marți, 16 iulie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Jewel Food Store Amazing Software Glitch; Purposeful Action or Programmer Stupidity?

Posted: 16 Jul 2013 10:48 PM PDT

Tuesday evening I purchased groceries at a local Jewel food store.

Hormel Cure 81 hams were allegedly on sale for $3.99 a pound. The sticker price said $5.99 a pound.

I asked cashier "Kim", the checkout clerk, and was told discounts were automatic, that I no longer needed to enter my phone number or present a card to get a the discount.

Kim notified me "the sale price was $3.99" and it was reflected on the receipt.

Well, it was, sort of.

Jewel Hormel Cure Ham Label



Please note the net weight of the ham at 3.61 pounds.

Next note the itemized Jewel receipt.



Supposedly I "saved" $10.84. That's quite the savings.

Please note "how" I save $10.84.

The weight on the sticker was 3.61 pounds (verified by me at home). The weight listed on the receipt was 5.42 pounds.

It appears to me that Jewel software assumed the price on the sticker was correct and then adjusted the weight of the product on the receipt to reflect the price on the label.

Is this crazy or what?

I called the Jewel store in question, they acknowledged the error, and will refund the difference.

OK, but what about potentially thousands of other customers who had the same problem and did not notice?

More importantly, what about the inane software program that changes the weight on the receipt to match the price on the label? Is this fraud?

I leave it to the reader to decide if this is purposeful action or programmer stupidity.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Former US Senator Gordon Humphrey Thanks Snowden for "Exposing Astonishing Violations of the US Constitution"; Email Exchange Between Snowden and Humphrey

Posted: 16 Jul 2013 12:43 PM PDT

A tip of the hat goes to former two-term GOP Senator Gordon Humphrey of New Hampshire who thanked Edward Snowden for exposing a "massive violation of the United States Constitution".

Humphrey served in the United States Senate for twelve years as a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, the Armed Services Committee and the Judiciary Committee.

Glenn Greenwald at The Guardian has the email exchange between Snowden and Humphrey and his own email exchange with Senator Gordon Humphrey as well.

Greenwald contacted Humphrey regarding the authenticity of the email exchange and received this reply from the former senator.
Mr. Greenwald,

Yes. It was I who sent the email message to Edward Snowden, thanking him for exposing astonishing violations of the US Constitution and encouraging him to persevere in the search for asylum.

To my knowledge, Mr. Snowden has disclosed only the existence of a program and not details that would place any person in harm's way. I regard him as a courageous whistle-blower.

I object to the monumentally disproportionate campaign being waged by the U.S. Government against Edward Snowden, while no effort is being made to identify, remove from office and bring to justice those officials who have abused power, seriously and repeatedly violating the Constitution of the United States and the rights of millions of unsuspecting citizens.

Americans concerned about the growing arrogance of our government and its increasingly menacing nature should be working to help Mr. Snowden find asylum. Former Members of Congress, especially, should step forward and speak out.

Regards,
Gordon Humphrey
Please click on the link above to see Humphrey's Email to Snowden and Snowden's reply to Humphrey.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Germany Election "Far From Over", Merkel Coalition in Trouble as Spotlight Shines on Snowden’s Revelations

Posted: 16 Jul 2013 11:12 AM PDT

A couple days ago Bloomberg reported Polls Indicate Merkel's Coalition Is Likely to Win Election.
CDU/CSU will get 40 percent of votes, coalition partner FDP 6.5 percent, according to a poll conducted by Institut fuer Demoskopie Allensbach on behalf of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper. The total of 46.5 percent compares to a combined 44 percent of the other parties moving into parliament, comprising the SPD that polled 25.5 percent, Greens with 12.5 percent and Die Linke 6 percent.

CDU/CSU will get 41 percent of votes, one percentage point less than a week earlier and FDP 5 percent, one percentage point more, according to an Emnid poll on behalf of the Bild am Sonntag newspaper. The combined 46 percent compares to 45 percent of the other parties moving into parliament, comprising SPD with 26 percent, Greens polling 12 percent and Die Linke 7 percent.
What About AfD?

Neither poll mentioned the anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD) as if it would not reach the 5% threshold for parliament.

I asked Reader Bernd from Germany (not Bernd Lucke, AfD party leader) his take on the Bloomberg poll. Bernd responded ...
Hello Mish,

Poll 1 by Allensbach Institut is made on behalf of CDU via Frankfurter Allgemeine – it has been my practice in the past years to disregard any poll coming from them. Allensbach are notoriously CDU friendly and notoriously wrong.

Poll 2 by Emnid on behalf of Bild Zeitung is equally shaky and Bild Zeitung is another CDU-friendly tabloid.

We will see lots of polls coming out of Germany in the next weeks but half the country is on vacation and people will say anything to get pollsters out of the way.

In my circles, I know of at least 5 people who claim they have lied to pollsters on purpose. I believe this is more common than one thinks.

I sense a shift going through the country. The population in Germany hates anything that has got to do with violation of data protection. As a single subject this topic outweighs any crisis of the EURO in Spain, Greece or else by a huge margin.

The facts that have become known to the German population via Mr. Snowden's revelations are a real sore point for the German electorate. Germany's voters feel that Mrs. Merkel's position on the issue is too soft and that she is hiding facts.

The German Government under Merkel is desperately trying to keep the lid on the fact, that they knew about PRISM and such other programs by UK and France – because the Allies have official rights to spy in Germany, dating back to agreements of the 1960s.

Suddenly one sees and hears more and more remarks about Madam Merkel's past and her obvious loyalty to the East German Government in the 1970s and 1980s.

The SPD and Mr. Steinbrück have decided to make data protection the main issue of the next ten weeks, leading up to the elections. It seems to me as if the Green Party is jumping on the bandwagon.

Unfortunately, AFD has not positioned itself for this topic and they may miss out if they don't take a strong stand quickly.

If indeed the data protection issue becomes more relevant in the next weeks, I predict a substantial rise of votes for FDP. They are currently the only party with a believable track record when it comes to individual rights and data protection.

However, it is still a long way to the election. In 2002 Schröder trailed behind badly ten weeks before elections, only to win by a small margin.

Best regards
Bernd
Election "Far From Over"

Inquiring minds are reading a Mish-modified translation of a Focus Deutschland article regarding a coalition shift from the wiretapping scandal.
Following the NSA scandal and Snowden affair, pressure grows on politics, and voters want answers.

As it currently stands, the election is far from decided: a black-yellow coalition(CDU/CSU + FDP) holds a slim lead over the red-green alliance(SPD + Green Party), but neither coalition has a majority.

In the latest poll, CDU/CSU loses a point compared to last week and would gather 38 percent of the vote. FDP would get five percent. So the black-yellow coalition would gather 43 percent.

Meanwhile, the SPD would get 26 percent of the vote with the Green party gathering 15 percent. This would put a Red-Green coalition at 41 percent.

AfD would gather only 3 percent of the vote and fail to make parliament.
Lots of Time Left

Bloomberg is way premature with its synopsis, even if AfD falters.

As in Italy with Beppe Grillo, I believe mainstream analysts and polls far underestimate the support for AfD.

Regardless, it's important to remember that even if CDU/CSU gathers the highest total of votes (which it most assuredly will do), it's coalitions that matter, not individuals.

The price to pay in any coalition might very well be the ouster of Merkel whether or not AfD hits the 5 percent threshold.

Confused about German politics? 

If so, please see Understanding German Politics for an explanation of the German political parties and what they stand for.

The explanations are from reader Bernd.

Wahl-O-Meter Update

Here is a current election snapshot from Wahl-O-Meter.



And there is lots of time left.

AfD needs to hop on the wiretapping issue with a fiery message. And if the party does that, it would easily make the 5 percent threshold, if not a 10 percent threshold.

In such a scenario, no existing coalition would come close to a 50% total, and Merkel would be put out to pasture.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Blank Checks, Inflation, Buyer's Remorse

Posted: 16 Jul 2013 01:01 AM PDT

The Nikkei is soaring, and along with the Japanese stock market, so are expectations of the policies espoused by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Will this be a case of buyer's remorse?

I think so, and so does Bloomberg writer William Pesek in Japan Prepares to Vote. Not That You Would Know.
With elections to the upper house of parliament on July 21, Japanese voters seem ready to hand Prime Minister Shinzo Abe one of the bigger blank checks in memory.

What's most noticeable, though, is the silence of the citizenry. Try finding the slightest hint that voters are fired up. If recent contests have been notable at all, it's for setting low-turnout records. This one could top them all.

Japan confronts a fast-aging population; the world's biggest public debt; a skyrocketing energy bill, and a pension time bomb. Abe has pledged vague but far-reaching reforms, including lowering trade barriers, empowering women, deregulating industry and possibly revising the pacifist constitution. There are questions about how many U.S. soldiers Japan should host, and whether loose monetary policy is creating a giant bubble.

Yet the Japanese are debating none of this. A victory for Abe's Liberal Democratic Party will be taken as vindication of policies that he's laid out only in the sketchiest terms.

To some degree, the Japanese are apathetic because they can be. Even after almost 20 years of deflation, Japanese society hasn't unraveled into widespread homelessness, crime and deprivation. Also, Abe's decisiveness is scoring points with the electorate. Japan is on its 16th prime minister since its asset bubble burst around 1990 and not since, or long before, Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006) has it had a truly audacious leader pledging to shake up the status quo.

It's important, though, that reforms move Japan forward in accordance with the aspirations of its people. It's up to voters and opposition politicians to tell leaders what those goals are and hold them accountable. By giving Abe such carte blanche, Japanese may be setting themselves up for buyer's remorse.
Apathy Sets In

Apathy has clearly set in for the Japanese. Is there a lesson? 

I Think so, and it should be easy to spot.

The average Japanese citizen is quite comfortable with deflation and falling prices. Only the financial elite and some corporations are upset about the matter.

Yet here we are. The next election in Japan will likely give Prime Minister Shinzo Abe one of the bigger blank checks ever, simply because the Nikkei stock index has soared.

Bloomberg writer William Pesek says "Japanese may be setting themselves up for buyer's remorse."

Change "may be" to "will be" and Pesek is 100% accurate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:01

Niciun comentariu:

Trimiteți un comentariu

Abonați-vă la: Postare comentarii (Atom)