Central Perk: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

luni, 13 februarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Japan Announces $130 Billion QE Program, One Percent Inflation Target; 4th Quarter GDP Unexpectedly Contracts 2.3%; Lawmakers Threaten to Take Over Monetary Policy
Cracks in Agreement in Greece, Finland, Germany, France; Of Duct Tape, Glue, Rubber Bands
Obama Proposes Massive Tax Hikes, Still Comes Up With $1.33 Trillion Deficit; Obama's "Race to the Bottom" Education Proposal; Dysfunctional Congress
Total Chaos; Riots Rage; Athens Resembles War Zone

Japan Announces $130 Billion QE Program, One Percent Inflation Target; 4th Quarter GDP Unexpectedly Contracts 2.3%; Lawmakers Threaten to Take Over Monetary Policy

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 10:50 PM PST

Japan's 4th Quarter GDP Unexpectedly Contracts at 2.3% Annualized Rate

The Financial Times reports Japan's GDP shrinks in fourth quarter

February 13, 2012

Japan's economy shrank for the third time in four quarters between October and December, after floods in Thailand damaged production, and a strong yen and subdued overseas demand hurt exports.

Preliminary government figures showed that real gross domestic product fell 0.6 per cent between the third and the fourth quarters, dragged down by a 3.1 per cent fall in exports and a 0.3 per cent decline in private inventories.

That is equivalent to a 2.3 per cent fall in GDP on an annualised basis, significantly worse than consensus forecast of a 1.3 per cent decline. The data also showed sluggish public investment, which fell 9.5 per cent on an annualised basis.

Hollowing Out of Japanese Economy

This is somewhat dated news from late January, but news that Japan 'More Than Hollowing Out' With First Trade Gap Since 1980 fits in nicely to help explain the article that follows.

Jan 25, 2012

Japan's first annual trade gap since 1980, driven by an energy-import surge as nuclear plants shut down and by a shift of manufacturing overseas, threatens to undermine the nation's status as the world's largest creditor.

A third straight monthly merchandise trade deficit in December capped an annual shortfall of 2.49 trillion yen ($32 billion), the finance ministry said in Tokyo today. The data reflect the impact of the record earthquake in March, which sparked a nuclear crisis that shut most reactors, as well as longer-term shifts such as Nissan Motor Co.'s decision to move some production to lower-cost Thailand.

"This is more than hollowing out -- the government hasn't found any solutions to electricity and at this point I don't see that we're going to have nuclear power back again," said Masaaki Kanno, chief economist in Tokyo at JPMorgan Securities Japan Co. The deficit will "expand in coming years," he said.

Japan Announces $130 Billion QE Program, One Percent Inflation Target

The previous two articles will help explain this: Japan Announces $130 Billion QE Program, One Percent Inflation Target

Feb 13, 2012

In a move that surprised markets, the central bank added 10 trillion yen ($130 billion) to its asset buying and lending scheme, under which it buys government and private debt and lends cheap funds against various types of collateral. The entire increase amount will be for purchases of long-term government bonds, the BOJ said.

The BOJ also said it will set consumer inflation of 1 percent as its price goal for the time being, making a clearer commitment to end deflation than before when it defined the level as its "understanding" on long-term price stability.

BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa was grilled in parliament last week by lawmakers threatening to revise the BOJ law to give the government more scope to intervene in monetary policy, while the economics minister urged the bank to explore ways to make its price commitment easier to understand.

The central bank has pledged to keep ultra-low interest rates until an end to deflation is in sight, and defined desirable long-term price growth as consumer inflation of 2 percent or lower with the median for the nine-member board at 1 percent.

It had described this as the board's "understanding" of desirable inflation rather than an explicit price target, for fear of having its hands tied on policy. But this has drawn criticism as too vague compared with the Fed's 2 percent inflation target announced last month.

Lawmakers Threaten to Take Over Monetary Policy

In case you missed the key sentence, here it is:"BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa was grilled in parliament last week by lawmakers threatening to revise the BOJ law to give the government more scope to intervene in monetary policy"

The one thing worse than having central banks be responsible for monetary policy would be to turn it over to politicians.

If I Only Had a Bank!

As much as I despise central banks (and I do think they should all be eliminated - to be replaced by free markets), bureaucrats in the US or Japan would likely do much worse on monetary policy than the central banks.

Please consider this scary video by Ellen Brown.

The idea that North Dakota, a small loosely-populated farm state is in good shape only because it has a state bank is preposterous. Worse yet, Brown takes that absurd position to the extreme, with a proposal to end the Fed and put California politicians (state politicians in general) in charge of printing money to support union causes.

Should populist Ellen Brown get her way, I would have to rethink my US hyperinflation position. Sadly, Brown is another one of those who understands various problems with the Fed, but proposes a solution that is worse, putting state politicians in charge of printing presses.

Such economically insane ideas are much further along in Japan.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Cracks in Agreement in Greece, Finland, Germany, France; Of Duct Tape, Glue, Rubber Bands

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 02:42 PM PST

The latest Greek deal is unraveling in multiple places already. The EMU wants to hold it together but can't. Cracks are wide, deep, and widening.

Greek Party Leader Might Seek to Renegotiate Terms
Social unrest harms hopes of Greek reform

Sunday's explosion of street violence in Athens underlines the danger that political disorder may undercut Greece's attempt to implement the economic reforms required to avert a debt default, according to Greek politicians and economists.

Although parliament passed the measures, the rebellion and the urban violence raise the prospect that the next Greek government, which will take office after elections set for April, will lack the authority and determination to hold firm to the austerity course.

According to opinion polls, the election's most likely outcome is a victory for the centre-right New Democracy, but without an overall majority.

Antonis Samaras, leader of New Democracy and the likely next prime minister, and Evangelos Venizelos, finance minister and one of Pasok's senior figures, are both pledged to the austerity plan dictated by Greece's European and International Monetary Fund creditors. But Mr Samaras appeared to put his personal commitment in doubt when, before the vote, he suggested to his party faithful that he might seek to renegotiate the plan's terms if he became prime minister.

Unless and until all political parties agree to the terms Germany will not OK the plan. Yet, how can anyone agree to what they cannot control? Election outcomes are not cast in stone.

The Guardian says the same thing in Eurozone Crisis Live: "New Democracy wouldn't confirm today that their leader, Antonis Samaras, would sign the pledge. Without his signature, Greece still wouldn't get the bailout package."

Finland Seeks Collateral
Athens, Helsinki to sign collateral deal

Finland may sign a deal on securing collateral in exchange for its commitment to Greece's second bailout in the "next few days," Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen said on Monday.

A vote in parliament on Finland's participation in the bailout could follow next week, she told reporters in Helsinki.

Euro-area finance ministers share a "very strong" common stance in their view on what Greece must do, namely act on its pledges of austerity before more aid can be released, she said.

Finland, one of four AAA-rated euro members, last year became the only nation in the currency bloc to secure extra assurances that its commitments to a second Greek rescue be repaid by insisting on collateral.

This battle was fought once before and approved, but if there really is collateral, it places Finland first in line should Greece default. However, the previous collateral proposal was so watered down as to be meaningless. What happens this time, may or may not be the same story.

German Head of CSU Party Seeks Referendum on Euro

Seehofer calls for people's vote on euro

Horst Seehofer, the head of the Christian Social Union party, wants Germans to vote on whether the euro should be saved or not and is calling for a change to Germany's Basic Law, or Constitution, to allow that to happen.

"The CSU is for a people's vote in Germany over the basic questions about Europe. That's a good path to bring the European idea closer to citizens," Seehofer told the paper. The instrument of a people's referendum should be anchored in the German constitution, he told the paper.

A week ago the Ferdinand Kirchof, the vice president of the Federal Constitutional Court, told the paper that Germany "finally needs a direct democracy in the EU," saying Brussels had distanced itself from European Union citizens and from the home regions comprising the EU.

French Candidate Hollande Intends to Reopen Treaty Discussions

Hollande insists on fiscal treaty move

The main opposition candidate for the French presidency has spelt out his intention to reopen discussions on the new European treaty with all signatory countries if he wins the election, a move that would throw into doubt the results of months of negotiations by his opponent Nicolas Sarkozy and the German chancellor Angela Merkel.

François Hollande, the Socialist candidate currently leading the polls in France's presidential election campaign, brushed aside stern warnings from Mr Sarkozy and Ms Merkel that the treaty – due to be signed by 25 European Union countries in early March – would have to be respected by any new president.

The opposed positions of Mr Hollande and Ms Merkel – who has pledged to campaign for Mr Sarkozy – suggest a difficult relationship if he is elected. So far she has declined to meet him ahead of the vote. He said he would travel to Berlin for such a meeting, but added: "I won't knock at the door if she doesn't want to open it. That's unpleasant for me."

He said the treaty would not have been ratified in France and several other countries before the election, which will be held over two rounds on April 22 and May 6. "In France the treaty is ratified by parliament, not the head of state ... We have a window of opportunity [to renegotiate]," he said.

Of Duct Tape, Glue, Rubber Bands

Does anyone seriously believe this penned agreement is worth the paper it's printed on. Actually, what makes anyone think there is an agreement in the first place?

This agreement is similar to the effect one would get attempting to use use duct tape, glue, and rubber band, to hold together ~~blue cheese~~ crumbled feta cheese.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Obama Proposes Massive Tax Hikes, Still Comes Up With $1.33 Trillion Deficit; Obama's "Race to the Bottom" Education Proposal; Dysfunctional Congress

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 10:17 AM PST

President Obama made a pledge to cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term. Instead it exceeded a trillion dollars for four straight years.

Indeed, the president could not even make a pledge made in September to reduce the deficit to $956 billion. Finally, just to keep the deficit at $1.33 Trillion, look at the tax hikes Obama proposes.

Details below summarized from the Bloomberg article Obama Sends $3.8T Budget to Congress

Obama Proposed Tax Hikes

Expiration of Bush-era tax cuts for couples earning $250,000 or more a year
Limiting the value of itemized deductions to 28 percent couples earning $250,000 or more a year
Imposing a minimum tax for individuals with annual incomes of at least $1 million
Raise taxes on dividends received by the wealthy to 39.6 percent from the current 15 percent
$61 billion "Financial Responsibility Fee" imposed on banks
Increase in the terrorism-security fee charged to airline passengers

It takes all that just to hold the deficit to $1.33 Trillion. Chance of passage would appear to be about zero percent.

Republicans Miss Golden Opportunities on "Hard Choices"

To be fair, the budget mess is not entirely Obama's fault. Warmongers from both parties refuse to make serious cuts in the defense budget.

Moreover, President Obama said that he was willing to make "hard choices".

Republicans missed a golden opportunity to put Obama to the test with a plan to accept some tax hikes in return for scrapping Davis Bacon prevailing wage laws and ending collective bargaining for public unions.

One of the best things that could possibly happen for the nation would be to get rid of union collective bargaining and initiate national Right-to-Work laws.

Would the president have gone along? Probably not. But either way it would have been a win-win for Republicans. They would have shown willingness to compromise by making such an offer.

Republicans failed to put the president to the task. No one made any hard choices, not the president, not Democrats, and not Republicans.

More Misguided Stimulus

Obama proposes blowing a $476 billion in stimulus proposals to create construction jobs, another $121 billion on clean-energy vehicles, and another $350 billion in short-term jobs measures.

Unless something is done to rein in costs (hint: pass national right-to work laws, scrap collective bargaining of public unions, end Davis-Bacon and prevailing wage laws) taxpayers will overpay for services rendered (assuming the services rendered are needed at all, as opposed to makeshift work)

Freeze On War-Mongering

When it comes to war-mongering, the best the president can do is freeze the budget at $525 billion.

Proving that he is on Mars, Republican Representative Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said on ABC's "This Week" that Obama's proposal "hollows out" spending for defense and national security.

How holding spending flat at $525 billion while winding down operations in Iraq and Afghanistan "hollows out" defense spending certainly needs to be explained.

No Chance of Senate Passage

This is a pathetic attempt by the president, and it has no reasonable chance of passage in the Senate.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said "no," when asked on CBS's "Face the Nation" yesterday if Obama's budget had any chance of passage in that chamber.

"Race to the Bottom"

Obama wants toss another $69.8 billion at a misnamed "Race to the Top" education program.

I propose something vastly different. For details, please see "Student Loan 'Debt Bomb"; Obama's Misguided Proposal and Mish's Two-Point Alternative Proposal

Dysfunctional President, Congress

As noted in Obama Seeks to Prove He is More Like Romney; Obama vs. Romney - What's the Difference? don't expect Mitt Romney to be much if any better than the president. Both parties are dysfunctional and the nation rots in the wake.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Total Chaos; Riots Rage; Athens Resembles War Zone

Posted: 12 Feb 2012 11:39 PM PST

Coverage of the chaos in Greece is now everywhere I look. Here is a sampling of stories:

The Guardian
Greek protesters fight with police as parliament agrees cuts deal

As more than 40 buildings went up in flames, including two historic cinemas and several banks, Athens city centre was left resembling a war zone with cafes and shops smashed and looted as MPs backed the austerity measures by 199 votes to 74 in the single most important ballot in modern Greek history.

The chaos dominated one of the stormiest debates seen in the Greek parliament as MPs argued over a raft of strict measures demanded in return for international aid. Clashes were also reported in Thessaloniki, Patras, Corfu and Crete.

The violence erupted as tens of thousands of demonstrators – many clearly from the austerity-hit middle class in designer spectacles and trendy attire – converged on Syntagma square in front of the parliament to denounce the wage, pension and job cuts envisaged in the €130bn loan agreement. Banners proclaiming "Popular uprising!", "It's us or them!" and "Don't gamble away all we have achieved" were prevalent.

The Telegraph
Greece passes crucial bailout vote as country burns

The Greek parliament approved a deeply unpopular austerity bill to secure a second $130bn (£110bn) bailout and avoid a messy default after a day of street battles between police and protesters left Athens in flames.

More than 45,000 protesters, many facing steep cuts in pensions, wages and a bigger fall in living standards besieged the Greek Parliament in two demonstrations. A minority were met with tear gas by the 4,000 policemen after throwing fire bombs.

Spiegel Online
'Without a New Beginning, Athens Is Lost'

The European Union is demanding even greater sacrifices from Greece, despite the deal reached by politicians in Athens on Thursday. Facing more painful cuts, Greek citizens are back on the streets as resentment boils over. German commentators say it's time to finally face the truth.

resentment against the troika and the imposed austerity measures is reaching the breaking point in Greece, with the Germans being a target for particular scorn. On Friday, trade unions began a two-day general strike and demonstrators took to the streets of central Athens. Television footage showed protesters fighting running battles with police and throwing Molotov cocktails.

Many observers are losing faith in the idea that Greece can be saved even if the second bailout goes through. With unemployment at 20.9 percent and the economy in its fifth consecutive year of recession, it is unclear how Greece will ever be able to generate growth or begin to pay down its debt.

On Friday, German commentators argue that it is time for EU politicians to face the truth about the situation -- and accept that Greece will either have to default or leave the common currency.

Spiegel Online Photo Gallery
Clashes in Athens

Slide 1 of 11 : Reuters : Greeks are back on the streets as resentment of the troika continues to grow.

Reuters
Greek police union wants to arrest EU/IMF officials

Greece's largest police union has threatened to issue arrest warrants for officials from the country's European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders for demanding deeply unpopular austerity measures.

In a letter obtained by Reuters on Friday, the Federation of Greek Police accused the officials of "...blackmail, covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty" and said one target of its warrants would be the IMF's top official for Greece, Poul Thomsen.

The threat is largely symbolic since legal experts say a judge must first authorize such warrants, but it shows the depth of anger against foreign lenders who have demanded drastic wage and pension cuts in exchange for funds to keep Greece afloat.

The New York Times
Greek Parliament Passes Austerity Plan as Riots Rage

Louisa Gouliamaki/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
People looked at a building set afire by anti-austerity protesters in Athens on Sunday.

After violent protests left dozens of buildings aflame in Athens, the Greek Parliament voted early on Monday to approve a package of harsh austerity measures demanded by the country's foreign lenders in exchange for new loans to keep Greece from defaulting on its debt.

The new austerity measures include, among others, a 22 percent cut in the benchmark minimum wage and 150,000 government layoffs by 2015 — a bitter prospect in a country ravaged by five years of recession and with unemployment at 21 percent and rising.

But the chaos on the streets of Athens, where more than 80,000 people turned out to protest on Sunday, and in other cities across Greece reflected a growing dread — certainly among Greeks, but also among economists and perhaps even European officials — that the sharp belt-tightening and the bailout money it brings will still not be enough to keep the country from going over a precipice.

Angry protesters in the capital threw rocks at the police, who fired back with tear gas. After nightfall, demonstrators threw Molotov cocktails, setting fire to more than 40 buildings, including a historic theater in downtown Athens, the worst damage in the city since May 2010, when three people were killed when protesters firebombed a bank. There were clashes in Salonika in the north, Patra in the west, Volos in central Greece, and on the islands of Crete and Corfu.

Greece and its foreign lenders are locked in a dangerous brinkmanship over the future of the nation and the euro. Until recently, a Greek default and exit from the euro zone was seen as unthinkable. Now, though experts say that the European Union is not prepared for a default and does not want one, the dynamic has shifted from trying to save Greece to trying to contain the damage if it turns out to be unsalvageable.

The leaders of two of the three major political parties in Prime Minister Lucas Papademos's interim coalition government — the Socialists and the center-right New Democracy party — agreed on the new round of austerity after days of tense debate, maneuvering and threats. The leader of the third, the right-wing Popular Orthodox Rally, refused to endorse the measures and later withdrew from the coalition.

In a sign of how the crisis has frayed the political order in Greece, the three leading political parties all moved swiftly to expel lawmakers who had broken ranks with leaders in the voting.

Anti-German sentiment is also on the rise in Greece, where memories of the Nazi occupation during World War II are still vivid. "This is worse than the '40s," said Stella Papafagou, 82, who wore a surgical mask at the demonstration to fend off the tear gas. "This time the government is following the Germans' orders. I would prefer to die with dignity than with my head bent down."