathematical formulas, the same ones I might point out that told him housing was not in a bubble, there was no risk of recession, and that the unemployment rate would not top 8%.

He did not know what he was doing then, and he certainly does not understand the risks now.

Moreover, his "Quantitative Easing" policies have helped fuel speculation in commodities, especially food and gasoline. That speculation is contributing not only to rising prices in the US, but even more so globally.

To be fair, there are some severe weather problems in other parts of the world that affect growing conditions and thus food prices. In addition, there is massive credit expansion in China and India that puts upward pressure on food and energy.

However, there is also little doubt that Bernanke has fueled commodity speculation with his low interest rate policies and that too has pushed prices higher.

Believe it or not, Bernanke is worried that prices might fall. I suspect you would love to see prices fall, and so would everyone else in your situation.

Unfortunately, Bernanke intends to keep interest rates low until prices go up to his liking, and then when prices do start rising, interest you earn on your CD will not keep up with prices.

Bear in mind, that the Fed excludes food and energy from the prices they monitor. They desperately want housing prices to rise. However, the Fed can make money available, but it cannot control where that money goes.

Serial Bubble Blowing

The Fed's loose money policies fueled a housing bubble last time, now money is pouring into commodities, junk bonds, and leveraged buyouts (once again). This is bound to end badly once again.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rates is still 9.4% officially, and much higher unofficially.

Fed's Policy Is Theft

Stephanie, it's a little known fact that inflation benefits those with first access to money, such as the banks, the wealthy (via rising asset prices), and the government (think rising sales taxes and property taxes when prices go up).

Everyone else gets screwed. You are right in the middle of the pack of those most hurt by the serial bubble blowing policies of the Fed.

Viewed this way, Bernanke's policies are nothing but theft, robbing the poor, for the benefit of banks and the wealthy.

This is why I support Congressman Ron Paul's effort to end the Fed.

No Good Solutions for Those on Fixed Income

Your dilemma is 1-year treasuries yield a mere .23%.

Unfortunately, I have no good investment solutions for you, because there are none. You are not suited for stock market risks, and if there is any chance you will need to use your savings any time soon, you cannot afford to risk being in long-term CDs.

Arguably the best thing for you to do is find a bank that has 1% or higher rates on savings accounts.

Avoid Fees

There are some other common-sense things you can do. For example, it is critical for you to avoid all fees. If you have fees on your checking account now, find a place that does not have them. Bankrate can help on CD rates, savings rates, and checking account rates.

Invest in a Freezer

I do not know whether you have a home or an apartment, but if you have room, get a suitably-sized freezer and only buy meat on sale. The price of meat on sale is frequently 50% or less of meat not on sale.

Wrapped properly, many food items will last a year or longer. Use freezer paper for roasts and date every package. Packaged bacon also freezes well. I only buy bacon when it is 2 for 1. If you are nimble, learn to cut your own chicken. If not, buy the cuts you like on sale and freeze those.

Buy ground beef on sale and make patties the size you like and freeze those. Pork chops freeze well too. I use good quality plastic wrap doubled up. Costco has excellent quality wrap in a large spool that will last a very long time. Get all the air pockets out or you will get freezer burn.

Vacuum packaged cheese also stores well. It needs to be refrigerated and can be frozen, but does not have to be frozen.

Buy storable commodities such as spaghetti, pinto beans, brown rice, etc. on sale. Try not to buy anything unless it is on sale. Then buy large quantities.

Complain to the Fed

If I had an email or Fax number for Ben Bernanke or the Fed I would post it. Unfortunately all I have is a link to a contact form. You can use that form to Contact Ben Bernanke and give him a piece of your mind.

Change the button on the form to "Comment for Board Members" and blast away. It will not do any good because the Fed does not care about the plight of those on fixed income, but it might make you feel better.

I hope some of these ideas help. Best wishes.

Good luck to you Stephanie.

For everyone else ... This does not change my stance on deflation. I think round II of a major credit crunch is likely. All of the structural problems remain and the global economy is at least as unbalanced as before, possibly more so. On a credit basis (which is what matters to those not retired and struggling on fixed income), I expect the US to dip in and out of deflation over a number of years as did Japan.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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