Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Interactive Map: Job Gains and Losses in the "Recovery" by Job Type (Healthcare, Education, Mining, Construction, Finance, Real Estate, etc)
• Italian Bank Stocks Plunge, Trading Suspended; Juncker Principle in Action
• What Changed? Nothing; Bond Market Displays Big Yawn

Interactive Map: Job Gains and Losses in the "Recovery" by Job Type (Healthcare, Education, Mining, Construction, Finance, Real Estate, etc) Posted: 24 Jun 2011 10:19 AM PDT This is the second part of a two-part interactive map series on jobs. For part one, please see Interactive Map: Employment History Since 2001 by Job Type (Healthcare, Education, Mining, Construction, Finance, Real Estate, etc) Part two has a focus on job creation and losses during the economic recovery. Please consider the following interactive map, using Tableau Software, with data courtesy of Economic Modeling Specialists. This interactive map may take a bit to load. Please give it time on a slow connection. Note on Economic Modeling Data "Our data is used by many to research and understand regional employment trends and dynamics. It's composed of comprehensive information on industries, occupations, demographics — as well as things like occupational skills, education, training, and even the names and size of companies in your region broken down by industry. To do this we link nearly 90 data sources — from federal sources like the Bureau of Labor Statistics to state and private sources. If you've ever worked with this sort of information, you know it can be hard to collect and present. It's also often incomplete and outdated. So we organize the data, bring it up to date, and build software and reports around it so you can put it to use more quickly and effectively" Jobs Gained or Lost Since Dec 31, 2007 Industry 2008 2009 2010 2011 Health Care 461,860 792,679 1,023,907 1,278,794 Finance & Insurance 323,802 629,082 490,384 444,530 Mining & Oil 195,813 345,116 337,917 422,752 Educational Services 121,337 195,899 236,766 295,498 Government 358,591 451,680 398,853 90,393 Arts & Entertainment 92,418 108,263 77,181 65,855 Management 60,985 25,371 16,323 26,615 Utilities 13,019 20,773 13,771 11,275 Professional 203,493 -107,607 -164,853 -39,124 Agriculture & Forestry -18,909 -26,033 -33,643 -71,928 Other Services -30,456 -221,109 -246,875 -82,177 Food & Lodging 71,681 -242,538 -273,658 -145,099 Information -30,863 -203,185 -299,866 -331,269 Real Estate -76,068 -232,452 -335,391 -359,874 Transportation -107,538 -501,697 -559,415 -486,346 Admin & Support -389,951 -1,226,173 -1,097,484 -774,404 Retail & Wholesale -428,934 -1,759,253 -1,977,146 -1,854,109 Manufacturing -478,023 -2,072,959 -2,415,322 -2,290,390 Construction -612,184 -1,955,402 -2,468,184 -2,519,538 Totals -269,927 -5,979,545 -7,276,735 -6,318,546 Jobs Gained or Lost vs. Year Ago Industry 2008 2009 2010 2011 Totals -269,927 -5,709,618 -1,297,190 958,189 Admin & Support -389,951 -836,222 128,689 323,080 Health Care 461,860 330,819 231,228 254,887 Other Services -30,456 -190,653 -25,766 164,698 Food & Lodging 71,681 -314,219 -31,120 128,559 Professional 203,493 -311,100 -57,246 125,729 Manufacturing -478,023 -1,594,936 -342,363 124,932 Retail & Wholesale -428,934 -1,330,319 -217,893 123,037 Mining & Oil 195,813 149,303 -7,199 84,835 Transportation -107,538 -394,159 -57,718 73,069 Educational Services 121,337 74,562 40,867 58,732 Management 60,985 -35,614 -9,048 10,292 Utilities 13,019 7,754 -7,002 -2,496 Arts & Entertainment 92,418 15,845 -31,082 -11,326 Real Estate -76,068 -156,384 -102,939 -24,483 Information -30,863 -172,322 -96,681 -31,403 Agriculture & Forestry -18,909 -7,124 -7,610 -38,285 Finance & Insurance 323,802 305,280 -138,698 -45,854 Construction -612,184 -1,343,218 -512,782 -51,354 Government 358,591 93,089 -52,827 -308,460 Job Table Notes Data is as of May 31, 2011 2011 comparison is to December 31, 2010 Job gains in 2011 are higher than reported by the BLS. I see no reason to believe the BLS. Since December 2007, the economy has lost 6,318,546 jobs In 2011, the big job gainer is not healthcare but "administration" Healthcare and Education are the two bright spots throughout the recession. The 6.3 million jobs lost since the beginning of 2008 is deceptively low. The Economy should have been gaining 1.8 milling jobs a year, not losing jobs. In other words, the economy is down 10 to 12 million jobs from where it should be. Thanks to Ross Perez at Tableau Software and also to Economic Modeling Specialists for this post. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Italian Bank Stocks Plunge, Trading Suspended; Juncker Principle in Action Posted: 24 Jun 2011 07:13 AM PDT Italy, the big elephant in the room that the EU does not even see yet, may be waking up. Please consider, Italian Banks Plunge on Debt Concern Italian banks slumped in Milan trading amid concern the European debt crisis may spread just as lenders face scrutiny from regulators over capital levels. UniCredit SpA (UCG), Italy's biggest bank, and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), the second-largest, led lenders lower, tumbling as much as 8.9 percent and 7.2 percent respectively. Both stocks were briefly suspended after breaching limits on intraday swings. Italian 10-year bonds fell, increasing the additional yield investors demand to hold the securities instead of benchmark German bunds to the most since the euro was introduced in 1999. "Contagion fears keep re-emerging as long as credible, lasting solutions in Greece are pending," said Christian Weber, a Munich-based strategist at UniCredit. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said today the country's banks are "well capitalized." Speaking at a summit of European leaders in Brussels, Berlusconi said he wasn't worried about Moody's comments about the country's banks. The European Banking Authority yesterday updated its stress tests to take into account extra trading losses that banks may face on their holdings of sovereign debt from crisis-hit European Union countries including Greece. Italian banks are also seeking to raise money from investors to bolster capital. Unione di Banche Italiane ScpA (UBI), Italy's fourth-biggest bank, fell as much as 5 percent to 3.628 euros. The lender may struggle to lure buyers to its 1 billion- euro ($1.4 billion) rights offering, which closes today. The bank is offering investors eight new shares at 3.808 euros for every 21 held. Juncker Principle in Action Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi appears to be following the "Juncker Principle". Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg PM and Head Euro-Zone Finance Minister says "When it becomes serious, you have to lie". Italian banks are in a scramble to raise capital even though the prime minister assures us that its banks are "well capitalized." Actions speak louder than lies. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

What Changed? Nothing; Bond Market Displays Big Yawn Posted: 24 Jun 2011 04:51 AM PDT Those watching the stock market ramp yesterday might be wondering if something meaningful had happened. Nothing did. The EU agreed to give Greece more money, but everyone knew they would anyway. Let's take a look at sovereign bond spreads to see what they think about the non-news. 10-Year Debt Greece - Yield 16.8% 10-Year Debt Spain - Yield 5.6% 10-Year Debt Ireland - Yield 11.89% 10-Year Debt Portugal - Yield 11.37% 10-Year Debt Italy - Yield 4.94% In case of differences between charts and listed values, go with listed values. Bloomberg interactive charts are delayed. Listed values are as of 6:40 AM Central 2011-06-24. Big Yawn The stock market reacted as if there was news, the bond market put out the big yawn. Greek yields came down slightly, but that is simply reflective of the can-kicking exercise. Spanish yields essentially did nothing, while Irish and Portuguese yields hit new highs. Spain and Italy are poised to smack Trichet, the ECB, EU, and the IMF the smack across the face and it's just a matter of time before they do. Meanwhile the action in Irish and Portuguese bonds shows the immense stress did not go away. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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