Central Perk: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

joi, 1 noiembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Reflections on "Moral Choice" and Definition of "Temporary"
"Deposit Wars" an Act of Desperation by Spanish Banks; Bankia Déjà Vu
What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Reflections on "Moral Choice" and Definition of "Temporary"

Posted: 01 Nov 2012 03:39 PM PDT

California voters have some choices to make in the upcoming election. For example, Governor Brown says Californians Face 'Moral Choice' in Tax Vote

California Governor Jerry Brown said voters face a "moral choice" on his ballot measure to raise taxes to avoid deep cuts to schools.

"What we're facing here is a very stark moral choice," Brown, a 74-year-old Democrat, said today at a conference of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, or NAACP, in San Mateo, near San Francisco. "Are we going to invest in our kids, in our schools, in our colleges, in our universities, or not?"

Brown's measure, Proposition 30 on the Nov. 6 ballot, would temporarily boost the state sales tax to 7.5 percent from 7.25 percent and raise the levy on income starting at $250,000. A rejection by voters would trigger $5.5 billion in education cuts.

His plan is being challenged by a competing proposal offered by Los Angeles lawyer Molly Munger, whose father Charles Munger is vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) Her initiative, Proposition 38, would increase tax rates for 12 years on income of more than $7,316 by 0.4 percentage point for the lowest earners to 2.2 percentage points for those making more than $2.5 million a year.

Reflections on "Moral Choice"

The moral choice was not to put ludicrous proposals in front of voters in the first place. Was there nothing else but schools for Brown to cut?

Even if there was nothing else but schools to cut, pray tell, why can't teachers make a "moral choice" of reduced benefits "for the sake of the kids"?

Why is it overburdened taxpayers have to pony up so teachers and other public unions get benefits most can only dream about?

The real "moral choice" is to tell Brown where to shove it and the same thing can be said to Molly Munger who wants to "temporarily" hike taxes.

Definition of "Temporary"

Molly's definition of "temporary" is a "mere" 12 years. You are out of your mind if you think that will be the end of it. As soon as taxes are hiked, public unions will be demanding massive pay hikes, "for the kids" of course.

My friend Hugo Salinas Price discusses the meaning of "temporary" in his excellent article Reflections on the effects of War as compared to the effects of Fiat Money.

At Bretton Woods in 1944 Henry Morgenthau and Harry Dexter White outmaneuvered John Maynard Keynes, the British Delegate to the Monetary Conference, and the Conference ended by accepting the American "diktat" for the post-war monetary structure of the world: the dollar was to be as good as gold for purposes of international payments, and the US promised to redeem for gold dollars held by other national central banks at the rate of one ounce of gold for each $35 dollars tendered for redemption. ...

Came the fateful day, August 15, 1971, and the US had to default on its promise to redeem dollars for gold – it was going to be only a "temporary" suspension, Nixon assured the American people.

Alas, in politics nothing is more permanent than a temporary measure. The dollar became the full-fledged fiat currency of the world.

Cut the Money to Special Interests

Ed Ring, Director of Finance, Yes on Proposition 32 writes ...

Hello Mish

Special interests who oppose the YES on the Prop. 32 political spending reform initiative have raised nearly $70 million.

Virtually all of this money has come from public sector unions, who use forced dues and fees, taken from government worker paychecks, to fund the annihilation of any political rival who challenges them. How's that for your tax dollars at work?

And apart from government union organizations, how many actual individual donors from these alleged "middle class working families" are reported on the California Secretary of State's website as having voluntarily contributed to this massive warchest? Only 6 people. Seven, if you include the hedge fund billionaire who donated $500,000.

Please join millions of Californians next week to vote YES on Prop. 32, a campaign finance reform public sector unions have raised a massive war-chest to defeat.

Proposition 32 prohibits union political contributions from being automatically deducted from employee paychecks. This means that if public sector unions want their members to contribute a portion of their paycheck to a political campaign, first they have to ask permission. Is this so unreasonable?

Without passage of Prop. 32, California will never fix the public schools, reform the prison system, hold fair elections, balance government budgets, streamline government agencies, or reduce the crippling tithe demanded by the pension bankers. A YES vote on Prop. 32 is a vote for freedom.

The dismal results of unionizing our state and local governments should be clear to anyone, Republican or Democrat: Failing schools, bankrupt cities, and no money left for anything apart from more pay and more benefits for unionized public employees. And unlike private sector unions who must be reasonable or they bankrupt the company, public sector unions simply elect politicians who vote to raise taxes. No wonder California has the highest taxes in the nation.

Public sector unions have been the most powerful political players in California for decades. Prop. 32 doesn't break these unions, it merely requires them to ask their members' permission before using their dues to make political contributions. It is a necessary step towards restoring balance to California politics.

Vote YES on November 6th for real campaign finance reform: Prop. 32, the Stop Special Interest Money Act, is our best chance to take California back. Here's how it will change the rules in Sacramento:

1) Prohibits direct corporate and union contributions to state and local candidates,

2) Prohibits contributions by government contractors to the politicians who control contracts awarded to them,

3) Prohibits automatic deductions by corporations, unions, and government of employees' wages to be used for politics.

Let's make our voice heard again. Vote YES on Prop 32 to Stop Special Interest Money.

Please help us - donate now.

Please make a donation, I just did, and I do not even live in California.
And when time comes to vote ...

Vote Yes on 32
Note No on 30
Vote No on 38

Remember, when it comes to politics and especially tax hikes in California, "nothing is more permanent than a temporary measure".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Deposit Wars" an Act of Desperation by Spanish Banks; Bankia Déjà Vu

Posted: 01 Nov 2012 10:44 AM PDT

Acts of Desperation

Looking for the next major thing in Spain to blow sky high? I have a strong candidate in mind.

Bank deposits are down 154 billion euros this year and banks have resorted to paying unsustainable interest rates as high as 8% to attract money.

Via Google translate from El Economista, please consider war rages over deposits: Spanish banks are "desperate"

A new war between Spanish banks deposits threatens to destroy their already depleted profit margins by offering higher interest to depositors to attract new customers in a desperate battle for scarce capital.

Entities found new ways to avoid legal restrictions and encourage customers to leave deposits to buy notes, products which are not protected by the Deposit Guarantee Fund.

Spain is in the spotlight of the debt crisis in the euro zone and many of its banks are unable to raise money in financial markets, forcing them to attract customers with deposits with annual rates above 4%, and that in some extreme cases reach 8% - a figure well above the average rates in the euro zone, amounting to 2.7% within two years.

"Self-destructive strategy'

"It's a self-defeating strategy," said a banking analyst in Madrid. "The margins are falling. When banks have to resort to such practices is because they are desperate," he added.

Most Spanish banks offer more than 3% for new customers who deposit at least $ 3,000 for a year or more, although some entities like People or Ibercaja offer more than 4%. While banks need capital, rates are likely to continue rising.

"There will probably be an intensification of the war in deposits this quarter to post some good numbers at the end of the year", said the chief executive of Bankinter, Maria Dolores Dancausa told analysts on a conference.

Depositors Beware!

"Superdepósitos" penalties were lifted in August and bank deposits have somewhat stabilized.

However, banks are paying far more for deposits than they can get for mortgages and other loans. Moreover the mortgage business and indeed the entire lending business in Spain is a disaster.

This setup cannot possibly end well for those chasing high rates, so it won't.

Bankia Revisited

Many Bankia investors thought they were making government guaranteed deposits, but in reality they were buying debt instruments later wiped out in bankruptcy. The same thing appears to be happening again.

Consider the May 29, 2012 Bloomberg article Bankia Depositors Buying Bonds Leave Spain on Bailout Hook

Bankia is among Spanish lenders that sold 22.4 billion euros ($28.2 billion) of preferred stock to individual investors through retail branches, according to data compiled by CNMV, the financial markets supervisor. In a so-called bail in, these investors would be wiped out before holders of more senior bonds, which tend to be banks and institutions.

Fernando Herrero, the secretary general of ADICAE, a Madrid-based association of clients of financial institutions, estimated that about 1 million Spanish households bought banks' preferred shares, some of which have been converted to common equity or subordinated convertible bonds.

"The instruments were marketed as very liquid and as safe as a deposit," said Herrero, who described issuing the risky securities to individual investors as an "original sin."

Next consider my June 28, 2012 post Bankia Valued at EUR -13.635 Billion; Spain Becomes Sole Owner, Shareholders Totally Wiped Out; Entire Bankia Board Resigns.

Déjà Vu All Over Again

There is no way Spanish banks can pay 3% interest, let alone 8% interest on deposits. Anyone taking such offers is bound to get hammered down the road in debt-to-equity conversions.

Expect "Déjà Vu All Over Again" because more Bankia-type blowups are surely on the way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Posted: 01 Nov 2012 03:03 AM PDT

Here is the question of the day: What's Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

I ask the question after reading three incorrect answers in the article Inequality and the Second Gilded Age on the Real-World Economics Review Blog.

Misguided Notions on Commodity Values

Writer David Ruccio kicks things off by stating "The only way you can answer that question is based on a theory of value — a theory of how commodity values are determined and how the resulting flows of value are distributed to different participants in the economy."

Ruccio gets off on the wrong foot because there is no such a thing as "commodity value" that can be measured.

Here are a few snips straight from chapter 2 "On the Measurement of Value" from The Theory of Money and Credit by Ludwig von Mises.

Although it is usual to speak of money as a measure of value and prices, the notion is entirely fallacious. ... Acts of valuation are not susceptible of any kind of measurement. ... But subjective valuation, which is the pivot of all economic activity, only arranges commodities in order of their significance; it does not measure this significance.

Misguided Notions on Skill-Based Technology

Ruccio goes on to state "Brad DeLong, who admits that he was wrong to presume that the late-20th century America would be 'a much more equal place than early 20th century America,' focuses on exogenous factors such as winner-take-all markets in an increasingly globalized world and skill-based technical change to explain growing inequalities in the Second Gilded Age."

Clearly there is a "winner-take-all" concept in the markets, but it should be equally clear that winner-take-all is not primarily based on technical skills.

Did Mitt Romney really have any "technical skills" or did he learn how to use leverage to his advantage? Most top executives of financial companies have no "technical skills" to speak of although many do have "analytical skills".

Many one-percenters were nothing more than huge gamblers. Get enough people gambling, and the law of averages says some will strike it big. Some were just plain lucky.

Misguided Notions on Changing Attitudes Towards Unions

The worst explanation comes from Mark Thoma who emphasizes "the changing political tide over the last few decades, and how that has altered public policy towards institutions such as unions that were able to help workers get a fair share of the output they produce."

Good grief. If you are looking for someone who is 180 degrees wrong and is not even in the correct ballpark, then look no further than Thoma.

The fact of the matter is unions, especially public unions have bankrupted cities states and municipalities by driving up costs far more than politicians were willing to hike taxes to pay for them.

Many police and firefighters make more in retirement than they did working. Moreover, a majority of them get to retire at age 50 or so, provided they put in 20 years.

Those benefits may not be in the top 1% but they are probably in the top 5%. Who has to pay for that? The bottom 95%, that's who.

Framework For Discussion

Let's step away from the misguided notion of "value" and reflect on the last two major boom-bust cycles.

In 2000, there was an internet boom of epic proportion followed by an equally large bust. Who benefited from that? Clearly it was not the 99%.

From 2002 through 2006 there was a housing boom, the biggest the world had ever seen. Who benefited from that? Clearly it was not the 99%.

By the time those on the bottom end of the totem pole took part in the credit expansion boom, they were destroyed by it.

Many one-percenters (with zero technical skills) amassed fortunes during the housing boom. Some lost it all back. Others (with zero technical skills) made fortunes betting against the bubble. Still others went broke betting against the boom too early.

Some gamblers won and some lost. Technology had nothing to do with any of it.

Take a look at Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo R. Mozilo. He cashed out $1 billion in stock options in a few short years during the housing boom. Yet the company itself became nearly worthless!

If one really wants to understand "gross inequalities in income distribution" one needs to understand precisely how and why that happened.

Here's a hint. Lack of unions had nothing to do with it. Fiat money does. So does fractional reserve lending.

Reflections on the Effects of Fiat Money

My good friend, Hugo Salinas Price touches upon the root cause of income distribution inequity in his latest article Reflections on the effects of War as compared to the effects of Fiat Money.

I encourage you to read the entire article because he provides excellent historical perspective, but here is one critical snip.

The apparent prosperity of the developed nations of the world today has been sustained by credit expansion, not by savings. The West has been living like an heir to a great fortune, wasting away its inheritance. It is now bankrupt. The continuance of a whole way of life is now in danger of collapse, because it is becoming impossible to expand credit any further. The Chinese are in no better situation: their supposed prosperity will crumble when the policy of expanding credit in the West has to come to a halt and the markets which China has supplied fade away.

Fiat money is the child of the arrogance of human intellect, which has sought to invalidate the laws of human nature which have regarded the precious metals as money for thousands of years, and sought to substitute an intellectual construct for the real thing. Now we are going to pay for that arrogance.

What now? Nobody knows. Unquestionably, we are headed straight into fearful problems never seen before. At least, owning physical gold and silver may be help some of us survive.

Inflation Targeting Non-Solution

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would have you believe deflation is a bad thing. Common sense says otherwise. So clearly Bernanke is devoid of common sense.

Ask anyone on the street if they want lower food prices, lower energy prices, lower rentals, lower health-care costs, or lower education costs.

100% of the 1% would want exactly that!

Yet Bernanke wants prices to go up by 2% a year. Here is a chart and commentary from my post World Economic Forum Endorses Fraud

Inflation Targeting at 2% a Year

click on chart for sharper image.

Many bad things can happen with Bernanke's 2% inflation target.

Wages do not keep up.

Asset bubbles build

Rising asset prices make it appear debt is sustainable

Wage growth is disproportionate to debt

Wealth concentration

By the time bubbles are spotted it is already too late

Recessions happen

Take a good look at that first bullet point.

Did wages rise to keep up with inflation? They did for a while. Then what? Then manufacturers decided to move jobs to China.

Then we had boom bust cycles of immense proportion as Bernanke saved the banks and the bondholders (the wealthy) at the expense of the 99%.

The 1% knew all along Bernanke would do that because Bernanke carried out the same fatally-flawed moral-hazard "too big to fail" policies as Greenspan.

Bernanke also slashed rates to 0% and paid banks on "excess reserves". This is free money for the wealthy but yields 0% interest for those on fixed income.

Now Bernanke is so trapped in his academic ivory tower that he cannot figure out that he personally is part of the problem.

Steve Keen Chimes In

Australian economist Steve Keen chimed in on my inflation targeting post with Mish Mashes the WEF

The American mathematician Andrew Bartlett claims that "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function", to which I'd add that that shortcoming almost defines neoclassical economics. 2 percent per annum doesn't sound like a lot, but over 36 years that means the ratio doubles, over 72 it quadruples, over 144 it becomes 8 times what it was, and so on.

Mish provides some nice graphs to illustrate this process.

For the record, the actual rate of growth of the private US debt to GDP ratio was roughly 2.9% p.a. from 1945 till 2008. That means that the ratio doubled every 25 years, from 45% in 1945 to 90% in 1970, 180% in 1995, and if it had kept going, it would have been 360% in 2020.

Instead it fell over in 2008, and is now going backward at a rate of knots. Here's an extrapolation of the trend that the WEF says is "nothing unsustainable about", from the time period they should have started their analysis—not 2000 but 1945—and focusing on the key problem—private debt:

"Nothing unsustainable about" it, eh? This naivety by neoclassical economists about growth and exponential processes in general is positively dangerous for the human race.

I'll let Mish take over from here.

Three Credit Questions, Three Answers

Who has first access to credit? Answer: The banks, the political class, and the already wealthy.
Who benefits the most from inflated asset prices? Answer: The banks, the political class, and the already wealthy.
Who gets hammered in real terms by rising inflation? Answer: The bottom 10%, then the next 20%, then the lower middle class, then the upper middle class.

The Biggest Academic-Sponsored Fraud in History

Inquiring minds may be wondering "Is deflation really a problem?"

The fact of the matter the natural state of affairs is deflation. Productivity improvements over time lead to lower prices. Attempts to prop up prices only benefits those in unions, those holding assets, and government bureaucrats who want to raise taxes.

Deflation is only perceived to be a problem because of the reckless expansion of credit that preceded it.

Look at it this way: If deflation caused a downward spiral in which everyone held off purchases expecting lower prices tomorrow, not a single computer would have been sold since 1990!

Yet, the price of computers, memory cards, wide-screen TVs, and in fact everything technological has been dropping like a rock for ages. Every day such items are bought. That would not be happening if Fed and academic theories regarding the downward spiral of deflation were remotely true.

Moreover, and as noted above, the unseen effect of the Fed's attempt to prop up wages and prices directly led to a loss of jobs to China.

The "deflation is bad" theory is the biggest academic-sponsored fraud in history.

Fractional Reserve Lending as the Great Enabler

Here is a crucial fifth question: What is the enabler of rapidly rising credit?

The answer is fractional reserve lending.

However, fractional reserve lending and expansion of base money supply by the Fed does not guarantee expansion of credit (a point Keen would agree with).

Nonetheless, fractional reserve lending does serve as the enabler to massive credit expansion (a point Keen may dispute).

Many Austrian economists make a huge mistake by assuming that money supply will quickly come pouring back into the system expanding 10-times or more, causing massive price inflation.

The reality is banks lend if and only if both of the following are true.

They are not capital impaired
They have credit-worthy borrowers willing to borrow.

For a discussion please see Can Bernanke Force Banks to Lend by Halting Interest on Excess Reserves?

Before you object to point number 2, please read Reader Questions on "Credit-Worthiness": Did Banks Give Mortgages to Non-Creditworthy Borrowers?

Role of Government

We are still not quite there. Let's not ignore the role of government in this mess.

Numerous "affordable housing" programs helped send housing prices to the moon.
President Kennedy authorized collective bargaining of public unions, driving up costs to cities, states, and taxpayers. Unions and politicians benefited. Everyone else lost purchasing power due to rising taxes.
Student loan programs made debt slaves out of kids for life.

In short, government interference into the free markets exacerbated the problem of Fed bubble-blowing policies.

We can now finally answer the question.

What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Fractional Reserve Lending
Inflation targeting by the Fed
Moral hazard policies of the Fed that encourage winner-take-all speculation
Government interference into free markets
Public unions

The result of all five practices is the hollowing out of the middle class from the bottom up.

The solution is sound money, elimination of the Fed, the end of public unions, and minimal government interference in the free markets, not income rules, not misguided regulation of banks, and not more debates about how to measure something that cannot be measured.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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