Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Interactive Map: What States, Counties, Industries Have Job Growth?
• Fannie, Freddie Overseer Set to File Suit Against Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank
• Central Falls Set to File Bankruptcy Exit Plan; 50% Pension Reductions, 40% Slash in Police and Fire Budgets Coming Up
• Battle Brews in Germany Over Parliamentary Approval of EFSF Funding; Italian Prime Minister Vows to Leave 'Shitty' Italy in Recorded Conversation
• Unions Sue New Jersey Governor Christie Over Pension and Health-Care Benefits
• Manufacturing ISM Dips Slightly, Barely Above Contraction, Saved by Inventory Growth, Much Weaker than it Looks
• Recession Looms in Brazil and Canada; Asia Exports Sink; Global Economy Deteriorates Rapidly led by BRICs; Asia Stagflation; PIMCO Admits Mistake

Interactive Map: What States, Counties, Industries Have Job Growth? Posted: 01 Sep 2011 11:25 PM PDT The following interactive map shows job growth (or in many cases, loss) by state or county since 2006. Deep orange indicates very strong job growth, deep blue indicates large losses. Texas in particular stands out strongly. The chart also shows job growth by industry. Notice the strength of mining/extraction, healthcare, and educational services. This interactive map may take a while to load. Please give it extra time. Select a state from the drop down list or click on any county for details. The interactive map is via Tableau Software with data from EMSI, Economic Modeling Specialists. Specific thanks to Ross Perez and Ellie Fields at Tableau Software. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Fannie, Freddie Overseer Set to File Suit Against Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank Posted: 01 Sep 2011 07:30 PM PDT Shortly before a legal deadline passes, U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages The federal agency that oversees the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is set to file suits against more than a dozen big banks, accusing them of misrepresenting the quality of mortgage securities they assembled and sold at the height of the housing bubble, and seeking billions of dollars in compensation. The Federal Housing Finance Agency suits, which are expected to be filed in the coming days in federal court, are aimed at Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, among others, according to three individuals briefed on the matter. The suits stem from subpoenas the finance agency issued to banks a year ago. If the case is not filed Friday, they said, it will come Tuesday, shortly before a deadline expires for the housing agency to file claims. The suits will argue the banks, which assembled the mortgages and marketed them as securities to investors, failed to perform the due diligence required under securities law and missed evidence that borrowers' incomes were inflated or falsified. When many borrowers were unable to pay their mortgages, the securities backed by the mortgages quickly lost value. Fannie and Freddie lost more than $30 billion, in part as a result of the deals, losses that were borne mostly by taxpayers. Private holders of mortgage securities are already trying to force the big banks to buy back tens of billions in soured mortgage-backed bonds, but this federal effort is a new chapter in a huge legal fight that has alarmed investors in bank shares. In this case, rather than demanding that the banks buy back the original loans, the finance agency is seeking reimbursement for losses on the securities held by Fannie and Freddie. Besides the angry investors, 50 state attorneys general are in the final stages of negotiating a settlement to address abuses by the largest mortgage servicers, including Bank of America, JPMorgan and Citigroup. The attorneys general, as well as federal officials, are pressing the banks to pay at least $20 billion in that case, with much of the money earmarked to reduce mortgages of homeowners facing foreclosure. Bank officials also counter that further legal attacks on them will only delay the recovery in the housing market, which remains moribund, hurting the broader economy. Other experts warned that a series of adverse settlements costing the banks billions raises other risks, even if suits have legal merit. As of June 30, Freddie Mac holds more than $80 billion in mortgage securities backed by more shaky home loans like subprime mortgages, Option ARM and Alt-A loans. Freddie estimates its total gross losses stand at roughly $19 billion. Fannie Mae holds $38 billion of securities backed by Alt-A and subprime loans, with losses standing at nearly $14 billion. I am all in favor of these lawsuits as long as the losses can be quantified. If one of these lawsuits takes down Bank of America, so be it. Indeed, it would probably be a good thing. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Central Falls Set to File Bankruptcy Exit Plan; 50% Pension Reductions, 40% Slash in Police and Fire Budgets Coming Up Posted: 01 Sep 2011 05:35 PM PDT Central Falls, Rhode Island set to file bankruptcy exit plan delayed by Irene Central Falls filed for bankruptcy Aug. 1, and receiver Robert Flanders said then that he wanted to submit an exit plan to U.S. Bankruptcy Court Judge Frank Bailey within 30 days. But Tropical Storm Irene forced Flanders to push back the self-imposed deadline. "Central Falls lost power in the middle of the storm and just recovered it yesterday, and that's hampered our access to servers and the Internet that we need to formulate the plan," Flanders said during a taping of Rhode Island Public Radio's weekly Political Roundtable segment. "So there's going to be a slight delay in us getting that before the bankruptcy judge, but our plan still is to get that in as soon as possible – hopefully next week or shortly thereafter – and we're well along on a five-year plan of recovery," he said. Flanders' plan is likely to meet with heavy opposition from lawyers representing the city's retirees and unionized workers. They have until Sept. 16 to file a first round of objections. Flanders has said he wants the city to be out of bankruptcy by February. Flanders has already ordered reductions of up to 50% in Central Falls retirees' pensions and suggested he will need to slash the police and fire budgets by 40%. Attorney General Peter Kilmartin said last month he's concerned about the impact that could have on public safety. No Impact to Public Safety Assuming the city budget is now balanced, the plan seems reasonable to me and taxpayers have rightfully been shielded. There should be no impact to public safety. Police and fire fighters should be told (not asked) to accept salary cuts of 40%. Not a single police of firefighter need be fired. Thus, the concerns of Attorney General Peter Kilmartin over public safety impacts are ridiculous. Any officer, firefighter, or teacher who can find a better job at more money in the private sector would be free to do so. I suspect few would. To prohibit future fights, the unions should be dissolved and collective bargaining ended. The Way Forward This is the way forward and unions better get used to it. If public unions do not agree to reasonable haircuts now, they can take larger haircuts in bankruptcy court. All it takes is for one major city to see the light and there will be a cascade of bankruptcies by cities to get out of onerous public union contracts. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Battle Brews in Germany Over Parliamentary Approval of EFSF Funding; Italian Prime Minister Vows to Leave 'Shitty' Italy in Recorded Conversation Posted: 01 Sep 2011 03:14 PM PDT Angela Merkel wants quick passage of EFSF changes and once in place wants to make bailouts without further parliamentary approval. This sounds much like the disastrous open-ended slush-fund bailout proposals we saw in the US at the height of the crisis. Merkel warns that parliamentary approval would slow things down. What's wrong with that? Indeed it might be better if things slowed to a halt, otherwise taxpayers are going to get screwed again. Der Spiegel does not see it that way. Please consider Parliamentary Influence over Euro Bailouts 'Naive' The German parliament is calling for increased authority in euro-zone bailout packages established by the EFSF backstop fund. But that could ultimately slow things down to a dangerous degree, economists warn. German commentators on Thursday make a plea for democracy. Germany's parliament feels ignored. Until now, the Bundestag has had very little influence on decisions made by Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government regarding bailout packages for heavily indebted euro-zone states. But with expanded powers having been granted to the euro backstop fund -- known as the European Financial Security Facility or EFSF -- at a European Union summit in July, German parliamentarians also want a greater say. On Wednesday, Merkel's cabinet agreed on the law necessary to expand the EFSF , a change which must be agreed to by all euro-zone governments. But the question as to how much influence the German Bundestag might ultimately have over EFSF bailouts was left unanswered, pending ongoing negotiations. Given the threat of a conservative revolt , Merkel has proven open to a compromise. Too many parliamentary defections from her Christian Democrats (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, in the late September vote could topple her government. But on Thursday, several struck a more cautionary note, including German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, a leading member of the CDU. The EFSF , he said, must be able to "act quickly." As such, he said that the parliament must act responsibly with any influence it is granted. Several economists went even further. "In a situation of market panic, the EFSF has to act quickly," Holger Schmieding, chief economist of Berenberg Bank, told the Financial Times Deutschland. "It could happen overnight or on a weekend." German taxpayer liability in the new ESFS proposal is €211 billion, nearly the national budget. And Merkel wants that at her disposal with no interference from parliament. Quite frankly it is nuts. Imagine Obama asking for a $1 trillion slush fund at his disposal to bail out other countries. The whole country would think he was mad. Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi is Finished If you did not know it before, it is crystal clear now, Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi has had it. The Guardian reports Berlusconi vows to leave 'shitty' Italy in conversation recorded by police In a sign of his frustration at the investigations into his alleged crimes and misdemeanours, Silvio Berlusconi vowed in July to leave Italy, which he described as a "shitty country" that "sickened" him. The Italian prime minister's astonishing remarks are contained in the transcript of a telephone conversation secretly recorded by police investigating claims he was being blackmailed about his sex life. At dawn on Thursday, police swooped on a flat near Via Veneto – one of Rome's most expensive streets – to arrest Giampaolo Tarantini, a central figure in a scandal that threatened to bring down Berlusconi two years ago. Tarantini's wife, Angela Devenuto, was also taken into custody and a search launched for a third person. The arrest warrant shows that the three are accused of extorting at least €500,000 (£440,000) "as well as other benefits of economic significance". Berlusconi has admitted paying the couple, but said he did so voluntarily. The sex scandal at the origin of the latest allegations was one of several involving Berlusconi in the past three years. He is on trial in Milan charged with paying an underage prostitute and then using his position to cover up the alleged offence, but that case is not related to the one that has now come back to haunt him. Details of the latest investigation were leaked last month in a news magazine belonging to Berlusconi. The magazine, Panorama, claimed the prosecutors believed Tarantini was being paid to stop him contradicting the prime minister's claim that he was unaware that some of the women who visited his home were prostitutes. But Panorama said Tarantini had repeatedly confirmed in wiretapped conversations that Berlusconi was indeed oblivious of the payments the women were receiving. Italy's prime minister, who turns 75 later this month, has made much over the years of his talents as a playboy and has insisted he would never pay for sex. These stories of internal bickering show the fragile nature of the Eurozone bailout proposals. Finland's insistence on collateral is another piece of the fragile puzzle. This whole mess seems like it is attached together with rubber-bands, paper clips, and Elmer's glue. I fail to see how it can possibly last. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Unions Sue New Jersey Governor Christie Over Pension and Health-Care Benefits Posted: 01 Sep 2011 02:07 PM PDT Brain dead public unions think lawsuits will solve a problem resulting from untenable wages and benefits that cannot be paid. Instead of accepting the obvious New Jersey Governor Christie Sued by Unions Over Pension, Health Benefits New Jersey public employee unions, seeking to block a law reducing pension and health benefits, sued Governor Chris Christie and other state officials. More than 20 unions and individuals representing teachers, firefighters, police officers and other public employees claim the law enacted June 28 violates the U.S. and state constitutions by forcing them to pay more for pensions and health insurance. In a complaint in federal court in Trenton, New Jersey, they asked a judge yesterday to block enforcement of the law and order the state to fully fund the pension systems. "Another lawsuit won't change the fact that the public employee pension system was on a collision course with collapse without the governor's and the Legislature's bipartisan intervention," a Christie spokesman, Michael Drewniak, said in a statement. 'Oblivious' Union "The union leadership is unaccountably oblivious to that," he said. "So, fine, file another lawsuit, keep your heads in the sand and ignore the problem. We will defend as necessary our pledge to fix the public employee pension system for all employees, former, present and future." The law deprives workers of their due process rights by suspending pension adjustments, increasing employees' contributions, underfunding pensions and delegating to pension committees an "unrestrained authority to reduce pension and change eligibility requirements," according to a copy of the complaint on the education group's website. The sense of entitlement of these overpaid, underworked, public union ingrates is stunning. The Governor needs to seek legislation that will end all collective bargaining rights of public unions as soon as possible. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Manufacturing ISM Dips Slightly, Barely Above Contraction, Saved by Inventory Growth, Much Weaker than it Looks Posted: 01 Sep 2011 10:06 AM PDT The August 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is barely above contraction, buoyed only by rising inventories. "The PMI registered 50.6 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from July, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 25th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate. The Production Index registered 48.6 percent, indicating contraction for the first time since May of 2009, when it registered 45 percent. The New Orders and Backlog of Orders Indexes edged up slightly from July, but both indexes are indicating contraction in August at slower rates than in July. The rate of increase in prices slowed for the fourth consecutive month, dropping another 3.5 percentage points in August to 55.5 percent. The overall sentiment is one of concern and caution over the domestic and international economic environment, which is affecting customers' confidence and willingness to place orders, at least in the short term." Manufacturing PMI Components MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE AUGUST 2011 Index Series Index Aug Series Index Jul % Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend* (Months) PMI 50.6 50.9 -0.3 Growing Slower 25 New Orders 49.6 49.2 +0.4 Contracting Slower 2 Production 48.6 52.3 -3.7 Contracting From Growing 1 Employment 51.8 53.5 -1.7 Growing Slower 23 Supplier Deliveries 50.6 50.4 +0.2 Slowing Faster 27 Inventories 52.3 49.3 +3.0 Growing From Contracting 1 Customers' Inventories 46.5 44.0 +2.5 Too Low Slower 29 Prices 55.5 59.0 -3.5 Increasing Slower 26 Backlog of Orders 46.0 45.0 +1.0 Contracting Slower 3 Exports 50.5 54.0 -3.5 Growing Slower 26 Imports 55.5 53.5 +2.0 Growing Faster 24 OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 27 Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 25 Employment ISM's Employment Index registered 51.8 percent in August, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the 53.5 percent reported in July. While this month represents the 23rd consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment, the August reading is also the lowest reading since November 2009, when the index registered 50.4 percent. An Employment Index above 50.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment. See report for details on other sub-components. Saved by Inventory Growth The headline number is an average of new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Rounding to the nearest decimal, that average is 5.6%, helped by rising inventories. This month both new orders and production are in contraction. Backlog of orders is also contracting. Exports are barely above contraction. The key trends are all lower. This could easily be the last hurrah after 25 months of manufacturing expansion. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Recession Looms in Brazil and Canada; Asia Exports Sink; Global Economy Deteriorates Rapidly led by BRICs; Asia Stagflation; PIMCO Admits Mistake Posted: 01 Sep 2011 02:32 AM PDT In spite of all the denials, the US, Europe, and Australia are in recession. Brazil and Canada just entered the recession zone as well. This economic turn of events has PIMCO CEO Bill gross admitting a mistake. Let's take a look starting with Brazil. 62 of 62 Analysts Miss Call on Brazil Interest rates Given that central banks most often telegraph their moves, the one place analysts are typically correct is on interest rate policy. That wasn't the case this time as Brazil Cuts Key Interest Rate to 12% as Recession Risks Outweigh Inflation Brazil's central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates as the risk of recession in Europe and the U.S. shifted policy makers' focus away from the fastest inflation in six years. The bank's board, led by President Alexandre Tombini, voted 5-2 to cut the benchmark rate a half point to 12.0 percent after raising rates at each of the previous five meetings. All 62 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast rates would be left on hold. "Re-evaluating the international scenario, the Committee considers there was a substantial deterioration, reflected in generalized reduction of great magnitude in the growth projections for the major economic blocs," policy makers said in their statement posted on the central bank's website. Stunning Reversal That is a stunning reversal and I would not have gotten it correct either. Normally there is some sort or warning or at least a pause. BRIC Growth Engine Dies Bloomberg reports BRICs No Cure for Global Economy This Time Stocks of international companies that depend most on emerging markets for sales show developing nations won't be strong enough to buoy the global economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s gauge of U.S. companies with the most developing-nation revenue fell 15 percent since April, the biggest drop since the bull market began in 2009. Avon Products Inc. (AVP), which gets at least 74 percent of operating profit from emerging markets, sank 15 percent in New York last month. Siemens AG (SIE), which doubled sales from the nations in five years, lost 21 percent in Frankfurt, the most since October 2008. "The policy driven boom of the past couple of years will not be repeated any time soon," said Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London and author of "Losing Control: The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity." It's "difficult to see how emerging nations can ride to the rescue once more," he said. Citigroup, the third-largest U.S. lender by assets, gets more than half its earnings from emerging markets, CEO Vikram Pandit said in March. While second-quarter revenue from the consumer bank's Latin American and Asian units rose 13 percent to $4.46 billion, profit fell 14 percent. Shares of the New York-based bank retreated 19 percent last month, more than the 11 percent drop in the S&P 500 Financials Index. Whirlpool, based in Benton Harbor, Michigan, relied on developing nations for at least 32 percent of its second-quarter revenue, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The world's largest appliance maker reported a 92 percent plunge in operating profit in Asia, more than the 62 percent decline in North America, the data show. Whirlpool's shares fell 8.7 percent in August, extending this year's retreat to 29 percent. China Suffers Sharp Drop in Export Orders Reuters reports Asia's factories quieter as exports slip The Purchasing Managers Indexes showed manufacturing contracted in South Korea and Taiwan as new export orders fell sharply. China's official PMI increased slightly, the first rise since March, but it also reflected the effects of slowing demand in the United States and Europe. China's overall PMI rose to 50.9 in August from 50.7 in July, according to government data, a touch weaker than economists polled by Reuters had predicted. The new export orders index dropped to 48.3 from July's 50.4. Beijing pinned the blame for the sharp fall in export orders at least partly on the debt crises in advanced economies. The National Bureau of Statistics said the export sector was "facing challenges." Taiwan's PMI dropped to 45.2 in August, the lowest reading since January 2009, which was in the middle of the global financial crisis that crushed world trade. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. China is battling inflation at a three-year high, and Premier Wen Jiabao said on Thursday that Beijing would try to engineer a bigger drop in consumer prices in the second half of the year. Chinese officials have said repeatedly that fighting inflation is the top priority despite sluggish growth abroad. Thursday's data showed input prices rose in China last month, suggesting price pressures remain acute. Brazil unexpectedly lowered interest rates on Wednesday because of concern about a global economic slowdown. China isn't the only Asian economy struggling to contain inflation. In South Korea, the consumer price index hit a three-year high, up 5.3 percent in August from a year earlier, marking the eighth consecutive month that inflation has exceeded the Bank of Korea's target. Thailand's CPI was also higher than expected. This puts Asia's central bankers in a bind. Hot inflation points to more interest rate hikes, but the darkening global outlook argues for a policy pause. Asia Stagflation Stagflation is one of those muddled terms that people debate over. The definition I prefer is inflation and recession at the same time. Using that definition, Brazil and parts of Asia are in stagflation now. Recall that Keynesian theory stated recession and inflation at the same time were impossible. The 1970's proved that theory to be rubbish. Keynesianism should have died in the 70's, totally discredited, but somehow it survived in academia where its nonsensical ideas still haunt us to this day. Canadian Economy Contracts The Globe and Mail reports Canadian Economy contracts for first time since recession Canada now has its own two-speed recovery, with the domestic economy holding firm even as exports falter amid a slumping global rebound. The economy shrank at an annualized rate of 0.4 per cent in the second quarter, the first contraction since the Great Recession, and a sharp reversal from the 3.6-per-cent growth rate of the first quarter, Statistics Canada figures showed. It's a sign that Canada, envied by many countries as a bastion of stability since the financial crisis, is not immune to global economic malaise. In fact, among the Group of Seven club of rich economies, only Japan had a worse second quarter. Sales abroad staged their steepest drop in two years, with exports plummeting more than 8 per cent on an annual basis. The high-flying Canadian dollar made it harder for businesses to sell their goods to weakening markets in the United States and Europe. Also, Japan's natural disasters created havoc in the automobile industry, while wildfires in northern Alberta and maintenance shutdowns in the oil industry curtailed energy production. But there's a bright side to Canada's performance. Company purchases of machinery and equipment in Canada soared at a 31-per-cent annualized pace in the second quarter, the biggest surge since 1996. That shows businesses remain upbeat about their prospects, but also illustrates the gulf in confidence between Canadian executives and their U.S. competitors, analysts said. No Bright Side to Canada's Performance There is no bright side to Canada's performance. The confidence is misplaced. The global economy is in complete shambles. The US, Eurozone, UK, Australia, Brazil, and parts of Asia are in recession. Moreover, austerity measures are about to smack Europe, the Australia housing bust is in full swing, and Brazil just joined the recession party. To top it off, China and India are fighting huge inflation problems. If Canada is ramping up productive capacity now, it is a huge mistake, not a bright spot. Moreover, Canada's enormous property bubble will collapse and perhaps a global slowdown is just the right catalyst this go around. PIMCO Admits Mistake Reuters reports PIMCO says betting against U.S. debt was a mistake Bill Gross, the manager of the world's largest bond fund, feels like "crying in his beer" for having bet so heavily against U.S. government-related debt earlier this year, the Financial Times reported on Monday. Showing a more bearish view on the U.S. economy, Gross said PIMCO had initially dumped all of its U.S. debt holdings in March as he expected economic growth to be higher, resulting in inflation down the road. That decision greatly undermined the performance of PIMCO's Total Return Fund. As Treasuries prices rallied, the fund lost 0.97 percent in the past four weeks, while the benchmark Barclay's U.S. Aggregated Bond Index rose 0.23 percent in the same period, according to Lipper data. So far this year, the fund has returned 3.29 percent, less than the 4.55 percent recorded by the Barclay's benchmark index. "When you're underperforming the index, you go home at night and cry in your beer," the Financial Times, in its online edition, quoted Gross as saying. "It's not fun, but who said this business should be fun. We're too well paid to hang our heads and say boo hoo." Gross, who oversees $1.2 trillion at PIMCO, said it was "pretty obvious" he wishes he had more Treasuries in his portfolio right now. "I get that it was my/our mistake in thinking that the U.S. economy can chug along at 2 per cent real growth rates. It doesn't look like it can." Six Reasons to Fade Bill Gross Flashback March 10, 2011: Pimco Dumps All Remaining Treasuries in Total Return Fund; Six Reasons to Fade Bill Gross Six Reasons to Fade Pimco I view this setup as favorable for US Government bonds. For starters there is no Pimco selling pressure, only potential buying pressure when Gross changes his mind. Second, everyone seems to think the end of QE II will be the death of treasuries. While that could be the case, sentiment is so one-sided that I rather doubt it, especially is the global recovery stalls. Third, the US dollar is towards the bottom of a broad range and any bounce could easily wipe out gains in higher yielding emerging-market debt. Fourth, the global macro picture is weakening considerably with overheating in China, state government austerity measures in the US, and a renewed sovereign debt crisis in Europe on top of a supply shock in oil. Emerging markets are unlikely the place to be in such a setup. Fifth, chasing yield means chasing risk, and that is on top of currency risk. Chasing risk is highly likely to fail again at some point, the only question is when. Sixth, several interest rate hikes are priced in by the ECB this year. Will all those hikes come? I rather doubt it, and if the ECB doesn't hike, look for the US dollar to rally, perhaps significantly. The US dollar has not significantly rallied yet, but otherwise I am pleased with what I said back in March. Pettis 12 Predictions I have to say that Michael Pettis' Long-Term Outlook for China, Europe, and the World; 12 Global Predictions is looking fabulous now, and possibly way ahead of schedule, even in China. If so, the much beloved BRICs and commodities in general (with the possible exception of gold), will not be the place to be. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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