Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• French Unemployment Tops 3 Million, First Time Since 1999
• Is China Burning? Shanghai Stock Index Breaks 2000 For First Time Since 2009; Reflections on Sentiment
• Firebombs, Teargas, Riots Near Greek Parliament; 57% Say Greece Should Abandon Pledges Made to Troika

French Unemployment Tops 3 Million, First Time Since 1999 Posted: 26 Sep 2012 10:31 PM PDT Given the disastrous mess in Southern Europe, compounded by the election of socialist Francois Hollande (together with his extremely foolish tax hike policies), France Set to Implode was a very easy call to make. The evidence is strongly pointing in that direction. Please consider French unemployment tops 3 million as economy struggles The number of unemployed people in France has topped 3 million for the first time since 1999, according to latest labour ministry figures. Speaking before the data was officially announced, Labour Minister Michel Sapin said: "It's bad. It's clearly bad." However, the government blamed the previous regime of Nicolas Sarkozy. [Hollande] pledged to revive the eurozone's second largest economy, tackle rising unemployment, and reverse industrial decline. However his approval rating is now at its lowest since he assumed power, pollsters say. Since May, major companies have announced thousands of layoffs, including carmaker Peugeot, drugmaker Sanofi, airline Air France-KLM, and retailer Carrefour. Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Economic Observatory, told the Reuters news agency: "There are almost one million more unemployed people compared with early 2008 and we can't yet say that we have reached the peak." The French economy has posted three consecutive quarters of zero growth, and forward-looking data suggests it may continue to flatline. The 2013 budget, due to go before the cabinet on Friday, is expected to contain more than 30bn euros in budget savings, and fresh tax rises. The government has forecast 0.3% growth for the year, and has so far kept its 2013 target at 1.2%, which many economists now consider unrealistic. France's central bank this month predicted that the economy would contract by 0.1% in the third quarter after flatlining for the first half of the year. Flatline? Please Be Serious The idea that France is going to flatline is ridiculous. Growth estimates for next year are even more ridiculous. Eurozone Unemployment Rates With the rest of Europe slowing dramatically, do not expect German unemployment to buck the trend forever. Italy is in a steep downturn now, and France is going to follow suit. Meanwhile, France, Spain, Greece, and Italy are busy hiking taxes which is economic insanity in a recession. They ought to be reforming work rules, but on that score there is little progress, with negative progress in France. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Is China Burning? Shanghai Stock Index Breaks 2000 For First Time Since 2009; Reflections on Sentiment Posted: 26 Sep 2012 12:08 PM PDT Today the Shanghai stock index, $SSEC, dipped below the 2000 level for the first time since 2009. Stockcharts does not have intraday charts of ADRs so here are a couple of charts from yesterday to consider. $SSEC Daily Chart The following monthly chart puts things in better perspective. $SSEC Monthly Chart Shanghai Rout is On Misguided China bulls shorting the dollar and buying Chinese stocks have gotten their heads handed to them on a platter. Those aware of the fraud, corruption, and simple sustainability of economic growth in China either stayed away completely or were short China like Jim Chanos. Bloomberg reports Shanghai Rout Sinks ADRs Chinese stocks in New York slid to a two-week low as the Shanghai Composite Index's slump below a key level for the first time in three years stoked concern government efforts to avert a slowdown won't be sufficient. The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index of the most-traded Chinese stocks in the U.S. dropped for a third day, losing 0.7 percent to 90.18 by 12:44 p.m. in New York. The decline followed the Shanghai Composite Index's descent below 2,000 for the first time since 2009. Mobile-chip designer Spreadtrum Communications Inc. (SPRD) sank after its stock rating was cut. Is China Burning? Forbes columnist Gordon Chang asks the question, Is China Burning? Chinese streets were quiet today after anti-Japan protests, many of them violent, rocked more than a 100 cities last week.  Large demonstrations continued through Tuesday, the 81st anniversary of Japan's invasion of Manchuria. The disturbances, triggered by a territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, are commonly described as the worst anti-Japan riots to hit the country since at least 2005, and they may have even been more destructive than that. In any event, the damage to Japan's business interests in China was substantial.  More than a dozen Japanese companies halted operations in the country as fire bombings, sabotage, and looting took their toll.  Manufacturers Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Yamaha, Komatsu, Hitachi, and Canon shuttered plants.  Panasonic locked the doors of a factory after employees broke windows, ruined equipment, and set fires.  Retailers Aeon, Fast Retailing, Ryohin Keikaku, and Seven & I closed stores. Japanese tourists are canceling trips to China, and hard-hit Panasonic is, not surprisingly, reducing business trips from Japan to the country.  As a result, Japan Airlines reduced flights to and from Chinese destinations.  It halved Tokyo-Beijing and Osaka-Shanghai flights, for example.  All Nippon Airways reported an increase in cancellations on its flights from China to Japan.  And it is not only Japanese carriers that have been hurt.  China Eastern, China's second-biggest airline, is delaying the October 18 start of its Shanghai-Sendai route due to insufficient bookings. the Chinese economy is in obvious distress, with fewer analysts buying Beijing's claims that the country is growing in the high single digits.  Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research, for example, thinks China's growth rate is only 1.6%, and it could even be lower than that.  In this environment, even minor disruptions could have a "tipping point" effect. Moreover, the prospects for Japanese companies will be even worse than it is for others.  Who in China is going to buy a Toyota when last Saturday, in an incident now well-known throughout the country, a 51-year-old Chinese man in Xian was savagely beaten—he is now paralyzed and mostly unable to speak—because he was driving a white Corolla?  And don't think this affects only Japanese companies.  China's new ultra-nationalism, on display this past week, can also affect brands from other countries. And we should not think the Chinese are limiting their anger to the Japanese.  Last week's events have been compared, in their intensity and their aims, to the anti-foreigner Boxer Rebellion, which began just at the end of the 19th century. That, unfortunately, is a historical parallel we should remember.  Rioters on Tuesday attacked and damaged the car of American ambassador Gary Locke while he was in it. China at the moment is unstable, and that puts foreign businesses there—not to mention the Chinese economy—at risk. Reflections on Sentiment A few years ago nearly everyone was a China bull. China, China, China was all I heard at gold and natural resources conferences. My calls pointing out the unsustainability of Chinese growth fell mostly on deaf ears. Remember how in the 1980s everyone thought Japan would soon rule the world. That's what many thought about China, and still do. I did not buy into it, nor did Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets. Here are a few posts to consider. The Dating Game: Michael Pettis Challenges The Economist to a Bet on China   12 Predictions by Michael Pettis on China; Non-Food Commodity Prices Will Collapse Over Next Three to Four Years; Nails in the Hard Landing Coffin?   By 2015 Hard Commodity Prices Will Collapse; Australia's Mining Boom Dies (and the Official Denials Start) The idea that China was going to rule the world by the end of the decade was complete silliness. Exponential math, as well as energy constraints said it would not happen. Malinvestments and fraud were simply icing on the absurdly-bullish cake. That said, as compared to a few years ago, or even earlier this year, sentiment on China has soured remarkably. The fundamentals did not change, just the sentiment. Indeed, sentiment is now so sour on China that a nice rally may happen at any time. This is not a recommendation that people buy into China, rather it's a suggestion that sentiment is now moving towards extreme pessimism. Reversals from such extremes can lead to powerful rallies. However, timing the reversal is problematic as the four percent rally quickly taken back shows. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Firebombs, Teargas, Riots Near Greek Parliament; 57% Say Greece Should Abandon Pledges Made to Troika Posted: 26 Sep 2012 08:16 AM PDT Once again things are out of control in Greece. A general strike is underway, and schools, hospitals, and transit are affected. Firebombs and teargas have hit Athens as Greek citizens protest the latest round of austerity measures. Please consider Greek Strike Sees Violence as Police Use Tear Gas by Parliament Police fired tear gas near the Greek Parliament after protesters threw fire-bombs as thousands of people joined a strike opposing wage cuts and austerity that Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said are vital to keep the euro. Demonstrators streamed into the central Syntagma Square in Athens, opposite the Parliament House, shouting slogans such as "struggle, clash, overturn: history gets written by those who disobey." Police spokesman Takis Papapetropoulos estimated the crowd at 35,000 people. Schools, hospitals, ferries and government services shut down in the first walkout since February. Shops will close from 3 p.m. today to let staff take part in demonstrations. Public transport is operating from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. to allow protesters to attend rallies in Athens city center. A three-hour walkout by air traffic controllers will disrupt flights around the country. Athens, the capital, has been wracked with demonstrations by groups ranging from police officers to parents of three or more children in the past week as Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras remained locked in talks with officials from the European Union, the IMF and the European Central Bank. Hooded youths throwing fire-bombs at police were met with tear gas today, forcing some of the marchers to scatter. Teams of riot police guarded the Finance Ministry and surrounding streets. The IMF has indicated that any additional financing for Greece will have to come from Europe, where officials have told Samaras no discussion can be held on debt relief or on extending the time to implement measures until he honors pledges made for the country's second rescue package. Polls show continued dissatisfaction with economic policies. More than 57 percent said the country shouldn't keep to pledges made in exchange for the bailout as the policies have failed, compared with 40 percent who said it should stick to its commitments, according to a Metron Analysis poll for Ependytis newspaper. Sentiment Has Turned Sentiment in Greece has turned, and likely turned for good. 57% of Greeks have had enough of austerity to the point they would rather default. Turn back the hands of time a bit and think how this might have played out if Greece simply left the euro and defaulted three years ago as it should have. Tourism would likely have increased and if  Greece had implemented true structural reforms rather than tax hikes, its economy would be stable or recovering now. Instead, the country is in ruins, tourism is down, and in an on-again-off-again fashion, absolute chaos breaks out. Another round of austerity and tax hikes can only make things worse at this point, and the people know it. This will pressure political parties to not go along with Samaras. If another round of elections were held today, there is no way Samaras would win. Instead, the radical left, and radical right (both of which want to exit the euro), would be fighting over the pieces. The nannycrats in Brussels and Chancellor Merkel are to blame for this sad state of affairs. Finally, please note that the big fear of the nannycrats and Merkel is not that Greece leaves the euro per se, but rather Greece leaves the euro and the Greek economy starts to recover. Well, here's the deal and it is something I said years ago: the sooner Greece abandons the euro, tells the Troika to go to hell, and defaults, the better off it will be. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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