Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• "If Americans Could Read Classified Documents They'd Be Even More Against Syrian War"
• US Economic Activity Poised to Soar?
• Hate Your Commute Now? It's Going to Get Worse

"If Americans Could Read Classified Documents They'd Be Even More Against Syrian War" Posted: 08 Sep 2013 08:05 PM PDT Here's a quartet of interesting tweets from House of Representative member Justin Amash Republican from Michigan. Tweet #1: If Americans could read classified docs, they'd be even more against Syria action. Obama admn's public statements are misleading at best. Tweet #2: Attended another classified briefing on Syria & reviewed add'l materials. Now more skeptical than ever. Can't believe Pres is pushing war. Tweet #3: Asked Obama admn officials to correct admn's public statements that are inconsistent w/ info presented at briefings. Public must have facts. Tweet #4: If you're voting yes on military action in Syria, might as well start cleaning out your office. Unprecedented level of public opposition. Amash Amendment Amash sponsored an amendment to limit data gathering by the NSA. The Amash-Conyers amendment ends NSA's blanket collection of Americans' telephone records.  It does this by requiring the FISA court under Sec. 215 to order the production of records that pertain only to a person under investigation. The amendment has three important practical effects.  First, it ends the mass surveillance of Americans.  The government no longer is authorized under Sec. 215 to hold a pool of metadata on every phone call of every American.  Second, the amendment permits the government to continue to acquire business records and other "tangible things" that are actually related to an authorized counterterrorism investigation.  The government still has access to this tool under the amendment, but it's forced to comply with the intent of Congress when it passed Sec. 215.  Third, the amendment imposes more robust judicial oversight of NSA's surveillance.  The FISA court will be involved every time NSA searches Americans' records, and the court will have a substantive, statutory standard to apply to make sure the NSA does not violate Americans' civil liberties. What steps would the government take to collect records if the Amash-Conyers amendment were enacted?  The government would have to provide facts to the FISA court to show that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the records sought (1) are relevant to an appropriately authorized national security investigation and (2) pertain to the person (including any group or corporation) under investigation. Unfortunately the Justin Amash Amendment To Stop NSA Data Collection Voted Down In House The House of Representatives on Wednesday evening narrowly defeated an amendment from Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) meant to halt the National Security Agency's bulk collection of phone record data. "We're here today for a very simple reason: to defend the Fourth Amendment, to defend the privacy of each and every American," Amash said as he introduced his measure. Lawmakers' votes, he said, would answer one simple question, "Do we oppose the suspicionless collection of every American's phone records?" On Wednesday, at least, the answer was no. The House voted 217-205 to defeat the amendment after intense last-minute lobbying from the White House and the NSA. Democrats voted for the amendment by a 111-to-83 margin. Republicans, meanwhile, split 134 to 93 against it. Although Amash's amendment was defeated, civil liberties advocates found something to cheer in the closeness of the vote. Just two years ago, the House voted by a comfortable 250-153 margin to reauthorize the Patriot Act, which the administration uses to justify its phone metadata collection. On Wednesday, by contrast, a swing of just seven votes would have put Amash's amendment over the top. Amash is a true republican constitutionalist-hero as opposed to fake-patriots who sided with President Obama, such as majority leader John Boehner and Nancy Pelosi. In all 134 Republicans should be absolutely ashamed of themselves as noted in the Roll Call. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

US Economic Activity Poised to Soar? Posted: 08 Sep 2013 02:21 PM PDT Is economic activity in the US about head to the next level higher? If you think so, please consider a chart from my friend "BC": Weekly real year-over-year growth of bank lending per capita and real final sales per capita. Growth in Bank Lending Per Capita (Black), Real Final Sales Per Capita (Blue) My friend BC writes (and I concur) "It seems rather unlikely that private economic activity is poised to accelerate under these conditions." But what about "public" activity such as a war with Syria? If you are looking for another reason besides energy Obama wants a war with Syria, there you have it. In regards to energy, please see ... The Dick Cheney-Syria Oil Connection Separating Politics and War From Oil and the Economy  Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Hate Your Commute Now? It's Going to Get Worse Posted: 08 Sep 2013 11:07 AM PDT Liz and I traveled this past Labor Day weekend. We drove from Crystal Lake, Illinois to a golf resort in Manistee, Michigan. Traffic was bad in the Chicago area as expected, but exceptionally slow traffic continued all the way through Indiana, and even into Michigan, all along I-94 until we reached Michigan 31. M-31 breaks off from I-94 roughly at St. Joseph. It was several hours of driving hell starting out, and continued late into the evening, near midnight. I bring this up because I stumbled on a MarketWatch article Hate your commute now? Just wait 5 years Here is slide number 5 of 13. Indianapolis to Chicago, I-65 Labor Day traffic on Interstate 65 from Indianapolis to Chicago is 49% higher than average at its peak. Unless a major transportation project is undertaken in the next five years, commuters will experience this level of congestion on the average day by the year 2033. I-65 intersects I-94 near Gary Indiana. I-80 and I-90 merge in close by. It is one hell of a congestion. My experience previously was things start getting better near the Indiana-Illinois border. That didn't happen this Labor Day trip. Obviously states are strapped for cash, but there were three or four sections of highway under repair in Indiana and a couple more in Michigan. One of the problems is prevailing wage laws such as Davis-Bacon drive up .cost of repairs. Unions and prevailing wage laws massively drive up construction costs. Even FDR was against the notion of public unions. Davis-Bacon Background I have discussed Davis-Bacon on many occasions. Inquiring minds interested in a background on the original purpose of the act should read My Thoughts on the Davis-Bacon Act. "... while the sponsors and supporters of the Act also intended it to disadvantage immigrant workers of other races, these thinly veiled references make it clear that the Act was primarily intended to discriminate against blacks." The Davis-Bacon Act as amended, requires that each contract over $2,000 to which the United States or the District of Columbia is a party for the construction, alteration, or repair of public buildings or public works shall contain a clause setting forth the minimum wages to be paid to various classes of laborers and mechanics employed under the contract. Under the provisions of the Act, contractors or their subcontractors are to pay workers employed directly upon the site of the work no less than the locally prevailing wages and fringe benefits paid on projects of a similar character. The Davis-Bacon Act directs the Secretary of Labor to determine such local prevailing wage rates. There are 117 classifications of jobs for which some set of bureaucrats must determine "prevailing wages".  Here is a partial list: ASBE = International Association of Heat and Frost Insulators and Asbestos Workers BOIL = International Brotherhood of Boiler Makers, Iron Shipbuilders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers BRXX = International Union of Bricklayers, and Allied Craftsmen (bricklayers, cement masons, stone masons, tile, marble and terrazzo workers) CARP = United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America ELEC = International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (electricians, communication systems installers, and other low voltage specialty workers) ELEV = International Union of Elevator Constructors ENGI = International Union of Operating Engineers (operators of various types of power equipment) IRON = International Association of Bridge, Structural and Ornamental Iron Workers LABO = Laborers' International Union of North America PAIN = International Brotherhood of Painters and Allied Trades (painters, drywall finishers, glaziers, soft floor layers) PLUM = Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association of the United States and Canada PLAS = United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry of the United States and Canada ROOF = United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers SHEE = Sheet Metal Workers International Association TEAM = International Brotherhood of Teamsters Even FDR Understood the Problem Public unions get into bed with management and politicians and work out sweet deals for themselves at taxpayer expense. No one looks out for the taxpayer. Even FDR understood the problem. Message From FDR Inquiring minds are reading snips from a Letter from FDR Regarding Collective Bargaining of Public Unions written August 16, 1937. All Government employees should realize that the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service. It has its distinct and insurmountable limitations when applied to public personnel management. The very nature and purposes of Government make it impossible for administrative officials to represent fully or to bind the employer in mutual discussions with Government employee organizations. Particularly, I want to emphasize my conviction that militant tactics have no place in the functions of any organization of Government employees. A strike of public employees manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to prevent or obstruct the operations of Government until their demands are satisfied. Such action, looking toward the paralysis of Government by those who have sworn to support it, is unthinkable and intolerable. Time to Scrap Davis-Bacon, End Public Union Collective Bargaining Before any project can be economically viable, labor costs must be addressed, and that is exactly why we need to scrap Davis-Bacon and all prevailing wage laws. We also need to eliminate collective bargaining of public unions. Unless and until we do that, we will dramatically overpay for infrastructure projects and taxpayers will pay through the nose for them. Government should strive to provide the most services at the least cost. Public unions strive to provide the fewest services at the most cost. Is it any wonder cities and states are broke? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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