vineri, 9 martie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Another Plunge in 3-Month Rolling Average of Petroleum and Gasoline Usage

Posted: 09 Mar 2012 11:19 PM PST

The following chart shows U.S. petroleum and gasoline usage for December-February compared with the same three months in prior years. Chart is courtesy of reader Tim Wallace.

Note that petroleum usage is back to December 1995 thru February 1996 levels. Gasoline usage is back to December 2001 thru February 2002 levels.



click on chart for sharper image

All data derived directly from the Data 10 section of the EIA download.

The daily average of each week in the listed month adds to the monthly total. Some months have four weeks others five, but over three months this tends to average out.

Contrary to popular belief, the decline in gasoline usage has little or nothing to do with cash-for clunkers or improved gas mileage in cars unless one fantasizes that gas mileage improvements started precisely in 2007.

Wallace comments "If this trend lasts for the rest of the year, Obama's stated goal of a 15% reduction in greenhouse gases based off 2005 numbers may be met this year instead of his 2015 goal."

Should that happen, I wonder how many will be happy with the economic result.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Greece "Credit Event" Triggers $3B in CDS Contracts; Wolfgang Schäuble Issues Another Warning to Greece; Eurozone Exit Trigger Is Cocked

Posted: 09 Mar 2012 01:09 PM PST

At long last the ISDA has agreed that Greece in in default, and that default constitutes a "credit event".

Bloomberg reports Greece Deal Triggers $3B in Default Swaps.
Greece's use of collective action clauses forcing investors to take losses under the nation's debt restructuring will trigger payouts on $3 billion of default insurance, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said.

A total 4,323 credit-default swap contracts can now be settled after ISDA's determinations committee ruled the use of CACs is a restructuring credit event. Before the ruling, Greek swaps rose to a record $7.68 million in advance and $100,000 annually to insure $10 million of debt for five years.

The decision was unanimous, New York-based ISDA said today in a statement distributed by Business Wire. An auction to set the size of the payouts will be held on March 19.

Auctions will set a recovery value on the bonds and swaps sellers will pay buyers the difference between that and the face value of the debt.
Wolfgang Schäuble Issues Another Warning to Greece

The Financial Times reports Greek debt swap triggers massive payouts.

Billions of dollars are to be paid out in insurance-like instruments as Greece on Friday pressed ahead with the largest ever sovereign debt restructuring.

However, there was a long delay over the decision by the ISDA determinations committee, which is made up of 15 global banks and investment funds, that annoyed some investors.

Uncertainty still hangs over the CDS market as an auction process to decide the amount of pay-outs may not take place for another week.

Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest private bond fund at Pimco, warned that CDS had been undermined by the saga. "The rules have been changed here," he said in a radio interview. "The sanctity of their contracts is certainly lessened."

Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, said: "Greece has today been given the chance to make it. But Greece will now have to seize this chance itself."

In a stern message to Athens, Olli Rehn, Europe's economics commissioner, called the second bailout "a unique opportunity not to be missed" and said: "I now expect the Greek authorities to maintain their strong commitment to the economic adjustment programme and to rigorously and timely implement the policy package."

Greece's lenders are mounting an unprecedented surveillance campaign to try to guarantee the government's commitment. At least four officials from the commission's economics department will now be stationed in Athens full time – along with representatives from the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank – to vet government policies.
Eurozone Exit Trigger Is Cocked

Greece will exit the eurozone. However, the timing is still in question.

I suggest Greek politicians will not meet increasing conditions placed on Greece by Germany and that later this month funding will be cut off triggering a Greek return to the drachma.

If so, look for enough funds to be dispersed to Greece in the next couple weeks that allow a quick round-trip to the ECB to make the ECB whole. Once the ECB is in a no-loss situation, the roof can easily cave in.

The exit trigger is cocked. All it takes is for either Greece or Germany to pull it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Euro Sell the News Round-Trip

Posted: 09 Mar 2012 09:42 AM PST

The following chart shows the silly rise in sentiment over the last two day that "Success at Gunpoint" actually meant something good.

Euro 15-Minute Chart (2-Day Timeframe)



click on chart for sharper image

Following the announcement the deal would go through coupled with reasonable job growth in the US, traders changed their minds.

The euro rose from just above 1.31 to 1.33 and back again.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Nonfarm Payroll +227,000 ; Unemployment Rate Steady 8.3%; BLS vs. Gallup

Posted: 09 Mar 2012 08:25 AM PST

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,584,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,569,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,014,000.
    •  
  • In February, the Civilian Labor Force rose by 476,000.
    •  
  • In February, those "Not in Labor Force" decreased by 310,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
    •  
  • Participation Rate rose .2 to 63.9%
    •  
  • Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

Jobs Report at a Glance

Here is an overview of today's release.

  • US Payrolls +227,000 - Establishment Survey
  • US Unemployment Rate steady at 8.3%  - Household Survey
  • Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged to 34.5 hours
  • The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged higher 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours.
  • Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 3 cents to $23.31

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

February 2012 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) February 2012 Employment Report.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and businesses services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and mining.

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted



Actual employment is about where it was in 2001.

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Monthly Look - Seasonally Adjusted



click on chart for sharper image

Between January 2008 and February 2010, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs.

Over the last two years, nonfarm payrolls have added 3.5 million jobs. Of the 8.8 million net jobs lost between January 2008 and February 2010, 40 percent have been recovered.

Statistically, 127,000 jobs a month is enough to keep the unemployment rate flat. The average employment gain over the last two years has been 145,000, barely enough (statistically speaking) to make a dent in the unemployment rate.

Yet, the civilian unemployment rate has dropped from 9.8% to 8.3%.



Average Weekly Hours



Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours



Average Hourly Earnings vs. CPI



"Success" of QE2 and Operation Twist

  • Over the prior 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.9 percent. In January, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) had an over-the-year increase of 2.9 percent; growth in prices has recently been outpacing growth in earnings.
    •  
  • Not only are wages rising slower than the CPI, there is also a concern as to how those wage gains are distributed.

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2011



Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012



Birth-Death Note

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

Household Survey Data



click on chart for sharper image

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,584,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,569,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,014,000.

That is an amazing "achievement" to say the least, and as noted above most of this is due to economic weakness not census changes.

Decline in Labor Force Factors

  1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
  2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
  3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
  4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Part Time Status



click on chart for sharper image

Part-time status shows little improvement vs. a year ago.

Table A-15



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Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 8.3%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 14.9%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.

Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate.

BLS vs. Gallup

Gallup has the unemployment rate at 9.1% not 8.3% and the "underemployment" number at 19.1%, not 14.9%.

Bear in mind the Gallup numbers are not seasonally adjusted but the BLS numbers reported above are. Nonetheless, it's entirely safe to say that 19.1% is far closer to the truth than 14.9%.

Please see Gallup Reports Large Jump in Unemployment to 9.1%, Underemployment to 19.1% for details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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