Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Mortgage Default Notices Surge 33% Nationwide, 55% in California, 200% by Bank of America; Corresponding Jump in Foreclosures Will Follow
• Cause for Celebration: Hollywood Florida Residents Vote to Cut Pensions of Police, Firefighters, and City Employees
• Delusional Hopes of Greece "Progress"; Greek Bonds Hammered Again; Lesson of Lehman
• Stocks Rally on Dead-on-Arrival Eurobond Proposals, Rumors, and Patches; More ECB Emergency Funding; Why a Breakup of the Eurozone is Likely

Mortgage Default Notices Surge 33% Nationwide, 55% in California, 200% by Bank of America; Corresponding Jump in Foreclosures Will Follow Posted: 14 Sep 2011 11:01 PM PDT At long last, the robo-signing scandal may have finally played out. As evidence, please note the August Surge in Mortgage Default Warnings. The number of U.S. homes that received an initial default notice -- the first step in the foreclosure process -- jumped 33 percent in August from July, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday. The increase represents a nine-month high and the biggest monthly gain in four years. The spike signals banks are starting to take swifter action against homeowners, nearly a year after processing issues led to a sharp slowdown in foreclosures. Foreclosure activity began to slow last fall after problems surfaced with the way many lenders were handling foreclosure paperwork, namely shoddy mortgage paperwork comprising several shortcuts known collectively as robo-signing. Many of the nation's largest banks reacted by temporarily ceasing all foreclosures, re-filing previously filed foreclosure cases and revisiting pending cases to prevent errors. Other factors have also worked to stall the pace of new foreclosures this year. The process has been held up by court delays in states where judges play a role in the foreclosure process, a possible settlement of government probes into the industry's mortgage-lending practices, and lenders' reluctance to take back properties amid slowing home sales. In all, 78,880 properties received a default notice in August. Despite the sharp increase from July, last month's total was still down 18 percent versus August last year and 44 percent below the peak set in April 2009, RealtyTrac said. Some states, however, saw a much larger increase. California saw a 55 percent increase in homes receiving a default notice last month, while in Indiana they climbed 46 percent. In New Jersey, where last month a judged ruled that four major banks could resume uncontested foreclosure actions in the state under court monitoring, homes receiving a default notice increased 42 percent. Huge Jump in Foreclosures Coming Up Reality Check reports Huge Surge in Bank of America Foreclosures Bank of America is ramping up its foreclosure processing, sending out far more notices of default to borrowers in August than in previous months, well over 200 percent more month-to-month. A notice of default is the first stage of the foreclosure process in non-judicial foreclosures states, that is, where foreclosures do not go before a judge. The foreclosure numbers are down very slightly year-over-year, but only because August 2010 was one of the highest foreclosure months on record, and of course was just before the "robo-signing" scandal was uncovered. Delays in processing have artificially lowered the foreclosure numbers over the past year, so this new surge is likely addressing loans that have been long delinquent, but unaddressed. In other words, the foreclosure pipeline is filling again. Rising Default Notices and Foreclosures a Good Thing Housing will not bottom in many areas as long as there is a mile-high stack of foreclosures in the pipeline. Thus the faster forecloses increase the better. The bad news is this process will still take a long time. The Foreclosure Pipeline in New York is a staggering 57 years. The pipeline is 51 years in New Jersey. Please see Bad News Overwhelms; Foreclosure Pipeline in NY is 693 months and 621 Months in NJ for details. Those numbers are distorted by various delays, yet even with the pickup in foreclosures, it may takes years to get back to normal. Of course the Obama administration is doing everything it can to stall foreclosures, exactly the wrong thing to do. A side implication of increased foreclosures will be a reduction in consumer spending by those living in their homes for years without paying a cent on their mortgage. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Cause for Celebration: Hollywood Florida Residents Vote to Cut Pensions of Police, Firefighters, and City Employees Posted: 14 Sep 2011 05:52 PM PDT Residents of Hollywood Florida have had enough of exorbitant police, fire and city workers. In a referendum pitting a 23% tax increase against public union benefits, voters made the smart choice. The turnout was small, but that should have favored the unions because every one of them probably voted to keep the gravy train and screw everyone else. Please consider the Miami Herald article, Hollywood voters: Cut the pensions With a low voter turnout — about 13 percent of the city's 84,521 registered voters — residents cast ballots to strip police, firefighters and the city's general employees of their current pension plans, allowing the city to save $8.5 million. Facing a $38 million deficit and unable to come to an agreement with the city's unions, Hollywood leaders took the risky move of putting the issue to a public referendum. Last year, the city said it had to put $36.6 million into the underfunded pension program. Several cities throughout South Florida are also struggling with sharply increased pension costs, and have been eyeing the Hollywood case to see how it turned out. "It could be a harbinger,'' said Stephen Cypen, an attorney who represents more than a dozen South Florida municipal pension funds, including Hollywood's. Referendums carry a special significance because voters are getting the chance to weigh in, he said, adding that Tuesday's "yes'' vote could have implications for other cities. Coral Gables, Miami, Pembroke Pines and Miami Beach have also been struggling with rising pension costs. But not all cities need to hold a referendum; in Hollywood's case, the city charter requires a citywide vote when the unions and city officials can not come to an agreement. Union leaders said Tuesday night they will challenge the election in court. "They went about this wrong way," said Firefighter Union President Dan Martinez. "They completely superseded our right to collectively bargain." Inherent Wrongs Voters went about this the right way. There is no "inherent right" for public union collective bargaining. Indeed, public union collective bargaining is an "inherent wrong" on two counts. It is tantamount to slavery (Please see Paul Krugman, Stephen Colbert, Bill Maher, others, Ignore Extortion, Bribery, Coercion, and Slavery; No One Should Own You!) No one speaks up for the taxpayer Taxpayers made the only reasonable choice. The changes mean fire, police and general employees will have to work longer in order to retire, will receive a smaller percentage of their salary as pension and will no longer be able to include vacation and cost of living increases into the formula. For firefighter Bill Huddleston, who has been with the Hollywood fire department for 22 years, the yes vote is "devastating." Huddleston, 46, began working at age 24 and has been on the force for 22 years. He would be eligible to retire in a few months. "This city will be changed forever," Huddleston said. Change for the Better Huddleston moans the "This city will be changed forever." Mish says "It's about time. The change will be for the better". It is nonsensical for someone to be able to retire at age 46. The sense of entitlement of so-called public servants is galling. It's no wonder Hollywood is broke. Public unions have broken the backs of nearly every city in the country. Taxpayers Still Stiffed If voters had struck down the pension changes, the city was preparing to lay off 75 employees and consider raising the tax rate by 23 percent. Instead, the city will likely stick with an 11 percent tax increase. Note how taxpayers are still paying through the nose with a "mere" 11 percent tax increase. A better option would have been bankruptcy, hoping to void police and firefighter contracts altogether. Cause for Celebration "It's not a victory and not a cause for a celebration," said Mayor Peter Bober. "It's properly viewed as taking an important step toward changing the way we do business in Hollywood." Mayor, please be serious. Of course it's a cause for celebration. However, it's only a start. National right-to-work laws, the scrapping of Davis-Bacon and all prevailing wage laws, and the end to mandated collective bargaining especially for public union workers would set the country in the right direction and be cause for a "grand celebration". One-by-one, city-by-city will come to that conclusion even if Congress fails to address the issues. Cities are broke, and there is no other choice. Unfortunately president Obama wants to head the country in exactly the wrong direction with "card check" rules and other hopeless ideas. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Delusional Hopes of Greece "Progress"; Greek Bonds Hammered Again; Lesson of Lehman Posted: 14 Sep 2011 01:13 PM PDT The stock market and the bond market have different ideas regarding a Greek default. Yahoo! Finance reports Stocks jump on hopes for progress on Greece's debt Stock indexes jumped in another day of bumpy trading Wednesday after European leaders renewed pledges to help Greece avoid defaulting on its debts. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 194 points, or 1.8 percent, to 11,299 at 3 p.m. It had been down as many as 112 points within an hour after the opening bell. The leaders of Greece, France and Germany agreed in a teleconference that Greece was an "integral" part of the 17-nation bloc that uses the euro. Greece also agreed to abide by agreements to trim its debts. The statements were intended to calm fears that Greece was headed for a default on its debt or might be forced to exit the euro. Uri Landesman, president of the New York hedge fund Platinum Partners, said worries over Greece have gone too far. Landesmann thinks European countries won't let a Greek default create a larger financial crisis. "They're just not going to let them go under," he said. "That's just not happening. I think people have learned the lesson from letting Lehman Brothers fail." Ass Backwards Thinking The idea of continually throwing away money to prevent the inevitable is ludicrous. We would be far better off now if more major banks had failed and bondholders adequately punished. Instead the crisis drags on and taxpayers pay the price thrice: In a dearth of jobs, in low yields that squeeze those on fixed income, and in higher energy costs. Three Lessons of Lehman Lehman was undercapitalized and overleveraged It should have failed and it did The world did not end Uri Landesman has it ass backwards. The crisis would be far closer to an end had only there been more Lehmans. Instead we suffer prolonged torture and delusional hope from by those who think this situation is fixable short of default. Greek 1-Year Bonds Greek 10-Year Bonds The bond market, not Uri Landesman, has this correct. For further discussion, please see Stocks Rally on Dead-on-Arrival Eurobond Proposals, Rumors, and Patches; More ECB Emergency Funding; Why a Breakup of the Eurozone is Likely Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Stocks Rally on Dead-on-Arrival Eurobond Proposals, Rumors, and Patches; More ECB Emergency Funding; Why a Breakup of the Eurozone is Likely Posted: 14 Sep 2011 11:02 AM PDT The ECB stepped in today to provide emergency liquidity to at least two banks (without specifying the banks). The implication of course is that all banks are suspects. Meanwhile, rumors of China buying significant amounts of debt of Italy has been denied by China's premier, clearly overruling meaningless statements made by Zhang Xiaoqiang, a vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission. Also in the news today is a meaningless statement by European Commission President, Jose Barroso, who will "soon present options for the introduction of euro bonds" Dead-on-Arrival Eurobond Proposals The Financial Times as have sever others reported several days ago the Eurobond idea is Dead following the German court ruling that allowed some of the Greek bailout ideas to continue. Please consider Stop rejoicing. This was no victory for the eurozone As an advocate of eurozone bonds, I have to admit their prospect looks grim after last week's ruling of the German constitutional court. The court upheld the European financial adjustment facility, the crisis mechanism. This was, undoubtedly, good news. But after I read the whole ruling, which ran to 29 tightly written pages, I realised that this judgement was not a victory for the eurozone at all. On the contrary, it categorically rules out any policy option beyond what has been agreed so far. I cannot see how it can be consistent with the survival of the eurozone, given the policies of member states and the ECB. Much of the language in this document is opaque constitutional jargon. But on the issues that matter, the ruling is surprisingly, and depressingly, clear. It says the German government must not accept permanent mechanisms – as opposed to the EFSF, which is temporary – with the following criteria: if they involve a permanent liability to other countries; if these liabilities are very large or incalculable; and if foreign governments, through their actions, can trigger the payment of the guarantees. If I were a plaintiff in this case, I would regard that statement as an open invitation by the court to bring a new case against the European stability mechanism. If the ESM is a borderline case under German constitutional law, there can be no such doubt about a eurobond. The court's verdict leaves me no alternative but to conclude they are indeed unconstitutional. Moreover, you cannot get around this unfortunate fact with an ingenious combination of eurocratic trickery and financial engineering. The court, quite cleverly, did not mention eurobonds. It talked about liabilities. The Bundestag is not precluded from giving money to Greece, but it cannot empower a third party, such as the EFSF or ESM, let alone a hypothetical European Debt Agency, from usurping sovereign power. Sovereignty can be delegated in small slices, but not permanently. A eurobond is, of course, a permanent mechanism. It also involves a permanent loss of control. Its size is very likely to be substantial. There would not be any point in issuing a small eurobond – it would not resolve the crisis. And unless member states were to transfer some of their sovereignty to Brussels, all the inherent risks in the structure would come from non-compliance by national governments or parliaments. In other words, a eurobond perfectly matches the conditions set by the constitutional court for an arrangement that violates the German constitution. Why a breakup of the euro zone is likely Edward Harrison writing for Credit Writedowms thinks the issue seals the fate and a breakup of the euro zone is likely In June, I wrote that the chances of a euro zone breakup are now increasing, giving background for the current political turmoil surrounding Greece. My conclusion was "the policy decisions that governments and the EU are making cannot be maintained politically in the periphery or in the core". A few days later, Nouriel Roubini wrote a very good note explaining then why the Eurozone could break up over a five-year horizon. We both stated that the key to maintaining the euro zone at all was the potential for closer integration of the member states. But the German Constitutional Court decision makes this nearly impossible. German Court Bans Fiscal Union Ambroze Evans=Pritchard at The Telegraph comes to the same conclusion in German court curbs future bail-outs, bans EU fiscal union Germany's constitutional court has at last delivered its Solomonic judgment on Europe's rescue machinery. "The Bundestag's budget responsibilities may not be transferred through open-ended appropriations to other actors. In particular, no financial mechanisms can lead to meaningful fiscal burdens without prior approval," said the opinion. "No permanent treaty mechanisms shall be established that leads to liability for the decisions of other states, especially if they entail incalculable consequences," it said. The ruling is "a clear rejection of eurobonds", said Otto Fricke, finance spokesman for the Free Democrats (FDP) in the governing coalition. Above all, the court ruled that the Bundestag's fiscal sovereignty is the foundation of German democracy and that Article 38 of the Basic Law prohibits transfer of these prerogatives to "supra-national bodies". By stating that there can be no further bail-outs for the eurozone without the prior approval of the Bundestag's budget committee, the court has thrown a spanner in the works and rendered the EFSF almost unworkable. Politicians Can't Take No For An Answer Clearly, Eurobonds are dead-on-arrival, regardless of how the proposal is worded. Even disregarding the German court ruling, the likelihood that Austria, Finland, and all 17 countries need to change the treaty would agree to allow Eurobonds is zero. Nonetheless, Bloomberg reports Barroso Vows Euro-Bond Options European Commission President Jose Barroso said he is close to proposing options on joint euro-area bond sales, putting officials in Brussels on a collision course with Germany over steps to contain the debt crisis. "The commission will soon present options for the introduction of euro bonds," Barroso told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, today, prompting applause from lawmakers who have backed the idea. "Some of these options could be implemented within the terms of the current treaty; others would require treaty change." The idea of bonds sold jointly by the euro area's 17 nations remains alive because unprecedented bailouts by governments and the European Central Bank have failed to stamp out debt concerns that began in Greece almost two years ago and rattled markets in AAA rated France last month. Let the Euro Die The Eurobond idea may be alive in the minds of fools who do not understand the ruling of the German court or the court of public opinion which is decidedly against more bailouts. Elections are coming up and the leaders of Germany, Italy, Spain, and France may all go down in flames. Voters are fed up with all of them. French President Nicholas Sarkozy may be bumped by a candidate running on a "Let the Euro Die" platform. Please see Europe Out of Time; Differences Impossible to Untangle; Merkel's Mind is Fried; Eurozone Breakup Inevitable; "Let the Euro Die" for details. Stubborn, Foolish Arrogance So, is this latest Eurobond idea stubborn arrogance by fools or an purposeful attempt to placate the markets, buying more time? Occam's Razor suggests the first: stubborn foolish arrogance rather than a purposeful conspiracy to delay things. Geithner Weighs in on "Political Will" German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will hold a conference call at about 7 p.m. today Athens time to discuss developments in Greece and the euro area. European authorities "need to do whatever they can do to calm these pressures," Geithner told Bloomberg Television Sept. 9. "They have to demonstrate they have enough political will." Political Will Cannot Overrule Market Forces Geithner is yet another politician who thinks political will can overrule market forces, common sense, and in this case a German court ruling as well. Temporary Liquidity Patch More liquidity (and solvency) issues are on the front burner today as the ECB Lends Dollars to European Banks The European Central Bank said it will lend dollars to two euro-area banks tomorrow, a sign they are finding it difficult to borrow the U.S. currency in markets. The ECB allotted $575 million in a regular seven-day liquidity-providing operation at a fixed rate of 1.1 percent. It's the first time since Aug. 17 that a lender requested dollars from the ECB. The spot rate was $1.3625. An ECB spokesman declined to comment on which banks borrowed the funds. Expect the ECB at some point to offer "Unlimited Liquidity". That will not work either because the crisis is a solvency issue, not a liquidity issue. The ECB's stopgap measures do nothing to solve the issues at hand: Banks are overleveraged as well as undercapitalized Taxpayers do not have sufficient money to bail out the bondholders yet again Neither the German court nor the court of public opinion will allow more bank bailouts even if taxpayers did have a sufficient pool of funding to tap (which they don't) So why are the markets rallying on news that is meaningless and proposals that cannot possibly happen? The answer is short-term sentiment is too bearish, even if long-term sentiment is not. Things do not move in a straight line and dip-buyers fail to understand the severe implications of the German court ruling. This is not a good time to "buy the dip". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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