Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Rand Paul Keynote Speaker in Palatine, Illinois Monday, March 4th
- Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement On Verge of Being Largest Political Party in Italy; Italy Stock Market Futures Plunge 3.5%
- Italy Senate "Ungovernable"; No Coalition Possible
- Real Time Italian Election Data and Projections; TV Projections Show Berlusconi Coalition Leading in Italy Senate
- "Great Rebalancing" Book Review: Two Thumbs Up; Investment Ideas for Unconventional Times
| Rand Paul Keynote Speaker in Palatine, Illinois Monday, March 4th Posted: 25 Feb 2013 03:44 PM PST Senator Rand Paul is the keynote speaker for a dinner fundraiser on Monday, March 4th, 2013 at 6PM at The Cotillion in Palatine Illinois. Tickets are $100. I picked up a couple of them. If anyone would like to join me at my table for dinner and drinks after, you can get tickets through EventBrite. Money goes to support Northwest Suburban Cook County Republican Township Organizations. Tuesday, February 26 is the last day for ticket sales, so please immediately Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 25 Feb 2013 02:16 PM PST As the vote totals wind down, Beppe Grillo is the symbolic winner in the election. His MoVimento 5 Stelle (MS5 - Five Star Movement) is on the verge of becoming the largest party in Italy by popular vote. As of 4:00 PM... The center-left coalition of four political parties has 29.7% of the vote, but Bersani's party, Partito Democratico (Pd), has 25.5% of the vote. Beppe Grillo has no coalition. His MoVimento 5 Stelle (M5S) party is in a dead tie with 25.5% of the vote. The center-right coalition of nine political parties received 29.0% of the vote, but Berlusconi's party, Il Popolo della libertà (Pdl), received 21.4% of the vote. On an Actual Party (Not Coalition Basis)
Those totals are as of 4:00 Central. I have been watching the totals for a half hour. M5S has been inching up steadily. A half hour ago M5S was down by .5%. Momentum suggests M5S will overtake Partito Democratico (Pd). Italy MIB Stock Market Futures Plunge From the Guardian Election Blog  Update As of 4:20 PM Grillo move into a vote lead for the first time I have been watching. Percentages still locked at 25.5% each. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Italy Senate "Ungovernable"; No Coalition Possible Posted: 25 Feb 2013 11:35 AM PST La Republica confirms what we long thought highly likely: The Italian Senate is Ungovernable. A Senate majority takes 158 seats and no party has more than 123 at the moment. The current results look like this: Senate Seat Projections
There are 315 total seats and the total above is only 301. Although 14 seats remain, not even a Monti-Bersani coalition in addition to those 14 seats would bring Bersani's total to 158. Curiously, it appears Bersani received a plurality of the Senate popular vote with 32% compared to Berlusconi's 30.2%. Grillo weighs in with 23.9%, and Monti at 9.1%. If 123-104 in favor of Berlusconi over Bersani sounds strange, it is not unlike a presidential election in the US where one candidate wins the popular vote and another candidate wins the election based on state-by-state electoral votes. Chamber Comparison to US In Italy, both houses of parliament share duties equally. In the US, financial bills originate in the House, and only the Senate has a say in approval of judges and cabinet-level positions. "AC" writes ..."Most likely Italy will go back to vote within a couple of months, probably after changing the electoral law." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 25 Feb 2013 09:00 AM PST Reader Lorenzo sent a link where one can watch Italian Election Results (actual vote totals, not exit poll predictions). Click on "Camera" to see Chamber results (lower house of parliament). Click on "Senato" to see Senate results (upper house of parliament). As of this time, Results look like this Chamber
Senate
Recall that senate races are regional not national. What matters is how the key regions turn out. Berlusconi can easily win the Senate with small wins in key areas while losing by big margins elsewhere. That appears to be what is happening. Berlusconi Coalition Leading in Italy Senate Yahoo! Finance reports TV Projections Show Berlusconi Coalition Leading in Italy Senate. The centre-right coalition led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was leading in the race for the Italian Senate, according to updated projections from television stations after vote counting began on Monday.Hung Parliament on the Way The key vote is in the Senate where in spite of losing the popular vote, it appears Berlusconi will win. Recall there is an 8% threshold requirement in the Senate for a candidate to get any seats. Unless Monti hangs on to that 9%, he will be out, making a senate coalition impossible even if Bersani does mange to pull this off. A hung parliament is likely on the way. This was a poor showing for Bersani's Center-Left party and a fantastic second place finish for Grillo in the Chamber. No mainstream media outlets projected the combination of a hung parliament combined with a second-place finish for Grillo, but reader "AC" did just that on my blog. Comments From "AC" "AC" just pinged at 11:00AM Central with these thoughts ...Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| "Great Rebalancing" Book Review: Two Thumbs Up; Investment Ideas for Unconventional Times Posted: 25 Feb 2013 12:31 AM PST With much pleasure, I highly recommend Michael Pettis' newest book "The Great Rebalancing". Pettis' book covers global trade issues with a focus on current events in Asia, Europe, the United States, and the commodity producing nations. Read the book and you will see that much of the "common wisdom" espoused by others on global trade issues is not "wisdom" at all. For example, in a chapter called "The Exorbitant Burden", Pettis debunks the nearly universal misconception that the United States receives a great benefit from having the world's reserve currency. That chapter alone, is well worth the price of many books. Want to understand why the Eurozone is doomed as it now exists? Read Pettis' chapter "The Case For Europe". Other reviews of "The Great Rebalancing" (all favorable) primarily focused on Pettis' predictions. Although I agree with most of his predictions, what's really important are the fundamental driving issues, not the predictions per se. As far as solutions go, I prefer a return to a gold standard (a topic Pettis discusses while favoring something else). However, his book is primarily devoted to trade fundamentals, not global solutions, so disagreements (or agreements) on solutions are easily overlooked. Michael Pettis has taught me most of what I know about global trade. I also happen to believe he is the world's foremost expert on China in relation to trade and global macro events. I give two thumbs up to "The Great Rebalancing". Investment Ideas for Unconventional Times Michael Pettis will be a speaker at an economic conference I am hosting on April 5th in Sonoma, California. For details, please see Wine Country Conference. World-class speakers at the conference include John Hussman, Michael Pettis, Jim Chanos, John Mauldin, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, and Chris Martenson. Yahoo! Finance Joins the Conference I'm pleased to announce that Yahoo! Finance is joining the conference as our media partner. The wonderful Lauren Lyster, of Yahoo! Finance's Daily Ticker, will be moderating several of the panels for the day. This is an experience not to be missed. The access you will have to these speakers and their insights doesn't happen easily. This is the first time many of these speakers have ever appeared together. The event is made possible in part by a generous $100,000 matching grant by the John P. Hussman Foundation for the benefit of ALS Research. For my personal experiences with ALS, please see My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs. Hope to see you at the conference. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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