Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Beppe Grillo Supports "Referendum on the Euro Within a year"
• Discussion in Spain on Leaving the Euro; Euro Exit Manifest
• Greek Debt Unchanged Since 2010; EU to Give Greece Still More Time; More Time Is Useless
• Another Look at Bernanke's Employment Recovery in Chart Form

Beppe Grillo Supports "Referendum on the Euro Within a year" Posted: 24 May 2013 04:17 PM PDT Via google translate from Corriere Della Sera, Beppe Grillo is in favor of a "Referendum on the Euro Within a year" "Europe needs to be rethought. We consider just one year of information and then hold a referendum to say yes or no to the euro and yes or no to Europe. " Beppe Grillo to ride a strong theme of the last election campaign the 5 Star Movement. "Europe on the euro and the British teach us democracy. No party can claim the right to decide for 60 million people. " "I want to go to Europe and re-discuss a Plan B to be in five years, "added the leader M5S, explaining:" When we do, then we are ready for a referendum and we decide whether to stay in the euro or not." Sooner or later this sentiment is going to catch fire. And the sooner the better for Europe when it does. Also see Discussion in Spain on Leaving the Euro; Euro Exit Manifest. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Discussion in Spain on Leaving the Euro; Euro Exit Manifest Posted: 24 May 2013 11:07 AM PDT Some common sense discussion is taking place in Spain regarding the necessity of Spain exiting the eurozone. For example, please consider Opposition to the euro breaks: first manifesto to leave the single currency as translated from El Economista. The political opposition that Spain remains part of the euro begins to crystallize. And the tool to achieve that end-Spain output of the single currency is again signing a manifest public that, for the moment, has already been signed by around 1,000 professionals convinced "the risks of deterioration and degradation that there are the enormous social suffering caused by the persistence of adjustment policies, austerity and privatization of the public ". Among the signatories are former general coordinator of United Left (IU) Julio Anguita or economists Juan Francisco Martín Seco and Pedro Montes, Manuel Monereo addition, Manuel Muela and Carlos Martinez, president of Attac Spain, or exsindicalista Agustin Moreno. Written Signatories to the start for a first finding analysis: the level of unemployment is "catastrophic "the indebtedness of the Spanish economy to the outside is" unable to cope "and the evolution of public accounts leads inexorably to the" economic collapse of the state ". Specifically, they say, more than six million unemployed, more than 2.3 billion euros of gross liabilities from the outside and a public debt of almost a billion euros, growing and already close to 100% of GDP, "are data defining an unmanageable mess, endanger destroy coexistence and social rights. " "Spain Must Have a Plan to Exit the Euro" Also note an article on El Econimista Jose Carlos Diez: "Spain Must Have a Plan to Exit the Euro" Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist at Intermoney, feels Spain should not be the first country to leave but "should have a plan to do it." This was pointed out in a meeting he had with el Economista. Spain should never be forced out. We are a big country in Europe, and we must enforce our political weight, seeking alliances to solve the crisis. But if Portugal or Italy decide to leave the euro, we must have a plan to get out that day, "he answered a question from a reader. "I hope that there is intelligent life in Europe and that day may never come," he added. Euro Exit Manifest The talk has started. That is the first step. Inquiring minds may wish to read the Euro Exit Manifest mentioned in the first link.  Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Greek Debt Unchanged Since 2010; EU to Give Greece Still More Time; More Time Is Useless Posted: 24 May 2013 08:11 AM PDT Greece was supposed to get it's debt to GDP ratio to 100% by 2012, then 100% by 2013, then 110% by 2014. Now Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup finance ministers, says Greece May Get Still More Time to meet fiscal targets. And the alleged level of debt sustainability keeps rising all the while. The euro zone may give Greece more time to meet fiscal targets agreed under its international bailout, the chairman of the euro zone finance ministers said in an interview published today. "The Commission΄s approach regarding fiscal consolidation is more flexible, giving certain countries more time to meet their targets. I believe that this will be the case for Greece if needed," Jeroen Dijsselbloem told Kathimerini newspaper. Greece΄s European partners agreed last year to extend the maturities and reduce the interest on the nation΄s bailout funds to help cut its debt mountain to a more sustainable level of 124 percent of GDP in 2020, from an estimated 173 percent this year. Greek Debt Unchanged After Massive Bailouts and Haircuts Note that the sustainable level of debt is now 124% of GDP, ratcheted up numerous times in the past couple of years.. Keep Talking Greece has some rather interesting facts about Greek debt in its report 2 bailouts + 1 haircut = Greek public debt at €309.4 billion in 1Q 2013, as much as in 2010 Two bailout agreements, total aid of 240 billion euro,  and one bonds' 'haircut' later…. Greek public debt remains as high as it was in 2010 – the year in which Greece sought the 'rescue' by the International Monetary Fund. 2010: Public debt: 310.3 billion euro 2013: Public debt: 309.4 billion euro The public debt is almost the same, we are all still sitting on the same old boat. Just the economic situation of the average Greek is much worse: bankrupt households, unemployment at 27% and 64% among youth 15-24 years old, recession and even deflation. Oh, and a sharp rise in suicides and homeless. I hope nobody remembers Evangelos Venizelos, finance minister in March 2012, heralding after the Greek bond swap (53.5% haircut) "we got rid of 100 billion euro debt." More Time Is Useless By now it should be readily apparent the situation is totally and completely hopeless. Greece will not reduce debt to 124 percent of GDP by 2020 from an estimated 173 percent this year, unless of course Greece defaults. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Another Look at Bernanke's Employment Recovery in Chart Form Posted: 24 May 2013 12:38 AM PDT Reader Tim Wallace took note of Bernanke's testimony on jobs (see Bernanke's Semi-Annual Tap-Dance of Distortions, Half-truths, Lies, and Hypocrisy to U.S. Congress) and sent me the following chart. April Employment vs. April Employment in Previous Years click on chart for sharper image Tim writes ... Hello Mish Bernanke was touting the direction of employment using the familiar "7.5%" numbers and pointing to all the improvement. While granting that more people are working now than in 2010, we recognize that more people are working part time and less people are working overall than in 2008. This got me wondering how long it took to recover to pre-recession employment numbers in the past. Up until the recession of 1982, All drops in employment from one year to the next had fully recovered to new employment highs within 2-3 calendar years. In the recessions around 1982, 1991 and 2001, job recovery took about three calendar years. In our current malaise, we have been at this 5 years and employment is still 2.2 million people below the employment number in April 2008. Moreover, part-time employment is up about 2 million workers. Thus, full-time employment is 4 million below the 2008 number, 5 years ago. Tim Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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