Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Detroit May Run Out of Cash Next Month, Unable to Meet Payroll, Situation Worse than Reported
• Obama Accuses Eurozone of "Problem of Political Will"; Bank of England Explains True Meaning of "Lender of Last Resort"
• Bond Market Gives Overwhelming Vote of "No Confidence" in New Greek Technocrat Prime Minister
• JPMorgan, Goldman Keep Investors in Dark on European Debt Risk ; Net Position Disclosure Hides True Risk
• European Government Bond Market "Frozen" says Bank of Italy Managing Director; ECB Steps in But Rally Fails to Hold
• Ron Paul Moves Into 4-Way Tie in Iowa Caucus Polls Despite Lack of Media Attention; Fox News Gives Ron Paul 5 Seconds; The Ron Paul "Distraction"
• Selloff in European Debt Continues; Spanish Five-Year Government Note Yield Increases to Euro-Era Record 5.82%

Detroit May Run Out of Cash Next Month, Unable to Meet Payroll, Situation Worse than Reported Posted: 16 Nov 2011 07:53 PM PST Michigan Live reports Detroit could run out of cash in December, plan must include layoffs Bing is expected to discuss a confidential Ernst & Young report obtained by the Detroit Free Press that suggests Detroit could run out of cash by April without steep cuts to staff and public services. That's a grim prognosis, but according to Brown, the city actually could be unable to make payroll "as early as December." "I know the report says April, but there are certain risk assumptions that when you take those into consideration, worst case scenario you could run out (of cash) in December," Brown said this morning on WJR-AM 760. In his speech tonight, Bing is expected to propose privatizing the city's public bus system and lighting departments, both of which have been failing residents but reportedly cost them $100 million a year in subsidies. Expect to see more stories like these, just as I have said for years. Many major cities are walking dead including Oakland, Miami, Cleveland, Houston, Los Angeles, Newark, and quite frankly too many to list. Public unions, untenable union wages and benefits, and prevailing wage laws coupled with politicians buying votes of public union members are to blame for most of this mess. Bankruptcy, huge clawbacks on public union benefits, scrapping of all prevailing wages laws, and the end of all collective bargaining of public unions are the solutions. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Obama Accuses Eurozone of "Problem of Political Will"; Bank of England Explains True Meaning of "Lender of Last Resort" Posted: 16 Nov 2011 05:18 PM PST President Obama believes saving the Euro is a matter of "political will". Apparently 17 nation treaties are meant to be broken, ignored, or easily adjusted. That's what French president Nicolas Sarkozy thinks as well. Meanwhile in a rare statement from a central banker that I agree with, Mervyn King explains the Harsh Truth about the Meaning of "Lender of Last Resort" The European Central Bank is under pressure to bail out indebted countries by printing more euros. But it really isn't as straightforward as that. It is a statement of why there is no easy solution to the crisis that involves the ECB simply cranking up its printing presses and lending to Italy, Spain and whoever else needs a helping hand. The ECB, under its mandate, is simply not allowed to lend to eurozone governments who are struggling to access funds at reasonable rates – and there are good reasons for that arrangement. Here are the relevant remarks by the governor of the Bank of England at this morning's press conference. This phrase 'lender of last resort' has been bandied around by people who, it seems to me, have no idea what lender of last resort actually means, to be perfectly honest. It is very clear from its origin that lender of last resort by a central bank is intended to be lending to individual banking institutions and to institutions that are clearly regarded as solvent. And it is done against good collateral, and at a penalty rate. That's what lender of last resort means. That is a million miles away from the ECB buying sovereign debt of national countries, which is used and seen as a mechanism for financing the current-account deficit of those countries, which inevitably, if things go wrong, will create liabilities for the surplus countries. In other words, it would be a mechanism of transfers from the surplus to the deficit countries. The whole issue is, do they wish to make transfers within the euro area or not? That is not something that a central bank can decide for itself. It is something that only the governments of the euro area can come to a conclusion on. Obama Accuses Eurozone of "Problem of Political Will" Inquiring minds are reading Eurozone bond markets in turmoil as France and Germany dig in over ECB The row between France and Germany over whether to use the European Central Bank to rescue the eurozone has intensified, further shattering international confidence that a solution can be found to the escalating debt crisis. On a day when the US president, Barack Obama, accused the eurozone of suffering from a "problem of political will", Paris and Berlin clashed over whether the ECB should be called on to do more to bail out countries that are struggling to borrow. Obama, on a visit to Australia, warned that Europe's leaders must do more to save the single currency. "Until we put in place a concrete plan and structure that sends a clear signal to the markets that Europe is standing behind the euro and will do what it takes, we are going to continue to see the kinds of market turmoil we saw," he said. In contrast to the unusually clear thinking by the Bank of England, Obama offers meaningless platitudes about what should be done, ignoring what can be done. More importantly Obama did not address the question as to why the Euro should be saved in the first place. The concept is fundamentally flawed and was doomed from the start, just as Euro skeptics said over a decade ago. Rather than face that simple truth, European leaders and now president Obama want to save the unsavable. Tensions Heat Up The Guardian article continues ... Tension between France and Germany was behind much of the market turbulence, traders said. In France there was a plea for the ECB to take a bigger role in the rescue of the currency union. "The ECB's role is to ensure the stability of the euro, but also the financial stability of Europe. We trust that the ECB will take the necessary measures to ensure financial stability in Europe," said government spokeswoman Valérie Pécresse. Germany stuck to its insistence that the central bank did not and should not have a mandate to do more. "The way we see the treaties, the ECB doesn't have the possibility of solving these problems," said Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, after talks with Enda Kenny, the Irish prime minister, who is visting Germany. Her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, said using the ECB was the "wrong solution" and that Europe would "pay a high price in the long run" if it gave in to pressure from some governments and markets on the central bank's role. Wolfgang Schäuble is a wishy-washy figure who at times makes sense. This is one of those times. However, he cannot be trusted as noted by these Schäuble Flip-Flops courtesy of Google Translate. 21st December 2009 "We Germans cannot pay for Greece's problems." 16th March 2010 "Greece has not asked for help, this is why there is no decision, and there is no decision had been taken." 11th April 2010 Four weeks later, on 11 April, he decided to finance the first Euro-Greece-aid package of € 30 billion. 16th April 2010 "We still believe that the Greeks are on the right track and that they may end up not even have to take the help." 22nd April 2010 "The country has had no problems in financing themselves this week in the markets. The agreement on the assistance in an emergency has been a purely preventive measure." Greece officially asked for help April 23. In early May a rescue package of 110 billion € was in the works. 27th April 2010 "Rescheduling not an issue" May 2010 The 110 billion euros in the first aid package "ceiling" is a one-time emergency assistance. 21st March 2011 The EU finance ministers decide on a rescue fund with legendary 750 billion euros (ESM) - with the voice Schäuble. 6th June 2011 Greece will receive a new package with more than 100 billion €. Schäuble said: Otherwise, "we face the real risk of the first disordered state of insolvency within the euro zone." AND WHAT'S NEXT? Previously, the Finance Minister is on his no to common bonds of all euro countries, the so-called Euro-bonds remained. But perhaps he thinks it is so different again next week . Nonetheless, as long as Schäuble makes sense I will be happy to point it out. When he caves in to political pressure, I will point that out as well. Bond auctions are coming up tomorrow (Thursday) for Spain and France. All hell might break loose. If it doesn't on Thursday, it will soon. This crisis is rapidly coming to a head but no solution is being discussed. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Bond Market Gives Overwhelming Vote of "No Confidence" in New Greek Technocrat Prime Minister Posted: 16 Nov 2011 02:33 PM PST The Guardian Business Blog reports 5.18pm: The results are in from Greece, and the new unity government has received an overwhelming vote of confidence. Of the 293 deputies who cast ballots, 255 MPs endorsed the motion while 38 rejected it. 5.55pm: Lucas Papademos's victory in the vote of confidence in the Greek parliament rounds off a decent day for Europe's new technocratic governments (with Mario Monti sworn in as Italy's new PM this afternoon). Quite frankly that is not the vote of confidence that matters. This is the vote of confidence that matters. Greek 1-Year Bond Yields The Bloomberg link to Greek 1-year bonds shows the pertinent information even if their chart does not. A 1-year bond yield approaching 300% is decidedly not a vote of confidence. Yield: +20.74 Basis Points Yield: 271.50 Percent As an aside, I need to find a new source for European sovereign debt charts. Bloomberg replaced their previously nice looking chart system with a new interactive map that does not look nice and is still out of date. The Bloomberg charts are better than nothing, and they are free, but they are also sloppy and nowhere near as good as the previous chart format that accurately showed the day's action in a visually pleasing manner, even though the corresponding chart was incorrect. The interactive map is a nice option, but does nothing for a point in time clip, especially if the chart is not even accurate. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

JPMorgan, Goldman Keep Investors in Dark on European Debt Risk ; Net Position Disclosure Hides True Risk Posted: 16 Nov 2011 11:25 AM PST Banks keep investors in the dark on trillions of dollars of derivatives risk by only reporting net exposure. Here is a net exposure example to show what I mean. Suppose I owe my sister Sue $250,000 and Uncle Ernie owes me $250,000. My net position would appear to be zero. But what if uncle Ernie is bankrupt or simply will never pay the loan back for any reason. I cannot tell Sister Sue, "I am not paying you back, collect from Uncle Ernie". Net position reporting only works if counterparty risk is zero. In my example counterparty risk from uncle Ernie is 100%. So what is the counterparty risk at JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs on tens of trillions of derivatives contracts? The answer is no one can possibly figure it out, on purpose, because banks are only required to disclose "net" exposure. JPMorgan, Goldman Keep Risk in Dark With that backdrop, please consider JPMorgan, Goldman Keep Italy Risk in Dark JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), among the world's biggest traders of credit derivatives, disclosed to shareholders that they have sold protection on more than $5 trillion of debt globally. Just don't ask them how much of that was issued by Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, known as the GIIPS. As concerns mount that those countries may not be creditworthy, investors are being kept in the dark about how much risk U.S. banks face from a default. Firms including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan don't provide a full picture of potential losses and gains in such a scenario, giving only net numbers or excluding some derivatives altogether. 'Funded' Exposure Goldman Sachs discloses only what it calls "funded" exposure to GIIPS debt -- $4.16 billion before hedges and $2.46 billion after, as of Sept. 30. Those amounts exclude commitments or contingent payments, such as credit-default swaps, said Lucas van Praag, a spokesman for the bank. JPMorgan said in its third-quarter SEC filing that more than 98 percent of the credit-default swaps the New York-based bank has written on GIIPS debt is balanced by CDS contracts purchased on the same bonds. The bank said its net exposure was no more than $1.5 billion, with a portion coming from debt and equity securities. The company didn't disclose gross numbers or how much of the $1.5 billion came from swaps, leaving investors wondering whether the notional value of CDS sold could be as high as $150 billion or as low as zero. Counterparty Clarity "Their position is you don't need to know the risks, which is why they're giving you net numbers," said Nomi Prins, a managing director at New York-based Goldman Sachs until she left in 2002 to become a writer. "Net is only as good as the counterparties on each side of the net -- that's why it's misleading in a fluid, dynamic market." Investors should want to know how much defaulted debt the banks could be forced to repay because of credit derivatives and how much they'd be in line to receive from other counterparties, Prins said. In addition, they should seek to find out who those counterparties are, she said. The "Investment-Grade" Non-Guarantee By the way, investors are kept in the dark on derivatives risk in general, not just on exposure to Europe. By now, everyone should know how useless an AAA-rated guarantee is, let alone "investment-grade" that may be one step above junk. How long did GM bonds sit as "investment-grade"? Nonetheless the article reports JPMorgan buys protection only from firms outside the five countries that are "either investment-grade or well-supported by collateral arrangements" as if that was supposed to alleviate concerns. "Well-supported by collateral" is one thing; relying on "investment-grade" is another. Uncle Ernie was investment-grade when I made the loan. He is bankrupt now. Greece was "investment grade" and Greece is bankrupt now. "Investment-grade" is a useless measure of risk  that "nets" to zero disclosure of the true-risk taken by derivatives-king JP Morgan, Godlman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and any other bank attempting to pull the wool over investor's eyes with meaningless phrases instead of full disclosure. By the way, what are these organizations doing with tens-of-trillions of derivatives in the first place? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

European Government Bond Market "Frozen" says Bank of Italy Managing Director; ECB Steps in But Rally Fails to Hold Posted: 16 Nov 2011 08:31 AM PST An official for the Bank of Italy says Bonds Bids, Offers Show Government Bond Market "Frozen". Spreads between bid and ask government bond prices indicate markets are "frozen," said Franco Passacantando, Bank of Italy's Managing Director for Central Banking, Markets and Payment System in Milan today. The European Central Bank is "almost exclusively buying Spanish and Italian bonds," he added. ECB Steps in But Rally Fails to Hold Yield on 10-Year Italian bonds opened above 7% for the second consecutive day but the ECB acting as buyer of only result stepped in to push the yield down to 6.75%. The rally failed to hold, and the 10-year Italian bond yield now sits at 6.95%. Bloomberg reports Italian Yields at 7 Percent for Second Day as ECB Rally Fails to Hold Italian five- and 10-year bonds yielded more than 7 percent for a second day as the securities failed to hold an earlier advance after the European Central Bank was said to step up purchases of the nation's debt. Spanish 10-year bonds fell for a third day amid speculation yields will surge at tomorrow's auction of up to 4 billion euros ($5.4 billion) of securities due in January 2022. German bonds declined after the nation got fewer bids than the maximum sales target in an auction of two-year notes, and Chancellor Angela Merkel said the country is ready to cede some sovereignty to strengthen the euro area. "There's still no credible backstop for Italy and Spain and the ECB buying on the current scale is just far too small to have any impact," said Jamie Searle, a fixed-income strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London. "There's a Spanish auction tomorrow, which will be a pretty clear test of appetite. The yield level is likely to be pretty punitive." The ECB was said by two people with knowledge of the trades to have bought larger-than-usual sizes and quantities of Italian debt under its Securities Market Program today. It also bought Spanish bonds, the people said. A spokesman for the ECB in Frankfurt declined to comment. 'Binary' Market "The European bond market is becoming very binary, and ECB-dependent," said Mohit Kumar, head of European interest- rate strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. "Whenever the ECB steps in, the market likes it, when it steps back, you see pressure. There are no real buyers." "Risk-Free" Market is Frozen A quick check shows Spanish 10-Year bonds at 6.40%, the high yield of the day, up about 6 basis points. Spanish 2-year government bonds yield 5.40%, up 10 basis points and also at the high of the day. Bond Market Spits in ECB's Face   Spanish 5-year bonds opened at  5.82%, a euro-era tie for record high, improved to 5.62% but now sit  at 5.77% back close to the high. The bond market is effectively spitting in the ECBs face. Please recall that European banks are leveraged to the hilt on these bonds, because they are considered "risk free", with zero chance of default. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Ron Paul Moves Into 4-Way Tie in Iowa Caucus Polls Despite Lack of Media Attention; Fox News Gives Ron Paul 5 Seconds; The Ron Paul "Distraction" Posted: 16 Nov 2011 12:50 AM PST It's now a four-way virtual dead heat in the Iowa caucuses with Ron Paul clustered in the group at the top. This is in spite of lack of media attention by the press, especially Fox News which gave Ron Paul a 5-second mention regarding recent polls. Ron Paul Moves Into 4-Way Tie CBS News reports New poll shows 4-way tie in Iowa as Ron Paul moves to top tier A new Bloomberg poll of likely caucus participants shows a four-way tie in Iowa, with Rep. Ron Paul joining Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain in the top tier of candidates. Underscoring the uncertainty in the race, 60 percent of respondents said they could be persuaded to back someone other than their first choice for the nomination. The poll, conducted November 10 - 12 by the West Des Moines-based firm Selzer & Co, shows Cain in the lead with 20 percent, while Paul comes in at 19 percent. Romney wins 18 percent support, and Gingrich earns 17 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The focus on economic issues has likely advantaged Paul, who is known for his strong libertarian views. The Texas congressman wins the most support, 32 percent, from likely caucus-goers who say they've made up their minds. Romney wins 25 percent of those who are decided, followed by Gingrich at 17 percent. On top of that, 69 percent of Iowa voters who supported Paul in 2008 are once again supporting him. Republican Dead Heat in Iowa Bloomberg reports on the Republican Dead Heat in Iowa A Bloomberg News poll shows Cain at 20 percent, Paul at 19 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Gingrich at 17 percent among the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating contests seven weeks away. Economic issues such as jobs, taxes and government spending are driving voter sentiment, rather than such social issues as abortion and gay marriage, the poll finds. Only about a quarter of likely caucus-goers say social or constitutional issues are more important to them, compared with 71 percent who say fiscal concerns. The poll reflects the race's fluidity, with 60 percent of respondents saying they still could be persuaded to back someone other than their top choice, and 10 percent undecided. Paul's support is more solidified than his rivals, while Cain's is softer. All of the major contenders have issue challenges to address. Among Paul supporters who backed him in the 2008 caucuses, 69 percent are still with him now. Poll participant Sarah Stang, 78, a retired teacher who lives in Osage, Iowa, said she switched parties four years ago so she could vote for Paul. "He doesn't want to raise taxes on us middle- and low- income people," she said, adding that she "loves" his challenges to the Federal Reserve. "They have way too much power. They should let the marketplace do what it's supposed to," she said. Fox News Gives Ron Paul 5 Seconds Huntington News reports Fox News Gives Paul Five Second Mention Based on the most recent Iowa caucuses Bloomberg News poll, the four Republican candidates are running a too close to call race. The poll taken Nov. 10-12 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%. Herman Cain leads with 20%, followed by Ron Paul 19%, Mitt Romney 18% and Newt Gingrich 17%. According to the poll, 71% of the caucus goers have "fiscal" issues on their minds not social or constitutional ones. Paul backers have not pulled in their daggers regarding Fox News and CBS News. One writes that Fox did a "five second" on the Iowa poll's man in second place. The commentator stated, "they spent the next 20 minutes talking about Gingrich, Cain, Romney and … Perry. Nothing about the guy in second place." The Ron Paul "Distraction" RT News discusses the "Ron Paul Distraction" Less than two months before the Iowa caucuses occur — the next monumental step in the course of events leading up to the Republican Party makes their nomination for the presidency — Texas Congressman Ron Paul has taken the lead in the latest poll. Paul resurgence comes despite a serious lack of attention from the mainstream media, who have time and time again downplayed the candidate's campaign, instead offering coverage to other candidates such as Herman Cain and Mitt Romney. During last week's debate, CNBC only awarded Paul 89 seconds to respond to questions during the televised portion of the event. According to the latest polling from Bloomberg, however, that might have been enough to give Paul the most powerful chance at the White House yet. "If I were Romney and Perry, I would be thinking of a way to get Ron Paul off the stage because he is a distraction," Republican strategist Bradley Blakeman explained to Fox Business in earlier in the race. The "Real" Distractions The "real" distractions are Herman Cain and his sexual allegations, Newt Gingrich with three marriages and a record of failed leadership, Rick Perry who cannot even remember his own three-point proposal to cut government departments, and war-mongering Mitt Romney who does not know an damn thing about trade policy but did create the essential basis of Obama's reviled health care plan. Ron Paul has no such distractions, and that is why the media ignores him in general. Fox News ignores Paul for a different reason: Fox News favors a war monger, which means anyone but Ron Paul. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Selloff in European Debt Continues; Spanish Five-Year Government Note Yield Increases to Euro-Era Record 5.82% Posted: 16 Nov 2011 12:29 AM PST The selloff in European debt continues. Were it not for the ECB loading up its balance sheet with the garbage, no telling how high yields would be. Nonetheless, Spanish Five-Year Government Note Yield Increases to Euro-Era Record 5.82% Spanish five-year notes fell for a third straight day, driving the yield 11 basis points higher to 5.82 percent at 7:35 a.m. London time. That's the highest since before the euro was created in 1999. Italian five-year notes also fell for a third day, pushing the yield up nine basis points to 7.12 percent. Expect the ECB to intervene any time now, probably as I am typing at 2:30 AM Central. However, don't expect ECB intervention to do any long-term good, because it won't. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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