joi, 28 iulie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Boehner Humiliated, Cancels Vote, Stock Futures Tank; Stocks and Treasuries Unusually Correlated

Posted: 28 Jul 2011 10:00 PM PDT

Thursday morning Bloomberg reported House Majority Leader Cantor Predicts House Republicans Will Pass Debt Plan Today
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor predicted Republicans would pass a debt-limit increase plan today as some freshman lawmakers pledged support for the measure in the face of unified Democratic opposition in the Senate.
Vote Cancelled

Kiss that prediction of Cantor goodbye. Thursday evening Republicans put off vote on debt limit because Boehner clearly lacks the votes.
An intensive endgame at hand, Republican leaders abruptly postponed a vote Thursday night on legislation to avert a threatened government default and slice federal spending by nearly $1 trillion.

"The votes obviously were not there," conceded Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif., after Speaker John Boehner and the leadership had spent hours trying to corral the support of rebellious conservatives.

The decision created fresh turmoil as divided government struggled to head off an unprecedented default that would leave the Treasury without the funds needed to pay all its bills. Administration officials say Tuesday is the deadline for Congress to act.

Senate Democrats stood by to scuttle the bill -- if it ever got them -- as a way of forcing Republicans to accept changes sought by Obama.

Based on public statements by lawmakers themselves, it appeared that five of some two dozen holdouts were from South Carolina. The state is also represented by Sen. Jim DeMint, who has solid ties to tea party groups and is a strong critic of compromising on the debt issue.

Others said conservatives wanted additional steps taken to try to ensure that a constitutional balanced-budget amendment would be sent to the states for ratification. As drafted, the legislation merely requires both houses of Congress to vote on the issue.

Even before the House voted, Reid served notice he would stage a vote to kill the legislation almost instantly.

"No Democrat will vote for a short-term Band-Aid that would put our economy at risk and put the nation back in this untenable situation a few short months from now," he said.
Boehner Humiliated

Boehner was humiliated and justifiably so. He had nothing to gain and everything to lose by attempting to ram-rod a gaseous bill through the House that was guaranteed dead-on-arrival in the Senate.

Majority leader Cantor made matters worse by predicting passage.

Stock Futures Tank in Unusual Correlation with Treasuries

Please consider U.S. S&P 500 Futures Retreat as McCarthy Says No Vote on Debt Plan Tonight
Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell after the U.S. House of Representatives postponed a vote to increase the nation's debt limit, boosting concern that the lawmakers are far from an agreement to avoid default.

S&P 500 futures expiring in September lost 0.8 percent to 1,286.9 at 12:28 p.m. in Tokyo. The decline suggests the U.S. equity benchmark may extend its 3.3 percent slump from the past four days when markets open in New York.

Stocks and Treasuries are moving in tandem twice as often as they normally do, a sign investors are growing convinced the U.S. will lose its AAA credit rating and that an impasse among lawmakers may spur losses in both markets. The S&P 500 has risen or fallen together with 10-year Treasury notes 80 percent of the time in the last 10 days, compared with the average since 2000 of 41 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Not Raising the Debt Ceiling Would be Blessing

I am sticking to what I said in Not Raising the Debt Ceiling Would be Blessing; Debt Limit Analysis; Interactive Map, You Decide What Not To Pay
All things considered, especially since Boehner's credibility is gone in his latest gaseous proposal, the best thing for Congress to do would be to NOT hike the debt ceiling and work out a credible plan over the next month.
Is Mish a "closet Liberal-humanist?"

In response to that post I received a humorous email from "BC" who wrote...
Mish, your choices reveal your empathy! Are you a closet Liberal-humanist?!

Your choices favor the elder working class, the working-class and poor ill, unemployed, poor and "food challenged", and imperial legionaries and auxiliaries against the corporate-statists!!!

Are you one of those maladjusted working-class types who just doesn't "get it"?!

Wink , wink ;-) ;-).
To see my choices as to what I would cut and to make your own choices about what to do if the debt ceiling is not raised, click on the above link for an interactive map.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Not Raising the Debt Ceiling Would be Blessing; Debt Limit Analysis; Interactive Map, You Decide What Not To Pay

Posted: 28 Jul 2011 01:03 PM PDT

As the chances of a gaseous Congressional compromise to do nothing about deficit reduction grow larger, inquiring minds wonder just what might happen if nothing passes.

Contrary to popular belief, the US would not default. Troops would still be paid. Medicare and Medicaid would not stop. The Bipartisan Policy Center has a nice analysis in a PDF on Debt Limit Analysis.

NO "SILVER BULLETS" TO EXTEND DATE



  • Our analysis also shows that the X Date will fall between August 2 and August 9. On July 1st, Treasury publicly reaffirmed their estimate of the X Date as August 2
  • The 14thAmendment does not provide a reasonable basis for challenging the constitutionality of the debt ceiling. The Administration will not attack the debt ceiling on this basis
  • Treasury has no secret bag of tricks to finance government operations past August 2. Treasury will not attempt to "firesale" assets during a crisis.
  • Other ideas are impractical, illegal and/or inappropriate (gold loans, IOUs)
  • There is no precedent; all other debt limit impasses have been resolved without passing the X Date
  • The government shutdown of 1995 –96 does not provide a precedent

Prioritization



Obama's, Geithner's, and Bernanke's statements about default simply are not credible. Nor are threats of cutoffs to military pay or Social Security. Indeed those totals allow Medicaid and Medicare to be paid.

The PDF covers alternate scenarios of what can and cannot be paid.

Interactive Map, You Decide What Not To Pay

I contend there is easily a month or more to work out a better deal. There are many programs we can easily do away with that should not be funded at all.

Please consider You choose: who gets paid (and who doesn't)
On August 2, the federal government will not have enough cash to pay for all of its programs and obligations. The U.S. will take in a total of $172.4 billion in revenue during the month, but its total payments exceed $306 billion, resulting in a $134 billion shortfall. If a debt-limit increase is not approved, the U.S. Treasury will have to choose among 80 million monthly payments and prioritize which programs are funded and which ones are not.
Mish Choices



click on chart for sharper image

As you can see, I have $30.6 billion to spare.

The first thing TO pay is interest on the national debt. It is non-payment of interest that would constitute default. Given $29 billion is easily payable, talk of default if Congress does nothing is the height of silliness.

The first thing to NOT pay should be congressional salaries.

As you can clearly see there are many things that would be a benefit to not pay, and never pay again.

Things to Not Pay and Never Pay Again

  • Department of Education - $20.2 Billion
  • Health and Human Services Grants - $8.1 Billion
  • HUD - $6.7 Billion
  • Department of Energy - $3.5 Billion
  • Department of Labor - $1.3 Billion
  • Small Business Administration - $0.3 Billion
  • Other Spending - $52.8 Billion

Clearly those things would have to be phased out, but the total of those things is a whopping $92.9 billion. That "Other Spending" category may have some essentials, but certainly most of it is not. Also bear in mind, I have $30.6 billion to spread around as needed. Some can go to salaries, but certainly not salaries of Congress.

In contrast, please see Boehner's Credibility Gone in Revised Proposal; Boehner Tells Congress to "Get Your Ass in Line"; Best Deal Republicans Can Get? for Boehner's revised cop-out.

All things considered, especially since Boehner's credibility is gone in his latest gaseous proposal, the best thing for Congress to do would be to NOT hike the debt ceiling and work out a credible plan over the next month.

Addendum:

The link at the top has been changed.

I received an email from Michael Stubel at the Bipartisan Policy Institute thanking me for the post and sending out an updated link.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Boehner's Credibility Gone in Revised Proposal; Boehner Tells Congress to "Get Your Ass in Line"; Best Deal Republicans Can Get?

Posted: 28 Jul 2011 10:54 AM PDT

It was bad enough when Boehner proposed a $3 Trillion deficit cutting proposal that the CBO said would only cut the deficit by a mere $850 billion.

Please see Rating the Obama, Reid, and Boehner Deficit Reduction Plans on Mish's 10-Point Credibility Scale for details.

However, one can make excuses for a "one-time" mistake. However when you submit a second plan that the CBO says will only cut the deficit by $950 billion you lose all credibility. Nonetheless, Boehner tells Congress ...

"Get Your Ass In Line"

Bloomberg reports Boehner Revises Debt Proposal as Aug. 2 Nears
Republican leaders were moving ahead with plans to vote on the measure tomorrow, less than one week before a potential U.S. default Aug. 2, and sought to ease party members' concerns that it wouldn't cut spending enough. The Congressional Budget Office said Boehner's new plan would cut $915 billion in spending over a decade, still short of the $2.2-trillion Senate plan.

Boehner, when asked by radio host Laura Ingraham whether he told members at a closed-door meeting today to get "your A-word in line" behind his debt bill, said: "I sure did. Listen, this is time to do what is doable."

Boehner's plan would promise another debt-limit showdown in the 2012 election year unless Republicans and Democrats agree by the end of this year to reduce deficits. President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats insist on extending the nation's borrowing authority through the 2012 elections, saying continued uncertainty would harm financial markets.

An analysis by the nonpartisan CBO of Boehner's revised plan said it would cut spending by $915 billion, compared with $850 billion for his original plan. This still was less than the $1.2 trillion advertised by party leaders for an initial round of cuts, which prompted leaders to cancel today's scheduled House vote on the bill.
Boehner's Credibility Gone In Second Gaseous Proposal

The best Boehner could come with over the course of 10 full years, is another $65 Billion! My dead grandmother could find more than that.

With that gaseous proposal, Boehner's credibility is burnt toast.

Moreover, the Senate will likely reject any of these proposals of Boehner that require a balanced budget amendment. So what is the point other than to put on a ridiculous show?

It would be one thing if his plan contained debt reductions of substance. But in two attempts, Boehner could only find a mere $95 billion a year in cuts when the deficit is a shocking $1.4 trillion.

On my 10-point credibility scale, Boehner passed #7 "Nauseous" and is now solidly in the #8 spot of "Gaseous". The next step is "Imaginary" where President Obama's nonexistent plan sits.

Governor Chris Christie Blasts Obama

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie blasted Obama for not having a plan, telling the president ""You Can't Lead From Behind".

Please see Chris Christie on Obama's Unwillingness to Submit a Deficit Plan "You Can't Lead From Behind" for details and a video.

Exercise in Futility

Meanwhile in an exercise in futility Boehner Moves Ahead on Debt.
House Republican leaders pleaded with their recalcitrant rank and file Thursday to back a plan to stave off an unprecedented government default next week. The House vote would bring President Barack Obama and congressional leaders one step closer to the endgame before Tuesday's deadline.

Republicans are seeking deep spending cuts in exchange for raising the nation's $14.3 trillion debt limit. The White House has threatened to veto the House GOP bill even if it makes it through the Senate, where it faces unanimous opposition among Senate Democrats. Still, getting the newly modified House plan passed on Thursday was seen as an important step toward the process of finding a compromise between the House and Senate proposals.

In a closed-door GOP meeting just hours before a scheduled vote, Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, made headway in getting toward the 217 votes necessary to pass his plan in the House. No Democrats were expected to support it. Boehner told the Republicans he expected to round up enough votes but was not there yet.

"But today is the day," he said, according to people in the room.

"I think it's the best deal we can get," said Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Ohio, who said he had dropped his opposition. Rep. Walter Jones, R-N.C., said he would back the measure to ensure that Boehner "has a seat at the table" for the endgame negotiations.
Best Deal You Can Get?

Notice the rank and file starting to cave in to Boehner's gaseous proposal. Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Ohio called it "the best deal we can get."

No it's not. It's not even the best deal you can't get. The Senate will not go along, so there is nothing to get.

As long as you are going to submit proposals you can't get, you may as well make it a good one. $950 billion over 10 years is not a good deal. It's not even a down payment on a good deal, and with that, Boehner just pissed away his credibility.

In the end, something will pass. But it will not do a damn thing credible to reduce the deficit. Reid's plan and Boehner's plan are both back-loaded.

Republicans had a golden opportunity to attempt to extract some major concessions in return for tiny tax concessions. Instead, they are going to settle for nothing. This fiasco is exactly why Republicans need someone like Chris Christie running for president. No one else has managed to show any leadership.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Italy Bonds Smacked in Selloff, Yields Now Approach Spain; Vote of "No Confidence" on Debt Plan

Posted: 28 Jul 2011 09:32 AM PDT

Investors wasted not time in a vote of no confidence on the latest debt package supposed to save Europe. 10-year Spanish government bonds are back above 6% and yields on Italian government bonds are close behind.

Bloomberg reports Italian Bonds Decline After Borrowing Costs Rise at Nation's Debt Sale
Italian bonds fell for a second day, increasing the yield spread over German bunds, after the nation's borrowing costs rose at a sale of 10-year debt and Standard & Poor's said Greece risks further defaults.

Italy's 10-year yield surged to the most in more than a week amid speculation a probe into a former aide of Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti may force him to step down. German yields fell to near a five-month low versus their U.S. counterparts as American lawmakers pushed conflicting plans to raise the nation's debt ceiling. Bunds rose for fifth day, the longest streak since April.

Italian Auction

Italy sold 2.7 billion euros of its 10-year benchmark security, less than the maximum target of 3 billion euros. The debt was priced to yield 5.77 percent, higher than 4.94 percent the last time the securities were sold on June 28, and drew bids for 1.38 times the securities on offer, compared with 1.33 times. In six sales of 10-year bonds this year, the average bid- to-cover ratio was 1.42 and the average yield was 4.81 percent.

"With Italy investors have recognised that the debt ratio is 120 percent" of gross domestic product, said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. "That's very high. Any country really above 80 ought to be getting concerned and looking at ways of bringing down that ratio. When you're above 100, that's flashing red signals. As well, in Italy you've had very weak economic growth."

Irish bonds advanced for a third day after an S&P report said some provisions of the EU's rescue plan would help protect Ireland and Portugal.
Italy 10-Year Government Bonds



Spain 10-Year Government Bonds



Vote of "No Confidence"

Although yields on Italian and Spanish debt are off the highs of the day, the direction is crystal clear. The proper way to look at trends of Spain and Italy is as a vote of no confidence in the latest plan, not as a vote of confidence on Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti .

Yields on Portuguese and Irish debt fell, supposedly on the belief the latest debt deal will lower borrowing costs. It won't. The S&P''s statement "some provisions of the EU's rescue plan would help protect Ireland and Portugal" is laughable.

There is no way the EU's EFSF, the European Financial Stability Facility, can cover Spain, let alone Italy.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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