marți, 26 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Less Than Useless: Goldman Sachs Lowers Gold Forecast Following Plunge (Purposely Late?); Downside Risks

Posted: 26 Feb 2013 11:10 AM PST

In the less than useless category, Goldman Sachs lowered its gold price targets by over $200 an ounce following the recent plunge. Goldman now says Gold's Cycle Seen Turned.
The cycle for gold prices, which climbed for 12 straight years, has probably turned as the recovery in the U.S. economy gathers momentum and investment holdings collapse, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which reduced forecasts for the metal.

The bank cut its three-month target to $1,615 an ounce from $1,825 and lowered the six- and 12-month forecasts to $1,600 and $1,550 from $1,805 and $1,800. Goldman reversed an assumption exchange-traded products holdings will expand in 2013, analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a Feb. 25 report.

Soros Sells

Billionaire investors George Soros and Louis Moore Bacon cut their stakes in gold ETPs last quarter, while John Paulson maintained his share, government filings showed this month. Global holdings reached a record 2,632.5161 tons on Dec. 20.

Gold futures fell to $1,554.30 on Feb. 21, the lowest since June 29, after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting showed debate over the pace of asset purchases.

"Our economists believe that the downside risks to their forecasts have diminished while the uncertainty about the size of QE3 is high," the Goldman report said. "We believe that a shift has occurred over the past few months with conviction in holding gold waning quickly."
Downside Risks and QE Uncertainty

In contrast to the opinion of Goldman, I would like to note there is little uncertainty about QE. Bernanke is insanely committed to the idea.

In regards to downside risks to the economy I will also take the other side.

Downside Risks

  • The 2% payroll tax hike is going to take a far bigger bite out of the economy than most think.
  • The "sequester effect" will be small, yet larger than most think
  • Europe is an absolute basket case and will get worse
  • China is slowing down and overheating at the same time from an inflation standpoint (See China Overheating? Biggest Weekly Cash Drain in History; Questions Surface Over Chinese Growth Numbers)
  • Global rebalancing in general is not off to a good start
  • US budget cuts are anemic and far more should come. The only upside is if none come, and that effect would be a temporary sideways push because more stimulus is not in the cards, even if needed.

It is incredulous for Goldman to state diminished downside risks.

Gold Action

With Soros and others selling, and with Goldman (and/or JP Morgan) likely front-running the trade by shorting futures at illiquid times, perhaps we have already seen the bottom at $1554.

Unlike others who believe gold is constantly manipulated lower, I believe manipulation is equal in both directions. Look at it this way: In contrast to what GATA says, Goldman and JP Morgan do not care which direction gold (or silver) is going, only that they make a profit by front-running the surge in volume.

After a rebound in price, expect Goldman to change its forecast again, telling everyone why they should buy gold. This is the way Wall Street parasites work (even if in this example I am early with this forecast).

A quick check now shows gold has already rebounded to $1616, up $30 on the day. Where to from here? I don't know, but with Soros and other big sellers out of the way, and with Goldman and other market makers front-running the trades lower, I like my chances here, quite a lot.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Youth Vote Propels Five Star Movement Into First Place as Largest Political Party in Italy

Posted: 26 Feb 2013 09:32 AM PST

By a very slim margin Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement is the largest political party in Italy. Young voters and first-time voters are responsible for the surge (see comments from "AC" below).

Here are the official election results.

Chamber

  • GIUSEPPE PIERO GRILLO - MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE - 8,689.168 - 25.55%
  • PIER LUIGI BERSANI - PARTITO DEMOCRATICO - 8,644,187 Votes - 25.42%   
  • SILVIO BERLUSCONI - IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTA' - 7.332.667 Votes - 21.56%
  • MARIO MONTI - SCELTA CIVICA CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA - 2,824,001 Votes - 8.30%

Bersani gets 55% of the Chamber seats because his center-left coalition barely beat Berlusconi's center-right coalition by a 29.54% to 29.18% margin otherwise Berlusconi would be courting Beppe Grillo (likely to no avail) to form a coalition.

Senate

  • PIER LUIGI BERSANI - PARTITO DEMOCRATICO - 8,399,991 Votes - 27.43%
  • GIUSEPPE PIERO GRILLO - MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE - 7,285,648 - 23.79%
  • SILVIO BERLUSCONI - IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTA' - 6,829,135 Votes - 22.30%
  • MARIO MONTI - SCELTA CIVICA CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA - 2,797,451 Votes - 9.13%

The center-left received a higher percentage of votes than the center-right by a 31.63% to 30.72% margin. However, Senate seats are assigned based on regional totals and the result will be something like a 119 to 117 spit with the Five Star Movement picking up 54 Seats. A majority takes 158 so no coalition is likely.

Comments From "AC"

Reader "AC" who is from Italy but now lives in France writes ...
Final result are now available: M5S is the first political party at the Chamber of representatives, by a mere 46k voters. The Center-Left coalition scored first as coalition and therefore received a 55% majority of seats in the Chamber. There is no majority in the Senate and no possible majority even combining Bersani with Monti, so the result is a hung Parliament, exactly the forecast I made months ago.

In the Senate M5S is not the first party and scored a little bit less (23.79%). The main differences in the voters between Chamber and Senate is that to vote for the Chamber you must be eighteen, for the Senate you need to be 25 years old. This means that youngest part of the population and first-time voters voted massively for M5S.

Regards

AC
Flashback June 29, 2012: Time-Lapse Interactive Graph Shows Stunning Rise in Anti-Euro Sentiment in Italy led by Beppe Grillo Five Star Movement.

Flashback June 27, 2012: Reader from Italy Explains Why Early Elections Might Lead to "Deadlock"
Explaining Italian Politics

Reader "AC" who is from Italy but now lives in France, has some observations and comments on Italian politics in response to Monti Threatens to Resign if No Eurobonds; Specter of Early Elections

Monti's days are indeed numbered because he will step down at the end of legislature (spring 2013) and he will not seek for renewal of his mandate in the new one. However, his term could be even shorter.

There could be early elections before the natural term. ... the most likely outcome of the next election in Italy is a deadlock ... the Senate will most likely be fragmented with no majority at all. To govern, you need majority on both.
Explaining the Surge for Grillo

  1. Youth unemployment of 27%
  2. People in general tired of austerity
  3. People in general fed up with corruption in the major political parties

There were early elections and the result was indeed a deadlock.

Thanks to "AC" I have been following Beppe Grillo since early 2012. Mainstream media mostly ignored Beppe Grillo until after the election, shocked by a result we predicted long ago.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

China Overheating? Biggest Weekly Cash Drain in History; Questions Surface Over Chinese Growth Numbers

Posted: 25 Feb 2013 11:57 PM PST

In December I suggested the modest bounce in China PMI would not last. It didn't. The allegedly sustainable recovery in China is already in question.

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ shows manufacturing conditions barely above contraction.
Key points

  • Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 50.4 (52.3 in January). 4-month low.
  • Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 50.9 (53.1 in January). 4-month low




Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The Chinese economy is still on track for a gradual recovery. Despite the moderation of February's flash PMI, the index recorded the fourth consecutive reading above the 50 critical line. The underlying strength of Chinese growth recovery remains intact, as indicated by the still expanding employment and the recent pick-up of credit growth."
Questions Surface Over Chinese Growth Numbers

Those expecting China to be in some sort of sustainable recovery with Europe in a major recession and the US in a big slowdown if not outright recession are a bit delusional.

Please consider China's Premature Overheating.
China began this year with an off-the-charts explosion in credit issuance. Last week, it broke records again, this time for the amount of cash drained from its banking system. The record credit issuance of 2.5 trillion yuan ($400 billion) in January — comprising both bank lending and non-bank financial institutions' credit — always looked as if it was verging on the reckless.

The surprise perhaps is that this reversal came so early. The central bank withdrew 910 billion yuan from the economy via open-market operations last week, its biggest weekly cash drain ever.

This action coincided with warnings from Beijing for local governments to keep a tight reign on property-market speculation, amid fears of bubbles reappearing. On Friday, the government further extended its existing battery of property taxes to try to take the heat out of the market. The new measures target non-residential property and buyers of second homes.

In recent weeks, the Chinese capital has literally ground to a halt due to smog worsened by traffic and factories. Nomura says in a new report that pollution has got so bad, it may force policy change on the government, which will inevitably reduce growth in the short term. An unusual appendix in the report was a nationwide map of Particulate Matter (PM) readings.

 It has always been hard to square away China's position as a low-cost manufacturing hub, while at the same time having some of the highest-priced real estate in the world. Some economists have an explanation: The numbers are plain wrong.

Standard Chartered Bank's Stephen Green questions if China's growth in 2012 might have only been 5.5%, even as the official figure was 7.8%.

And if China's inflation has been running at a higher pace than we thought, reining it in could prove more difficult. How soon before investors need to worry again about what landing lies ahead for China's overheating economy?
No one really knows the true state of China's GDP, but many of us do realize it's overstated, perhaps by a large amount. GDP is not a good measure of the true state of the economy anyway, with fiscal stimulus everywhere you look.

Realistic Outlook



GDP aside, global rebalancing has just begun, and it may take a decade to finish. Expectations that the worst is behind us in China and in Europe is about to be shattered on the hard rocks of reality.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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