Central Perk: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

marți, 4 octombrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Viral Nonsense About What Caused Tuesday's Rally
Good News in Michigan: Right-to-Work Drive Gains Steam in Legislature
"Get the Heck out of Bank of America" says Senator Richard Durbin, on Senate Floor; Rep Brad Miller Accuses Banks of "Vulgar Profits"
Christie Blows Golden Opportunity to Lead Nation, Bows Out of Presidential Race; Prospects for US Economy Go Down the Drain
Australia Central Bank Signals Rate Cut; "Different Economic Phase" Says PM;Reflections on the "Hard Currency" Play; "Out of the Blue" Taunt Indicator
Goldman Sachs Says Commodities May Rally 20% on Emerging-Markets Growth; Mish Says Fade Goldman

Viral Nonsense About What Caused Tuesday's Rally

Posted: 04 Oct 2011 09:03 PM PDT

No fewer than a half-a-dozen sites featured or repeated a silly story about Tuesday's late rally that propelled the S&P 500 up 45 points in an hour. I am commenting because of all the emails I received on the idea.

Supposedly the Financial Times article EU ministers look at bank aid plans triggered the rally.

European Union finance ministers are examining ways of co-ordinating recapitalisations of financial institutions after they agreed that additional measures were urgently needed to shore up the region's banks.

Although the details of the plan are still under discussion, officials said EU ministers meeting in Luxembourg had concluded that they had not done enough to convince financial markets that Europe's banks could withstand the current debt crisis.

"There is an increasingly shared view that we need a concerted, co-ordinated approach in Europe while many of the elements are done in the member states," Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic affairs, told the Financial Times. "There is a sense of urgency among ministers and we need to move on."

"Capital positions of European banks must be reinforced to provide additional safety margins and thus reduce uncertainty," Mr Rehn said. "This should be regarded as an integral part of the EU's comprehensive strategy to restore confidence and overcome the crisis."

Wall Street surged 4 per cent in the final hour of trading after this FT report was initially published.

This is a case of looking for a cause and finding one.

The most likely explanation of this rally is purely technical. Support was breached, no more sellers stepped in and a short-covering rally from deeply-oversold commenced as bears covered. If you prefer, "short-term psychology changed for unattributable reasons"

It is highly doubtful this all happened because of non-statements with no details from Olli Rehn. Rather, Rehn just happened to be spouting nonsense right as the market was ready to reverse on short-covering.

It is a mistake to look for an immediate explanation for every market move. Sometimes the explanation will not come for days (then be attributed to something else), and sometimes there really is no explanation other than short-term psychology changed.

When everyone starts fishing for answers, someone will find one, no matter how silly, and the story gets repeated everywhere.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Good News in Michigan: Right-to-Work Drive Gains Steam in Legislature

Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:14 PM PDT

I am always in search of good news. Today I found some in Michigan where a Right-to-work drive gains steam

In this historic stronghold of the American labor movement, the phrase "right to work" is seen by many as fighting words.

But with a new GOP-controlled state Legislature and a Republican governor in place in Lansing, a move is afoot to make Michigan the 23rd state in the nation to adopt legislation that would prohibit unions and employers from regulating collection of union dues or requiring employees to join a union if their workplace is organized.

"We've got growing and substantial support in the Legislature for pursuing Michigan becoming a right-to-work state, but this is a marathon, not a sprint, and it's all about making sure we are removing all obstacles to jobs," said state Rep. Mike Shirkey, Clarklake Republican.

"Everyone acknowledges that overcoming the 75-plus-year history of legacy unions here is not something you do overnight. But some of the polls statewide indicate the public is moving toward a direction of supporting workers having the choice," he said. "I'm not anti-union. I call it labor freedom, where unions are as free to make their case as workers are to make their choice."

Despite the presence of the powerful United Auto Workers, a recent poll by the Grand Rapids Press found that 51 percent of state residents polled said they would back a right-to-work statute, compared with 27 percent opposed. The poll sample was relatively small, surveying 300 Michigan voters.

The state's Republican governor, Rick Snyder, has said right-to-work laws are not on his agenda, calling them divisive at a time when his state must band together to change its economic direction. But some speculate that, if such a law moved through the Legislature, Mr. Snyder might quietly pass on the chance to veto it.

Among those betting on the governor's ultimate support is Mr. Shirkey, who said Mr. Snyder, a successful entrepreneur before taking office, has done "some unbelievably courageous and gutsy things" since his election a year ago and is not afraid of going against the grain.

"He would say, 'It's not on my agenda,' but he's not saying it can't be on his agenda," Mr. Shirkey said.

Here's the bad news. Republican governor Rick Snyder is a wimp. If he would get behind this bill it would sail through the legislature. Right-to-work is the right thing to do and he should have no qualms backing it.

Hopefully the Republican legislature puts Snyder to the test.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

"Get the Heck out of Bank of America" says Senator Richard Durbin, on Senate Floor; Rep Brad Miller Accuses Banks of "Vulgar Profits"

Posted: 04 Oct 2011 12:25 PM PDT

Senator Richard Durbin of Illinois is telling Americans to "Get the heck out of that bank", right on the Senate Floor. His comments are in response to Bank of America hiking fees on debit cards.

Please consider BofA Customers Urged by Lawmakers to Quit Lender Over Debit Fee

Congressional Democrats are pushing customers to quit doing business with Bank of America Corp. and one lawmaker is looking to make it easier for them to do so as the biggest U.S. lender announced plans for new debit-card fees.

U.S. Representative Brad Miller, a North Carolina Democrat, introduced a bill today that would bar banks from imposing fees on people who close accounts, calling the proposal a response to the Charlotte, North Carolina-based firm's plan to charge some debit customers an additional $5 a month.

"As megabanks flirt with menus of new fees, an increasing number of Americans will want to switch banks," Miller, a member of the Financial Services Committee, said in a statement. "That is the way things work in a competitive, free market as unrepentant banks are still trying to rake in vulgar profits from their customers."

Miller's criticisms echoed those of Senator Richard Durbin, the Illinois Democrat who successfully pushed for legislation restricting the amount banks could collect from retailers for debit transactions. The two lawmakers spoke out after President Barack Obama questioned whether Bank of America has an "inherent right" to charge the new fee, which the company said was aimed at making up revenue lost because of the new limits on so-called interchange.

Bank of America Website Down 4th Day, "Thanks for Your Patience" Says Website

The Register reports Bank of America website disrupted for 4th day in a row

Bank of America's website continued to suffer sporadic outages on Monday, marking the fourth day that some customers have been unable to use its online services to check balances and pay bills.

"We're sorry, but some of our pages are temporarily unavailable," a note posted to the homepage for the biggest US bank read. "Thanks for your patience." The advisory, and sporadic outages, have greeted many people trying to use bankofamerica.com since Friday.

Bank of America spokeswoman Tara Burke declined to discuss the underlying cause of the outages except to say it isn't related to hacking, denial-of-service attacks, or other incidents related to security.

By not commenting, Bank of America is making matters worse.

Bank of America (BAC) Flirts With $5

Note the late-August "Buffet is Buying" spike has been taken back and then some. The $5 level is crucial. Many mutual funds cannot hold stocks whose share prices drop below $5.

Exclusive Nonsense

As an example of shoddy reporting please consider Exclusive: Buffett not worried by BofA share fall.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is not concerned by the sharp drop in Bank of America Corp (BAC) shares in the last couple of days, despite his $5 billion investment in the company last month, he told Reuters on Tuesday.

"We agreed to hold it for at least five years, so what I'm thinking about is where Bank of America will be in five years, and nothing in the last 24 hours or 48 hours has changed my views on that," the Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) chief executive told Reuters on the sidelines of Fortune magazine's Most Powerful Women Summit.

Buffett made his bet on Bank of America's survival in late August (though it closed in early September). The deal gave him preferred shares with a hefty dividend and warrants that represent 6.5 percent of Bank of America stock.

Of course Buffett is not concerned about share price of Bank of America. He owns the debt. His primary concern is the debt is paid back, not the share price. It is extremely sloppy reporting to not point this out.

Addendum:

Reader Blake writes "As a libertarian I am appalled that a senator would directly attack an individual company for pricing decisions made by that company."

Blake is correct in that stance. Senators should not make such statements on the floor of Congress.

However, the decision by Bank of America was piss poor. They misunderstood public reaction, and worse yet were not prepared for the surge in traffic. No one will remember all the other banks who followed suit. Everyone will remember Bank of America was the first to jack rates. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan is incompetent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Christie Blows Golden Opportunity to Lead Nation, Bows Out of Presidential Race; Prospects for US Economy Go Down the Drain

Posted: 04 Oct 2011 11:33 AM PDT

I had hopes that Christie would step up to the plate because other than Ron Paul, every other Republican candidate leaves much to be desired.

Thus, I am sad to report Christie Says No to White House Bid, Ends Speculation

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who spent more than a year denying he'd run for president in 2012, put an end to renewed speculation of a bid and said he won't join the race to challenge President Barack Obama.

The 49-year-old Republican, who has been reconsidering in recent days, announced the decision during a news conference today at the state capitol in Trenton.

"My commitment to the state is what overrode everything else," Christie said. "New Jersey, whether you like it or not, you're stuck with me."

I believe Christie would have become the next president had he run. Instead, expect more war-mongering, trade wars, and refusal to do anything about public unions regardless of what candidate wins.

I do not know what Christie's policies are regarding war-mongering or trade wars. However, I do know the rest of the field, including Obama is committed to doing nothing about excessive military spending. I also know that protectionist nonsense is brewing in Congress and Mitt Romney is on the wrong side of the debate.

Finally, I know (as does everyone else) what Christie has done in New Jersey to take on public unions.

Christie would have lit a fire in the middle. Instead, the nation faces the prospect of another four years of Obama or some lame Republican (assuming Paul does not win). The very best we can hope for from Romney or Perry is to not make matters worse.

Prospects for US Economy Go Down the Drain

I highly doubt Christie gets another chance, ever. Moreover, Obama's odds of winning just shot up.

Unfortunately, Christie's time has come and gone, unless by some miracle he is drafted in a deadlocked convention. The chance for a genuine outsider to lead just went down the drain, and so did prospects for the US economy.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Australia Central Bank Signals Rate Cut; "Different Economic Phase" Says PM;Reflections on the "Hard Currency" Play; "Out of the Blue" Taunt Indicator

Posted: 04 Oct 2011 09:25 AM PDT

Housing, retail, and now commodity weakness have taken a toll on the Australian dollar. The final straw for the "Aussie", the hardest of "hard currencies" (currencies of commodity producing countries such as Australia and Canada) is rate cuts. They are coming.

Bloomberg reports Aussie Weakens to One-Year Low as RBA Signals Interest-Rate Cut Possible

The Australian dollar dropped to its lowest in a year against the greenback as a policy statement by the central bank suggested that an easing of inflation pressures will pave the way for possible interest-rate cuts.

The so-called Aussie slid for a third day against the yen as traders priced in an 86 percent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by half a percentage point to 4.25 percent by November. New Zealand's dollar held a four-day loss against the U.S. currency, after touching a six-month low, as data showed business confidence fell in the third quarter.

"Taking into account all the recent information, the path for inflation may now be more consistent with the 2-3 percent target in 2012 and 2013," RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement accompanying the board's decision to leave rates unchanged at 4.75 percent. "An improved inflation outlook would increase the scope for monetary policy to provide some support to demand, should that prove necessary."

"The RBA is opening the door to a rate cut and that should put some downward pressure on the Australian dollar," said Richard Grace, the Sydney-based chief foreign-exchange strategist and head of international economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "With equity markets continuing to remain very soft, I'd suggest that the Aussie is at risk of falling below 90 cents."

Economic Bust Hits Australia

Flashback May 13, 2011: Economic Bust in Australia:Near-Record Corporate Bankruptcies, Employment Drops Unexpectedly; Rise in Bad Home Loans;Record Low Property Transactions

Employment Unexpectedly Falls Most Since 2009
Bloomberg reports Australian Employment Unexpectedly Falls Most Since 2009, Currency Weakens

The RBA said in its May 6 quarterly policy statement that "most leading indicators point to further growth in employment over the months ahead, although at a slower pace than in 2010." It also predicted the jobless rate would fall to 4.25 percent by December 2013.
RBA Calls For Unemployment Rate to Drop

What the hell is it that the RBA sees that I don't? The property bust is underway and going to accelerate, retailers are going under, and consumers are tapped out.

How exactly does that translate to lower unemployment rate?'
Rise in Bad Home Loans

The Age reports a Rise in CBA bad home loans

Commonwealth Bank's decision to aggressively grow its mortgage market share at the height of the financial crisis is starting to cause indigestion after it revealed an increase in the number of housing loans starting to turn bad.
Further stress in the housing market could emerge with CBA chief executive Ralph Norris predicting the Reserve Bank could issue as many as two interest rate increases by October.

"We're obviously expecting the Reserve Bank to increase rates and there's possibly one or two rises to come in the next six months," Mr Norris told an investor briefing.
Mr Norris was speaking as CBA confirmed it was on track for a record profit result after it reported third-quarter earnings of $1.7 billion.

Norris Way to Optimistic

I disagree with the CBA chief executive Ralph Norris on nearly every point.

I highly doubt the RBA hikes twice more.
I expect cuts as the Australian economy slumps into a big recession.
I expect delinquencies to rise further.
I expect profits at CBA have peaked or will soon do so.

I expected the Australia dollar would sink for the reasons stated: Rising unemployment, recession, a housing bust, and most importantly rate cuts (when everyone else was expecting hikes).

Australia's unemployment rate rises to 10-month high

Flash Forward: September 8 2011: Australia's unemployment rate rises to 10-month high

Australia's unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to a 10-month high in August.

Joblessness jumped to 5.3% from 5.1% in July, according to the country's statistical bureau.

Some analysts say the figures will persuade the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold the key interest rate at its current level.

Note the expectation even in September for more rate hikes. Also note how badly the RBA screwed up its assessment of unemployment.

Australian Dollar Daily Chart

click on chart for sharper image

Reversals Difficult to Time

It is exceptionally difficult to time these reversals.

I thought it was pretty clear in May (actually way before that because of the housing bust and retail weakness), that the next move by the RBA would be to lower rates. However, it was not until September (accompanied by the plunge in commodities and increased tension in Europe) that the market agreed.

Then it was a quick 14.5% drop in the value of the Australian dollar in two months, from 1.10 all the way to .94. That drop wiped out a years' worth of gains (or more) for anyone in the "hard currency" trade betting on short-term Australia bonds.

"Out of the Blue" Taunt Indicator

One of the signs of a huge reversal is what I call the "out of the blue" taunt indicator.

In early August several people emailed "out of the blue" telling me how horrendous my call was, how the RBA was going to hike, why commodities would not pull back, and that there would be no Australia housing crash.

They nailed the top in the Australian dollar. Congratulations!

Reflections on the "Hard Currency" Play

Those who got in the "hard currency" play in early 2009 or the dip in mid-2010 are still way ahead. However, those who chased the play anytime in 2011 are underwater. Those who chased in mid-2011 are way underwater.

The moral of this story is simple: The much ballyhooed "hard currency" play is not something you plow into and forget about.

"Different Economic Phase" Says Prime Minister

Those looking for further evidence of pending economic demise can find it when charlatans start preaching new paradigms and "it's different this time".

Australia's prime minister Prime Minister Julia Gillard did just that on Tuesday. Please consider Aussie PM says mining boom likely to be sustained

Australia's mining boom fueled by Chinese demand, which kept the economy out of recession during the global financial crisis, "is likely to be sustained for a very long period," Prime Minister Julia Gillard said Tuesday.

Gillard told a tax summit at Parliament House that the current boom in exports of iron ore and coal is different from previous cycles in Australian history that inevitably ended in busts.

"We are in a different economic phase and we shouldn't let the language of 'boom' deceive us," Gillard said.

The idea that exports will keep the Australian economy out of recession is complete silliness. Moreover, it was not commodities that kept the Australian economy humming during the great financial crisis, but an enormous property bubble that has now burst.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Goldman Sachs Says Commodities May Rally 20% on Emerging-Markets Growth; Mish Says Fade Goldman

Posted: 04 Oct 2011 01:06 AM PDT

Goldman Sachs says Commodities May Rally 20% on Emerging-Markets Growth

Commodity prices may advance 20 percent over the next year as growth in emerging markets offsets the impact of the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe and a slowdown in developed economies, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)

The bank reiterated an "overweight" recommendation on commodities over the next 12 months, while remaining "neutral" in the near term, analysts led by Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report today. Oil and copper forecasts for 2012 were reduced.

"With recent GDP revisions by our economists falling hardest on Europe but emerging market growth expectations still relatively solid, we continue to believe that demand growth in 2012 will be sufficient to tighten major commodity markets," Currie wrote. "We now see a flatter upward trajectory for commodity prices."

Cutting Calls

Goldman joins BNP Paribas SA and Commerzbank AG in cutting calls for the metal that some investors see as a barometer for economic activity. The bank also trimmed the 12-month price target for copper to $9,500 per ton from $11,000, while zinc's target was reduced to $2,400 per ton from $2,700.

Fade Goldman

For starters, the fact that Goldman and Commerzbank trimmed estimates says they failed to spot the weakness in Europe, the US, and China and what that would do to commodity prices.

I see no reason to be bullish or even neutral on commodities now.

The idea that emerging markets will trump a recession in Europe, the US, and Australia is ridiculous to put it mildly. Moreover, the idea that emerging markets will decouple from the global economy is preposterous in and of itself.

Finally, China is overheating and a new regime change next year will likely end the huge infrastructure plays in China that have been sucking up copper and other commodities.

Goldman's Rationale Horrendously Flawed

Simply put, no matter what commodities do, Goldman's rationale is horrendously flawed. Yes, commodities "may" rally 20%. However, they "may" fall 20% or even 30% first, and I suggest that is more likely.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

marți, 4 octombrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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marți, 4 octombrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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