| My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs Posted: 17 May 2012 09:35 PM PDT Yesterday afternoon, my wife, Joanne went on to a better place. For those still on this planet, please remember to stop and smell the lilacs.  That picture is from our honeymoon on Mackinac Island, Michigan, about 27 years ago. Lilacs were her favorite flower. In lieu of flowers or food, I ask the living to consider a donation in here name to support ALS research, the disease that took her life. I wrote about the disease and an ALS fundraiser I sponsored twice previously. - April 2, 2012: My Wife Joanne Has ALS, Lou Gehrig's Disease
- May 15, 2012: ALS Update; I Still Need Your Help; Money Contributions From 22 Countries!
Results as of Thursday 5-17-2012 - Donations $14,931
- Tickets $236,800
- Corporate Sponsorships $20,000
Les Turner gets half of ticket sales so the direct benefit to Les Turner so far is $154,331. Donations From 23 Countries Donations have come in from 23 countries now. Click the second link above to see. Over the years many people have asked me to put up a tip jar. I refused. I have always thought the best information is free. That philosophy has served me well. I have never asked for anything, but I am asking now. If information from this blog, for free, 4-5 posts a day (for 7 years!) has made you money or kept you out of trouble, then please consider purchasing a raffle ticket or making a donation. If times are tough, and they may very well be, then please consider a cash donation of $10 or more. Every bit helps. Checks To make a cash donation by check or money order, please send a check or money order to Lacey Wood Mish Campaign Les Turner ALS Foundation 5550 W. Touhy Avenue, Suite 302 Skokie, IL 60077 847.679.3311 (Main) Any questions, please call the above number. Credit Card You can make a donation or purchase raffle tickets by credit card on the raffle site. Some people did not like entering the information fields required, however, the purpose is only to ensure the foundation knows how to get in touch with raffle winners. People move, phone numbers change, and email addresses change. It's as simple as that. Those who do not like disclosing personal information on a form (the site is secure) can send a check or money order for tickets or to make a donation. Philosophic Point of View Whether you make a donation or not, please stop and smell the lilacs. Joanne did, at every opportunity. Goodbye Joanne we love you and miss you already. 
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| Spanish Bank Debt With ECB Up 15.7% in April; Surprise VAT Hike Coming Up; Moody's Downgrades 16 banks; Capital Flight at Bankia; Scramble for Deposits Leads to System-Wide Cannibalization Posted: 17 May 2012 05:36 PM PDT Courtesy of Google translate, please consider the following bleak reports from Spain. Spanish Bank Debt With ECB Up 15.7% in April El Confidencial reports The Spanish bank debt with the ECB increased by 15.7% in April The debt of Spanish banks with the ECB shot up to 263.535 billion euros in April, that is 15.7% compared to 227.6 billion recorded in March, a new record, according to the Bank of Spain. This amount is outstanding entities resident in Spain still have yet to return to the European Central Bank as a result of the funding the agency has been granted previously.
The net financing granted in April by the Eurosystem to Spanish banks accounted for 68.8% of total Eurozone, which amounted to 382.712 billion euros. However, the gross amount of appeal does not collect the money that Spanish banks have borrowed from the ECB and have been redeposited in the body to receive a return of 0.25% a day.
The increasing difficulties of Spanish institutions to borrow from the interbank appreciate finding that the credit requested by Spanish banks headed by Mario Draghi school increased sixfold compared to that recorded in April 2011 (42.227 billion). Surprise Vat Hike? Hiking taxes in the middle of a recession is horrendous policy. Yet one should never underestimate the potential stupidity of bureaucrats. El Economista reports The Government is preparing a surprise rise in VAT for up to three points by 2013 Mariano Rajoy's government is determined to adhere strictly and without delay the requirements of Brussels to get the unequivocal support of the European Union to reform measures taken and to try to appease the markets. This is the VAT in the rest of Europe: average at 20.9%.
So, on Monday, the minister Luis de Guindos, acceded to the wishes of Merkel and European Commission to be the European Central Bank (ECB) who audit the Spanish banks. And now, the chief of government has already committed to some partners of his confidence that the government might have to climb two or three points in the VAT, by surprise, without waiting for 2013, as planned.
Specifically, Rajoy met last weekend privately with the president of the CEOE, Juan Rosell. A meeting that was held at the Moncloa Palace and that was unveiled yesterday at the meeting of the Board of the Spanish employers that some attendees described as "a funeral" to the bleak picture of the business leaders to draw on our economy.
And the funeral was the scenario that Juan Rosell took the opportunity to ask business leaders support unreservedly to government reforms, despite the critical position CEOE has kept tax increases approved for the Income Tax and Companies.
And it was at that funeral in which some of the attendees told that during his speech, the president of the employers said that while Rajoy is not in favor of raising the VAT, may be forced to do it, and surprise. Moody's downgrades 16 Spanish banks Reuters reports Moody's downgrades 16 Spanish banks Moody's Investor Service carried out a sweeping downgrade of 16 Spanish banks on Thursday, including Banco Santander, the euro zone's largest bank, citing a weak economy and the government's reduced ability to support troubled lenders.
All the banks' long-term debt ratings were downgraded by at least one notch, and some suffered three-notch cuts.
Thursday's move came after Moody's downgraded 26 Italian banks on Monday and followed a press report about a run at troubled lender Bankia, Spain's fourth largest bank. The Spanish government, which took over Bankia last week, denied the report.
Santander suffered a three-notch cut to its long-term rating to A3 from Aa3.
Moody's also cut BBVA's long-term rating by three notches to A3 from Aa3 and put the credit on a negative outlook. BBVA is Spain's second largest lender.
The government's borrowing costs shot higher on Thursday after data confirmed the economy was back in recession.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Wednesday his government, which is struggling to reduce the budget deficit, could soon have trouble financing itself in the bond market unless the pressure eases.
The government's strained finances are another risk for banks, since many have used cheap loans from the European Central Bank to buy three-year and five-year government bonds.
Through March, Spanish banks held almost 150 billion euros of Spanish government bonds, up from about 76 billion at the end of November. Capital Flight at Bankia Please consider Bankia have lost 1,000 million in deposits in one week Bankia customers have withdrawn deposits worth over 1,000 million euros since the government announced its intervention last week, according to data presented suggest the board meeting yesterday.
On Wednesday, Bankia not respond to Reuters requests asking whether there were bank runs Thursday and no one has commented on the information published by the newspaper El Mundo in its paper edition.
According to this method, was at the meeting yesterday with senior management where the CEO, Francisco Verdú, brought the fact of multi withdrawal of funds: Bankia days would have lost a similar amount to 1,160 million withdrawn in the first quarter.
The withdrawal of money from customers Bankia is due to the mismanagement of the departure of Rodrigo Rato for the entity and the subsequent nationalization. Scramble for Deposits Leads to System-Wide Cannibalization Here are the key paragraphs from the above article.
The competition from the big banks is a point of concern to the entity. In fact Santander is showing particularly aggressive in trying to attract customers disenchanted with Bankia have decided to withdraw their savings from the entity.
For his part, Jose Ignacio Goirigolzarri, has not made any statement on these data and harangued their managers to work hard to retain customers. The new president of the organization claimed that "Bankia is a solvent entity, which continues to function quite normally and that offers total security." Spain goes deeper in trouble every day. No one can possibly believe "Bankia is a solvent entity". In fact, the entire Spanish banking system is clearly insolvent. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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| German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble Tosses Hat Into Ring Seeking to Become "Grand Keiser for All Europe" Posted: 17 May 2012 01:20 PM PDT In the truth is stranger than fiction category, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble is calling for a political union "now" with a directly elected EU president (and of course he is the unstated logical candidate). Translation: Schäuble is running for "Grand Keiser of All Europe". Please consider Schäuble calls for closer EU integration Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, called on Thursday for the EU to move decisively towards a political union in the face of the eurozone crisis, with a directly elected president in Brussels.
In a passionately pro-European speech delivered in Aachen, where he was awarded the annual Charlemagne prize, Mr Schäuble said the economic and financial crisis made it clear that closer European integration was needed.
"We must create a political union now," he said. But he said that would not mean the creation of a European superstate, or a "United States of Europe".
A debate was needed on precisely what responsibilities should be transferred to European level, on the principle that whatever tasks could best be done locally, regionally or nationally should not be changed.
One answer would be to give a face to European political union with a directly elected EU president in Brussels.
Mr Schäuble, who is regarded as the most pro-European member of the German government, said the EU urgently needed to improve its negotiating capacity on the world stage, with a more effective common foreign policy, and international treaties signed by all member states together.
"We must have the ambition to do more than simply protect the status quo," he said. Wolfgang Schäuble (centre) receives the Charlemagne prize on Thursday  Today the Charlemagne prize, tomorrow the crown of the "Grand Keisership" Addendum: I am aware of the correct spelling of Kaiser. Keiser is a joke spelling that has a personal meaning but also seems appropriate for the job. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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| Euro area official sector exposures to Greece in excess of EUR 290bn Total; EUR 84bn Germany, EUR 63bn France, EUR 55bn Italy, EUR 37bn Spain Posted: 17 May 2012 09:08 AM PDT Via email I received an interesting set of facts from Barclays regarding banking exposures to Greece. Greece: Euro area official sector exposures in excess of EUR290bn Euro area official sector exposure
According to the French Finance Minister, F. Baroin, Greece's exit from the euro area "would cost France EUR50bn net, in addition to the securities held by banks and insurers in their portfolios." In the German press, it is reported that a Greek exit would cost approximately EUR80bn (EUR16bn from bilateral KfW loans, EUR20bn from the EFSF, EUR12bn from the SMP and EUR30bn from Target 2, based on December 2012 data, source: FAZ).
Here, we estimate the euro area's official sector exposure to Greece (bilateral loans, EFSF guarantees and Eurosystem) and show that the cost estimations mentioned in the press match the exposure if you consider a 20% recovery rate on Greek holdings. 20% is rather low, but not unrealistic given the outcome of the PSI and devaluation of the new Greek currency in the event of an exit. However, because of the accounting treatment of the different exposures and the presence of some financial buffers within the Eurosystem, the one-off, year-end shock on public accounts will be much smaller, probably around EUR100bn (1% of GDP).
Euro area exposure via bilateral loans and EFSF guarantees:
As part of the first Greek bailout package (May 2010), EUR53bn has been disbursed by member states out of the EUR80bn committed over a three-year period. These disbursements are in the form of bilateral loans between Greece and the other member states. In February 2012, a second bailout package was signed, but this time funds would be transferred to Greece by the EFSF and the guarantees passed on to member states according to (adjusted) ECB capital key allocation. This second package has taken over the unused funds from the first package and no further bilateral loans have been made since then. To date, the EFSF has issued EUR73bn out of the EUR145bn committed by member states. Altogether, the euro area states currently have a total exposure of EUR126bn, representing 1.3% of GDP.
Euro area exposure via the Eurosystem's refinancing operations and interventions:
In a Greek exit scenario, the Eurosystem faces losses stemming from either direct holdings of Greek bonds in the SMP portfolio1 or from Target 2 claims on the Greek central bank. Based on anecdotal evidence and central banks' balance sheet movements, we estimate that the Greek SMP exposure is approximately EUR35bn and that Target 2 claims on the Greek central bank are around EUR130bn.
Indirect exposure via the IMF:
Even though the IMF prides itself on never having made any losses on a programme, a Greek exit would certainly challenge this record. Potential losses would be redistributed to IMF members according to their quota. With 20% of the quota (link) the euro area would be exposed to a further EUR4.4bn.
Altogether, we estimate that the total official sector exposure to Greece is somewhere in excess of EUR290bn (see table below), representing 3.1% of (nominal) GDP. Because ECB capital keys do not exactly match GDP weights, the exposure in GDP terms varies from one country to the other, between 1.8% (Luxemburg, excluding programme countries) up to 4.5% (Malta, Estonia, see table and chart below).
Total Exposures to Greece
click on chart for sharper image Looking for a reason for all the pressure on Greece to stay in the Eurozone? There it is. Pray tell where is Spain going to come up with 37 billion euros? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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| Brain Drain: Businesses and Brightest Minds Flee Italy; Credit Crunch Italian Style Posted: 17 May 2012 01:39 AM PDT Brain Drain Courtesy of Google Translate, this time from Italy, please consider From the North-East and abroad, fleeing already 720 companies Farewell, ungrateful Italy. In addition to brain drain, we'll get used to the migration of entrepreneurs. The news coming from the North-East lab are not at all encouraging.
Until 2010 no employer has had the courage to leave Italian soil. A sort of waiting anxiety that charge went through the last part of 2008 and the two following years.
Explains Daniele Marini, a sociologist at the University of Padua and the Director of the North East: "Entrepreneurs have felt a great loneliness. And 720 of them already internationalized and holding sizes above the threshold of 10 employees, in 2011 the companies have decided to move abroad.
It remains to be seen how many entrepreneurs make the same choice in 2012.
Marini argues that choice in the book "Innovator of the Border", just published by Marsilio, "In the face of an institutional environment essentially static, ie where no desired reforms take shape, the government is not modernization, the level of taxation remains unchanged, the preconditions favorable to business life are reduced to such an extent as to suggest some to place in other countries where the fiscal and administrative environment allows them to remain competitive."
It is as if suddenly the toy was broken, cracks in the same constituent elements Venetian economy: the capital first of all, based on the triad family, capital, labor. Marini explains: "The crisis has changed the DNA of the North-East. A society that puts its identity in the work today is to consider it as a hassle. The families, however thrifty and highly oriented economy, fear of not having resources available to address such a long period of recession."
The summation of all these elements outline the framework that has led entrepreneurs "secessionists" to set sail. Credit Crunch Italian Style Also courtesy of Google Translate, please consider The credit crunch? Ask the EBA The solution to the crisis is growing. Virtually all agree on this. Even the Germans. The problem is that funding needed to grow. Especially businesses. But the credit supply to companies in Italy continues to be weak.
"They closed the taps, the banks have stopped doing," complained some time ago with emphasis Fancelli Mauro, president of the National Confederation of Craft Small and Medium Business in Florence.
The same bankers recognize the problem. "Not only have we reduced the new credits. But we're doing it furiously, "admits a senior executive at one of the five largest Italian banking groups.
The data reported by Mauro Fancelli for your region are dramatic: "In the first quarter of 2012 the bank has paid to Tuscan businesses for 33.5% less than the same period of 2011. The Monte dei Paschi di Siena, a leading institute in the region, has even been a decline of 70 percent."
"The worst of the credit crunch we have yet to see it," warns a second top manager at another establishment of the five largest in Italy.
With this investigation, Il Sole 24 Ore has wanted to find the reason for this phenomenon often referred to with two little words that English, along with spreads, are now common even in the chat at the bar: credit crunch - or credit crunch. Anecdotes From Italy My friend Francesco writes ... Hello Mish
The banks in distress list gets longer.
Two banks on chapter 11 by Bank of Italy in a few days. Last Saturday it was the turn to the Bank Credit Cooperative Monastier and Sile suffer to be placed under protection by the Financial Regulator. Last Friday was the turn instead of Tercas bank, savings bank in the province of Teramo in the meshes of the extraordinary finish.
A customer of mine have been required to close his position with that bank, he will never be able to repay its loans to 1.5 million eur in 4 months.
I expect a very difficult summer and in September, many businesses do not reopen. German firms will detect the best companies in the north east, at a very cheap cost, the other will close in a year.
In Italy we have two realities, Germany and Greece, in the same borders. The North, particularly the North East, has a GDP per capita equal to or higher than Germany, the South is in a worse condition than Greece. Obviously you cannot find the solution without reexamining borders. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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