Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Canada Unexpectedly Sheds 54,500 Jobs in March; Worst Job Loss in 4 Years; Canadian Dollar Tumbles Posted: 05 Apr 2013 12:50 PM PDT Our neighbor to the North also suffered from an unexpectedly weak jobs report today, the worst monthly job losses in more than four years. Canada shed 54,500 positions in March, more than wiping out the 50,700 jobs that were added in February, Statistics Canada said on Friday. Market operators had expected a modest gain of 8,500 jobs. It was the biggest monthly jobs loss since February 2009, when the economy shed 69,300 positions. The March unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent from 7.0 percent. "The employment numbers did seem to be defying gravity up until March and were not lining up with the underlying growth numbers," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. "We knew one of them had to give way and it looks as if employment has given way." Adding to the gloom were trade figures for February that showed Canada's deficit increased to C$1.02 billion on both lower exports and higher imports. Traders had expected a surplus of C$200 million. Canadian Dollar Tumbles Bloomberg reports Canadian Dollar Tumbles After Unexpected March Employment Loss The Canadian dollar fell in its biggest decline in nine months against its U.S. peer after the nation unexpectedly lost jobs last month by the most since the last recession four years ago. The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the C$1 coin, fell 0.6 percent to C$1.0183 at 2:09 p.m. in Toronto. Earlier, it fell 1.1 percent to C$1.0236 per U.S. dollar, the largest drop since June 28. One loonie buys 98.20 U.S. cents. I think we have seen the end of good jobs reports here and in Canada for quite some time. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Jobs +88,000, Unemployment Rate 7.6%, Household Survey Employment Drops by 206,000 Posted: 05 Apr 2013 07:36 AM PDT Initial Reaction The surge in employment fueled by part-time jobs and the Obamacare effect may finally be over. Although the establishment survey showed a gain of 88,000 jobs, the household survey, off which the unemployment rate is based, showed a loss of 206,000 jobs. The unemployment rate edged lower by .1% because a whopping 496,000 people dropped out of the labor force. Last month, voluntary part-time employment rose by a reported 446,000. It's plain to see that last month's numbers were a statistical aberration. This was a miserable jobs report from every angle. March BLS Jobs Report at a Glance Payrolls +88,000 - Establishment Survey US Employment -206,000 - Household Survey US Unemployment -290,000 - Household Survey Involuntary Part-Time Work -230,000 - Household Survey; Voluntary Part-Time Work -163,000 - Household Survey Baseline Unemployment Rate -.01 - Household Survey U-6 unemployment -.05 to 13.8% - Household Survey The Civilian Labor Force -496,000 - Household Survey Not in Labor Force +663,000 - Household Survey Participation Rate -.02 to 63.3 - Household Survey Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data. Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,069,000 Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,266,000 In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,686,000 to 11,742,000 (a drop of 944,000) Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 4,611,000 - a decline of 186,000 from last month's total of was 4,797,000 Percentage of long-term unemployment is 39.6%. It has been hovering near 40% for at least a year. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another. March 2013 Jobs Report Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) March 2013 Employment Report. Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in March (+88,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in professional and business services and in health care but declined in retail trade. Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted Month to Month Change by Type of Job Average weekly hours rose .1 to at 34.6 hours. A year ago average hours were 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings rose $0.01 to $23.83. In 2013, average hourly earnings are up $0.05. Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security. For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution? BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey. The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total. The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance. Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way. Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions. Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012 Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013 Birth-Death Notes Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small. For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again. Household Survey Data Decline in Labor Force Factors Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs People retire because they cannot find jobs People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 10%. Part Time Status (in Thousands) click on chart for sharper image There are 7,638,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 7,664,000. There has been no improvement in a year. This is a volatile series. Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment click on chart for sharper image Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation. The official unemployment rate is 7.6%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. U-6 is much higher at 13.8%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. Duration of Unemployment Long-term unemployment remains in a disaster zone with 39.6% of the unemployed in the 27 weeks or longer category. Grossly Distorted Statistics Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers. Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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