vineri, 22 martie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Regrets Pour In; Cyprus Parliament Passes Bailout Plan; Will Her Highness Approve?

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 04:32 PM PDT

The Cypriot parliament passed bailout measures today, but they are not quite the measures that Her Highness, Angela Merkel approves. They are not measures Cypriot citizens will approve of either.

Let's take a look at the present state of blackmail, as passed by Cyprus and reported by the BBC.
MPs in Cyprus have voted to restructure the island's banks - one of several measures to ease the crisis, which has hit confidence in the eurozone. They have also approved a "national solidarity fund" and capital controls to prevent a bank run. MPs did not vote on a key measure - a levy on large bank deposits. They rejected similar moves on Tuesday.

The "solidarity fund" would allow the pooling of state assets for an emergency bond issue, reports the Reuters news agency. These include future gas revenues and some pension funds - an idea that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has strongly condemned.

Ms Merkel had warned Cyprus not to "exhaust the patience of its eurozone partners", reports say.

Businesses in Cyprus have been insisting on payment in cash, rejecting card and cheque transactions. "We have pressure from our suppliers who want only cash," Demos Strouthos, manager of a restaurant in central Nicosia, told AFP news agency.

Our correspondent says he has never seen this much pressure being applied to a member state by the rest of the eurozone community in recent years.
Regrets Pour In

The Financial Times reports Cyprus laments end of way of life
When he was finance minister a decade ago, Takis Klerides helped steer Cyprus into the EU and the single currency, a defining achievement for a once-impoverished island nation that is far closer to Beirut than Brussels.

But on Friday, with Cypriots contemplating the steep price of an EU bailout, Mr Klerides sounded like a man with regrets.

"We found out the hard way that it's not a family," he said of the EU, arguing that the bloc's biggest members "dictate the terms and everyone else falls in line. It's becoming a dictatorship."

"The European project is crashing to earth," Athanasios Orphanides, who until recently served as central bank governor, said in a separate interview in which he dubbed Cyprus' treatment by European leaders "the bullying of a people".

Nicos Michaelas, the general manager of an investment company, Demetra Investment, put it even more bluntly: "We expected our European friends to help and they put a gun to our heads."
Hello Cyprus, Please Meet Reality

Merkel does not give a damn about you, all she cares about is her September reelection prospects and hardball with you helps those chances. But please, don't take it personal.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

German Economist Proposes "One Time" Cyprus-Like 15% Wealth Tax on Italians; Italy Proposes Easing Stability Pact; Is Italy the Next Cyprus?

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 12:45 PM PDT

Once trust is lost it is very slow to recover. For now, much of Europe is acting as if it believes Cyprus is a "one time" thing? But isn't that what we heard about Greece? Who is next? Italy?

In an article on Handelsblatt the chief economist of Commerzbank says: Italy should bring a unique wealth tax.
It is a myth to talk of crisis-strapped states. Even the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and the chief economist of Commerzbank, Joerg Kraemer says the numbers suggest a different view.

Kramer relies on surveys of the European Central Bank. Net financial assets of the Italians are 173 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). This is significantly more than the net financial assets of the Germans, which corresponds to 124 percent of GDP, said Kramer for Handelsblatt Online.

"So it would make sense, in Italy for a one-time property tax levy," suggested the Bank economist. "A tax rate of 15 percent on financial assets would probably be enough to push the Italian government debt to below the critical level of 100 percent of gross domestic product."
Reader Bernd suggests Kraemer means a net tax on all assets not just financial ones, but either way the idea is preposterous. Banks always want bailouts to fall on the backs of private citizens not on banks.

Italy's Companies Face Slow 'Death' as Credit Crunch Deepens

While pondering the above confiscation threat, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard the Telegraph reports Italy's Companies Face Slow 'Death' as Credit Crunch Deepens.
Confindustria, the business federation, said 29 percent of Italian firms cannot meet "operational expenses" and are starved of liquidity. A "third phase of the credit crunch" is underway that matches the shocks in 2008-2009 and again in 2011.

In a research report the group said the economy was caught in a "vicious circle" where banks are too frightened to lend, driving more companies over the edge. A thousand are going bankrupt every day.

Franco Bernabè, the head of Telecom Italia, echoed the warnings, lamenting that firms are literally "dying from lack of liquidity". He called on the Bank of Italy to take bolder action to head off disaster. "The Italian economy is being suffocated. The country must intervene rapidly to reinject funds into the economy", he said.

Late payments have become a chronic problem across the board in Italy, with 47,000 official complaints last year. The research group CGIA di Mestre said half of small companies cannot pay their staff on time.
Loans To Businesses and Households Plunge

Backing up what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said with hard data, the Italian site Il Sole 24 Ore reports New Fall in Bank Lending to Households and Businesses.
Loans to businesses and non-financial families continue to face strong decrease. In February, according to the estimates in the monthly report of ABI were down 2.84% trend (-2.79% in January).

In 2012 there has been a strong leap in non-payments, up 8.8% compared to 2011. Compared to 2007, the last year before the crisis, the increase is 45 percent.

Total gross non-performing loans amounted to 6.4% in January 2013, up from 5.4% a year earlier (+17.5% YoY). With regard to small businesses, NPLs has more than doubled since 2008, rising from 3% to 7.4%. NPLs in family businesses rose from 7% to almost 12 percent. Gross NPLs totaled 126.1 billion in January.

In the construction sector companies the number of non-payments rose by 10,700 up 80% since 2007.
Italy Proposes Easing Stability Pact

In the "Germany is Not Going to Like This" category, Il Sole 24 Ore reports Italy Proposes Easing Stability Pact while lowering growth estimates and increasing deficits.
The government intends "loosen the constraints of the stability pact to allow the use of further resources."

Italy finance minister Vittorio Grilli says the proposal is to "increase our potential debt of 20 billion per year in 2013 and 2014, to create the cash on hand to pay for" expenses.

In this context, the government cuts economic growth forecasts: GDP in 2013 will drop by 1.3% from a previous estimate of -0.2%. GDP is expected to drop by 1.7% in 2014.

The 2013 deficit was revised up to 2.9% from 1.8%. The minister stressed that the increase of debt of 40 billion, to pay the debts of the government, is the "ceiling."
Reflections on "The Ceiling"

Note the euphemism "create cash on hand to pay for expenses" by going another 40 billion in debt. Also note the increase in debt of 40 billion euros is "the ceiling".

Care to bet? If so, care to bet that GDP estimates will not be lowered again?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Hollande Announces 20 "Confidence Shock" Measures to Support Home Building

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 09:39 AM PDT

Sticking with his economically insane campaign promise to construct 500,000 new homes in 2013, Hollande Announces 20 Measures to Support Home Building.

Advocating a "confidence shock" to revive the building "against the Emergency Economic, social and environmental" the head of state has shown its desire to remove "all obstacles to construction", while there was about 340,000 starts of new homes in 2012, below the target of 500,000.

Housing Starts Insanity

I commented on this once before but it's worth a repeat now that Hollande is hell-bent on forcing his will on the market.

Reader Tim Wallace helps put the insanity into perspective. Wallace writes ...
Hello Mish

I was astounded to see that France wants 500,000 units of housing starts. According to the World Bank in 2011 France had a population of 65.5 million people. This compares to the USA population of 311.6 million from the same source. Therefore France is approximately 21% the size of the USA. For the USA to have an equivalent number of housing starts to population (the people who would get the units) we would need to have 2,380,952 starts!

We know how that would end.
Indeed, we do know how this would end.

The US is currently running about 890,000 housing starts annually, on a seasonally adjusted basis. And Hollande wants an equivalent 2,380,952 starts "for the public good".

US housing is distressed. However, France is in the midst of a bubble now burst, and it is beyond stupid to keep building anywhere in the face of falling demand.

"Confidence Shock Coming Right Up"

Before the election, people assured me Hollande could not possibly be foolish enough to actually follow through on his campaign promises. To them I say, never underestimate what a socialist fool (or any other kind of politician) might attempt to do.

Should Hollande actually succeed at getting developers to build 500,000 new homes even though developer Nexity predicts 280,000-300,000, I can guarantee you there will be a "confidence shock" because home prices will crash through the floor.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Get While the Gettin' is Good

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 01:49 AM PDT

The understatement of the day comes from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke who essentially says: I'm Dispensable.

"I don't think that I'm the only person in the world who can manage the exit," Bernanke said when asked at a news conference in Washington if he's discussed his plans with President Barack Obama.

What Bernanke said is best translated as "I'll get while the gettin' is good. Besides, I really don't have an exit plan in the first place, nor does anyone else."

  • What better time to leave when the world has forgotten about your ignorance in blowing the biggest housing and debt bubble the world has ever seen? 
  • What better time to leave than when equity and bond prices are back in enormous bubbles?  
  • What better time to dump what comes next on Janet Yellen (the obvious next dove Fed chairperson appointee)?

Bernanke's big hope is that he can keep this house of cards from collapsing until January when his term expires, and Yellen takes over.

He claims he is tired and wants out of the public life. He ought to be tired after sponsoring the world's biggest housing bubble then bailing out every "too big to fail bank" in the wake.

For that, he gets the praise of Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, who says "His knowledge and experience is too valuable to let him go."

What a joke.

Hans Nichols, says "Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, took steps unprecedented in the Fed's 100-year history to steer the economy through its worst crisis since the 1930s."

If Bernanke was a student of the great depression, precisely what did he learn?

The "cause" of the great depression was not inept policies by the Fed in response to the downturn in 1929 as Bernanke proposes. Rather, the "cause" of the great depression was the debt bubble that preceded it, just as the cause of the global financial crisis was the housing and debt bubbles that preceded the crash.

Bernanke is no savior, nor did he have any clues as the following video proves.



Please play that video, again, and again until you get it.

People are entitled to their opinions, but I am entitled to the "facts". The fact of the matter is the housing bubble was obvious, yet time and time again Bernanke did not see it coming, nor did he understand the severity when the crash did come.

As a self-proclaimed "student of the great depression", Bernanke gets an "F". He did not learn a damn thing. History will not be kind to the man.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Note: Some ATT users (not a fault of ATT) received timeouts on my "Wine Country Conference" link (see below). If you were one of them, please try again. The problem has been fixed.

Wine Country Conference

I am hosting an economic conference on April 5 in Sonoma, California. Proceeds go to the Les Turner ALS Foundation (Lou Gehrig's Disease).

Please see My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs for my association with the disease.

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Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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