Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Spain Nationalizes BFA and 45% of Bankia; No Bid for CatalunyaCaixa, Bank Worth Less Than Zero; Der Spiegel: Germany Fears "Bottomless Pit"
• German Central Banks Signals Willingness for Higher Inflation; Catastrophic Uncertainty vs. Catastrophic Certainty
• 3-Month Gasoline and Petroleum Usage Still Declining
• Audit Shows Spain's Bankia Short 3.5 Billion Euros; PP says "We Must Help Bankia, It Has Deposits for 10% of GDP"
• Tsipras Plans to Nationalize Banks, put Moratorium on Debt Payments, Cancel Bailout, Halt Additional 11 Billion in Troikas Mandated Austerity Measures; Spanish Bond Yields Back Above 6%

Spain Nationalizes BFA and 45% of Bankia; No Bid for CatalunyaCaixa, Bank Worth Less Than Zero; Der Spiegel: Germany Fears "Bottomless Pit" Posted: 09 May 2012 11:17 PM PDT The implosion in Spanish banks continues. On Wednesday, Spain nationalized BFA, the 8th nationalization since the start of the crisis. After sinking 3 billion into CatalunyaCaixa, Spain tried to privatize the mess but there were no offers at zero euros. Clearly CatalunyaCaixa bank is worth less than zero. Meanwhile Der Spiegel reports "Bundesbank has no idea of what is happening in Spanish banks". Mish readers do. The Spanish banking system is without a doubt bankrupt. Let's take a look at half a dozen articles courtesy of Google Translate. Spain Nationalizes BFA It's official: Spain nationalizes BFA and control 45% of Bankia The Economy Ministry has revealed that 100% nationalize Bank Savings Financial, which control 45% of Bankia, while it has announced in a statement that the state will provide the capital "strictly necessary" to clean up group. The Government is convinced that Bankia, with 10 million customers and over 400,000 shareholders, leverage its potential to continue playing a major role in the Spanish banking sector. Apart from the operation of nationalization, it is expected that the Spanish government to inject the entity between 7,000 and 10,000 million euros through the FROB, an agency of the Bank of Spain. Spain "Invests" 33 Billion Euros in Bankia Please consider Bankia State support now amounts to 33,000 million euros The Bankia State support now amounts to 33,000 million euros since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008. Most of this figure corresponds to the guarantees that both the matrix, Finance and Savings Bank, as banks that participated in the merger have asked the Treasury and has yet to return. The last government a restructuring plan of the entity involved the injection of public funds by up to 10,000 million. Another 40 Billion Euros Needed Here is a number 100% guaranteed to rise: Government tightens provisions in banking, another 20 to 40 billion euros required The Government of Mariano Rajoy will be imposed on the bench in two batches sanitation of real estate assets that exceed the 75,000 million euros, since the initial 54,000 million would be added an amount not yet determined but will be located between 20,000 and 40,000 million. The new reform is a change in the initial approach made by the Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos, shortly after entering office, he announced that the bank needed to be sanitized at 50,000 million euros to eliminate the risk real estate. The explanation is that the new provisions will fall on the loan portfolio of the banking sector builder and promoter until now considered "no problem", about 140,000 million. The total exposure of Spanish banks to "brick" of around 320,000 million and the Government decided in early February that it was necessary to increase especially the provisions on toxic assets, some 180,000 million. Take a look at the numbers tossed around in that article. Amazingly, Rajoy lowered loan loss provisions from previous estimates. No Bid for CatalunyaCaixa, Value Less Than Zero Spain has already sunk 3 billion euros into CatalunyaCaixa, a nationalized bank. On Wednesday it sought to unload the bank to the highest bidder. There were no bids at zero euros. Kiss 3 billion goodbye, CatalunyaCaixa value to 'zero price' While the PSOE and the PP are engaged in a war of words over which political party has used more public funds to rescue banks, the Ministry of Economy continues with ongoing auctions nationalized entities. The most important is to CatalunyaCaixa, to which the state has injected nearly 3,000 million euros. Sources interested in staying with CatalunyaCaixa explained that due to the Catalan bank's expected loss is evident that own resources are of little or zero. An assertion that is supported by the financial group's total exposure to brick Barcelona, ​​in loans to developers and individuals. The figure amounts to about 15,000 million, of which 11,000 correspond to real estate loans to builders. Of these 15,000 million CatalunyaCaixa 4000 has already equipped, so that the maximum expected loss is calculated on 11,000 million. Of that total, the FDA will take 80% total, ie up to 8,800 million in the event that all assets related to brick valiesen not nothing . But the ultimate purchaser will have to deal with the remaining 2,200 million, almost the equity that has the financial institution. An asset may deteriorate further if the government tightens further obligation to provide healthy home loans, those customers still pay regularly. Sources interested in bidding say the most likely to have to ask for additional public funding to cover the transaction. One rationale is explained by the needs that have to refinance CatalunyaCaixa 30,000 million euros in wholesale debt. Thus, the net value of CatalunyaCaixa is at best a negative 11 billion euros (negative 2.2 billion counting 8.8 billion in additional government guarantees), but not counting losses on 30 billion in wholesale debt. Eight Nationalized Banks El Pais reports Part of war: eight institutions taken over or nationalized in Spain There are few things more unpleasant for a government to explain the public bailout of the banks at a time when citizens are the biggest cut social rights of its democratic era. That is the case in Spain. The Spanish financial sector, has spent over three years to present himself as one of the strongest in the world to become the major concern in Europe. The surfeit of real estate assets of the bank has already made the intervention or nationalization of eight banks. Between 2009 and 2010 involved two savings banks (Caja Castilla La Mancha and Cajasur) in 2011 were nationalized four others (CAM, which also was also seized, Unnim, CatalunyaCaixa and Novagalicia Bank). The lot is completed by the Banco de Valencia in 2011 (and its nationalization this year) and, once confirmed, the operation of Bankia. And in most cases, moreover, after mergers with public aid. The number of cases has increased from 45 to nine (not counting CatalunyaCaixa or Novagaliciabanco in the auction process). The partial nationalization of the BFA, the matrix of Bankia, is the most important aspect of this crisis. Germany Fears "Bottomless Pit" Der Spiegel reports "The Bundesbank has no idea of what is happening in Spanish banks" The German magazine Der Spiegel takes the events following the resignation of Rodrigo Rato as chairman of Bankia to emphasize the need for financial reform, not only in Spain but throughout Europe. The publication emphasizes that at this time, the Spanish banking system is built on unstable loans worth approximately one trillion euros and encrypts the Spanish banking rescue between 50,000 and 200,000 million. "Since that amount of money would be an overload for both banks to the government budget, experts believe that the Spanish government should seek urgent assistance to European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). However, Der Spiegel notes that Mariano Rajoy "resists this movement," because it would give members of the euro "a voice in governing the country." Also displayed are the magazine, also hang the disgrace to Spain as a country of high risk and, probably, "this will cause isolation of the international financial markets for a long time." Under the circumstances, says Der Spiegel, direct payments to the banks of the euro countries become "a sensitive issue." The German Government completely rejects the idea "for fear that their money disappear into a bottomless pit." In fact sources said that the German central bank, the Bundesbank, say they have no clue what is happening in Spanish banks. Bottomless Pit is Exactly Correct Spain, like Greece before it, is indeed a bottomless pit. This is not a problem any amount of austerity or reforms can fix. Is Spain going to come up with 200 billion euros to support a trillion in bad loans? Here is the answer: Not now, not ever, never. The sooner Europe faces that simple fact the better. Instead, ECB president "Super" Mario Draghi spawned off the LTRO (long term refinance operation) that was supposed to have solved everything. That LTRO actually made matters worse. Spanish banks levered up on their own debt, and now yields are back above 6 percent and the banks are underwater on those bond purchases. Expect Slow, Devastating Torture In case you missed it, please consider Top Tweet in Spain "Do as Iceland Did, an approach I endorse 100%. The only solution that makes any sense is a breakup of the eurozone, That solution is coming, the only question is how. The best approach would be for Germany to kiss the euro goodbye immediately. The painful approach will be more bailouts, more austerity, more tax hikes (and no reforms) in the same devastating manner that destroyed Greece. Unfortunately, slow, devastating torture appears to be in the cards. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

German Central Banks Signals Willingness for Higher Inflation; Catastrophic Uncertainty vs. Catastrophic Certainty Posted: 09 May 2012 07:12 PM PDT As Europe careens towards catastrophic certainty, German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble admits he is more worried about the uncertain rather than the certain. Please consider Bundesbank signals softening on inflation The Bundesbank, the most hawkish of central banks, has signalled it would accept higher inflation in Germany as part of an economic rebalancing in the eurozone that would boost the international competitiveness of countries worst-hit by the region's debt crisis. A future German inflation rate above the eurozone average could be part of a natural adjustment process as crisis-hit countries pulled themselves out of recession, the Bundesbank argued in evidence to German parliamentarians submitted on Wednesday. It followed comments at the weekend by Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, backing stronger wage increases, which would boost domestic demand – benefiting other European countries exporting goods and services to Germany – but could drive German inflation rates higher. Despite the Bundesbank's conciliatory stance on inflation, German policy makers have been among the toughest in insisting that Greece sticks to its agreed reform programme underpinning its bailout in the aftermath of Sunday's Greek election in which most voters rejected the plan. Speaking in Brussels, Mr Schäuble said that changing the bailout terms would unleash ''catastrophic uncertainty'' in financial markets. Catastrophic Uncertainty vs. Catastrophic Certainty For starters, higher inflation in Germany is not likely to stoke much demand. Such is the nature of German demographics. Furthermore, the idea Spain and Greece will be exporting more to Germany while all countries are still tied to the euro is complete silliness. Finally, it still has not dawned on central bank clowns and government bureaucrats this is a balance-sheet recession and ordinary rules do not apply. The best thing for Europe is a breakup of the eurozone and the sooner the better. Unfortunately, eurocrats cannot see the obvious and are hell-bent on preventing a breakup, citing fear of the uncertain. The irony is attempts to prevent what is certain (a eurozone breakup), unleashes the very "catastrophic uncertainty" they seek to prevent. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

3-Month Gasoline and Petroleum Usage Still Declining Posted: 09 May 2012 04:02 PM PDT The following chart from reader Tim Wallace shows three-month usage for February, March, and April compared to the same three months in prior years. click on chart for sharper image Tim writes.... Hello Mish Next month there may be a slight leveling off between 2011 and 2012 - still well down but less of a slope. Looking further ahead, I expect to see almost a flat line or slight downturn towards the end of the summer as the year-on-year comparisons get easier to beat. Regardless, as you can see the trend remains, with nothing good to see. Regards, Tim Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Audit Shows Spain's Bankia Short 3.5 Billion Euros; PP says "We Must Help Bankia, It Has Deposits for 10% of GDP" Posted: 09 May 2012 11:26 AM PDT Courtesy of Google Translate here are a pair of articles on Bankia, Spain's third largest bank. Audit Shows Spain's Bankia Short 3.5 Billion Euros Inquiring minds looking for a reason for the jump in Spanish bond yields to 6.08% note Bankia audit confirms that the accounts of 2011 are inflated The shareholders of Bankia known in the coming days that bank accounts are overstated. This was unveiled today the online edition of The World that uncovers the traditional audit Bankia, Deloitte, has detected that the accounts of 2011 in the matrix of the group are inflated. Sources have confirmed to elmundo.es Bankia that the auditor has filed a dissent in an overstatement of accounts Financial Savings Bank (BFA). This is the Bankia matrix consisting mainly of Bancaja and Caja Madrid and in 2010 received a loan from the not yet returned by value of 4,500 million euros. "These sources confirmed a report in the newspaper El País notes that the overvaluation would be 3,500 million, an amount that is considered impossible to obtain immediately by the financial institution without outside help," according to The Mundo.es. The Deloitte report has not been made ​​public, although the accounts were presented on Friday the market. A study by Swiss bank UBS has had access to elmundo.es, notes that BFA was not only participating in Bankia overvalued by at least 70% above market value, but also several portfolio companies. Looking for a reason for that spike in Spanish sovereign bond yields today? Now you have it. PP Pleads for Bankia Help Please consider PP says "We must help Bankia, has deposits for 10% of GDP" PP spokesman in Congress, Alfonso Alonso, said that "no choice" to find a solution to the problems facing Bankia capital, recalling that the bank has on its balance sheet with deposits amounting to about 10 % of GDP. Alonso, who called it "really complicated" the situation in the sector, defended a "second phase" of the financial reform to help organizations meet the sanitation required, which rises to 54,000 million euros for the whole sector . In this regard, said that the PP will try to avoid socializing losses Bankia, in order to gain "credibility and confidence." He also ruled that the cut of 10,000 million euros in health and education is to allocate to inject capital into this entity. "There are vessels," settled IBEX Down 2.77% News was unsettling to the Spanish IBEX Stock Market which fell 194 points, 2.77%, to 6,812.70, not quite a new low. For more on Bankia, please consider Spain to Spend €7bn-€10bn (It Doesn't Have), Bailing Out Bankia, the Nation's 3rd Largest Bank; Liar, Liar Pants on Fire Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Tsipras Plans to Nationalize Banks, put Moratorium on Debt Payments, Cancel Bailout, Halt Additional 11 Billion in Troikas Mandated Austerity Measures; Spanish Bond Yields Back Above 6% Posted: 09 May 2012 08:04 AM PDT Spanish Bond Yields Back Above 6% Yield on the 10-year Spanish bond is up 22 basis points to 6.06%, having hit a high of 6.08%. It's Not Contagion Expect to hear talk of "contagion" blaming problems in Greece as a spillover into Spain. However, the fact of the matter is Spain is in deep trouble no matter what happens to Greece. Tsipras Plans to Nationalize Banks, Halt Additional Austerity Measures Bloomberg reports Greek Leaders Given Bailout Ultimatum Alexis Tsipras of Greece's Syriza party squared off with political leaders before talks on forming a coalition, handing them an ultimatum to renounce support for the European Union-led rescue if they want to enter government. Tsipras said he expected Antonis Samaras of New Democracy and Evangelos Venizelos, the former finance minister who leads the Pasok party, to send a letter to the EU revoking their written pledges to implement austerity measures by the time he meets them today to discuss a government alliance. Samaras and Venizelos rejected the request. Samaras said he was being asked "to put my signature to the destruction of Greece." No More Cuts "The bailout parties no longer have a majority in parliament to vote for measures that plunder the country," Tsipras told reporters. "There will be no 11 billion euros ($14 billion) of additional austerity measures; 150,000 jobs will not be cut." Tsipras said he aimed to link up with parties in a government that would nationalize banks, place a moratorium on debt payments and cancel the bailout and measures such as labor reforms and pension cuts.  Samaras said that his party is prepared to support a minority government as long as it ensured Greece's membership in the euro and its national interests. Venizelos said Pasok's proposal for a national unity government with the participation of all parties with a pro- European orientation was the only solution. Greece must remain "safely" within the euro while pursuing changes to the bailout accord to boost growth, he said. Venizelos won't accept the mandate if it is handed to him and will ask the president to call a meeting of political party leaders immediately, Proto Thema reported today, without saying how it got the information. That meeting will either decide to call new elections or form a national unity government, it said. The group of EU, ECB and IMF officials known as the troika canceled a visit to Greece planned for the middle of May amid concerns the political turmoil could derail the rescue effort, the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported today, citing unidentified EU officials in Brussels. "The mission has not been 'canceled,' as there has never been a fixed date for the mission," commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj said in an e-mail. "As soon as there is a government, there will be a mission." The ECB declined to comment. What is Tsipras' Plan? Alexis Tsipras simply has to know that none of what he demands is remotely compatible with Greece staying in the Eurozone, yet he does not call for Greece to leave the euro. The reason is he would lose some support the moment he explicitly makes such a statement. Rather, he is saying all of the right things to win the next round of elections if he cannot work out a minority government now. In contrast New Democracy leader Samaras is a wishy-washy clown who is determined to stay in the Euro at any and all costs while pledging to work on changes to Troika bailout conditions. Given that no changes are acceptable to the Troika, Greece's days in the Eurozone are numbered. It will be a good thing for Greece (albeit initially very painful), once they finally get the nerve to tell the Troika to go to hell. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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