vineri, 6 ianuarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Barnes & Noble in Trouble; What's the Next Chapter?

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 04:45 PM PST

Retail sales are up but profits are down as noted in Profit Warnings at Target, Kohl's, J. C. Penney, American Eagle

However, shrinking profits are one thing, huge losses another.

On Thursday, Barnes & Noble increased its projected loss per share for the current fiscal year to between $1.10 and $1.40, from the 30 cents to 70 cents it reaffirmed one month ago.

I have commented before that brick-and-mortar book stores are in serious trouble. It's time to move Barnes & Noble to the top of the list.

The Wall Street Journal reports Barnes & Noble Seeks Next Chapter
The nation's largest bookstore chain warned Thursday it would lose twice as much money this fiscal year as it previously expected, and said it is weighing splitting off its growing Nook digital-book business from its aging bookstores.

Ironically, Barnes & Noble had been one of the first to recognize the potential of digital books. In 1998, it invested in NuvoMedia Inc., maker of the Rocket eBook reader, and the bookseller actively supported digital-book sales. But in 2003, it exited the still-nascent business, saying there wasn't any profit in it.

It wasn't until 2009 that Barnes & Noble re-entered the business, introducing its Nook e-reader. By then, Amazon had been selling its Kindle device for about two years, and was offering best sellers for $9.99, a fraction of what hardcover best sellers are priced at.

Apple introduced its iPad tablet in January 2010. Amazon responded with its competing Kindle Fire tablet this past September, and in November, Barnes & Noble introduced its Nook Tablet.

To promote the Nook, the retailer returned to national TV advertising in 2010, after a 14-year hiatus, buying spots on popular programs such as "American Idol."

The heavy Nook investment has squeezed Barnes & Noble's bottom line.
Barnes & Noble said in a statement on Thursday it was "in discussions with strategic partners including publishers, retailers and technology companies in international markets." It said that could lead to expanding the Nook business overseas.

What's the "Next Chapter"?

The Journal reports Barnes & Noble is also considering a plan to spin off its Nook business. If it does, can it make a profit selling books the old-fashioned way? If it doesn't, does if have the resources to compete against Amazon and Apple?

Either way, the "Next Chapter" for Barnes & Noble just might be bankruptcy court. It took me a second to catch the play on words in the WSJ article because the first thought I had was "Chapter 7" and a word was missing.

Bear in mind, even if that happens, it can take years to play out. GM was terminally ill for a decade before it succumbed to the inevitable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Employment Trends Since 1955

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 11:41 AM PST

Reader Tim Wallace sent some comments and a nice chart in response to Nonfarm Payroll +200,000 ; Labor Force Drops Another 50,000 ; Those Not in Labor Force Rises by 194,000 ; Unemployment Rate 8.5%; Notes from Trim Tabs on the BLS Report

Wallace writes ....
Hello Mish

On today's labor report: Note how the labor force has flat lined for four years even though population growth has averaged 1.5 million for the past 55 years. From 1993 to 2007 population growth was 1.7 million per year!

Thus, the labor force should not suddenly turn flat since retirements do not even come close to explaining the chart. Yet, suddenly the work force has just been frozen in time although the population continues on the same upward trend.

The work force is literally one million smaller than during Bush's last year in office. This is statistically impossible, at least judging from historic trends.

We also are still 5.6 million people below the employment number of the peak year in 2007. So, practically speaking we have approximately 11.6 million more people unemployed than in 2007.

If we add the additional 6 million that should be counted as available for the labor force, the unemployment number at the U-3 level surges past 11% as you have said numerous times.

Tim

Employment Trends



click on chart for sharper image

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

LPS Mortgage Monitor Shows Little Improvement in New Problem Loan Rates, First Time Delinquencies Slowly Rising Since April, Cures to Current Status Decline

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 10:39 AM PST

The LPS' Mortgage Monitor Report Shows Halt in Delinquency Decline; Foreclosure Starts Down Nearly 30 Percent in November. Via Email ...
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Jan. 6, 2012 - The November Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. hows that while mortgage delinquencies at the end of November 2011 were nearly 25 percent less than the January 2010 peak, the trend toward fewer loans becoming delinquent, which dominated 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, appears to have halted. At the same time, new problem loans - those loans seriously delinquent as of the end of November that were current six months prior - have not improved significantly in the last year. This degree of stagnation indicates that while the situation is not getting markedly worse, it is not improving either, and inventories of troubled loans remain significantly higher than pre-crisis levels across the board.
Here are a sampling of charts from the December 2011 Mortgage Performance Observations

click on any chart for sharper image

Delinquencies vs. Foreclosures



New Problem Loan Rates



First Time Delinquencies Slowly Rising




Cures to Current Decline



Foreclosures back to 90+ Days Delinquent



History suggests those rollbacks from foreclosure to 90+ days delinquent will soon be back in foreclosure and eventually REO (bank real estate owned).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Nonfarm Payroll +200,000 ; Labor Force Drops Another 50,000 ; Those Not in Labor Force Rises by 194,000 ; Unemployment Rate 8.5%; Notes from Trim Tabs on the BLS Report

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 08:20 AM PST

Quick notes about the "falling" unemployment rate (Trim Tabs Comments Follow):

  • In the last year, the civilian population rose by 1,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 274,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 1,421,000.
    •  .
  • In December, the Civilian Labor Force dropped by 50,000.
    •  
  • In December, those "Not in Labor Force" rose by a whopping 194,000, In November, those "Not in Labor Force"  rose by a staggering  290,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
    •  
  • Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Notes from Trim Tabs on the BLS Report

Madeline Schnapp at Trim Tabs Pinged me with a few of her notes this AM.
Hello Mish

A couple of things to keep in mind re: the BLS employment December release.

1. December seasonals were -821,000 jobs (high, although not as high as January's will be, +2.1 million +/-).

2. The BLS survey reporting period contained five weeks in December as opposed to four.

3. The BLS survey is incomplete. The response rate in December was 71.5%.

Best,

Madeline Schnapp
Director, Macroeconomic Research
TrimTabs Investment Research
For Trim Tabs estimate for today, please see Whoa! The 10x Difference Between TrimTabs December Jobs Estimate of 38,000 New Jobs and ADP's Estimate of 325,000 Begs an Explanation

Revisions to November Report

  • November Payrolls Revised lower from 120,000 to 100,000
  • November Unemployment Rate revised up from 8.6% to 8.7%
  • November count of Those Not in Labor Force revised from 487,000 to 290,000 which helps explain the slight revision upward in November unemployment rate.

Jobs Report at a Glance

Here is an overview of December Jobs Report, today's release.

  • US Payrolls +200,000
  • US Unemployment Rate Declined .2 (from revised number) to 8.5% 
  • Civilian labor force fell by 50,000
  • Those Not in Labor Force rose by 194,000
  • Participation Rate steady at 64.0%, nearly matching a low last seen in 1984
  • Actual number of Employed (by Household Survey) rose by 176,000
  • Unemployment fell by 226,000 (194,000 of which comes from those dropping out of labor force)
  • Civilian population rose by 143,000
  • Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was +.1 to 34.4 hours
  • The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged higher 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours in November.
  • Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 4 cents to $23.24
  • Government employment decreased by 12,000
  • The private sector has only recovered 36 percent of jobs lost in the peak-to-trough period of January 2008 to February 2010.

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

After two months of increases, once again the labor force fell. This is not a good sign. Moreover, were it not for people dropping out of the labor force for the past two years, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

December 2011 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) December 2011 Employment Report.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 200,000 in December, and the unemployment rate, at 8.5 percent, continued to trend down, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, manufacturing, health care, and mining.

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted



Notice that actual employment is lower than it was nearly 10 years ago.

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Monthly Look - Seasonally Adjusted



click on chart for sharper image

Between January 2008 and February 2010, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs.

In the last year of the weakest recovery on record, 2.5 years old, the economy averaged about 137,000 jobs a month.

Statistically, 127,000 jobs a month is enough to keep the unemployment rate flat.

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey Monthly Details - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey Annual Details - Seasonally Adjusted



In 2011, the private sector added 1.9 million jobs, while government lost 280,000 jobs. Professional and business services had the largest employment gain (+452,000), followed by education and health services and leisure and hospitality (+427,000 and +268,000, respectively). These three industries contributed 60 percent of all private-sector job gains over the year.

To put the net 1,640,000 jobs in perspective, it takes about 1,524,000 jobs to keep the unemployment rate flat. The unemployment rate is lower only because those not in the labor force rose by 1,421,000.

Average Weekly Hours



Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours



Average Hourly Earnings vs. CPI



"Success" of QE2 and Operation Twist

  • Over the past year, average hourly earnings of all private-sector employees have increased by 2.1 percent. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was up 3.4 percent from November 2010 to November 2011.
    •  
  • Not only are wages rising slower than the CPI, there is also a concern as to how those wage gains are distributed.

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The BLS has moved to quarterly rather than annual adjustments to smooth out the numbers.

For more details please see Introduction of Quarterly Birth/Death Model Updates in the Establishment Survey

In recent years Birth/Death methodology has been so screwed up and there have been so many revisions that it has been painful to watch.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2011



Birth-Death Notes

Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That is statistically invalid.

Historically, it has been exceptionally rare to see negative numbers in birth-death adjustments in months other than January and July. Data for much of this year actually seems reasonable.

Household Survey Data



click on chart for sharper image

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 1,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 274,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 1,421,000.

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Table A-8 Part Time Status



click on chart for sharper image

Part-time status shows some improvement vs. a year ago but remains elevated and the data series is choppy.

Table A-15

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.



click on chart for sharper image

Distorted Statistics

Given the total distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers. Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate is nothing  but a statistical mirage.

The official unemployment rate is 8.5%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

While the "official" unemployment rate is an unacceptable 8.6%, U-6 is much higher at 15.6%. Both numbers would be way higher were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

In the last year alone, the civilian population rose by 1,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 274,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 1,421,000. That puts a huge damper all all reported unemployment rate statistics.


Things are much worse than the reported numbers would have you believe. The entire economic picture is on very thin ice given the clear slowdown in the global economy.

Addendum:
Please see a follow-up to this post: Employment Trends Since 1955

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Profit Warnings at Target, Kohl’s, J. C. Penney, American Eagle

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 12:24 AM PST

It easy enough to increase sales if you discount enough. Profits are another matter as I have warned repeatedly throughout the Christmas season. Nordstrom and Macy's did well but 4th quarter earnings estimates missed guidance in a number of high-profile retailers.

The New York Times reports Retail Sales Edged Up in December After Stores Cut Prices Sharply
Sales at stores open at least a year at major retail chains rose 3.4 percent compared with December 2010, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters, just above the 3.3 percent that analysts had expected.

But the cost of propping up sales was high. Profits "were a mess" for many retailers, said Paul Lejuez, an analyst at Nomura Equity Research. Consumers were buying less than retailers had expected, and stores had to mark down inventory to get it out the door by Christmas.

"Retailers came in with pretty conservative assumptions, and they were hoping to blow them out of the water — they really didn't," said David L. Bassuk, managing director and head of the retail practice at AlixPartners, a consulting firm. Retailers were resorting to promotions like " '50 percent off our whole store,' '60 percent off our whole store,' which is when you can see times are tough," he said.

Thursday's Retail Earnings Announcements

  • Target reduced its fourth-quarter earnings expectations to $1.35 to $1.43 a share from prior estimates of $1.43 to $1.53 a share.
  • Kohl's reduced its fourth-quarter earnings expectations to $1.70 to $1.73 per share, from $1.93 to $2.04 a share.
  • J. C. Penney reduced its fourth-quarter earnings expectations to $.65 to $.70 from $1.05 to $1.15 a share.
  • American Eagle reduced its fourth-quarter earnings expectations to $.33 to $.35 per share from $.40 to $.44 cents.
  •  Macy's raised fourth-quarter earnings expectations to $1.55 to $1.60 a share, up from $1.52 to $1.57 a share.


Much of the chatter from Black Friday on was more hype than reality. The bottom line - profit - looks anemic at best at many major retail chains.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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