miercuri, 19 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

FedEx Package Volume Down 5% in US; FedEx Shipments vs. Real GDP; Preliminary Petroleum Use Figures for September

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 01:06 PM PDT

MarketWatch reports FedEx profit down 1.1% on manufacturing slowdown

  • FedEx says a weak economy drove a shift to non-premium services
  • Volume in its priority international export segment was down 2%
  • Company plans to detail its cost-cutting effort during a meeting next month
  • "Exports and trade have gone down at a faster rate than global trade has" says CEO
  • Company lowered its full-year earnings view, now seeing $6.20 to $6.60 a share, down from an already-disappointing forecast of $6.90 to $7.40 in June
  • Daily package volume fell 5% in the U.S. but rose 1% abroad on improvement in Europe and Asia

FedEx Shipments vs. GDP



The above chart from Bloomberg. I picked up in "tweet" by Kevin Depew.

Petroleum Usage

Tim Wallace pinged me this morning with a note "Aug-Sep early numbers are running 3% negative to last year, September actually running -3.5% now. This is not a good sign."

For detailed charts of monthly petroleum, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel numbers please see Email From Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Supply Team on Possibility of Recession.

Also note dismal retail sales numbers as posted in California August Sales Tax Collection Down 20% From Year Ago, Total Revenues Down 5.5%, Income Tax Up 11.6%; Spending Out Of Control By $3 Billion

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

California August Sales Tax Collection Down 20% From Year Ago, Total Revenues Down 5.5%, Income Tax Up 11.6%; Spending Out Of Control By $3 Billion

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 09:23 AM PDT

A summary of California State Finances for August 2012 looks like this:



Except for corporate income taxes (down a whopping 71.5% vs. projections), the state is doing better in August than budgeted.

However, compared to a year ago, revenues are down, sales taxes are down, and corporate taxes are down, all by significant amounts.

Moreover, the two-month totals for July and August are much worse as the following table shows.

General Fund Receipts July-August 2012



For July and August, sales Tax Collections are $108 million under budget. August sales tax collection is down 20% from a year ago, a huge decline of $633 million.

This clearly shows people in California have cut back spending. I suggest people have cut back in other states as well, regardless of reported increases in retail sales, typically based on the flawed methodology of "same store sales".

Sales tax collections show the real story, and the real story is "recession", the reason for Fed Panic!

Spending Nearly $3 Billion Over Budget!



For the complete report, please see Statement of General Fund Cash Receipts and Disbursements

So California, what are you going to do? Cut spending or hike taxes? I suggest spending is way out of control and retail sales will continue to disappoint.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

QE to Infinity and Beyond; Mish for President?

Posted: 18 Sep 2012 11:58 PM PDT

Once again I had the pleasure of being on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Tuesday. We discussed the election, my comments on  "Mitt Romney's Foot-in-Mouth Disease", a US recession, "QE to Eternity", and other topics.



Mish for President?

Lauren Lyster mentioned my statement that I would not vote for Obama nor Romney. I received several email from readers on that wondering if I was going to opt out of the election.

I will vote. I have voted in every election since 1972. I believe people should vote. I just cannot stand the choices presented. In the previous two elections I wrote-in Ron Paul.

However, Ron Paul is retiring from Congress, having served the nation well. So I am considering instead other possibilities such as Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson or perhaps even myself.

The latter possibility came up when a close friend made an out-of-the-blue yet sincere statement that he was writing-in me. Well, why not? If he can write-in me, why shouldn't I write-in me?

I do not expect to win, and I will not hire an exploratory commission led by Donald Trump to prove it. However, Ron Paul and Gary Johnson will not win either.

Moreover, a handful of write-in votes  for Ron Paul would not merit much media attention, but 50 wrote-in votes in every state for "Mish" might conceivably get a mention.

So if you think as I do, that Obama and Romney are bad choices for America, then please go ahead and write-in "Mish".

Unlike the others, I pledge to spend zero dollars on my campaign, I pledge to bring all the troops home, I will end collective bargaining of public unions by decree (reversing what President Kennedy did by decree), and I will get rid of Ben Bernanke, appointing someone who will work out a plan to get rid of the Fed entirely as well as eliminate fractional reserve lending.

Those are things a president can do, without support of Congress, and I will do them if elected. If you like that platform, please write-in "Mish" in November.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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