Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• "Made-in-China" Only 2.7% of U.S. Spending; Really? What Does It Mean? Inflationists Take Note
• Spain Pressured by Letter from Trichet; More on Agricultural Trade Wars; Which Comes First, Harmony or Workable Currency Unions?
• Swiss Government and Swiss National Bank in "Intense" Talks on Currency Target for Swiss Franc; Talk is Cheap
• Growing Gloom for States and Cities; Who is to Blame? What About Solutions?
• Stanford Offers Free Robotics and Artificial Courses; 10,000 Already Sign Up

"Made-in-China" Only 2.7% of U.S. Spending; Really? What Does It Mean? Inflationists Take Note Posted: 14 Aug 2011 10:44 PM PDT For all the political bickering and scapegoating of China, 'Made in China' ranks only 2.7% of U.S. spending Convinced that everything you buy these days has a Made-in-China label? Then you aren't paying attention. Things made in the U.S.A. still dominate the American marketplace, according to a new study by economists at the San Francisco Federal Reserve. Goods and services from China accounted for only 2.7% of U.S. personal consumption spending in 2010, according to the report titled "The U.S. Content of 'Made in China.' " About 88.5% of U.S. spending last year was on American-made products and services. "On average, of every dollar spent on an item labeled 'Made in China,' 55 cents goes for services produced in the United States," the report said. It would have been nice to have a link to the Fed report. Missing links is one of my pet peeves. News organizations in general only link to themselves. So do many bloggers. I am tired of it. Let's do our own report instead. US GDP On July 29, 2011 the BEA gave the Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2011 (Advance Estimate) as follows "Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 3.7 percent, or $136.0 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $15,003.8 billion." China Trade On August 11, 2011 the US census bureau reported Goods and Services Deficit Increases in June 2011 The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $53.1 billion in June from $50.8 billion (revised) in May, as exports decreased more than imports. Balance of Trade China's portion of the trade deficit was $26.7 billion. Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted) The goods deficit with Canada increased from $2.7 billion in May to $2.8 billion in June. Exports decreased $0.3 billion (primarily fuel oil, passenger cars, and fertilizers) to $24.2 billion, while imports decreased $0.1 billion (primarily nonmonetary gold, petroleum products, and fertilizers) to $27.1 billion. The goods deficit with China increased from $25.0 billion in May to $26.7 billion in June. Exports decreased $0.1 billion (primarily raw cotton, passenger cars, and pulpwood and woodpulp) to $7.7 billion, while imports increased $1.6 billion (primarily computers, apparel, and household goods) to $34.4 billion. The goods deficit with Japan increased from $2.6 billion in May to $4.0 billion in June. Exports decreased $0.3 billion (primarily generators, fish and shellfish, and metallurgical grade coal) to $5.4 billion, while imports increased $1.1 billion (primarily passenger cars, computer accessories, and photo equipment) to $9.5 billion. To do calculate the percentage, we need total imports from China, not the trade deficit. That number is $34.4 billion. Let's Do The Math $34.4 billion is the latest monthly import total from China. The yearly total at the same rate is $412.8 billion. USD GDP annualized is $15,003.8 billion. 412.8 ÷ 15,003.8 = 0.02751303 I calculate 2.75%. The reported 2.7% is close enough. Revisions or rounding errors can easily account for the difference. Regardless, that is how the number was derived. San Francisco Fed Report Having done the math (still peeved at missing links), I just found the San Francisco Fed report The U.S. Content of "Made in China". Goods and services from China accounted for only 2.7% of U.S. personal consumption expenditures in 2010, of which less than half reflected the actual costs of Chinese imports. The rest went to U.S. businesses and workers transporting, selling, and marketing goods carrying the "Made in China" label. Although the fraction is higher when the imported content of goods made in the United States is considered, Chinese imports still make up only a small share of total U.S. consumer spending. This suggests that Chinese inflation will have little direct effect on U.S. consumer prices. In our analysis, we combine data from several sources: Census Bureau 2011 U.S. International Trade Data; the Bureau of Labor Statistics 2010 input-output matrix; and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) by category from the U.S. national accounts of the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. We use the combined data to answer three questions: • What fraction of U.S. consumer spending goes for goods labeled "Made in China" and what fraction is spent on goods "Made in the USA"? • What part of the cost of goods "Made in China" is actually due to the cost of these imports and what part reflects the value added by U.S. transportation, wholesale, and retail activities? That is, what is the U.S. content of "Made in China"? • What part of U.S. consumer spending can be traced to the cost of goods imported from China, taking into account not only goods sold directly to consumers, but also goods used as inputs in intermediate stages of production in the United States? Total import content of U.S. PCE Not all goods and services imported into the United States are directly sold to households. Many are used in the production of goods and services in the United States. Hence, part of the 88.5% of spending on goods and services labeled "Made in the USA" pays for imported intermediate goods and services. To properly account for the share of imports in U.S. consumer spending, it's necessary to take into account the contribution of these imported intermediate inputs. We use input-output tables to compute the contribution of imports to U.S. production of final goods and services. Combining the imported share of U.S.-produced goods and services with imported goods and services directly sold to consumers yields the total import content of PCE. Broader implications The import content of U.S. PCE attributable to imports from China is useful in understanding where revenue generated by sales to U.S. households flows. It is also important because it affects to what extent price increases for Chinese goods are likely to pass through to U.S. consumer prices. China's 2011 inflation rate is close to 5%. If Chinese exporters were to pass through all their domestic inflation to the prices of goods they sell in the United States, the PCE price index (PCEPI) would only increase by 1.9% of this 5%, reflecting the Chinese share of U.S. consumer goods and services. That would equal a 0.1 percentage point increase in the PCEPI. The inflationary effects would be highest in the industries in which the share of Chinese imports is highest—clothing and shoes, and electronics. In fact, recent data show accelerating price increases for these goods compared with other goods. However, it does not seem that so far Chinese exporters are fully passing through their domestic inflation. In May 2011, prices of Chinese imports only increased 2.8% from May 2010. This is partly because a large share of Chinese production costs consists of imports from other countries. Xing and Detert (2010) demonstrate this by examining the production costs of an iPhone. In 2009, it cost about $179 in China to produce an iPhone, which sold in the United States for about $500. Thus, $179 of the U.S. retail cost consisted of Chinese imported content. However, only $6.50 was actually due to assembly costs in China. The other $172.50 reflected costs of parts produced in other countries, including $10.75 for parts made in the United States. Figure 2 Geography of U.S. PCE, 2010 Figure 2 shows the share of U.S. PCE based on where goods were produced, taking into account intermediate goods production, and the domestic and foreign content of imports. Of the 2.7% of U.S. consumer purchases going to goods labeled "Made in China," only 1.2% actually represents China-produced content. If we take into account imported intermediate goods, about 13.9% of U.S. consumer spending is attributable to imports, including 1.9% imported from China. Since the share of PCE attributable to imports from China is less than 2% and some of this can be traced to production in other countries, it is unlikely that recent increases in labor costs and inflation in China will generate broad-based inflationary pressures in the United States. No Excuse for Missing Link Given that the article is readily available, there is no excuse for the LA Times' failure to link to it. Generally, in cases like this, I ignore the superfluous article and instead go straight to the source. However, I have had enough of link suppression and am calling the LA Times on it. Bloomberg authors take note. I nearly wrote the same about you a few days ago but was too busy. Fellow bloggers, watch what you are doing. I despise snips like "Reuters Says" with no link. Worse yet are instances where I cannot even find the quote when I search for it. Inflationists Take Note Moreover, in this instance, the LA Times author missed the most important implication of the report, which is "Chinese inflation will have little direct effect on U.S. consumer prices." I concur with the San Francisco Fed conclusion. Interestingly, the San Francisco Fed report did not show the direct math either. Now you know how to do it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Spain Pressured by Letter from Trichet; More on Agricultural Trade Wars; Which Comes First, Harmony or Workable Currency Unions? Posted: 14 Aug 2011 07:12 PM PDT Not only was Italy pressured by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, so was Spain. Courtesy of Google Translate, El Pais reports Trichet Pressures Spain in Letter. The ECB makes recommendations to Spain in a less hard than Italy, in return for the purchase of debt. The announcement of the budget measures made on Sunday by Finance Minister, Elena Salgado, was preceded by increased pressure on Spain by the European Central Bank (ECB). Its president, Jean-Claude Trichet, last week sent a letter to the Spanish government to ask him not to stop the reforms and measures to contain the deficit. The letter, whose contents are discussed in the meeting of the ECB governing council meeting on Thursday, August 4, left Frankfurt at the same time as the letter that led to the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to step on the accelerator of its fiscal reforms. Does anyone think these were "recommendations" and not demands? For a discussion on the letter to Italy, please see my previous post Trichet's Secret "Dragon Transfer" Letter to Italy PM; Watch France CDS Rates as France is "New Italy"; Trichet Illegally Usurps Judge-and-Jury Power Agricultural Trade Wars Part Two As a followup to Border Attacks: Spanish Farmers Threaten to Block Border with France; Global Trade Wars Yet Another Sign of Deflation here are more articles and images of the escalating agricultural trade wars between France and Spain. Angry French Farmers Dump Spanish Peaches, Burn Tires Via French to English translation, please consider The anger of farmers Big day mobilization fruit and vegetable department. Objective of the mobilization: to maintain pressure on the government Tuesday after an action in the Gard region, where several trucks carrying merchandise Spanish saw their cargo spilled on the road. Angry farmers are then directed to the St. Charles market, where they dumped tons of peaches and then burned tires at the roundabout at the entrance of the platform. "This is a Spanish enclave on French soil. They betrayed us under the pretext of winning even more. After the intervention of firefighters to put out different fires, farmers are directed to the toll of Perpignan Sud to control several trucks coming out of St. Charles. One of them took the road to Germany was emptied on the floor by young farmers, especially put together. "We're not bandits and we have nothing against Spanish producers, but the merchandise that was found in the truck does not respect the rules especially for fisheries that are surcalibrées. Since the state does not respect the rules, they did their job." Should we nationalize supermarkets? You know trade wars are intense when you see questions like this in French headline news: Should we nationalize supermarkets? Yesterday, at the toll Lancon, motorists could not believe their eyes. Fifty people brutally emptied the cargo trucks to foreign registrations. These people, it is the farmers of Vaucluse, Bouches-du-Rhône and Gard that have exploded in anger. Low price for sale result of distortion of competition in their view by large retailers, more and more taxes to pay, and especially a flood of imported fruits and vegetables too important. These are the arguments of those farmers to explain the "unprecedented crisis" that they live this year. "All agricultural sectors are affected, including fruits and vegetables. The retail products brought in from Spain and Italy among others. The labor is cheaper in these countries with low prices. French farmers have to lower their prices by at least 20, 30 and even 40% to sell. Currently, the loss of gross turnover rises 25 to 50 according to the operation, "said Andre Bernard, president of the Departmental Federation of Farmers' Unions of the Vaucluse. Thus, to fight against the importation, the farmers of Vaucluse, Bouches-du-Rhône and Gard, framed by the police, conducted a blitz by immobilizing all foreign trucks trying to cross the toll of Lancon, creating a cap of more than 5 km. Manuel, a Spanish driver, despite his resistance, has seen its 24 tons of crushed nectarines on the tar. "It's incomprehensible, Manuel gets mad, I understand that the French production has problems, but why attack me? I do my job." Within 45 minutes, farmers have drained three-truck trailers full of peaches, oranges, figs and pears. "The loading of these trucks is one year of work for one local farmer. And it's not for us we buy the products, carried away the chair 84 of the FNSEA. Now, that's enough. We ask to meet with government to develop a structure plan to save the profession. " Which Comes First, Harmony or Workable Currency Unions? While pondering the meaning of escalating trade wars between France and Spain, please consider this excerpt from When money brought us together The dream that a common currency can foster harmony has a long history. But if the past is any guide, proponents of the euro may have it backward: Where money is concerned, harmony has to come first. You can't create a currency to unite people; you must unite people in order to have a currency. Given the growing tensions between the members of the eurozone, that unity, like de Parieu's dream of "pacific federations of the future," seems more distant by the day. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Swiss Government and Swiss National Bank in "Intense" Talks on Currency Target for Swiss Franc; Talk is Cheap Posted: 14 Aug 2011 03:46 PM PDT Bloomberg reports Franc Weakens Against Dollar, Euro After Report Currency Target Discussed The franc weakened after SonntagsZeitung reported over the weekend that the Swiss government and the central bank are in "intense" talks over setting a possible target for the currency, citing unidentified people close to the situation. Talk is Cheap OK, once you decide a target, how do you get it there? I addressed that question previously in Swiss Central Bank Ponders "Temporary" Peg to Euro; Franc Trades Sharply Lower; This a Bluff? What Does it Take to Maintain a Peg? Is the Threat a Bluff? Just because someone discusses something does not mean the discussion was serious. We cannot tell. However, we do know what a currency peg requires: To maintain a currency peg, one must buy (or sell) virtually unlimited quantities of a foreign currency, as much as the market supplies, to maintain the desired conversion rate. Interest rate policy works the same way. To maintain an interest rate target, the Fed (or any central bank in general) must supply or subtract unlimited amounts of currency to maintain its target interest rate. This happens continually. If the rate is targeted lower than what the market thinks, the Fed or Central Bank must print enough money to keep the target. Likewise, if the Fed sets a rate higher than the market dictates, it must drain as much money as necessary to keep rates to the peg. Does anyone really think this continual micro-manipulation of currency to maintain an arbitrary interest rate (set by central planners who do not know what they are doing) is a good idea? Currency Peg Risks Back to the Swiss Franc: A currency peg is much riskier, because the defense is not in relation to its own currency as it is with interest rates. Moreover, one might expect wild swings and an immediate snap-back once the peg is removed. Thus "temporary" might mean for as long as the Euro crisis continues, and that might be a very long "temporary". Finally, note the relative size of Switzerland vs. all the Eurozone countries. Buying "unlimited" Euros could rapidly get out of hand. China goes through the same setup to maintain its "widening" peg to the US dollar. However, China does not allow much external trade of the Yuan. The above discussion does not answer the bluff question, but it does state what the parameters of the defense must be. All things considered, I do believe it is a bluff. Let's return to the question: Is it a Bluff? I still don't know but now I think it's more likely than I previously thought. Bear in mind, setting a target and hoping the market reacts to it, and officially setting a peg are different things. However, once bureaucrats start marching down a certain path it is hard to get them to stop, no matter how futile the march. I have never seen currency intervention work. It's hard enough if you are a large country, but the size difference in economies and forex trading says the idea cannot work unless the target just happens to be at or near where the market thinks it should be. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Growing Gloom for States and Cities; Who is to Blame? What About Solutions? Posted: 14 Aug 2011 11:29 AM PDT A New York Times article accurately describes a set of fiscal realities in Sunday's editorial A Growing Gloom for States and Cities. The New York Times wildly misses the mark as to who is to blame for this crisis. NYT: Washington should have been trying to find a way to help states avoid the layoffs and cutbacks that have contributed heavily to the high unemployment rate. Instead, it seems to be doing everything possible to make the situation worse in state capitals around the country. Mish: That is essentially correct (except the implied tone). I proposed three items that would most assuredly help cities and states. Once again, here they are. Scrap Davis-Bacon and all prevailing wages laws that force up costs of construction and other projects at the city, county, state and federal level. End Collective Bargaining of public unions. Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin shows the dramatic results that can happen if this is done. School districts that had budget deficits hugely in the read, saw them immediately go into the green, and not even for reasons that one might think. I wrote about it in Union-Busting is a "Godsend"; Elimination of Collective Bargaining is the Single Best Thing one Can do for School Kids Pass national right-to-work laws. Again this will help cash-strapped cities, counties, and states that have to deal with union-mandated pricing instead of competitive pricing. The goal of government should be to provide the most benefit for the least cost. The goal of unions is to provide as little work as possible for the most cost. It's time we end that model. We can easily avoid the layoffs the NYT mentions if public unions accepted lower wages. They won't. Instead, unions cannibalize younger workers for the sake of maintaining preposterous wages and benefits at the top vs. wages and benefits in the private sector. Point blank, the public is fed up with higher taxes to support public unions who get vastly superior wages, benefits, and guarantees than they do. NYT: A recent report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities showed that nearly all states will spend less on vital services in 2012 than they did in 2008, after inflation, even though there are more children in public schools and more poor people on the Medicaid rolls. Mish: Sounds like a good idea to me. We have overpaid for services delivered. My proposals above will help address that issue. NYT: And now comes the Budget Control Act of 2011, the deal reached in Congress to cut $2.4 trillion over the next decade in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Although the deal could have been worse and was structured by White House negotiators to reduce the impact on safety-net programs like Medicare and Medicaid, it will do real damage at the state and local level. Mish: The budget deal could hardly have been worse. There were no spending cuts, tax hikes, or reforms in the measure. The only agreement was to cut a lousy $2.4 trillion ($240 billion a year), all back loaded, not Congressionally binding, when the budget deficit is $1.4 to $1.6 trillion a year. How could it possibly have been worse? NYT: The credit downgrade that resulted from the debt crisis has yet to directly affect state and city bonds, many of which are now absurdly rated higher than Treasury bonds, but credit scrutiny will only get stricter for already weakened states and cities. Mish: I certainly agree it is absurd for city and state bonds to be rated higher than US treasuries. However, the S&P downgrade of the US was fully warranted, even if the S&P went about it in a horrendously sloppy manner. Moreover, increased scrutiny of city and state bonds is a fabulous thing. They are living beyond their means and accurate bond ratings can only help. NYT: If investors start to get nervous about the public sector, borrowing costs could go up. Stock volatility is also taking a toll on state pension funds, which are often heavily invested in the market. Last Monday, when the Dow Jones fell by more than 600 points, the California retirement system lost $6 billion. Declines in the market also lower income tax revenues for state coffers. Mish: It is the height of absurdity to manage interest rates, bond ratings,etc. for the benefit of the stock market. The fact of the matter is stocks are priced for perfection and they should fall because perfection is not on the way. Thus, the NYT is openly encouraging bubbles to bail out pension plans. I have a better idea: Let's start tackling the idea that promises to public union workers and government workers are untenable and need to be reduced. Come to think of it I need to add point 4 to my list. Here it is. 4. Immediately kill defined benefit plans for government workers and accept the idea that promised benefits will be reduced voluntarily or via bankruptcy. NYT: The Republicans who produced this artificial crisis, and are responsible for its effects, say they would like nothing more than to see a reduction in state as well as federal spending. That is where government hits closest to home, affecting the size of classrooms, the bulbs in streetlights, the asphalt in potholes, and the lines in emergency rooms. They are well on their way to achieving their goal, making life more difficult in every city and town. Mish: That is one of the biggest pieces of nonsense in the entire article, chock full of complete nonsense. It certainly is not Republicans who support Davis-Bacon, Collective Bargaining for public unions, or forced union employment against the free-will of employees. Indeed forced union employment is tantamount to forced slavery. I discussed the slavery aspect of forced union membership many times. Here are a pair of articles to consider: Paul Krugman, Stephen Colbert, Bill Maher, others, Ignore Extortion, Bribery, Coercion, and Slavery; No One Should Own You! Professor at Alaska University Chimes in on Public Unions and the Situation in Wisconsin Thus, not only does ridding the US of collective bargaining for public unions and instituting national right-to-work laws make economic-sense, it also makes moral-sense. However, there is plenty of blame for Republicans too. They failed to put these issues on the table. Republicans and Democrats alike refuse to do anything about bloated defense budget that could easily be cut in half at no expense to the security of the US. Indeed, if the US stopped trying to be the world's policeman, our security concerns and enemy list would plunge. Cutting the defense budget by a mere 25% would save at least $2 trillion over 10 years. Sadly, both parties support unsustainable US war-mongering policies. So, yes, I blame Republicans too, but 180 degrees removed from what the Times suggests. Finally, it is primarily Democrat support for unions and untenable union pensions that is at the heart of the crisis in city, state, and municipal governments. There is plenty of blame to go around, let's recognize all of it, and for the right reasons. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Stanford Offers Free Robotics and Artificial Courses; 10,000 Already Sign Up Posted: 14 Aug 2011 09:47 AM PDT In the realm of good (as well as deflationary) news You (YOU!) Can Take Stanford's 'Intro to AI' Course Next Quarter, For Free Stanford has been offering portions of its robotics coursework online for a few years now, but professors Sebastian Thrun and Peter Norvig are kicking things up a notch (okay, lots of notches) with next semester's CS221: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence. For the first time, you can take this course, along with several hundred Stanford undergrads, without having to fill out an application, pay tuition, or live in a dorm. This is more than just downloading materials and following along with a live stream; you're actually going to have to do all the same work as the Stanford students. There's a book you'll need to get. There will be at least 10 hours per week of studying, along with weekly graded homework assignments. The professors will be available to answer your questions. You can look forward to a midterm exam and final exam. If you survive, you'll get a certificate of completion from the instructors, along with a final grade that you can compare to the grades of all those supersmart kids at Stanford. You won't technically earn credits for the course unless you're a Stanford student, but for all practical purposes, you'll be getting the exact same knowledge and experience -- transmitted directly to you by none other than two living Jedis of modern AI. Thrun, director of the Stanford AI Lab, led the team that won the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge, and, more recently, he helped develop the Google self-driving car. Norvig, a former scientist at Sun and NASA, is now director of research at Google and co-author of the leading textbook on AI. 10,000 have already signed up, and there is no limit. Parents, if you have kids in high school, I encourage you to have them take this course. It may change their career plans for the better. For signup information and more details, please see the opening link. I applaud the professors for offering these courses for free. Since the materials will be graded, college credits should apply but they don't. It's a start. Addendum: 10,000 had signed up according to the article. The number is currently 56,000 and counting in various free courses. Here is a list of Free Stanford Courses Some objected to the $58 (discounted) cost of the required book. Here's the deal. Paying $58 for a book is peanuts compared to cost of 3 semester hours. Of course (and as I have pointed out) credits are not given for the free course. They will. Eventually, some college will get accredited and will accept these courses. It is inevitable. This is a far better development than the failed policy "no child left behind" or raising taxes to throw at teachers' unions. Indeed, this is the future of education and it is very deflationary. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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