marți, 1 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


DNC is Broke: Good News or Bad?

Posted: 01 Oct 2013 05:37 PM PDT

News is in the eyes of the beholder. Here's the news: the DNC is Nearly Broke.

Is that good news or bad news?

Republicans will view the report as good news, democrats as bad news. I am actually an independent, but one who supports Rand Paul for president.

I certainly do not want to see either Biden or Hillary be the next president. Yet, the next election is so far off, and the current focus is on Obamacare and the budget (and on those issues I side with the Republicans).

Of course, one needs to consider fundraising for the mid-term elections.

All things considered (for me), the report is a small bit good news. Here are a few details.
There's another budget crisis in Washington, and it's unfolding inside the Democratic party. The Democratic National Committee remains so deeply in the hole from spending in the last election that it is struggling to pay its own vendors.

It is a highly unusual state of affairs for a national party -- especially one that can deploy the President as its fundraiser-in-chief -- and it speaks to the quiet but serious organizational problems the party has yet to address since the last election, obscured in part by the much messier spectacle of GOP infighting.

The Democrats' numbers speak for themselves: Through August, 10 months after helping President Obama secure a second term, the DNC owed its various creditors a total of $18.1 million, compared to the $12.5 million cash cushion the Republican National Committee is holding.

Several executives at firms that contract to provide services to the party -- speaking anonymously to avoid antagonizing what remains an important if troubled client -- describe an organization playing for time as they raise alarms about past-due bills falling further behind. And senior strategists close to the DNC say they worry the organization appears to have no road map back to solvency. "They really thought they could get this money raised by the summer," one said, "but the fact is, from talking to people over there, they have no real plan for how to solve this."

DNC national press secretary Michael Czin says the committee is working with vendors on a case-by-case basis to pay down their tabs. And filings show the organization over the last five months has made $4.5 million in payments to the Amalgamated Bank and appears to be hewing to a $1 million-per-month installment schedule now. "While we work to retire our debt, we're not taking our foot off the pedal and are making the investments that will help ensure that Democrats are successful in 2014, 2016, and beyond," Czin said. He pointed to ongoing work by the DNC's National Finance Committee, which met over the weekend in Colorado to discuss fundraising strategy.

That the DNC has been allowed to drift so much is in part a function of the calendar. But with the 2014 midterms coming into view, expect the party's Congressional leadership to start applying more pressure on the White House to get involved. Without sustained help from the President, the committee will not be in a position to provide material support in that campaign. Mustering that presidential muscle will only get tougher as Obama's second term wears on, once his attention turns to legacy projects like fundraising for his library, and big donors puzzle over whether the committee becomes a stalking-horse for a presidential bid by Hillary Clinton -- or somebody else.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Your New iPhone Can Cause "Cyber-Sickness", iNausea, Dizziness, Headaches, Literally

Posted: 01 Oct 2013 12:00 PM PDT

Following the release of Apple's iOS7, users complained of dizziness, nausea, and headaches. Initially, the complaints were dismissed, but closer scrutiny reveals the complaints are valid.

Please consider the Extreme Tech report on iOS 7 nausea and cybersickness: What causes it, and why it's a sign of things to come.
It seems that Apple's new iOS 7 is so advanced that it's actually causing cybersickness — nausea caused by the combination of a high-resolution screen, the parallax effect on the Home screen, and the zooming in and out of apps.

Some victims say that using iOS 7 is like trying to read in a car, causing the same associated symptoms: dizziness, headaches, and even that nasty feeling of needing to vomit. Medical doctors and psychologists say that cybersickness is becoming more prevalent as frame rates and display resolutions increase. The iOS 7 nausea can be partially mitigated by changing some settings, which we'll discuss below, but with downgrading to iOS 6 now disabled Apple has left many customers high and dry.

There has to be a way to turn this off," wrote one iOS 7 user on the Apple Support site. "The zoom animations everywhere on the new iOS 7 are literally making me nauseous and giving me a headache. It's exactly how I used to get car sick if I tried to read in the car," wrote another.

Just like motion sickness, cybersickness is caused by disagreement between your eyes and the movement perceived by your balance system (the vestibular system in your inner ear). Historically, cybersickness is most commonly associated with huge IMAX cinema screens or 3D cinema — where your brain thinks you're moving but you're not — but it can also apply to smaller displays as well, such as the iPhone or iPad.

According to medical doctors and psychologists who have studied cybersickness, the iPhone and iPad, with iOS 7, have three features that result in the feeling of nausea. The parallax effect, where the icons on your Home screen appear to move independently of the wallpaper, can cause some 2D/3D disorientation. The zoom effect when you open, close, or switch apps, can make your brain think that you're moving — but your vestibular system disagrees. And to top it all off, the high resolution and high frame rate of the iPhone, iPad, and iOS 7 can trick your brain into thinking that the Retina display is a slice of real world, rather than a digital display, exacerbating the previous effects. The cybersickness is reportedly even worse on the iPad, as the screen is larger and covers more of your field of view — but it probably depends on how close you hold your phone/tablet.

How to prevent iOS 7 nausea

As it stands, the effects of iOS 7-induced nausea — iNausea, if you will — can only be partially mitigated by heading into your iDevice's Settings > General > Accessibility, and then enabling Reduce Motion. This disables the Home screen parallax effect, but there's currently no way to turn off the zoom effect when you open, close, or switch apps. I would not be surprised if Apple adds the ability to remove the zoom animation in a future version of iOS 7, however.

Just like motion sickness, another solution to iSickness is just to look away from the screen and get your bearings. If there's a visible horizon, look at it for a few moments. The nausea is caused by your brain being confused by the inputs from your eyes and ears, and so fixing the issue is usually as simple as looking away until your brain regains its balance.
Users may wish to consider Extreme Tech's report Should you upgrade to iOS 7?

Finally, those wishing to see complaints of iNausea may wish to read Apple Support Communities
Any way to turn off iOS 7 navigation animations?

I have a different suggestion: stop using the damn phone so much.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

It's a Wonderful Crisis; Fed's Forward Guidance Policy in Comic Form

Posted: 01 Oct 2013 11:26 AM PDT

Here is an amusing as well as accurate assessment of the Fed's forward guidance policy in comic form, courtesy of The Telegraph and Steen Jakobsen, chief economist of Saxo Bank, who sent me the link.



Inquiring minds and comic addicts may appreciate more from Alex, including a 15 part series It's a Wonderful Crisis

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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