Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Warmongering Insanity: Canada Wants Military Base in Germany
• Ron Paul Blasts Santorum's "Atrocious" Liberal Voting Record, Doubts Santorum Could Beat Obama, Says Romney and Gingrich Do Not Offer Change
• Japan Posts Record Trade Deficit in January, 4th Consecutive Deficit Month
• Greek CDS to Trigger in March

Warmongering Insanity: Canada Wants Military Base in Germany Posted: 19 Feb 2012 08:34 PM PST It's time to bring home the troops, all of them, from every country where they do not belong (which is everywhere but home). Instead, I am saddened to report a WTF moment on warmongering insanity: Canada wants military base in Germany Canada plans to set up a military base in Germany under a deal that will allow the expanding Canadian military to increase its global reach. The new "operational support hub" – along with others to be set up around the world – will allow Canada to deploy troops and supplies to distant hotspots on short notice, said a joint statement by the German and Canadian governments as German Defence Minister Thomas de Maiziere paid a visit to Ottawa. It's still not clear when the base at Cologne-Bonn Airport will be set up or how many Canadians will be there, although troop numbers will not approach the tens of thousands of Americans currently stationed in Germany. De Maiziere told a press conference that he and his Canadian counterpart, Peter MacKay, are also discussing missile defence, the future of Afghanistan and the nuclear component of NATO defence capabilities – all topics of an upcoming NATO summit in Chicago in May. According to the Canadian CBC television network, Germany and Canada have recently been expanding their defence cooperation as both countries grapple with prolonged military deployments to Afghanistan. The Canadians have experimented with setting up temporary logistics hubs in Germany to support their Afghanistan mission – one successful such venture was recently launched alongside the American military in Spangdahlem, Rhineland-Palatinate. From Temporary to Permanent Insanity  Canada has gone from temporary insanity to a more permanent form thereof, though not as bad as the US which has troops in 140 countries. Here are a few comments to the article that I agree with ... Supernova says: W*T*F every creep from NA want their crappy basis in Germany. Go do your military exercise on glaciers that were given to you. Get the hell out of DE! Sebastian says: As a dual citizen, Germany/Canadian I think they should keep the military out. Carlm says: What are those Canadians thinking, eh? Let the Germans fend for themselves, they've got the money and the know how to do the job, if they choose. But why would they when others, namely the US, are dumb enough to do it for them. Christopheuk25 says: The Americans have about 80.0000 troops in Germany the UK yes remember them they still have 22,000 troops in Germany. There may be some French troops still in Germany though what good they would be is anyone's guess. The cost to keep US and UK troops in Germany for defense is astronomical to both countries especially in these serious economic times. Looks like Canada could use a Ron Paul type candidate as well. On second thought, every country in the entire world does. Indeed, the world would be a safer place and taxpayers everywhere would have more money in their pockets instead of feeding the military complex. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Ron Paul Blasts Santorum's "Atrocious" Liberal Voting Record, Doubts Santorum Could Beat Obama, Says Romney and Gingrich Do Not Offer Change Posted: 19 Feb 2012 07:25 PM PST Ron Paul went after Santorum, on Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union with Candy Crowley". "His voting record is ... from my viewpoint, an atrocious voting record -- how liberal he's been in all the things he's voted for over the many years he was in the Senate and in the House," Paul said. He had kinder words for Mitt Romney, praising his "acceptable management style," a qualification that he said Santorum and Newt Gingrich did not share. "But as far as issues go, I'm uncomfortable with all three of them," Paul added. "I think they are the status quo and they are not change -- they don't want to really change anything. That's what I'm offering." Paul is certainly correct about all of them. They do not offer change. I will write in Ron Paul unless Paul is the Republican nominee. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Japan Posts Record Trade Deficit in January, 4th Consecutive Deficit Month Posted: 19 Feb 2012 04:58 PM PST At some point, I suggest now, Japan needs to stop blaming the earthquake and tsunami for its collapse in exports. Furthermore, Japan is going to have difficulty financing its debt unless its turns the situation around quickly. That may not be likely as Japan logs record trade deficit in January Japan posted its biggest ever trade deficit in January, topping the previous record seen during the financial crisis in 2009, Ministry of Finance data showed On Monday, underlining concerns that a persistent trade gap may undermine the country's ability to finance its debt. The trade deficit stood at 1.475 trillion yen ($18.59 billion), against median market forecast for 1.468 trillion yen, marking a fourth straight month of deficit, as weak global demand and a strong yen hurt exports and robust fuel demand boosts imports. Exports fell 9.3 percent from a year earlier, down for a fourth straight month. That compared with a 9.5 percent drop expected by economists, following an 8.0 percent decline in the year to December. Japan logged an annual trade deficit in 2011 for the first time in 31 years as the March disaster, a global slowdown and a strong yen dealt a blow to an export-reliant economy. Imports Up Exports Down Imports rose 9.8 percent from a year ago and energy prices are one of the reasons. Japan needs alternate energy sources following the shutdown of its nuclear reactors. While rising imports may still be blamed on the tsunami, the collapse in exports has a different reason. Europe is in a major slowdown and more US consumers are happy with GM and Ford autos. This does not bode well for Japan. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Greek CDS to Trigger in March Posted: 19 Feb 2012 10:02 AM PST Whether or not Greece stays in the Eurozone and for how long is still debatable, but Greek CDS contracts are set to trigger next month after Greek parliament retroactively inserts collective action clauses (CACs) forcing all debt-holders to participate in the next deal. Bear in mind that forced restructuring is the trigger, not the insertion of the CAC language itself. The Financial Times reports Greece sets date for €200bn debt swap Greece plans to launch a debt swap next month for private bondholders as part of a second €130bn bail-out expected to be approved on Monday by eurozone finance ministers, a government official said on Saturday. The official said the swap, which would cover €200bn of Greek sovereign debt, would take place between March 8 and March 11, only days before Athens is due to repay a €14.4bn bond maturing on March 20. As a first step towards completing the deal, the Greek parliament is set to pass legislation next week on so-called collective action clauses, with the aim of forcing a minority of "holdout" investors to take losses of around 70 per cent on their holdings. The debt swap would offer bondholders a cash sweetener of 10-15 per cent of their holdings, plus new 30-year bonds with a coupon of around 3.75 per cent, which could increase if Greece achieves higher than forecast growth rates An Athens banker with knowledge of the swap negotiations said the size of the cash payment and the final interest rate would be set by eurozone officials ahead of Monday's meeting of finance ministers. Default Ducks Lined Up As noted earlier, the ECB will get preferential treatment on its bonds, exchanging them at par. After the swap, the ducks will then be lined up for the Troika to find some excuse to deny Greece payments or request still more austerity measures that Greek politicians refuse to go along with. In theory, the Greek mess could fester for years, I just highly doubt it will. A hard default will not be as disorderly as most claim, especially from the point of view of the rest of the Eurozone. There are only $3.2 billion or so  Net CDS Contracts still floating around, a trivial number these days. I have seen reports as low as $2.8 billion. Last month it was $4 billion. Greece is in a hopeless situation until it exits the Eurozone. German officials seems to have figured that out even if the Eurocrats have not. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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