marți, 14 februarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

EU to Punish Spain for Delaying Austerity Measures, Playing Games with Deficit Projections; Unprecedented Spanish Bond Front-Running; European Job Losses Accelerate

Posted: 14 Feb 2012 10:02 PM PST

The EU has accused Spain of overstating its 2011 budget deficit thus making it easier to make progress in 2012. Furthermore the EU is upset about delays in austerity measures ahead of regional elections next month.

According to Reuters, EU to punish Spain for deficits, inaction
The European Union is likely to take action against Spain's newly installed government by May for delaying austerity measures ahead of a regional election next month, sources familiar with the situation have told Reuters.

Three senior EU officials told Reuters that a final decision still has to be made, but the European Commission believes the new government overstated the deficit figures for 2011 so the current year's data would look better. Spain is also not addressing quickly enough the deterioration in public finances expected in 2012, risking the country's longer-term growth, the officials said.

Asked if the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, Olli Rehn, would take action and recommend that the bloc's 27 finance ministers adopt sanctions against Madrid, one of the officials said: "It is very likely."

"It is not that we want to. But if there is a deviation, and it is almost inevitable, then we will have to," added the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

With the economy heading for recession, Spain's deficit commitments of 6 percent for 2011 and 4.4 percent for 2012 -- based on a 2.3 percent growth in 2012 -- look unattainable.
Fantasyland Growth Projections

2.3% growth in Spain in 2012 is pure Fantasyland material. A 2.3% contraction is more like it.

Regardless, any contraction means Spain will miss its targets and in turn Germany will demand more spending cutbacks.

With unemployment at 22.9%, how long will it be before we see Greek-style pushbacks?

Unprecedented Spanish Bond Front-Running

Please consider Spain risks choking market with bond supply glut
Madrid is running far ahead of the euro zone pack in terms of 2012 sovereign debt issuance, smashing its funding targets by cashing in on strong demand from domestic banks flush with money borrowed from the European Central Bank.

To date, Spain has raised 29 percent of the 86 billion euros it needs in 2012 compared with 18 percent of planned bonds sales by this time last year. In contrast, Italy has raised 10 percent and Germany 11.5 percent.

"They see an open window and are trying to secure as much liquidity as they can... Everyone was expecting some front-loading but this is unprecedented," said Michael Leister, strategist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt.

"The glut of liquidity put in by the ECB is trumping fundamentals...which is why we believe that Spain and Italy are getting away these auctions at the levels they are. We believe it isn't sustainable and the effects of the LTROs (ECB long-term refinancing operations) will begin to wane," said Rabobank strategist Lyn Graham-Taylor.

The decision by rating agency Moody's to cut Spain's credit rating underscores the country's fundamental problems, which cannot be overcome by the provision of cheap cash to banks.
Spanish Farmers Protest Morocco Trade Deal
With unemployment at nearly 23%, one can expect protests over trade agreements. Consider this a start: Spanish farmers protest over EU-Morocco trade deal

Spanish farmers pelted the European Parliament and Commission office in Madrid with tomatoes on Tuesday in protest against a trade agreement with Morocco that they say could put fruit and vegetable growers out of work and add to high unemployment.

The reciprocal agreement lowers trade barriers on the entry of primary goods - mainly fruit and vegetables - into the European Union from Morocco in return for allowing processed goods into the North African country.

Farmers from the COAG union plan to turn up with 500 tonnes of oranges to another protest on Wednesday and further action is set for Thursday, when the European Parliament is due to vote on prolonging the agreement.
Europe Job Losses Accelerate

Bloomberg reports Europe Job Losses Accelerate
Global companies from NEC Corp. (6701) to PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) and AstraZeneca Plc (AZN) are chopping jobs more than three times faster than in 2011 as they brace for recession in Europe and a slowdown in China.

Announced workforce reductions surged to 94,369 through Feb. 10 from 26,561 a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Employers based in Western Europe accounted for the biggest group of job-cut disclosures, threatening to add to unemployment in the euro area already running at a 13-year high.

Such firings are now running at the quickest pace to start a year since a 2009 peak, when the European and U.S. economies shrank amid the deepest slump since World War II. Now, Europe's debt crises may help spur a 0.5 percent contraction in the euro- area economy in 2012, based on economists' estimates.
Signs point to a deep and lengthy recession, not the shallow recession forecast by economists. I seriously wonder what the heck they are looking at.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Ceridian Fuel Index Down 1.7% from December, Down 2.2% from Year Ago; Delay in Trucking Activity or Global Trade Slowdown?

Posted: 14 Feb 2012 02:09 PM PST

In a video, Ed Leamer, Chief PCI® economist hypothesizes "delay in trucking activity".
Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, explains the disappointing month-over-month and year-over-year numbers for the January PCI in the face of other indicators that suggest that the economy is turning around. In this month's report, Ed explores several hypotheses for the disconnect and concludes that trucking activity is delayed, expecting to see a surge in the coming months.
Ceridian Index vs. Industrial Production



Ceridian Index vs. GDP



Ceridian Index vs. Retail Sales, Inventory, Industrial Production



Year-Over-Year Diesel Sales 


For more charts and commentary please see Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®

Global Trade Slowdown

I do not buy the economy is turning around and the falloff in diesel demand represents "trucking delayed" any more than I believe the overall plunge in petroleum is "driving delayed".

Instead I propose something far more serious has started - a global trade slowdown. For details, please see Petroleum 3-Month Rolling Average Turns Sharply Lower; Negative Shipping Rates; Collapse in Global Trade

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Time For Some Honesty: No One Gives a Rat's Ass About Greece

Posted: 14 Feb 2012 12:41 PM PST

It's high time for some honesty. No one cares about Greece, except Greeks. Greece is a mere 2% of Eurozone GDP..

All this fantasyland talk of Armageggon if Greece exits the euro is total nonsense. The world will not end when Greece defaults. Indeed, the world might breathe a sigh of relief.

So Why the Fear-Mongering?

That answer is easy. Bureaucrats have said for too long and in too many ways that "no one can leave the euro".

This is not about what is best for Greece. Is is about "face saving" of bureaucrats whose collective faces deserve to be dipped something far more smelly than mud.

Rather than let Greece default gracefully, all the nanny-zone fools cling to false hopes, while Merkel blatantly lies about wanting to keep Greece in the nanny-zone.

It was in the best interest of Greece to not let them in the Eurozone in the first place. Then it was in the best interest of them to default 2 years ago, 1 year ago, and 6 months ago.

Instead, because Merkel does not want to take the blame for kicking Greece out of the Eurozone, we see all the extra impossible-to-meet demands that have Greek technocrats jumping through hoops backwards to meet.

It is a travesty of justice what the technocrats, the nanny-zone supporters, and the politicians have done to Greece.

Anyone with any common sense knew Greece would default. Furthermore, if you are going to default anyway, then the earlier the default the better. In the name of stubborn face-saving Greece was destroyed.

Portugal and Spain better pay attention because they are on deck for the same treatment. As soon as Germans have to pay up, patience with those countries will wear thin as well.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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