miercuri, 27 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Is Inflation the Legacy of the Federal Reserve?

Posted: 27 Feb 2013 09:39 PM PST

In testimony to Congress on February 27, Bernanke bragged that inflation under his and Greenspan's watch was a mere 2% a year.

Of course Bernanke ignored a housing boom and bust. He also ignored a a dotcom boon and bust, a global financial crisis, numerous bank bailouts, and a policy of "too big to fail" that is now "even bigger".

Fed Inflation

A Bloomberg video exposes Bernanke as nothing but a charlatan. Please consider Hockey Stick Inflation.



Inflation Targeting at 2% Per Year

Bernanke brags about a 2% inflation rate as if it is something to brag about. It's not. This is what it looks like over time.

Inflation Targeting at 2% a Year



click on any chart for sharper image

Hockey Stick Inflation



Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita



See the Problem?

Hopefully so, because it's obvious. The moment (for any reason) wages stop rising at the rate of inflation, the system is in stress. Why might wages stop rising? Global wage arbitrage is certainly one reason.

Even if that did not happen, income skew comes into play. Wages of the top 10% rise far faster than the wages of everyone else. As proof, I present Top 1% Received 121% of Income Gains During the Recovery, Bottom 99% Lose .4%; How, Why, Solutions

Also consider "Too Big To Fail" and other inept government policies as noted in Obama's Infrastructure Mania; Why It's Not Justifiable (And What To Do About It)

The Source of Inflation

If you are looking for "THE" source of inflation, look no further than the Fed, fractional reserve lending, and government policies that benefit those with first access to money (namely the banks and the already wealthy).

Bernanke has the gall to brag about his 2% inflation fighting "achievement", ignoring numerous boom-bust cycles, bank bailouts, and income skew.

The ultimate irony is the Fed and its inflationary policies is the primary reason inflation exists at all.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
Click on Image to Learn More

Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

What Bernanke Didn't Say About Housing (And Everything Else); Bernanke's Ploy

Posted: 27 Feb 2013 07:40 PM PST

Caroline Baum had some interesting comments about Bernanke's testimony before Congress in her writeup What Bernanke Didn't Say About Housing.
One of the more interesting exchanges at Ben Bernanke's testimony to the Financial Services Committee today was the one between the Federal Reserve chairman and Representative Scott Garrett, a Republican from New Jersey.
    
Citing Bernanke's assertion that one of the benefits of QE had been the rise in home prices, Garrett said the following: "Previously you have said that the Fed's monetary policy actions earlier this decade, 2003 to 2005, did not contribute to the housing bubble in the U.S. So which is it? Is monetary policy by the Fed not a cause of inflationary prices of housing, as you said in the past? Or is it a cause of inflating prices of housing? Can you have it both ways?"

"Yes," Bernanke said, much to Garrett's surprise. The increase in home prices now is justified by the low level of mortgage rates, he said. On the other hand, those rates averaged 6 percent in the early part of the last decade and "can't explain why house prices rose as much as they did."
    
What he didn't say was that the percentage of adjustable- rate mortgages soared to a record 37 percent of total mortgage volume in 2005. From mid-2003 to mid-2006, ARM volume averaged 30 percent. The interest rate on ARMs is priced off the Fed's overnight rate. It was this type of loan that witnessed the most egregious underwriting abuses and the highest delinquency and foreclosure rates. Garrett 1, Bernanke 0. ....
Bernanke's Ploy

Bernanke's ploy (as with every central banker) is to absolve themselves of blame for the problems they inevitably cause. Earlier I noted an exchange between Bernanke and Elizabeth Warren that caught Bernanke off guard (see Elizabeth Warren Grills Bernanke on "Too Big to Fail" Policy).

Baum mentioned another one above, and I have a third below.

Sparks Fly: Bernanke Asked to Cut the "Ton of Fat"

Please consider this interesting video between Representative Sean Duffy, a Republican from Wisconsin, confronts Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about cutting the `fat' in the budget.



Link if video does not play Sparks Fly: Bernanke Asked to Cut the "Ton of Fat"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Elizabeth Warren Grills Bernanke on "Too Big to Fail" Policy

Posted: 27 Feb 2013 12:06 PM PST

Inquiring minds are watching Bernanke squirm under pressure from Senator Elizabeth Warren who complains "Too Big To Fail" is now bigger than ever before.



Partial Transcript

Warren: These big financial institutions are getting cheaper borrowing to the tune of $83 billion in a single year, simply because people believe government would step in and bail them out. And, I'm just saying, if  they're getting it, why aren't they paying for it?

Bernanke: I think we should get rid of it.   

Warren: Alright. I'll ask the other question. You were here in July, and you said you commended Dodd-Frank for providing a blueprint to get rid of "Too Big to Fail". We've now understood this problem for nearly five years, so when are we going to get rid of "Too Big to Fail"?

Bernanke: Well, some of the you know uh as we've been discussing, some of these rules take time to develop. Uh, uh. ...."

It's safe to say Bernanke was not prepared for this line of questioning.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Nobody Can't See Nothin'

Posted: 27 Feb 2013 10:19 AM PST

As expected (in this corner but certainly not from economic cheerleaders masquerading as economists), eurozone retail sales are plunging across the board, even in Germany. Let's take a look at a few key reports.

France

The Markit France Retail PMI shows sharpest drop in sales for six months.
Key Points:

  • Sales down markedly on both monthly and annual measures
  • Targets missed to greatest extent in series history
  • Purchasing activity falls at sharpest rate since July 2012 

Summary:

The French retail sector was caught in a deepening downturn during February. Sales fell sharply on both a monthly and annual basis, while there was a survey-record shortfall versus previously set plans. Retailers' gross margins continued to be squeezed by a combination of higher purchasing costs and strong competitive pressures. Stock levels and employment meanwhile both declined. The headline Retail PMI® registered 44.3 during February. The latest reading was down from 47.0 in January, and signalled the steepest month-on-month drop in sales since August 2012.

Gross margins in the French retail sector decreased further in February. The rate of contraction was marked and the sharpest since last October. Survey respondents indicated that margins had been squeezed by a combination of intense competitive pressures and higher purchasing costs.
Italy

The Markit Italy Retail PMI shows Retail sector remains firmly in contraction.
Key points:

  • Monthly rate of decline in sales slowest since last September, though still steep overall
  • Slowest decline in employment for two-and-a-half years
  • Further substantial drop in stock levels

Summary:

The seasonally adjusted Markit Italian Retail PMI® climbed to a five-month high of 40.6 in February, from January's reading of 37.5. This signalled that the monthly rate of decline in sales eased since the start of the year, but nevertheless still remained sharp overall.

Compared with the situation 12 months previously, Italian retail sales were down sharply in February. The year-on-year rate of decline was well in excess of the long-run series average, and slightly faster than in the preceding survey period. Retailers recorded a marked degree of underperformance during the latest survey period, with sales in February well down on levels previously planned for. Moreover, the difference between actual and targeted sales was greater than in the opening month of the year.
Germany

The Markit Germany Retail PMI shows Renewed decline in German retail sales.
Key Points:

  • Retail PMI below 50.0 level for second time in three months
  • Sharpest year-on-year sales decline since April 2010
  • Sales fall short of plans by widest margin since January 2012

Summary:

The seasonally adjusted Germany Retail PMI dipped back below the neutral 50.0 value in February. At 47.6, down from 51.0 in January, the latest reading matched that seen in December and was the joint-lowest for ten months. Survey respondents commented on subdued household demand and lower consumer footfall in relation to unfavourable weather conditions in February.

Sales down sharply on a year-on-year basis

February data indicated that like-for-like sales were down sharply compared to one year earlier. The index measuring retail sales on an annual basis in Germany pointed to the fastest pace of contraction since April 2010. Around 40% of survey respondents noted a drop in sales compared to February 2012, while just one-in-four signalled an increase.

Targets missed to greatest extent in just over a year

Retailers in Germany signalled that their sales in February fell short of targets, and to the greatest degree since January 2012. Over three times as many respondents (46%) reported that sales were below expectations as those that exceeded their initial targets (13%). Although sales disappointed in February, retailers are optimistic on balance about the prospects for sales in one month's time.
Eurozone Composite

The Markit Eurozone Retail PMI shows Record year-on-year fall in Eurozone retail sales in February.
Key points:

  • Fastest annual drop in revenues in nine-year survey history
  • Broad-based weakness by country
  • Retailers' stocks of goods fall at strongest rate in over three years

Summary:

Markit's Eurozone retail PMI® data for February signalled a record year-on-year fall in retail sales revenues in the single currency area. Sales were also down sharply compared with January, as signalled by a PMI reading of 44.5, down from 45.9.



Retail Sales Germany, France, Italy



Germany registered a fourth decline in sales in the past seven months, while French retail sales fell for a survey-record eleventh consecutive month and at the fastest pace since last August. Italy continued to show the strongest overall decline, albeit the weakest since last September. All three countries registered stronger year-on-year falls in retail sales in February. The annual rates of decline in Germany, France and Italy were the
sharpest in 34, nine and two months respectively.
Abysmal (And Going to Get Worse)

I certainly see no reason to change my forecast that eurozone GDP will contract far greater than economists foresee, led by France and Germany.

As noted a month ago, the "Core" of Europe was down to Germany. Analysts and economists will soon discover "Europe is Rotten to the Core"

Mario Draghi did not save Europe with his LTRO program, all he did was delay the inevitable, and at a huge cost too.

One cost can be seen in the Italian elections where voters have had enough of Super Mario Monti, sweeping the technocrat prime minister out of office in a massive rout led by a surge in eurosceptic vote for Beppe Grillo. (See Youth Vote Propels Five Star Movement Into First Place as Largest Political Party in Italy).

In France, and also as expected in this corner Unemployment Highest Since 1997. French GDP estimates have been twice revised lower. They will be revised lower yet again.

How much more pain Greece, Italy, and Spain are willing to take remains to be seen, but it isn't infinite.

Eventually Will Come a Time 

I repeat my November 23, 2011 warning Eventually, Will Come a Time When ....
Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

All it will take, is for one charismatic person, timing social mood correctly, to say precisely one right thing at exactly the right time. It will happen.
When that does happen, expect to hear "Nobody could possibly have seen this coming!"

Clearly we need a new definition of "nobody" because "nobody" saw the rise of Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement, and of course "nobody" saw the housing crash coming either.

Clearly, nobody can't see nothin'.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
Click on Image to Learn More

Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

France Unemployment Highest Since 1997

Posted: 26 Feb 2013 11:53 PM PST

In the easy to see coming category (thanks to the socialist policies of French president Francois Hollande) French unemployment level hits 15-year high.
Unemployment numbers in France rose by 43,000 in January to 3.16 million, an increase of 10.7 percent from last year, the labour ministry revealed on Tuesday. The figure is at its highest since January 1997, when it reached 3.19 million.  

Rising unemployment is a setback for Socialist President Francois Hollande, who has pledged to curb the unemployment rate from the current level of more than 10 percent to a single-digit figure by December.

But mounting economic problems have already forced Hollande to abandon a goal to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3 percent in line with European Union norms after slashing this year's growth forecast.

His government is struggling with weak growth, poor competitiveness, thousands of layoffs and general economic gloom.
This is going to be a bleak year for Europe, with France leading the way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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