Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Mercy! Isn’t a Late Day Selloff Illegal?
• European PMI Retail Sales Collapse: Near-Record Drop in Italy Retail Sales; French Retail Sales Drop 9th Consecutive Month; Germany Retail Sales Back in Contraction
• Four Strikes Is An Out; Obama Proposes Last Minute "Mini Deal" Essentially Scrapping All Cutbacks, While Adding Milk Lobby Bonus
• France Economic Implosion Underway; French Retail Sales Contract 9th Consecutive Month as Cost Inflation Surges
• Japan Manufacturing PMI Downturn Accelerates; Output and New Orders Suffer Sharpest Contractions for 20 Months; Cheaper Yen Cannot Save Japan

Mercy! Isn’t a Late Day Selloff Illegal? Posted: 28 Dec 2012 01:48 PM PST I hope you are as outraged as I am by this late-day stock market action. S&P 500 Futures 10-Minute Chart Since when is a late day selloff legal? And for an entire hour with six consecutive red candles! And in the month of December too! What happened to my Santa Rally? I demand a Congressional inquiry. Goodness! I was sure such action was illegal. Clearly, it should be illegal, and I thought it was already. It's no wonder Fiscal Cliff legislation failed. Republicans and Democrats alike forgot to pass circuit-breaker provisions to halt (or better yet prevent) market declines late in the day, as well as this late in the year. Please call your Senators and Representatives today, demanding their immediate attention on this matter. After all, everyone knows that jobs and fiscal prudence are irrelevant. It's the stock market that's vital to the economy. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

European PMI Retail Sales Collapse: Near-Record Drop in Italy Retail Sales; French Retail Sales Drop 9th Consecutive Month; Germany Retail Sales Back in Contraction Posted: 28 Dec 2012 12:58 PM PST Inquiring minds are noting the expected (at least in this corner) collapse in European retail sales as measured by PMI indices in Italy, France, and Germany, the three largest Eurozone economies. Earlier today I took a look at France. For details, please see France Economic Implosion Underway; French Retail Sales Contract 9th Consecutive Month as Cost Inflation Surges. This article will look at Germany and Italy, the first and third biggest eurozone economies. Italy The Markit Italy Retail PMI® shows Steep downturn in high street spending continues in December. Key points: Near survey-record year-on-year fall in retail sales Rate of job losses fastest since July Business sentiment weakens to series low Summary: Italy's retail sector remained in a steep downturn in December, with sales dropping sharply according to both monthly and yearly measures. Gross margins decreased amid a further rise in average wholesale prices, while firms cut employment and purchasing activity in line with lower sales. The month also saw business sentiment hit a record low. December data pointed to another sharp month-on-month drop in Italian retail sales. This was signalled by Italian Retail PMI® registering 36.8, up from November's seven-month low of 35.5 but slightly below its average over the year as a whole of 37.2. The latest decrease in high street spending was the twenty-second in consecutive months, and attributed by panellists to greater tax burdens, weak consumer sentiment and media scaremongering. When measured on a year-on-year basis, the decline in retail sales was one of the most marked since data collection began in January 2004. In fact, only in December 2008 and May 2012 have faster annual rates of decline been recorded. Comment: Phil Smith, economist at Markit and author of the Italian Retail PMI®, said: "2012 surpassed 2008 as the worst year in the survey's history, with the PMI showing sharp monthly contractions in high street spending throughout and never once climbing above its pre-2012 historic average. The series measuring year-on-year changes in sales hit a record low back in May and came close to that mark in the latest survey period as consumer spending power was weakened further amid added tax pressure. Firms persistent attempts to boost sales through discounts have proved largely fruitless over the past 12 months, such has been the extent of the downturn in demand among Italy's households." Germany The Markit Germany Retail PMI® shows Retail PMI hits lowest level for eight months. Key points: Moderate reduction in sales since the previous month Actual sales fall short initial expectations for December Job creation was maintained Comments: The seasonally adjusted Germany Retail PMI dropped to 47.6 during December, from 50.2 in November, signalling a moderate month-on-month contraction in like-for-like sales. December's index reading was below the long-run series average (49.8) and pointed to the sharpest pace of contraction for eight months. Reports from retailers in Germany suggested that strong competition, unfavourable weather conditions and unexpectedly low consumer footfall had all contributed to lower sales. December sales disappoint compared to targets German retailers signalled that actual sales at their stores fell short of prior expectations in December, continuing the trend of weaker than expected sales for the ninth month running. Moreover, the degree to which sales failed to reach initial targets was the most marked for any December since that recorded in 2009. Meanwhile, expectations for sales in the month ahead were the weakest since December 2009, with some retailers suggesting that earlier than planned promotional discounting will have a negative influence on like-for-like sales in January. Margins squeezed again Operating margins in the German retail sector declined again in December, thereby extending the current period of contraction to 25 months. Anecdotal evidence suggested that lower margins reflected strong competition and a sharp rise in average cost burdens during the month. Italy Implosion Continues Note that high street spending is in its twenty-second consecutive month of contraction. Also note (and laugh at) the blame placed on "media scaremongering". Germany Back in Contraction German retail spending is back in contraction and this time I expect it to stay there, while laughing at the blame placed on "unfavourable weather conditions and unexpectedly low consumer footfall". Signs point to a full-blown eurozone recession that is worsening nearly every month. Germany cannot possibly be immune from this and indeed I blasted the IMF for proposing just that on January 9, 2012 in Dimwit Comment of the Day: Christine Lagarde, IMF Director says "Europe May Avoid a Recession This Year" "The idea Germany may avoid a recession is silly enough. The idea Europe may avoid a recession is downright idiotic." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Four Strikes Is An Out; Obama Proposes Last Minute "Mini Deal" Essentially Scrapping All Cutbacks, While Adding Milk Lobby Bonus Posted: 28 Dec 2012 11:25 AM PST The one thing I am always afraid of in budget negotiations is that virtually nothing is done, or worse yet, something counterproductive is done. Obama's latest Fiscal Cliff "Mini-Deal" Proposal is exactly the kind of counterproductive nonsense I am talking about. Assuming the above Atlantic Wire article is correct ... The deal would delay or replace the vast majority of spending cuts called for in the automatic sequester. The deal would extend unemployment benefits The deal would stop planned cuts to Medicare reimbursements Out of the blue, and probably an attempt to buy farm-state votes, the deal purportedly would include a "milk fix" that allegedly would avoid a dairy market catastrophe created by the failure to renew the farm bill Four Strikes Is An Out I am against all four ideas and it's hard to say which one is worse. Certainly we need to scrap all farm subsidies, not put back those that have been scrapped. Hopefully the House punts this ball a mile high, or better yet, let's hope this does not clear the Senate in the first place. Purportedly the deal would only be for 60-90 days which would in all likelihood do nothing but allow further watering down of the proposal in yet another can-kicking exercise at that time. Since the market is not blasting higher on this preposterous idea, it's safe to assume this deal is Dead-on-Arrival in the House, if it were to get there. As I have said on numerous occasions, the best offer on the table is to let the alleged "fiscal cliff" happen. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

France Economic Implosion Underway; French Retail Sales Contract 9th Consecutive Month as Cost Inflation Surges Posted: 28 Dec 2012 09:00 AM PST Inquiring minds are noting the expected (at least in this corner) collapse in European retail sales as measured by PMI indices. The spotlight for this post is France, the second largest Eurozone economy following Germany. The Markit France Retail PMI® shows French retail sales fall for ninth consecutive month. Key points: Sales fall at sharper pace on both monthly and annual measures Purchasing costs rise at strongest rate in ten months Stocks of goods for resale decline at faster pace Summary: French retailers reported another month-on-month decline in sales during December – the ninth in succession which is a survey record. Sales were also down on an annual basis, and fell well short of retailers' plans. Gross margins remained under considerable pressure, partly reflecting a strong and accelerated rise in purchasing costs. The headline Retail PMI® slipped to 46.8 in December, from 48.8 in November. The latest reading was indicative of a solid rate of contraction. Anecdotal evidence suggested that a difficult economic climate and low customer footfall had contributed to the drop in sales. Actual sales at French retailers once again disappointed relative to previously set plans in December. The degree of undershoot was the greatest since August. Survey respondents are also pessimistic regarding the one-month outlook for sales. Factors expected by retailers to boost sales over the coming three months include cold weather, new product launches and promotions. Those factors expected to depress sales include a weak economy, depressed consumer confidence and increased taxes. Latest data indicated that French retailers' gross margins remained under strong pressure in December. Margins have declined in every month since February 2008. Wholesale prices faced by French retailers continued to increase in December. The rate of inflation accelerated to the sharpest since February. Panellists reported that suppliers had generally raised prices in order to pass on higher raw material costs. France Economic Implosion Underway Retail sales in France fell for the 9th consecutive month, a new record. Deterioration is marked as well as expected. Because of the sharp rise in inflation, things are even worse than they look at first glance of the PMI numbers. The horrendous policies from president Francois Hollande and his socialist cronies including ridiculous tax hikes and inane rules on firing workers are going to cause massive heartburn (to put things mildly). I have to laugh at the comment by Markit that "low customer footfall had contributed to the drop in sales". Nearly as amusing, note that retailers expect "increased sales because of cold weather." For further reading, please consider economically insane proposal by French president Francois Hollande "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It" Given that any clear-thinking person should quickly realize that if companies cannot fire workers they will be extremely reluctant to hire them in the first place , it should be no surprise to discover French Unemployment Highest in 14 Years (And It's Going to Get Much Worse). In France, Government spending amounts to 55% of total domestic output. For discussion, please see Hollande's Honeymoon is Over; 54% of Voters Unhappy; Unions Promise "War" in September. Looking ahead to 2013, I Expect things in France to get worse at an accelerated pace. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Japan Manufacturing PMI Downturn Accelerates; Output and New Orders Suffer Sharpest Contractions for 20 Months; Cheaper Yen Cannot Save Japan Posted: 28 Dec 2012 04:03 AM PST The Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI™ shows Downturn of manufacturing sector accelerated during December. Key points: Output and new orders register sharpest contractions for 20 months Employment, purchasing and stocks all continue to be cut Output charges lowered further as input prices remain unchanged Summary: Latest data from Markit/JMMA indicated that the performance of the Japanese manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate in December. Output, new orders and employment all fell compared to one month ago while margins remained under pressure as output charges declined amid ongoing price competition. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the headline Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) registered a level of 45.0 in December. Down from 46.5, the PMI subsequently posted a 44-month low. Output continued to decline markedly, with the sharpest contraction again seen in the capital goods producing sector. Total manufacturing production has now fallen for seven months in a row, with the latest reduction the sharpest seen since April 2011. Falling volumes of incoming new business was the primary factor driving manufacturing output lower in December. As was the case with output, the fall in new order volumes was the steepest since April 2011, although the rate of decline was considerably sharper than seen for production. New export order volumes also continued to fall in December, with companies reporting that demand from Chinese and European markets remained sluggish. The fall in orders from abroad was the steepest since July, with investment goods producers recording the steepest reduction. Cheaper Yen Cannot Save Japan Nearly every day someone sends me an email stating Japan's manufacturing and export machine will pick up with a falling yen. Will it? Why? Japan is in an economic war with China over disputed islands so that part of Japan's export business is dead, and will remain dead. In isolation, a falling Yen will help Japanese exports to Europe. However, Europe is in a severe, as well as worsening recession, so a falling Yen alone will not revive sales. In the US, car buyers are not as in love with Japanese cars as they once were, and the US has its own share of problems in a weakening if not outright recessionary economy. Finally, a falling Yen will exacerbate Japan's energy problems as Japan is totally dependent on imports to meet its energy needs.  Japan wants inflation, but this is a strong case of "be careful of what you ask, because you may get it". Inflation is likely to destroy Japan, the real question is "when". For more on Japan, please see December 16: Spotlight on Japan: Return of 'Abenomics', More Militarism, Tougher China Line; Outlook for Yen and Nikkei   December 19: Kyle Bass on the End of the Debt Supercycle and a Coming Massive Devaluation of the Yen; Most Difficult Time to Invest; The Belief Bubble   December 23: Yen Declines Following Shinzo Abe's Threat to Change Japanese Law; An Idle Threat?   December 26: Mad, Mad World; Japan Prime Minister Unveils "Crisis Beating" Cabinet With Pledge to Increase Spending; Yen Sinks to Two-Year Low Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com "Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish Click on Image to Learn More Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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