duminică, 28 august 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

International Monetary Research says "Eurozone Break-Up Certain"; I say Embrace the Fact "Banks Cannot Be Saved"

Posted: 28 Aug 2011 08:57 PM PDT

Echoing what I have been saying for years, Christine Lagarde, the new head of the IMF says "Banks Need Urgent Recapitalisation". Unfortunately, much of the rest of what she says is pure nonsense, including the way she wants to achieve that mission.

Please consider European banks set cash test by IMF chief
Christine Lagarde, the IMF's new chief, set off tremors at the Jackson Hole summit over the weekend with warnings that the global financial system is on very thin ice and vulnerable to the slightest shock.

"We are in a dangerous new phase. The stakes are clear: we risk seeing the fragile recovery derailed, so we must act now," she said.

"Banks need urgent recapitalisation. If it is not addressed we could easily see the further spread of economic weakness to core countries, even a debilitating liquidity crisis. The most efficient solution would be mandatory substantial recapitalisation," she said.

Mrs Lagarde issued a thinly-veiled attack on the ECB's rate rises and Europe's fiscal austerity drive. "Monetary policy should remain highly accommodative, as the risk of recession outweighs the risk of inflation. Fiscal policy must navigate between the twin perils of losing credibility and undercutting recovery," she said.

Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said it is folly to force Europe's banks to raise money too quickly or crystallize losses abruptly. This will cause a monetary implosion and a repeat of the 2008 disaster.

He said the ECB's restrictive policies over the last 18 months and the lack of EMU fiscal union have doomed the euro to certain break-up.

"It cannot be saved. Banks will suffer large losses," he said.
Embrace the Fact "Banks Cannot Be Saved"

This mess cannot be saved. Tim Condgon bemoans the fact. I say, embrace the fact!

Tim Congdon wants to kick the can down the road. Christine Lagarde is clearly angling for more taxpayer bailouts.

Just what the hell does it take for people to realize that throwing more money down the drain cannot solve a damn thing?

Banks are going to take losses. That means bondholders are going to take losses. It is nonsensical to assume anything but that. It is equally nonsensical to suggest there is a way around it. The sooner we embrace the simple facts of the matter, the better off everyone but the bondholders will be.

Attempts to shove more bailouts on the backs of already over-leveraged taxpayers will stunt the recovery for years more to come.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Intuit: U.S. Small Business Hiring Slows in August, Wages Dip

Posted: 28 Aug 2011 06:50 PM PDT

Intuit says U.S. Small Business Hiring Slows in August, Wages Dip
Hiring by U.S. small businesses slowed in August and employers reduced hours, an independent survey showed on Sunday, suggesting the recent stock market turmoil may have dampened job creation.

Intuit, a payrolls processing company, said small businesses added 35,000 jobs after increasing employment by 40,000 in July.

The survey is based on responses from about 66,000 employers at businesses with fewer than 20 employees that use the Intuit Online Payroll system and covered the period from July 24 to August 23.

"There was plenty of bad news this month and the Intuit small business employment figures show this," said Susan Woodward, the economist who helped to develop the survey. "From this month's numbers, we don't see a new recession, but we don't see a robust recovery either."
Odds are US Already in Recession

I am increasing amused at the number of analysts and forecasters who think the US will avoid a recession. I think it is odds on the US is already in a recession.

Others have "gone out on a limb" forecasting a recession within a year.

Is that going out on a limb? Of course not. Going out on a limb was when Dave Rosenberg forecast a 99% chance of recession several months ago.

I was not that brave. He was and he deserves the credit for it. Most of the recession callers are Johnny-Come-Latelys. What's more amusing are those who see little chance of it at all.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Greece 1-Yr Rate 60%; Finland Retains Collateral Demand; Multiple Veto Points; ECB "Litmus Test" Coming Up; Germany Accuses ECB of Treaty Violations

Posted: 28 Aug 2011 11:40 AM PDT

Once again the bond markets have spoken, and once again the message is the same: default. Greek two-year bonds are near 44%, having touched as high as 46%. The interest rate on 1-year Greek government debt is a stunning 59.8%.

Greek 1-Year Government Bonds



Greek 2-Year Government Bonds



44% a year, for two years or whopping 60% for one year, unless of course there is a default.

Not only does the bond market say Greece will default, but the implied haircuts are huge given those interest rates.

Greece Not Saved

Supposedly "Greece was Saved" on that blue circle when yet another bailout (throwing more good money after bad) was approved.

The deal unraveled for numerous reasons but demands by Finland for collateral are at or near the top of the list. Austria, Slovakia, and the Netherlands now want collateral as well.

Under great pressure from Germany, the EU, and IMF, Finland allegedly dropped those demands. It was a lie. Finland did not drop demands for collateral, and that shows you the effect of multiple veto points where such decisions must be unanimous or they fall apart.

17 Veto Points

Please consider A Small Country — Finland — Casts Doubt on Aid for Greece
Finland is just one of 17 euro zone countries whose parliamentary approval is needed for the expanded bailout fund and whose domestic politics could upset the process. The case of Finland points to a bigger governance problem in Europe, said James Savage, a professor at the University of Virginia who has published a book on European monetary union.

"You have all these multiple veto points, so they can't come to a reasonable conclusion, at least not easily," Mr. Savage said. "You have increasingly less efficient decisions that are being made."

Officials from European Finance Ministries spent much of Friday in long- distance negotiations about the collateral issue but did not reach an agreement. Conflicting reports about the negotiations have fed market confusion. The news media in Germany and other countries reported Friday that Finland had dropped its demands, but the reports were swiftly denied by Finnish officials.

The climate created by the collateral dispute could make it more difficult for the European Central Bank to continue to defend Italy and Spain in bond markets and contain their borrowing costs. This month the E.C.B. has spent €36 billion, or $52 billion, intervening in debt markets in an effort, so far successful, to cap bond yields for the two countries.

The E.C.B.'s task could prove more difficult when trading volume picks up, especially since both Spain and Italy are scheduled to try to sell debt this week. "A litmus test for the effectiveness of the E.C.B.'s bond-buying program is in the cards," Rainer Guntermann, an analyst at Commerzbank, wrote in a note.

"We have to listen to the people of Finland," said a government official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "Collateral is an absolute condition for Finland to be involved."

The collateral dispute is not the only threat to the bailout package. The plan that leaders worked out in July also calls for banks and other investors to swap some of their existing holdings for new bonds that would be worth less but carry guarantees. The plan is designed to cut Greek debt by €37 billion.

But on Friday, in what was probably a tactical move to put pressure on bond holders to accept the deal, Greece said it would back out of the debt relief plan unless 90 percent of investors agreed, Reuters reported.

"Greece should be allowed to fail," Robert J. Aumann, who has a Nobel in economics, said at a recent conference in Lindau, Germany, according to a text of his remarks. "They should repay the debts they feel able to pay and not pay the others."
Greece Has Failed

Nobel prize winner Aumann says "Greece should be allowed to fail".

Not quite.

Greece failed long ago. It is only stubborn idiots at the ECB, EU, IMF, and leaders of various countries who insist otherwise.

They insist otherwise to protect their banks. Yet, by throwing more money into the pot that will now clearly be defaulted on, they have made matters far worse.

ECB "Litmus Test" Coming Up

Now that Finland wants collateral for Greek loans, it will do the same if Spain or Portugal needs more loans. Moreover, I keep wondering when the citizens of Spain, Portugal, and Ireland have had enough, given the success of Iceland in telling the ECB, EU and IMF to go to hell.

Iceland is recovering. The PIIGS are not.

German President says ECB Bond Purchases "Legally and Politically Questionable"

How much more Italian bonds can the ECB buy before it runs out of cash, willpower, or completely drains the EFSF €440bn pool of money?

While pondering the above question please note that German President, Christian Wulff, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, says that ECB bond purchases are "legally and politically questionable".

The Telegraph reports on the accusation by Wulff in Germany fires cannon shot across Europe's bows
In a cannon shot across Europe's bows, he warned that Germany is reaching bailout exhaustion and cannot allow its own democracy to be undermined by EU mayhem.

"I regard the huge buy-up of bonds of individual states by the ECB as legally and politically questionable. Article 123 of the Treaty on the EU's workings prohibits the ECB from directly purchasing debt instruments, in order to safeguard the central bank's independence," he said.

Mr Wulff said the ECB had gone "way beyond the bounds of their mandate" by purchasing €110bn (£96.6bn) of bonds, echoing widespread concerns in Germany that ECB intervention in the Italian and Spanish bond markets this month mark a dangerous escalation.

The blistering attack follows equally harsh words by the Bundesbank in its monthly report. The bank slammed the ECB's bond purchases and also warned that the EU's broader bail-out machinery violates EU treaties and lacks "democratic legitimacy".

The combined attacks come just two weeks before the German constitutional court rules on the legality of the various bailout policies. The verdict is expected on September 7.

The tone of language from two of Germany's most respected institutions suggests that both markets and Europe's political establishment have been complacent in assuming that the court would rubberstamp the EU summit deals in Brussels.

Nobel laureate Joe Stiglitz told the forum that the euro is likely to fall apart unless Germany accepts some form of fiscal union. "More austerity for Greece and Spain is not the answer. Medieval blood-letting will kill the patient, and democracies won't put up with this kind of medicine."

Mr Wulff rebuked Chancelor Merkel, saying political leaders should not break their holidays every time there is trouble in the markets. "They have to stop reacting frantically to every fall on the stock markets. They mustn't allow themselves to be led around the nose by banks, rating agencies or the erratic media," he said.

"This strikes at the very core of our democracies. Decisions have to be made in parliament in a liberal democracy. That is where legitimacy lies."
Kiss a Larger EFSF Goodbye

  1. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless 17 nations all agree to raise the pool to a collective to the proposed €2.2 trillion from the current €440 billion pool.
  2. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless Greece offers hard collateral
  3. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless German courts rubberstamp the EU summit deals
  4. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless 90 percent of investors agree to the deal

In other words, kiss a larger EFSF goodbye, expect a test of the ECB's Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bond purchasing power, and expect a German court test that in-and-of-itself would settle this matter once and for all.

Even if the German courts approve the deal, there are still more than 17 points of failure, counting investors.

One way or another Greece will default. The sooner the better, actually.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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