Central Perk: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

joi, 16 iunie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Consumer Spending Growth In China Fades; Spending a Mere 34% of GDP; Can China Fail Like Japan?
IMF "Ready and Willing" to Throw Away More Money; 10 Point Summary of Sorry State of Affairs; Market Repeatedly Calls Foolish Bluffs by IMF, ECB
Collapse in Philly Fed Manufacturing Index; Current Outlook, New Orders, Unfilled Orders in Contraction; Profit Squeeze is On
2-Year Greek Bond Yield Hits 28.15%; Investors Bet on Prospect of 'Greek Accident'

Consumer Spending Growth In China Fades; Spending a Mere 34% of GDP; Can China Fail Like Japan?

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 11:24 PM PDT

China and the US both desperately want consumer spending to grow. Instead, the Chinese economy has grown even more unbalanced.

China is increasingly reliant on fixed investment, yet there are few economically viable projects. Worse yet, China is in the midst of gigantic property bubbles that will soon pop.

Please consider Consumer Spending Fades in China Economy

At the Haiyang Zhuangshi Co. hardware store in Beijing, sales of paint and aluminum window frames are slowing, one sign of a diminished role for consumer spending in China that's foiling government objectives.

"It seems the peak days are gone," said owner Hu Mengbin, 42, whose daily revenue has dropped to about 3,000 yuan ($463) from as much as 4,000 yuan last year after China stepped up efforts to rein in home prices. "Between 2006 and 2008 when the property market was red hot, we could make quick money."

Hu's loss underlines the dilemma for Premier Wen Jiabao: his campaign to control inflation is undermining attempts to make consumers a bigger driver of the world's second-largest economy. Failure to lessen dependence on exports and investment spending leaves the nation more vulnerable to swings in external demand and subject to asset booms and busts.

Government data this week showed retail sales growth slowed to 16.9 percent in May, less than the average of the past five years and a figure that's inflated by soaring prices for food. By contrast, spending on fixed assets such as factories and property climbed 26 percent, excluding rural households, in the first five months, the fastest pace in almost a year.

Analysts at Capital Economics, a London-based research group, estimate that private consumption may have fallen to 34 percent of gross domestic product last year, the lowest level since China began opening its economy to market mechanisms more than three decades ago. Just 10 years ago, the share was 46 percent, Capital Economics calculates.

"Just at a time when the government in China and a lot of people elsewhere are hoping to see Chinese consumers step up to the plate, actually they've been staying away from shops," said Mark Williams, an economist in London with Capital Economics and a former adviser on China to the U.K. Treasury. "The trend over the past couple of years has been relentlessly downward."

Consumption would have to grow three percentage points faster than GDP to reach 40 percent of the economy within five years, according to Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University in Beijing.

"We would need the highest consumption growth ever recorded," Pettis said. "In the short term we're not going to see a lot of change."

Beijing store owner Hu isn't expecting any quick turnaround either. "Making money is getting harder this year," he said as he stood in his 20-square-meter shop. "Business is slack."

China Can Fail Like Japan

Please consider How China could yet fail like Japan by Martin Wolf

Until 1990, Japan was the most successful large economy in the world. Almost nobody predicted what would happen to it in the succeeding decades. Today, people are yet more in awe of the achievements of China. Is it conceivable that this colossus could learn that spectacular success is a precursor of surprising failure? The answer is: yes.

Premier Wen Jiabao has himself described the economy as "unstable, unbalanced, unco-ordinated and ultimately unsustainable". The nature of the challenge was made evident to me during discussions of the 12th five year plan at the China Development Forum 2011 in Beijing in March. This new plan calls for a sharp change in the pace and structure of economic growth. In particular, growth is forecast to decline to just 7 per cent a year. More important, the economy is expected to rebalance from investment, towards consumption and, partly as a result, from manufacturing towards services.

The question is whether these shifts can be managed smoothly. Michael Pettis of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management has argued that they cannot be. His argument rests on the view that in the investment-led growth model, repression of household incomes plays a central role by subsidising that investment. Removing that repression – a necessary condition for faster growth of consumption – risks causing a sharp slowdown in output and a still bigger slowdown in investment. Growth is driven as much by subsidised expansion of capacity as by the profitable matching of supply to final demand. This will end with a bump.

Investment has indeed grown far faster than GDP. From 2000 to 2010, growth of gross fixed investment averaged 13.3 per cent, while growth of private consumption averaged 7.8 per cent. Over the same period the share of private consumption in GDP collapsed from 46 per cent to a mere 34 per cent, while the share of fixed investment rose from 34 per cent to 46 per cent.

If this pattern of growth is to reverse, as the government wishes, the growth of investment must fall well below that of GDP. This is what happened in Japan in the 1990s, with dire results. The thesis advanced by Prof Pettis is that a forced investment strategy will normally end with such a bump. The question is when.

That is an excellent article by Martin Wolf. Inquiring minds will want to take a closer look.

Bearish on China

Fixed investment in China is going to collapse at some point. When it does, it will take China's massive property bubble with it. Losses at Chinese banks will be staggering.

The ripple effect will hit commodity prices which in turn will hit Australia and Canada.

Expect more unrest.

Interestingly, China is in the midst of a surge in unrest already. Please see Wave of Violent Protests, Rioting, Bombings Hits China; Expect More Riots When China's Credit Bubble Pops, Exposing Mountains of Fraud for details.

I see no reason to be bullish on China or the Yuan either.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

IMF "Ready and Willing" to Throw Away More Money; 10 Point Summary of Sorry State of Affairs; Market Repeatedly Calls Foolish Bluffs by IMF, ECB

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 11:43 AM PDT

Inquiring minds are making note of the current state of affairs in Greece. Here is a quick 10-point synopsis.

Current Sorry State of Greek Affairs

Greece did not meet the IMF's criteria for more aid
The Greek government is collapsing
The Greek prime minister threatened to resign
An emergence meeting of the Greek Parliament could not gather support for more austerity measures
An emergency meeting of EU ministers produced "no results". The EU has no consensus about what to do
Two-year interest rates in Greece topped 30%
Germany wants bond holders to take a haircut, France does not
Greek unions are on strike
Riots and violence have escalated
Credit default swaps are pricing in an 80% chance of default

Logic Useless

Logic would dictate that given the current sorry state of affairs in Greece that the IMF would not be willing to lend Greece more money. Indeed point number 1 alone would seem to be sufficient to settle the hash.

However, once must not attempt to apply logic to decisions made by the IMF, by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, or by Euro-Zone officials in general.

IMF 'Ready to Continue Support' for Greece

Please consider IMF 'Ready to Continue Support' for Greece

"We stand ready to continue our support for Greece subject to adoption of the economic policy reforms agreed with the Greek authorities," Caroline Atkinson, the director of IMF external relations, said in an e-mailed statement today.

"Progress is being made in the discussions to ensure the full financing of the program, and we anticipate a positive outcome on this at the next Eurogroup meeting," she said.

Progress? What Progress?

Progress is being made? What progress? Where? Will the Greek government go along or has the Greek government had enough of these austerity measures?

Caroline Atkinson also said that the IMF board will still have to approve the "conclusions of the pending program review."

There is nothing to approve. The papers are signed, stamped, and sealed already. The only open question, and it's a major one, is "Will Greece Go Along?"

Logic Cannot Be Used on Pathological Liars

Attempts to apply logic to what pathological liars say is useless. How can you possibly believe that known liars will do what they say?

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie," said Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the regular meetings of eurozone finance ministers. The IMF, the ECB, and the Fed are the same.

To get things correct you cannot believe a thing pathological liars at the IMF, ECB, and Fed say. Instead, simply bet they will kick the can down the road until the market kicks it back in their faces, smashing some teeth in the process. Brute force and a lick in the teeth by the market is the only thing liars react to. Even then, it takes multiple kicks before they get the message.

In regards to politicians, in many instances they are kicked out of office, never understanding the message at all.

Market Repeatedly Calls Foolish Bluffs by IMF, ECB

Recall that Trichet loaded up the ECB's balance sheet with garbage from Greece and Ireland. Trichet thought that bluff would lead the markets to accept his idea that Greece would not default. His move stabilized bonds for about 2 weeks. Then the market kicked that can back in Trichet's face, bruising his forehead, but unfortunately leaving his arrogance intact.

More recently, ECB executive board member Juergen Stark threatened the "nuclear" option of refusing to accept Greek debt as collateral if there was a restructuring of Greek debt. This was a foolish bluff that was supposed to bring the market into line.

Instead, yields and CDS shot up and continued higher. In simple terms the market kicked that can back into the ECB's face.

The bluff was not remotely believable. The ECB would trash its own balance sheet if it did what Stark suggested. Moreover, it would also destroy the balance sheets of French banks who are the primary bag-holders of Greek garbage.

Solid Kick in the Teeth in Progress

A solid kick in the teeth of the ECB and IMF appears to be in progress right now. However, Jean-Claude Trichet, the IMF, and Christian Lagarde (running to head the IMF), still have not gotten the message.

Expect to see more teeth kicked out in the weeks or months to come if the fools at the ECB, IMF, and EU try to kick the can down the road one more time.

Running Greek Recap

Investors Bet on Accident: 2-Year Greek Bond Yield Hits 28.15%; Investors Bet on Prospect of 'Greek Accident'

Papandreou's Days Numbered: Riots Images from Greece; Prime Minister to Reshuffle Greek Cabinet, Seek Vote of Confidence on New Government

Papandreou Offers to Resign: Opposition Tells Greek Prime Minister to Step Down; Papandreou Offers to Resign With Strings Attached

Emergency Session Fails: ECB Divorced From Reality; What is US Exposure to EU Mess?

Irish Finance Minister Flip-Flop: Yesterday Noonan Vowed to Screw Irish Taxpayers; Today Seeks Haircuts on Senior Irish Bonds; Lessons From Iceland

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Collapse in Philly Fed Manufacturing Index; Current Outlook, New Orders, Unfilled Orders in Contraction; Profit Squeeze is On

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 09:18 AM PDT

Economic activity continues to slow nearly everywhere you look. Today's look-see is in the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey.

Responses to the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity weakened in June. The survey's indicators for activity and new orders turned negative this month, while indicators for shipments and employment fell but remained slightly positive. Indicators for prices show a continuing trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity fell sharply in June, recording its lowest reading in 31 months.

Price Pressures Show Moderation

Indexes for prices paid and prices received declined from May and continue a trend of moderating price pressures in recent months. The prices paid index declined sharply, by 22 points this month. Still, 37 percent of the firms reported higher prices for inputs this month, and 10 percent reported a decline. On balance, firms reported a slight rise in prices for manufactured goods: 17 percent reported higher prices for their own goods this month; 12 percent reported price reductions. The prices received index decreased 12 points, its second consecutive monthly decline.

Six‐Month Indicators Fall Sharply Again The future general activity index decreased 14 points this month and has now dropped 61 points over the last three months (see Chart). The indexes for future new orders and shipments also declined, decreasing 9 and 14 points, respectively. The index for future employment fell 17 points and has declined 32 points in the last two months. Still, slightly more firms expect to increase employment over the next six months (21 percent) than expect to decrease employment (16 percent).

June Business Conditions vs. May

click on any chart or table to see sharper image

In Contraction

General Business Conditions plunged 11.6 points to -7.7
New Orders plunged 13 points to -7.6
Unfilled Orders fell 8.5 points to -16.3
Delivery Times plunged 18.2 points to -16.3
Inventories fell 3.1 points to -8.5

Price, Profit Squeeze

Prices Paid plunged 21.5 points to +26.8
Prices Received plunged 12.4 points to +4.4

Prices paid fell more than prices received but from a much higher level. Prices received is on the verge of contraction. A price squeeze (profit squeeze) is on.

Business Conditions Expectations 6 Months from Now

Employment Outlook

Looking ahead 6 months the survey is positive, but barely. Unfilled orders, delivery times, and inventory are currently in contraction and expected to remain so. The average work week is projected to contract.

If it plays out this way, and I suggest it too optimistic, wages and hiring will be weak at best.

More on the Profit Squeeze

The special questions for June 2011 are interesting.

More businesses than not are unable to pass on price hikes. However, businesses had to pay increased prices for items, especially transportation costs.

This was an anemic report from every angle, yet treasuries are barely up.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

2-Year Greek Bond Yield Hits 28.15%; Investors Bet on Prospect of 'Greek Accident'

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 01:02 AM PDT

Greek, Irish, and Portuguese yields are at or flirting with new all-time highs.

Moreover, things are not looking pretty for Spanish and Italian bonds. Both trade at the upper end of their respective ranges yet German bond yields have fallen since the second week in April.

The prospect of a messy default in Greece is rising, even though it appears the IMF will hold its nose and give Greece another trance of money.

Credit default swaps price in a 75% chance of default in 5 years. However, Investors Now Bet On a 'Greek Accident' Within a Year.

A new bet has been placed on the Greek debt crisis. It backs a growing view among investors that Athens may be about to suffer a messy default that could spark a run on the country's banks and a deeper euro zone crisis.

One senior investor said: "There is a meaningful chance of a Greek accident this summer. That involves a hard default and big losses for investors, which could have very worrying repercussions for the euro zone."

These fears have prompted bets on the so-called "accident scenario", which involves buying one-year credit default swaps that would pay out big profits in the event of a hard default, typically a non-payment of loans, in the next 12 months.

Although these funds have placed only a small amount of money on these bets, the mere fact that they are using them highlights the growing risks for the euro zone.

Greek two-year bond yields, which have an inverse relationship with prices, lurched 160 basis points higher, one of the biggest daily moves of the year, to a euro-era record of 28.02 percent.

Greek five-year CDS leapt to a high of 1,700 basis points, or a cost of $1.7 million to insure $10 million of debt annually over five years. Greek CDS is also pricing a 75 percent chance of a default by the country over the next five years – it was about 45 percent at the start of the year.

Irish and Portuguese two-year yields and five-year CDS also jumped to record highs. More worryingly, Spanish and Italian bond markets were hit too, with Spanish bond yields closing in on highs last seen in 2000.

Inquiring minds may wish to consider some charts of 2-year sovereign debt yields.

2-Year Yield Germany - 1.47%

2-Year Yield France - 1.75%

2-Year Yield Italy - 3.05%

2-Year Yield Spain - 3.52%

2-Year Yield Ireland - 12.28%

2-Year Yield Portugal - 12.44%

2-Year Yield Greece - 28.15%

If there was no risk of default as ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet insists, there would be no investor preference for German bonds over Greek bonds, Portuguese bonds, or Irish bonds.

Instead there is a significant difference between German and French bonds and the bonds of every other country.

Spain is too big to bail and Italy is much bigger still. All hell is going to break loose when yields in Spain or Italy rapidly rise, and it's only a matter of time before they do.

Spanish 10-Year bonds are flirting with disaster right now.

10-Year Yield Spain - 5.62%