Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Airbus to Assemble Jets in Mobile, Alabama; Start of a Global Labor War?
• Faber Says Germany Should Abandon the Euro
• US Manufacturing ISM Contracts for First Time in Three Years; New Orders and Prices Plunge; Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction

Airbus to Assemble Jets in Mobile, Alabama; Start of a Global Labor War? Posted: 02 Jul 2012 04:19 PM PDT Airbus is hoping to take US market share from rival Boeing by assembling jets in Mobile, Alabama. Airbus is a French-based company, jointly run by French and German management. Senator Rick Shelby (Alabama) is supportive of the move. Boeing, as one might have expected, issued complaints of European subsidies, as if US defense contracts don't in essence amount to the same thing. Both sides have complained to the WTO. Here are a few articles to consider. Airbus Fires Shot in Labor War The Wall Street Journal reports Airbus Fires Shot in Labor War Airbus announced plans to start assembling passenger jets in the U.S. starting in 2015, a move likely to affect labor and trade relations on both sides of the Atlantic. Airbus outlined the plan Monday at an event in Mobile attended by U.S. suppliers, airlines and politicians, carefully stage-managed amid potential negative reaction on both sides of the Atlantic. EADS shares rose 2% Monday in Paris. The company said it would create 1,000 jobs at its Brookley Aeroplex in Mobile, doubling the company's U.S. workforce. One assembly-plant job typically supports up to four at suppliers, Airbus said. Parts for the aircraft will be shipped to Mobile from Hamburg, the site of an existing single-aisle Airbus assembly plant. "We go where the talent is," Airbus Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier said in Mobile ahead of a parade of local politicians welcoming the $600 million investment. He didn't respond directly when asked whether the move would shift employment to the U.S. from Europe. The company's European unions have voiced concern about production moving overseas, according to French media reports. He said labor flexibility afforded by a union-free facility in right-to-work Alabama helped drive the plan. So, too, did the opportunity to change the balance of dollar-generated revenue with costs that are generated mainly in euros. About 40% of the average cost of producing Airbus planes is with U.S. suppliers. A senior executive said labor accounts for only 5% of an aircraft's costs. "We're going to do everything [we can] to create the environment," Sen. Richard Shelby (R., Ala.) said at the Monday event. Battle for Market Share Just what are assembly costs in Germany if it makes economic sense to ship parts from Hamburg to Mobile, Alabama for assembly? Clearly something more is at stake here, and that something is a hope by Airbus to capture more US market share. But will it? Regardless, expect more battles in the WTO and more battles from Washington state, Boeing's headquarters. Washington in not a right-to-work state and is dominated by unions. Airbus to Open Factory on Rival Boeing's U.S. Turf Reuters reports Airbus to Open Factory on Rival Boeing's U.S. Turf Flanked by local Gulf Coast politicians, top executives from European planemaker Airbus unveiled their plans to build their first U.S. factory -- a move they said that would help them take market share from rival Boeing Co. The unit of EADS believes that opening a plant in Mobile, Alabama, which will assemble its narrow-body A320 aircraft, will help it take "more than a few percentage points" of market share from its prime rival in the world's busiest aviation market, according to Airbus sales chief John Leahy. Due to open in 2016 and expected to create some 1,000 jobs, the company said it will be only the second Airbus plant outside Europe that builds its top-selling workhorse jet; the other one is in China. Airbus currently has a 20 percent market share in the narrow body jet segment in the United States, compared with 53 percent of the market worldwide. Airbus' announcement drew a lineup of heavy-hitters from U.S. airlines and suppliers, including American Airlines CEO Tom Horton, JetBlue Airways Corp CEO Dave Barger and Goodrich Corp CEO Marshall Larsen. They arrived to the strains of the rock group Steve Miller Band's 1977 hit "Jet Airliner" -- that homage to Boeing's 707 is something of an anthem for the aviation industry, and Boeing last year hired Miller himself to perform it for workers at its Everett, Washington, factory. Another Warning to Unions This is yet another warning to unions. However, they will not hear the message. After all, this is just about "assembly", at least for today. Tomorrow it will be about actual production. Production is returning to the US, but it sure will not go to California, Illinois, New York and other high-costs states. Musical Tribute Clearly this calls for a musical tribute. Link if video does not play: Jet Airliner Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Faber Says Germany Should Abandon the Euro Posted: 02 Jul 2012 10:21 AM PDT Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu this morning and said that, "If I were running Germany, I would have abandoned the eurozone last week." Faber went on to say, "In the case of Greece, one should have kicked out Greece three years ago. It would have been much cheaper." Link if video does not play: Faber on Europe Faber on the eurozone crisis: "If you put one or 100 sick banks in a union, it does not change the fact that they're sick. In my view the markets are rallying because they were grossly oversold. When markets are grossly oversold, especially markets of Portugal, Spain, Italy, France, then any news that is not disastrous news propels stocks higher. I think that combined with seasonal strength in July, the rally has carried on somewhat. But it is another cosmetic fix, a quick fix that does not solve the long-term fundamental problem of over investment in the euro zone. And what it does, basically, it forces Germans to continue to finance people in Spain and Portugal and Greece that are living beyond their means." "If I were the Germans, if I were running Germany, I would have abandoned the eurozone last week…It is a costly decision, but losses are there and somewhere, somehow, the losses have to be taken. The first loss is the banks. In the case of Greece, one should have kicked out Greece three years ago. It would have been much cheaper." On whether he's picking up European equities: "Yes. In Portugal, Spain, Italy, and France, the markets are either at the lows of March 2009, or lower. Along with bad companies and the banks, there are also reasonably good companies. Stellar companies, but they have been dragged down. I see value in equities, regardless of whether the eurozone stays or is abandoned." "[I'm buying] anything that has a high yield, or what I perceive to have a relatively safe dividend. In other words, I do not expect the dividends to be slashed by 90%...I am not buying banks, but maybe they could rally. I am just not buying them because I think there will be a lot of equity dilution and recapitalization. I'm not that keen on banks." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

US Manufacturing ISM Contracts for First Time in Three Years; New Orders and Prices Plunge; Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction Posted: 02 Jul 2012 09:18 AM PDT US Manufacturing contracted this month as reported in the June 2012 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the first time since July 2009; however, the overall economy grew for the 37th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. "The PMI registered 49.7 percent, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from May's reading of 53.5 percent, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time since July 2009, when the PMI registered 49.2 percent. The New Orders Index dropped 12.3 percentage points in June, registering 47.8 percent and indicating contraction in new orders for the first time since April 2009, when the New Orders Index registered 46.8 percent. The Production Index registered 51 percent, and the Employment Index registered 56.6 percent. The Prices Index for raw materials decreased significantly for the second consecutive month, registering 37 percent, which is 10.5 percentage points lower than the 47.5 percent reported in May. Comments from the panel range from continued optimism to concern that demand may be softening due to uncertainties in the economies in Europe and China." New Orders and Prices Plunge Drop Unexpected A Bloomberg Survey shows the collapse in ISM was unexpected. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey called for a decline to 52. Estimates of 70 economists ranged from 50.5 to 53.5. The gauge averaged 55.2 in 2011 and 57.3 the prior year. While an index below 50 indicates contraction in the industry, a reading greater than 42.6 generally indicates the economy as a whole is expanding, according to ISM. Manufacturing is weaker in the rest of the world. The industry in the euro-area contracted for an 11th straight month in June as Europe's debt crisis sapped demand. Perfect Score All 70 economists polled by Bloomberg came in on the high side. Collapses are never expected. ISM and Recessions click on chart for sharper image The above chart by Doug Short (annotations in red, green, and purple by Mish) shows the importance in not relying on a single indicator as strong evidence of a recession. Since 1959, the ISM dipped substantially below the 50% mark on five occasions when there was no recession. Moreover, in the 70's oil crisis, a recession began with the ISM near 70.  The reverse happened in the wake of the Dot-Com bust as a recession did not start until the ISM was near 40. No US Decoupling I am sticking with what I said yesterday in China Manufacturing Weakens 8th Month; Will the US Economy Continue to Decouple From the Rest of the World? Nearly everyone but the die-hard hyperinflationists thinks the US will decouple from the global economy. This reverse-decoupling idea is primarily based on the absurd belief the Fed will not let the economy or the stock market down (when the Fed is in fact not in control). For further discussion, please see Is There a Limit on Central Bank's Ability to Inflate? The debate on the Fed will remain, but the facts show that I disagreed with decoupling in 2007 and I disagree with reverse-decoupling theories now. Please see 12 Reasons US Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly) for detailed rational and further discussion. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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