Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Is Germany's Commerzbank in Need of Another Bailout?
• Little Resistance as Rebels Enter Tripoli, Rebels Capture Two Qaddafi Sons, Celebration in Streets
• Video Content and Blogs by Kids, How Kids See Products, Humor, Politics; Meet the Tweeny Bloggers
• Merkel and Sarkozy the "Imperial Couple"

Is Germany's Commerzbank in Need of Another Bailout? Posted: 21 Aug 2011 05:35 PM PDT Inquiring minds are looking at a chart of Commerzbank for clues about the health of the bank, if not the entire banking system. CBK.DE - Commerzbank Weekly A friend "JMC" writes ... Hello Mish In 2009 the German Government put 10 billion Euros into Commerzbank to keep it alive. Its market cap is now far less than the government (taxpayers) put in. Flashback January 9 2009: German government injects €10bn into Commerzbank The German government has stepped in to salvage a multibillion-euro merger between two of the country's largest banks, Commerzbank and Dresdner Bank, with a €10bn (£9bn) cash injection. The announcement, in effect a partial nationalisation of the combined group, came after several days of tense negotiations between executives from the two banks and state officials. "The government just couldn't afford to let this deal fail," one insider said. Yahoo!Finance now cites CBK.DE market cap as 9.75 Billion. But that is as of June 30, when share prices were 3.18 EU. Now share prices are 1.91 EU so you can lop off about 40% of that market cap, which means after an injection of 10 billion EU, the bank is now worth approximately 5.85 billion EU. Last week an unidentified bank needed to tap the ECB for $500 million in emergency funds at a penalty rate, something that only happens when liquidity dries up and banks are distrustful of lending to each other, even overnight. "JMC" wonders if Commerzbank is the bank needing emergency funds. I don't know because the ECB refuses to say. However, note the result. All banks are suspect because the ECB won't say. Actually, all banks are suspect anyway, but hiding problems acts to enhance large and growing distrust. I have to laugh at the PE of Commerzbank, listed at 2.2. With the collapse in share price, its PE is now under two. This is what's known as a "value trap". Share prices seem attractive at a PE of 10, then 8, then 6, then 4, then 2. On June 20, I discussed "value traps" in Value Traps Galore (Including Financials and Berkshire); Dead Money for a Decade. In retrospect, many financials may head to zero. If so, it will not be dead money for a decade, but rather just pain dead money. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Little Resistance as Rebels Enter Tripoli, Rebels Capture Two Qaddafi Sons, Celebration in Streets Posted: 21 Aug 2011 04:39 PM PDT Rebels claim to have captured two Qaddafi sons and streets erupted in celebration as Rebels Enter Tripoli Meeting Little Resistance. Rebels surged into the Libyan capital Sunday night, meeting only sporadic resistance from troops loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and setting off raucous street celebrations by residents hailing the end of his 42 years in power. The rebel leadership announced that insurgents had captured two of Colonel Qaddafi's sons, including Seif al-Islam, his heir apparent. The leadership also announced that the elite presidential guard protecting the Libyan leader had surrendered. While there was no independent confirmation of those developments, the rebels were racing through parts of the city with apparent ease, and NATO and American officials made clear that control of Tripoli, which had been the final stronghold of the longtime Libyan leader, was now in doubt. Rebel spokesmen said that their fighters had surrounded the Bab al Aziziya compound where they believed Colonel Qaddafi may still be holding out. Colonel Qaddafi issued a series of defiant audio statements during the night, calling on people to "save Tripoli" from a rebel offensive. He said Libyans were becoming "slaves of the imperialists" and that "all the tribes are now marching on Tripoli." He claimed to be in the Libyan capital and said he would remain there "until the end." But some rebel leaders said they thought he had already left Tripoli. Al Arabiya television aired images of Libyans celebrating in central Tripoli and ripping down Qaddafi posters. Huge crowds gathered in Benghazi, the capital of the rebel-controlled eastern part of the country, as expectations grew that Colonel Qaddafi's hold on power was crumbling. While American officials say they are unsure how the battle for Tripoli will play out, they say they are preparing contingency plans if and when Qaddafi's regime falls to help prevent the vast Libyan government stockpiles of weapons, particularly portable antiaircraft missiles, from being dispersed. It's now clear the rebels have won, but who are they, and what are their plans? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Video Content and Blogs by Kids, How Kids See Products, Humor, Politics; Meet the Tweeny Bloggers Posted: 21 Aug 2011 11:47 AM PDT Kids are actively into blogging and producing videos, and some of them are surprisingly good. Should parents encourage their kinds to pursue such activities? I think so. The future belongs to those willing to do things, not just sit and play video games. A blog produced by Calvin, my neighbor's son is what got me thinking about this Sunday diversion from my normal tirades about current economic madness. Inquiring minds may wish to check out his blog ReGiz. Calvin reviews all kinds of products his group of friends might be using. He knows far more about the technology that goes into these devices than I do. He has recently rated products and software such as ... Sony XPERIA, Motorola Atrix Cameras HP Touchpads T-Mobile Samsung Hercules Galaxy SII Calvin wants to work in product design. Certainly reviewing products in his spare time while still in highschool gives him a big edge over those wasting time on video games. Video by Kids Calvin directed me to a site by a few of his friends, Andrew, Adrian, and Fernando, three brothers. Calvin writes ... Andrew and Adrian are twins, along with their brother Fernando, they combine to produce videos. Their ambition is to one day go to school to become movie directors, but in the meantime, they are creating their own movies and shows. They have created two feature length movies which can be found on their youtube account. They created their first movie when they were 9, and their second when they were 12. They intend to create a third movie this summer, and are holding auditions. I have read the script, and it has dramatically improved over their previous two. They also do their own monthly web show called Wacky But True in which they examine all of the recent crazy events that go on in today's world. Superhero Battle 2012! Here is a movie review by the brothers called Superhero Battle 2012! Check out the first episode of "The Movie Duo", a show where we tell you the biggest news and answer the biggest questions about movies! In this episode, we discuss which superhero film will get more money and acclaim from critics and audiences alike next year. Will it be The Avengers, Ghost Rider or The Dark Knight Rises? Please do not make the mistake of comparing these websites and videos to those produced by adults, especially professionals, in regards to blog layout, image quality, ect. The point is these kids are doing something positive about their future and those are the kids who will have a huge edge up in getting a quality job some time down the road. Looking back to when I was 12-14 I could not imagine doing such things. The products and even the ideas for many of these products did not exist. Meet the Tweeny Bloggers Children as young as three are firing up their laptops and connecting, says Susie Mesure in The internet comes of age: Meet the tweeny bloggers They are the Generation Net, whose toddler years have spawned countless mummy blogs, whether they liked it or not. Now, they're getting their own back. Children as young as three are turning to blogging to tell their side of the story. The growing army of child bloggers is tackling subjects from politics to new toys, while improving their literacy skills. The interest has triggered a debate on the wisdom of giving children free rein online, as social networking sites aimed at pre-teens soar in popularity. The prospect of making money online – research last week found that 10 YouTube stars, including one 16-year-old, earn more than £65,000 a year from their share of its advertising revenue – is adding to the allure, even if child bloggers are more likely to be posting links to YouTube than collecting fat cheques from the video-clip sharing site. Sonny To – eight when he started TotallySonny is among those who already find blogging rewarding. "People send me things and I review them," he says. Headphones, a new cereal and a toy owl are among the products that Sonny has blogged about. Now nine, he claims he got into blogging for more than just free stuff. "My mum was getting loads of traffic on her blog and it seemed like fun. Blogging has also made my writing much better and I have learnt how to explain things properly. It has made me much more confident." Maelo Manning, who turned 11 last week, says she likes to air her views. So much so that she has two blogs – after all, they are free to set up. "It's fun to say stuff about what you're thinking, especially about politics." Her Lib demchild blog (Libdem Child's) dispels the notion that politics is just for grown-ups, and she made some cogent points about the lack of affordable childcare in one recent post, which she used to bemoan Westminster Council's decision to shut a free play scheme. She keeps to relatively lighter subjects at Life of a Blooming Child so-called because she finds it "lovely that adults think children are blooming. I hear them talking about this all the time, as in: 'Why is that blooming child doing that?' " Despite being relatively new to blogging, Maelo already has hundreds of readers from as far afield as the US, Australia and Russia. Although Sonny and Maelo's mothers are both relaxed about their children's online presence, not all parents feel the same. James Seddon, Wired magazine's GeekDad blogger, said his instant reaction was to turn down his eight-year-old's request for her own blog as the thought of her "sharing who she is with the world" made him "uneasy". Other parents "lock" their children's blogs, handing the passwords only to friends and families. Should You Let Your Child Blog? About.Com addresses the question Should You Let Your Child Blog? The article cites Online Safety Tips some of which are common-sense suggestions for all age groups, yet other tips seem excessively restrictive for highschoolers (for example, screening everything they write). For the youngest bloggers, Blog Hosting for Kids may be a good idea. Encourage, Not Let About.Com asks the wrong question. "Let" is the wrong word. "Force" or "make" is the wrong idea as well. "Encourage" is a much better word, and not necessarily just about blogging, but about doing something that will give kids an edge up on job hunting after graduation. The same applies to free college level classes. I discussed one such opportunity recently in Stanford Offers Free Robotics and Artificial Courses; 10,000 Already Sign Up. Without a doubt, free robotics classes are a fabulous idea, far better than the public union idea of throwing more taxpayer dollars at problems. Repeating what I said above, the future belongs to those willing to do things, not just sit and play video games. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Merkel and Sarkozy the "Imperial Couple" Posted: 21 Aug 2011 09:18 AM PDT After a lengthy delay it's time once again for Sunday Funnies. Please consider The imperial Couple by Peter Schrank a freelance cartoonist. Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel's proposals for economic government in the eurozone have failed to reassure the markets. Click on link for more cartoons from various cartoonists. Merkel Emphatically Rejects Eurobonds, Debt Unions Using even stronger language, Merkel Says She'll Resist Pressure for Euro Bonds German Chancellor Angela Merkel attempted to shut the door on common euro-area bonds as a means to solve the debt crisis, saying that she won't let financial markets dictate policy. Joint euro bonds would require European Union treaty changes that would "take years" and might run afoul of Germany's constitution, Merkel said today. While common borrowing might arrive at some point in the "distant future," bringing in euro bonds at this time would further undermine economic stability and so they "are not the answer right now." "At this time -- we're in a dramatic crisis -- euro bonds are precisely the wrong answer," Merkel said in an interview with ZDF television from the chancellery in Berlin. "They lead us into a debt union, not a stability union. Each country has to take its own steps to reduce its debt." Merkel has stepped up her opposition to euro bonds since returning from her summer vacation last week, making resistance to common European borrowing a campaign theme of Sept. 4 elections in her home state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Investor calls for euro bonds intensified last week as concerns about the debt crisis and a stuttering global economy drove European stocks to their lowest in more than two years. "Politicians can't and won't simply run after the markets," Merkel said in the interview, her first since returning from a three-week summer break. "The markets want to force us to do certain things. That we won't do. Politicians have to make sure that we're unassailable, that we can make policy for the people." EU President Herman Van Rompuy sided with Germany and France yesterday, ruling out issuing common bonds as a cure for the debt crisis at least until European economies and budgets are better aligned. With three countries drawing financial aid and national debts ranging from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in Estonia to 142.8 percent in Greece, this is the wrong time to set up a single borrowing agency, Van Rompuy said in an interview on Belgium's RTBF radio. Merkel, who said that she's confident of a majority to pass the changes in parliament, called for the focus of Europe's crisis-fighting strategy to remain on tackling debt. Decades of deficit spending in euro-area countries has turned the region into a "debt union" that requires each country to slash debt levels, she said. "This is an arduous, difficult path that can't be solved in one fell swoop, for instance with euro bonds," she said. The Eurobond idea is finished. The EU and the market is going to have to deal with it, and the market has been viewing Eurobonds as a savior. I do not care for Eurobonds either, yet the odds of an EU breakup have just increased. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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