marți, 19 martie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Cyprus Conservative Opposition Parliamentary Member Says "If No Solution Soon, Print Cyprus Pounds and Abandon the Euro"

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 09:28 PM PDT

Marios Mavrides, a conservative opposition member of the Cyprus parliament just chimed in with his viewpoint "If No Solution Soon, Print Cyprus Pound and Abandon the Euro".
The conservative opposition parliamentarian of Cyprus, Marios Mavrides, said Wednesday that if his country can not find a solution shortly, it "will begin to print  Cyprus pounds and abandon the euro."

In order to examine alternatives to address the situation is to be created after today's session in Parliament, the President has called a meeting with the leaders of the parliamentary groups for this Wednesday, March 20, at 11.00 hours, according to a statement released by the Presidency.
Joke of the Day

Here's the joke of the day from Eurogroup finance chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem: "I confirm that the Eurogroup stands ready to assist Cyprus in its reform efforts."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Flash and Fantasy; Miami Condo Boom is Back, Fueled by Foreign Buying

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 06:31 PM PDT

Diana Olick has an interesting article called Defying Gravity: Miami Condos Soar Again
During the height of the housing boom, some likened the feverish flipping game in Miami's condominium market to a circus. The circus is back, and more high-flying than ever.

At a recent party to launch a new project from New York-based developer PMG, acrobats swung over the crowd, and in gravity-defying flourish, poured champagne into the glasses of wide-eyed investors.

"It's exactly what we want. We wanted a little bit of show and a lot of flash," said Kevin Maloney, president of PMG, who re-entered the Miami market in 2010 to purchase some of the remaining beachfront and bayside construction sites.

Prices are up nearly 25 percent from a year ago, according to the Miami Area Association of Realtors.

How did it happen? Foreign, all-cash buyers like Venezuelans, Russians, Chinese, Canadians, and Brazilians. They were either looking for a safe-haven to park their money or were taking advantage of a weak dollar. Whatever the reason, they came, they saw, they bought.

"It's mind boggling. I'm perplexed as to how all this can go forward this quickly," said Peter Zalewski of CondoVultures.

PMG's Maloney has sold 100 of the 190 units he plans to build in his "Echo" development and that is without even breaking ground. The rest he hopes to entice with flash and fantasy, which is exactly what Miami is all about.
Flash and Fantasy

Even with that 25% rise from a year ago, prices are still way under where they were in 2005.

That said, my reaction is still the same: Here we go again!

"Echo" is a nice name (as in echo bubble).

Click on the link and watch the video. It's quite entertaining. Clearly the Fed has sponsored yet another bubble as people are once again buying sight unseen. This time, it's primarily foreign buyers.

Will it end any better this time? Probably for the banks simply because they are not deeply involved in funding.

How about the buyers? I think you know the answer to that, but don't expect the Fed to care. Rather, expect them to cheerlead this artificial boom every step of the way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Wine Country Conference

I am hosting an economic conference on April 5 in Sonoma, California. Proceeds go to the Les Turner ALS Foundation (Lou Gehrig's Disease).

Please see My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs for my association with the disease.

To learn about the economic conference with world-class speakers including John Hussman, Michael Pettis, Jim Chanos, John Mauldin, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, Chris Martenson with guest moderator Lauren Lyster and other Special Guests, please visit Wine Country Conference April 5, 2013
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

"Not Me!"; Capital Controls Placed, Banks Closed Until Tuesday; What's the Best That Can Happen?

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 03:56 PM PDT

Banks Closed Until Tuesday

I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today seems to be the message from this tweet from DJ FX Trader "Cyprus Banks Could Stay Closed Until Tuesday March 26".

Capital Controls

Bloomberg confirms in a story EU Said to Discuss Cyprus Capital Controls, Longer Bank Holiday
European policy makers are in Cyprus discussing further capital controls and the extension of a bank holiday through to the end of the week, said a European official familiar with the talks. No decisions have been made yet, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions are confidential.
"Not Me!"

In the meantime, the Cyprus Bailout Blame Game is well underway. No one wants to be the object of "The Big Point".

  • Not me says German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble.
  • Not me says Jörg Asmussen, the ECB executive board member who handled the central bank's negotiations Friday night. Jörg pointed the finger at "negotiations in Brussels"
  • Not me says Pierre Moscovici, the French finance minister who claimed to be against the idea "from the beginning".
  • Olli Rehn, the EU's economic chief may become the object of the "big point". Rehn put on the table a plan for a "relatively benign" levy on smaller savers: 3 per cent for all deposits under €100,000.
  • One unnamed attendant says Ramon Fernandez, the French treasury chief is to blame. "The rest did not care".
  • Another unnamed person pointed a finger Jereon Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chaired the meeting.
  • When Rehn and Anastasiades met in the early morning hours in a small group with Schäuble; Moscovici; Asmussen; Dijsselbloem; and Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, Schäuble was unwilling to play ball. He wanted to move forward with a full bail-in, and had the backing of Finland and Slovakia. A counter-proposal was put on the table by Dijsselbloem that would have seen the rate on smaller deposits hit 7.5 per cent, while those over €100,000 would face a 12.5 per cent cut.
  • Rehn had hoped that after setting the top rate at 9.9 per cent, there would be some wiggle room to get the rate on smaller depositors down to a more moderate level by finding cash from tools used in other bailouts, like more garden-variety taxes. But the IMF and Germany wouldn't budge.

Who's to Blame?

Every damn one of them actually. The eurozone was fatally flawed from the beginning. The ECB's interest rate policy of "One Size Fits Germany" fueled the crisis.

There should not have been any deposit insurance, and the ECB should not have insisted Greece would never default (and it was Cypriot banks that were left holding the bag when Greece did default).

Best That Can Happen

The best thing for all involved would be for this to blow up in the EU's face, for Cyprus to exit the eurozone, and for Russia to quickly pick up the pieces so that everyone can see a eurozone exit is not the end of the world, for anyone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

EU Blinks Already? Staged Vote? Cyprus Finance Minister Proposes Deal with Russia; Will That Fly?

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 12:55 PM PDT

Staged Vote?

In spite of the 1-Not Present, 36-No, 19-abstentions vote in the Cypriot parliament, one really has to wonder if this was a staged vote to show solidarity with Cypriot citizens, with some sort of face-saving deal already approved for tomorrow (in which the Cypriot parliament votes yes by a slim majority in return for minor concessions from the ECB and Germany).

In short, it is unclear if we really know what is happening in the Cypriot parliament.

Note: I originally posted that as 1-Yes vote but the "1" was actually a member of parliament who was not present.

EU Blinks Already?

While pondering that thought, please consider the Bloomberg Tweet "The ECB reaffirms its commitment to provide liquidity as needed within the existing rules"

What precisely does that ECB statement mean? Did the ECB just blink, or was that a meaningless statement counting on "existing rules" to lay the hammer on Cyprus once things calm down a bit?

What About Russia?

In other conflicting news, a CNBC headline reads Gazprom Is or Is Not Offering Cyprus a Bailout.
The latest news: Russian energy giant Gazprom either has or has not offered to bail out the country in exchange for exploration rights.

Cypriot President Nicos Anstasiades is not willing to discuss the Russian's offer, according to Newsit, [which] cited an anonymous source close to the President.

But the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS says no such offer is on the table although the offer has been "initiated." Also, Gazprombank's spokesman both could and could not be reached for comment.
Well, that sure clears things up, doesn't it?

And adding to the confusion, there were rumors today that Cyprus Finance Minister Resigns, President Refuses To Accept Resignation, complete with official denials.

Is there a Gazprom Offer On the Table?

World News Australia reports Cyprus finance minister heads to Russia amid an explosion of anger over a bank levy that could cost investors billions of euros.
Cyprus Finance Minister Michalis Sarris is heading to Moscow amid an explosion of anger over an EU bailout deal that could cost Russian investors billions of euros.

Local media said the main aim of the visit was to discuss a 2.5 billion euros ($A3.14 billion) loan that Moscow extended to Nicosia in 2011 at a rate of 4.5 per cent.

Sarris's brief was to lower that rate and extend the loan's expiration date until 2020 from 2016, the reports said.

In exchange, Moscow was reported to be seeking details about Russian billionaires who held accounts on the island. Russia was also said to be interested in buying a majority stake in Cypriot lender Patriot Bank that is in need of rescue.
Cyprus Finance Minister Proposes Deal with Russia

The Wall Street Journal reports Cyprus Finance Minister to Offer New Plan in Bid for Russian Support
Cyprus's finance minister is set to present a plan to his Russian counterpart in Moscow Wednesday aimed at saving the country's financial sector, a government official said Tuesday.

The official said that Michalis Sarris, who is being accompanied by a delegation of businessmen, is going to propose a deal that includes imposing a 20% to 30% levy on Russian-held deposits in Cypriot banks, which could cost them billions of euros. In exchange, Russia will be given equity in Cyprus's future national gas company and some additional strategic benefits in the sector, while Russian investors would be given control of the board of directors at Cyprus's banks.

There were unconfirmed reports Tuesday that Mr. Sarris had resigned as finance minister, but officials did say he was on a plane heading for Russia.

However, the deal looks like a long shot. Ahead of the visit, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "It's practically impossible to talk without knowing the details."

"The situation is very difficult--unprecedented--and we don't understand what's happening," he said. Mr. Putin hasn't spoken to his Cypriot counterpart, he added.
What's Really Happening?

"The situation is very difficult--unprecedented--and we don't understand what's happening."

That line is a succinct summation of the situation regarding staged votes, the possibility of the ECB blinking, and Gazprom offers.

One thing is for sure, if the ECB did blink, one of the reasons would be fear of driving Cyprus further into the hands of Russia.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Cypriot Lawmakers Overwhelmingly Reject EU Demands; What's Next?

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 11:45 AM PDT

From the library of genuine news, Reuters reports Cyprus parliament rejects deposit tax for bailout.
Cypriot lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected a deeply unpopular tax on bank deposits on Tuesday, throwing into doubt an international bailout for the troubled euro zone member needed to avert default and a banking collapse.

The 56-seat parliament voted by 36 votes against and 19 abstentions to bury the bill, a condition of a 10 billion euro European Union bailout for the Mediterranean island. One deputy was absent.
What's Next?

First, I commend  the Cypriot lawmakers. Of course, they will likely vote on this again and again, until they "get it right".

Second, please note the rumor mill was wrong as I expected. The Telegraph Live Blog reports "Michalis Sarris, Cyprus's finance minister, is definitely staying put. He's just sent Bloomberg a text message to say just that, the newswire reports."

Third, expect pressure on Cypus from the ECB, EU, Russia, the IMF, US, and UK.

Finally, expect banks and the stock market to remain closed until parliament approves some face-saving deal, or Cyprus abandons the euro and returns to the Cypriot pound.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Straight from the Rumor Mill

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 11:12 AM PDT

Speculation on Cyprus is rampant. It is difficult to separate fact from fantasy as reports as to what is happening vary widely.

For example Ekathimerini reports "Cypriot Finance Minister Michalis Sarris is about to be replaced upon his return from his current trip to Moscow, Kathimerini understands, as he no longer enjoys the support of President Nicos Anastasiades following his handling of the crisis."

The ZeroHedge version of the story is Cyprus Finance Minister Resigns, President Refuses To Accept Resignation.

There is quite a bit of difference between being forced out and resigning.

Neither site provided links to their stories. The Telegraph live blog just chimed in with "17.39 Cyprus's finance minister has told Reuters that there is "not truth" to reports of his resignation."

Of course, no link was provided to Reuters. The sad state of affairs in blogging is many sites do not link to anything but themselves, and when you search for a story, you often cannot find it.

Here are more unreferenced reports from the above linked-to live blog.
16.29 More from AFP, which now says that although the Cypriot parliament has opened a session to vote, it is unclear whether any voting will take place as all parties - including the ruling party of President Anastasiades - have threatened to abstain.

16.18 The bailout vote is going ahead, even though it is doomed to fail (16.15). According to French news agency AFP, debate in the Cypriot parliament has just opened.

16.15 The party of Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades will abstain from taking part in a parliamentary vote on an EU bailout due to be held on Tuesday, a party member said.
Seriously guys, I understand that if there is no link, you cannot provide one, but otherwise, how hard would it be for the Telegraph to have made "AFP" a link.

Straight From the Book of Official Denials

Straight from the book official denials (typically lies) , comes this set of official statements courtesy of the Reuters Cyprus aims to let small savers off bank tax; veto still likely

  • "The feeling I'm having is that the house is going to reject the bill," President Nicos Anastasiades told reporters earlier in the day. Asked why, he added: "Because they feel and they think that it is unjust and it's against the interests of Cyprus at large." 
  • Three parties have said outright they will not support the tax, while a fourth, in the governing coalition, said it cannot support it as it stands.
  • French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said the euro zone could not lend Cyprus any more, since the country's debt would become unmanageable. "Above 10 billion euros we are entering into a size of debt that is not sustainable," Moscovici told reporters in Paris. 
  • Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs the group of euro zone finance ministers, said there would be no need to impose a levy in other euro countries. 
  • Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Anshu Jain told a Bundesbank conference in Frankfurt. "We see near term contagion risk as limited. This is unlikely to be a model for other European Union states."

Clearly, rumors are flowing as are lies and official denials.

Meanwhile, Cyprus ATMs are drained of cash, the stock exchange is suspended, and votes have already been postponed numerous times.

I am hoping the Cypriot parliament rejects the deal outright, and on that score we will see soon enough unless they postpone the vote again.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Laughable Hypocrisy from the Thick Book of EU Lies and Hypocritical Statements

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 10:03 AM PDT

Here's one for the thick book of EU lies and hypocritical statements "Deposit guarantees only protect against bankruptcy, not levies"

Guarantees on deposits in the European Union are only there if a bank completely collapses, and does not protect from fiscal steps decided by parliaments, the European Commission said on Tuesday, defending a decision to impose a levy in Cyprus.

Excuse Me!

What are the Cyprus banks, if not shutdown, collapsed, and bankrupt?

Furthermore, any move by the ECB to withholding liquidity (and that is the threat), would immediately make them bankrupt, were they not bankrupt already.

By extension, if the EC was telling the truth, all Cyprus need do is not pass the "tax", thereby forcing the banks into bankruptcy the moment the ECB withheld funds, thereby triggering the guarantee.

These idiots obviously have no idea how ridiculous they sound.

To top it off, such statements are likely to fuel further speculation about forced depositor bail-ins  in Spain, Portugal, and Italy.

In essence, it proves there really is no deposit guarantee at all.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

From Smoldering Ashes Comes Good News of Reality

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 12:03 AM PDT

It's easy enough to focus on the smoldering ashes of the politically and economically insane move in Cyprus by the heavy-handed bureaucrats in Brussels and Germany.

Instead, I suggest we focus on the bright side, and there is plenty to be found.

  1. The nannycrats have been permanently exposed as liars
  2. Trust is gone
  3. Everyone can now clearly see that deposit guarantees were a lie
  4. Realization has set in that in spite of nannycrat denial, this will happen again
  5. The move in Cyprus will strengthen the Five Star Movement in Italy
  6. The move in Cyprus will embolden the separatists in Spain
  7. The move in Cyprus will strengthen UKIP in Great Britain
  8. The move in Cyprus is even likely to strengthen Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
  9. Eurobonds and joint budgets are exposed as dead
  10. In Germany, Merkel is likely to have won a Pyrrhic victory (if indeed she won anything at all)
  11. Sensible people now realize all this talk of European solidarity is a gigantic lie
  12. Even ardent supporters of the eurozone are now starting to question its existence

That is one heck of a lot of good things for the bargain basement price of a mere €5.8 billion.

If Europe could not come together to scrape up a mere €5.8 billion to rescue tiny Cyprus, what exactly can they come up with? The answer of course is nothing.

Philosophically speaking, Northern and Southern Europe could not possibly be wider apart.

 No Union, Only Dreams

There is no union, only foolish dreams of one. There is no solidarity, only talk.

Yet the talk has changed. I was wondering exactly what it would take to light a fire in Telegraph columnist Ambrose-Evans Pritchard and we now have the answer.

Pritchard says Daylight robbery in Cyprus will come to haunt EMU. But so have two-dozen others. What struck me was these paragraphs.
They [EU creditor States] have demonstrated that the rhetoric of EMU solidarity is just hot air, that they will not force their own taxpayers to share a single cent of clean-up costs for the great joint venture of monetary union.

The sooner this is made clear, the better. The sooner they take the proper course of withdrawing from EMU and organise the break-up the euro in the least disruptive way, the sooner Europe can recover.
America and China must crush Germany into submission

Please compare the above paragraphs with an article Pritchard wrote on November 9, 2011: America and China must crush Germany into submission
As we watch Italy's 10-year bond yields near 7.5pc and threaten to detonate the explosive charge on €1.9 trillion of debt, it is time for the world to reimpose order.

Yes, this means mobilizing the full-firepower of the ECB – with a pledge to change EU Treaty law and the bank's mandate – and perhaps some form of quantum leap towards a fiscal and debt union.

The EU Project has become both dangerous and insane.
Two days later, on November 11, 2011, I wrote a rebuttal: We Must Crush Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Nouriel Roubini, Martin Wolf, the Army of Krugmanites into Submission; Reflections on "Dangerous and Insane"
Reflections on "Dangerous and Insane"

  • What's dangerous and insane is economists like Prichard demanding treaties be tossed to the wind to test poorly thought out economic ideas.
  • What's dangerous and insane is economic theory that says printing presses are the answer. It has never worked in history and will not work now.
  • What's dangerous and insane is more leverage. Didn't Lehman and LTCM prove that? How many more times do we have to prove that before it sinks in?
  • What's dangerous and insane is the idea is that central banks can impose their will on the world.
  • What's dangerous and insane is doing the same damn thing over and over and over again hoping for a different result
  • What's dangerous and insane is the moral hazard policy of time-and-time-again forcing the 99% to bail out the 1%.

The world will not end if banks fail. Forcing the 1% (banks and bank bondholders) to take a hit will not cause the world to end either, nor will it cause lending to cease.
In my rebuttal, I also wrote "Widespread debt restructuring and partial break-up of the eurozone is where we are headed, and the debate ought to be how to do that correctly instead of how to achieve the impossible."

As you can see, Pritchard finally has it correct. Given that he was one of the original eurosceptics, I knew he would eventually come around.

It's one thing for eurosceptics to finally get back on the right track, but it's another thing indeed for dyed in the wool euro supporters to begin questioning the euro itself.

Wolfgang Münchau, founder of Eurointelligence and columnist on the Financial Times is one such euro supporter.

The Failure of the Euro-Politicians

Please consider Münchau's recent column on Der Spiegel Expropriation in Cyprus: The Failure of the Euro-politicians.
The euro finance ministers will partially expropriate bank customers in Cyprus. This decision is the worst accident in the monetary union. Anyone now trusting his savings to a southern-European bank must be pretty naive.

It was by far the most stupid and dangerous decision the politicians in the euro zone have made. Europe's finance ministers have knitted the Cyprus package with hot needle - and triggered a fire storm.

The fatal mistake was to try to overturn deposit insurance for savers. What's important is not the formal legal nature of the guarantee but its credibility in Cyprus and elsewhere. In the euro zone deposits are insured up to 100,000 euros. If now the government comes and says: we'll take money by a property tax, then the trust is gone. This action constitutes theft.
When Tanks Are Needed

Reader Bernd translated the final two paragraphs as follows ...
"Readers of my column know, that I have always defended the Euro, including the instruments (tools) needed to make it a success. However, there comes a point when it is no longer morally acceptable to uphold a currency if Governments and Parliaments do not have the will and the insight to manage it properly.

The day approaches when the Euro can only be defended with tanks. When that happens, the Euro will no longer be worth defending"
And so here we are, at long last, with ardent supporters finally questioning whether this experiment can work. The answer should now be obvious to all: it can't.

So we finally need to do what I suggested long ago, start frank discussions on how to break up the eurozone in the least disruptive manner.

Wine Country Conference

I am hosting an economic conference on April 5 in Sonoma, California. Proceeds go to the Les Turner ALS Foundation (Lou Gehrig's Disease).

Please see My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs for my association with the disease.

To learn about the economic conference with world-class speakers including John Hussman, Michael Pettis, Jim Chanos, John Mauldin, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, Chris Martenson with guest moderator Lauren Lyster and other Special Guests, please visit Wine Country Conference April 5, 2013
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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