luni, 2 aprilie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

My Wife Joanne Has ALS, Lou Gehrig's Disease

Posted: 02 Apr 2012 08:13 PM PDT

Today I'm going to share a personal struggle with you. This is news I've largely kept to a small circle of close friends over the past few years and is difficult to talk about. The time has now come to enlist the support of a wider community, and perhaps together, we can make a difference.

Running this site and publishing commentary as frequently as I do demands a tremendous amount of my attention. However, my blog is not the #1 focus of my life. That would be my wife, Joanne.

Joanne has ALS, more commonly known as Lou Gehrig's disease. More specifically, she has Progressive Bulbar Palsy a particularly aggressive form of the disease.

Joanne's father and grandfather both died of ALS, although the general claim is ALS is not hereditary.

ALS is painless, non-contagious, and extremely cruel. The cause of ALS is unknown, but motor functions of the central nervous system cease to function although the mind remains fully aware to the end.

The symptoms in the above link are what we are going through now. For a year she has been on a feeding tube, unable to eat or drink anything, including water. She now struggles walking.

Joanne is the love of my life. We have been married 27 years. In the past two years ALS has taken away most of the things Joanne loves including golf, kayaking, walking, biking, and dining out.

Joanne has lots of support from her friends. One of her best friends, Kathy, stays with us 4 days a week to help take care of Joanne.

There is another love in Joanne's life and that is our dog Raleigh, a MiKi. He is tiny, weighing in at about 8 pounds. We got Raleigh shortly before Joanne's diagnosis. However, we both already knew the score.

I found Raleigh online, from a breeder located in Virginia. The breeder's kids were studying state capitals and Raleigh was named after the State Capital of North Carolina.

The one thing ALS can never take away from Joanne is her spirit and sense of humor.

Joanne's laughter is not quite the same now as she cannot manage to say even a single word. Sounds like laughing, crying, and pain are primarily recognizable by pitch. Nonetheless, when Joanne laughs, she still lights up a room, and that will never change.

Communication

For now, Joanne communicates on a Boogie Board Writing Tablet and also with "Proloquo2Go" a very nice text-to-voice application on her IPad.

Her writing ability is on the downside and we are now investigating eye communication devices that can detect words she is looking at.

Raffle in Support of ALS

I am sponsoring a raffle for the benefit of ALS research. 50% of the proceeds of the raffle will go to the Les Turner Foundation, with the money specifically earmarked for ALS research.

The other 50% will go to raffle winners.

My goal is to sell 30,000 tickets at $200 each. If we can sell that number of tickets, $3 million will go to ALS research and $3 million to raffle winners in the following breakdown (assuming all the tickets are sold, otherwise on a similar percentage basis).

1st Prize $1 Million
2nd Prize $600,000
3rd Prize $300,000
4th Prize $300,000
5th Prize $300,000
6th Prize $100,000
7th Prize $100,000
8th Prize $100,000
9th Prize $100,000
10th Prize $100,000

If all tickets are sold, 1 in 3,000 will win a minimum of $100,000, and the lottery winner will receive $1.0 million.

You cannot beat these odds in any lottery anywhere.

Buy Lottery Tickets Today!

Please Support ALS Research.
Click here to Buy Lottery Tickets today!

Note: In addition to buying lottery tickets, you can also click on the above link to make a donation of any size. Every bit helps!

Corporate Sponsors Needed

We also seek corporate sponsorship for $10,000 a link, with 100% of the money going to the Les Turner Foundation. Corporate sponsors will receive a permanent link (for the 6 month life of the raffle), from the ALS raffle page to a website page of their choosing. Ads must be tasteful.

Please Email Mike "Mish" Shedlock to discuss corporate sponsorship.

This is a good opportunity for sponsors to reach new audiences for minimal advertising dollars, while helping a very worthy cause.

Thanks for your help and understanding.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Eurozone Unemployment Hits 15-Year High (and About to Get Much Worse); "Official Denial" In Spain

Posted: 02 Apr 2012 10:35 AM PDT

Reuters reports Eurozone Unemployment Reaches Near 15-Year High
Unemployment in the euro zone reached its highest level in almost 15 years in February, with more than 17 million people out of work, and economists said they expected job office queues to grow even longer later this year.

Joblessness in the 17-nation currency zone rose to 10.8 percent - in line with a Reuters poll of economists - and 0.1 points worse than in January, Eurostat said on Monday.

February's unemployment level - last hit in June 1997 - marked the 10th straight monthly rise and contrasts sharply with the United States where the economy has been adding jobs since late last year.

"We expect it to go higher, to reach 11 percent by the end of the year," said Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an economist at JP Morgan in London. "You have public sector job cuts, income going down, weak consumption. The economic growth outlook is negative and is going to worsen unemployment."

"With inflation remaining stubbornly high throughout the euro zone, there is very little hope of a consumer recovery," said Jennifer McKeown, an economist at Capital Markets.
"Official Denial" In Spain

I am amused by the official denial by the Spanish Finance Minister last week. Please consider Spain reveals deep cuts to meet deficit goal
Spain announced deep cuts to its central government budget on Friday as it battles to convince European partners and debt markets it can rein in its budget deficit in the face of growing complaints from the public.

The government said it would make savings of 27 billion euros ($36 billion) for the rest of 2012 from the central government budget, equivalent to around 2.5 percent of gross domestic product. The figure includes tax rises and spending cuts of around 15 billion euros announced in December.

The cuts come despite popular resistance - a general strike on Thursday disrupted transport, halted industry and saw some minor violence - and against a grim economic backdrop; Spain is thought to have fallen back into recession in the first quarter and has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union.

Speaking in Copenhagen after an EU ministerial meeting, Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said the measures would be implemented as soon as possible, adding that any suggestions that Madrid needed emergency international funds was "absurd".
Ding, ding, ding, the official denial bells are sounding loudly.

For more on the official denial theory, please see Eurozone Breakup Logistics (Never Believe Anything Until It's Officially Denied)

Here is a far more realistic comment from IHS Global Insight economist Raj Badiani.

"I suspect that the government could be forced to implement further austerity measures later this year, with lingering economic downturn set to place additional strains on an already perilous budget deficit reduction plan. The main risk is that the government's tax revenue projections for 2012 look too optimistic."

That Spain will come up short on its budget targets and GDP estimates is not a risk; it's a certainty.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

German Manufacturing PMI Back in Contraction, New Orders Plunge, Price Inflation Up

Posted: 02 Apr 2012 09:14 AM PDT

As expected (by me anyway), the Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI® shows Germany is back in contraction.
Weaker new order intakes lead to deteriorating manufacturing business conditions in March.

Key Points:

  • Output growth slows to only marginal pace
  • Sharpest fall in new work for three months
  • Cost inflation highest since July 2011

Historical Overview:



Summary:

The seasonally adjusted Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers' Index® (PMI®) dipped back below the neutral 50.0 mark in March, thereby ending two months of marginal improvement. At 48.4, down from 50.2 in February, the index pointed to a moderate deterioration in overall operating conditions, and was the lowest since December 2011. Moreover, March's PMI reading was six index points lower than the average for 2011 (54.8). The output and new orders components of the headline index have both moderated substantially since their highs at the beginning of last year. By sector, investment goods producers have seen the biggest slowdown compared with the rates of growth registered in early 2011.

March data pointed to a marked reduction in new export orders, extending the current period of decline to nine months. Survey respondents mainly cited softer global trade flows, with weaker trends in exports to China and across the euro area largely offsetting a recent upturn in demand from the USA.

A marked drop in purchasing activity at manufacturers contributed to reduced supply chain pressure and the fastest improvement in vendor performance since July 2009. Average cost burdens nonetheless continued to rise at a robust pace in March, with the rate of inflation reaching its highest in eight months.
Given the complete collapse in the periphery, German manufacturing will eventually plunge hard.

It is illogical to expect Germany can hold up Europe by itself, especially with a simultaneous slowdown in China. For details, please see China Manufacturing PMI™ Decreases at Second-Fastest Rate in Three Years.

US manufacturing appears to be chugging along nicely, at least on a relative basis, but the warmest weather in history and robust car sales led the way. Don't expect that to last. Headwinds are enormous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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