| Oregon Obamacare Success Rate: 0 for 18,000 Applications; Musical Tribute: Just My Imagination Posted: 18 Nov 2013 07:38 PM PST If you thought Obamacare success rate in the state of Washington was bad as it gets, I suggest you take a look at Oregon. Portland Local News reports 18,000 applications, 0 enrolled. With all the problems facing the rollout of President Barack Obama's health care overhaul, nowhere is the situation worse or more surprising than in Oregon, a progressive state that has enthusiastically embraced the federal law but has so far failed to enroll a single person in coverage through the state's insurance exchange.
Despite grand ambitions, an early start, millions of dollars from the federal government and a tech-savvy population, Oregon's online enrollment system still isn't ready more than a month after it was supposed to go live. The state has resorted to hiring or reassigning 400 people to process insurance applications by hand.
The state has received about 18,000 paper applications, at 19 pages each, and is scrambling to manually file and clear them. State officials have not been able to say when they expect the online system to launch, nor have they established a deadline to submit paper applications in order for coverage to begin Jan. 1.
Oregon does have one big success to brag about. The state has enrolled 70,000 people in Medicaid, reducing the ranks of the uninsured by more than 10 percent. The large number of Medicaid enrollments came in large part thanks to a "fast-track" enrollment process approved by the Obama administration. Using income data already on file, the state mailed a simple seven-question Medicaid enrollment form to people in the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program who qualify for health coverage under the federal health law's expansion of Medicaid.
Pressure is growing on exchange officials to fix their problems. U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, a moderate Democrat who took heat after voting for the health care law, released a sharply worded statement on Friday demanding that the exchange and its main contractor, Oracle, make it work.
"The implementation of Oregon's health insurance marketplace has been abysmal," Schrader said. "The current situation is completely unacceptable, and I expect much more from a state with a reputation for being an innovator in the field of health care." Success Builds Upon SuccessNotice how the article claims that Oregon has enrolled 70,000 more people in free Medicaid services. Supposedly that constitutes "success". Recall that the state of Washington was bragging about a 5% conversion rate. For details, please see 57,730 Washington State Obamacare Sign-Ups, 51,368 of Them for Medicaid; Obamashock Theory and PracticeWell, Portand can brag about a 0% conversion rate. Take that Washington! And like Washington, success is where you find it (100% imaginary). As noted previously ... Obamashock! Theory and PracticeRecall that Obamacare is supposed to work by getting young adults to overpay. That was the general idea, in theory. But what if youth refuse to pay, or only sign up for free services? More Obamashock! success is on the way (including tax hikes and insurance rate hikes to pay for the alleged success). Just My ImaginationI offer this musical tribute to those who claim Obamacare is a success. Link if video does not play: Just My ImaginationMike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Emerging Market "Fragile Five" Currency Crisis Coming Up; Saxo Bank on Property and Equity Bubbles in Asia and Emerging Markets Posted: 18 Nov 2013 11:55 AM PST Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen had some interesting comments via email today on property bubbles in India, China, and emerging markets. Steen writes .... We are close to big bubbles and discontinued pricing in the market (with less and less real liquidity). In 2014 there will be taken a lot of bad MACRO decisions on:
- Inequality
- Deflation
- Bubbles
- Lack of growth
Conclusions
I am just back from Asia and I had my worst fears confirmed. Here are my quick-and-dirty conclusions:
- USD vs. Fragile Five (Indonesia, India, South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil) likely to be up 20% in 2014. The emerging market crisis is coming back, for real this time.
- India will be under IMF supervision post their election in May, which is turning extremely nasty. (Check the opposition candidates program!)
- Domino effect? 2014 could the year where "elections matters" – (EU in May, India in May, etc.)
- Asia realizes that lower "quality growth is needed" - meaning 200 basis points overall lower growth in exchange for less "rentier Foreign Direct Investment models)
- Asia contribution to global growth will be 100-150 bps lower, reducing global growth by 50-75 bps.
- Housing is in major bubble - I did not meet a single person who did not want to increase housing investment if prices fell 10%. Housing is up 100% and they want to buy a 90% price rise!
- The day Fed does tapering, the housing market is at risk for 40%-50% correction
- Asia direct market remains the only segment still expanding US dollar net funding (with increased capital dependency on the FED). US dollar dependence is increasing not falling.
- China's plenum real objective is overlooked: Policy uniformity - which never comes with real reforms and progress. China will not change fundamentally, but consolidate its Communist model.
The good news?
Volatility is certain to return.
Tapering is not the real risk. Look to India, Indonesia and Brazil as the canaries in the coal mine. Current account numbers cannot be easily managed. Lower growth and weaker currency is the only way to reduce short-term pressure. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| 57,730 Washington State Obamacare Sign-Ups, 51,368 of Them for Medicaid; Obamashock Theory and Practice Posted: 18 Nov 2013 09:23 AM PST It is quite amazing as to what state and federal officials tout as Obamacare "success" stories. For example, in the state of Washington, of the 57,730 who have signed up, a whopping 51,368 were for "free" Medicaid services. Given that Medicaid is jointly funded by the state and federal government, this is bound to put a hole in the state budget. Nonetheless, state officials are pleased with the result as noted by the Peninsula Daily News. Nearly 1,400 early birds on the North Olympic Peninsula signed up for health insurance on Washington's health care exchange in October, according to data released by the state Friday.
In the first month after health care reform launched Oct. 1, a combined 1,390 in Clallam and Jefferson counties completed new insurance sign-ups through Washington Healthplanfinder.
Most of those sign-ups were for the free insurance offered for low-income individuals through Medicaid.
Statewide, 57,730 insurance sign-ups were completed. Of those, 51,368 signed up for Medicaid.
State officials predict those numbers will spike, with 72,136 applications somewhere in the process and 21,671 who have chosen a plan but still need to pay for it.
"Those numbers are growing every day," Washington Health Benefit Exchange spokesman Michael Marchand told The Associated Press.
The Washington Health Benefit Exchange said nearly 500,000 individuals visited www.Wahealthplanfinder.org in October. Of those, more than 150,000 are fully enrolled, completed an application that is awaiting payment or started an application.
Statewide, looking at just the private insurance enrollments, 37 percent were in the 55-64 age group, nearly 20 percent were in the 45-54 age group, 19 percent came from the 35-44 age group, nearly 18 percent came from the 26-34 group, and about 5 percent came from the 18-25 group.
The numbers were spread out more evenly among Medicaid enrollments, with the biggest segments for free insurance in the younger-than-18 and 26-34 groups.
"Young adults are a critical target for us, and it is great to see that 6,000 young adults between the ages of 18 and 25 have signed up for health coverage in just the first month," Marchand said.
Most of those young adults will get free insurance through Medicaid. Only 328 in that age range signed up for private policies. Obamashock! Theory and PracticeRecall that Obamacare is supposed to work by getting young adults to overpay. That was the general idea, in theory. But what if youth refuse to pay, or only sign up for free services? In practice, only 328 out of 6,000 young adults in the 18-25 age group are actually paying anything. Somehow 5.47% constitutes a success. And the numbers are "growing everyday". More Obamashock! success is on the way (including tax hikes and insurance rate hikes to pay for the alleged success). Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| "Gold is an Asset the Girl Carries" Posted: 17 Nov 2013 11:02 PM PST In defiance of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's effort to suppress gold demand via capital controls and import duties, India's tradition of gold buying cannot be stopped. Culture wins over political dictate. Please consider Gold-Laden Brides in India Defying Singh as Culture Wins by Bloomberg writer Swansy Afonso. As the sound of traditional drums, trumpets and cymbals ushers Amrita Mannil into the wedding hall, she's adorned by four finely crafted necklaces, rings, 16 bangles, a glistening belt, dangling chandelier earrings and a stone-encrusted head piece to match the silk borders of her dress. She's wearing about 800 grams (1.8 pounds) of gold.
Amid the music and the chanted prayers, a gold chain is placed around her neck as the 25-year-old advertising executive marries Vimal Mohan in a traditional Hindu ceremony attended by 500 friends and relatives in Kozhikode, about 180 kilometers (112 miles) from the city of Kochi in Kerala.
"Gold is an asset the girl carries," 28-year-old Namitha Shyam, the bride's older sister, said after last month's ceremony. "The values, status and wealth of the family is represented by the gold the girl wears as she gets married. The more gold you wear, the more pride you have in your family."
the resilience of Indian demand, and the fact the nation imports almost all the bullion it uses, poses a challenge for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, as he seeks to trim a record current-account deficit and stem the rupee's 15 percent slide this year.
Wedding Ritual
Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram responded by raising import taxes three times this year to curb consumption which represented about 20 percent of world demand in 2012.
Indians purchase gold at festivals and for marriages as part of the bridal trousseau and as gifts in the form of jewelry. Demand will be 900 to 1,000 metric tons this year, from 864.2 tons in 2012, the World Gold Council says.
'Only Gold'
Mannil's family spent more than six hours selecting the chains and necklaces Amrita wore at the wedding. An Indian bride without gold "is like rice without salt: bland," said Sheela Ramesh, her mother, while fiddling with her own Thali, or gold wedding locket.
"When you have social compulsions, there are many ways of overcoming restrictions," said Babu as he sat in his house a day before the wedding. "Irrespective of what the government does, Indians will find a way to get around this because every wedding has to have gold." Attitudes RulePolitical desires, even with capital controls and import restrictions, cannot change trends in attitudes. And given the plunge in the rupee, the desire to hold gold is more likely to rise than not as a result of capital controls. India Gold Premium Hits Record 21.6% Here is a chart I posted last Thursday courtesy of Nick at Sharelynx Gold regarding the premium one has to pay to buy gold in India..  click on chart for sharper imageWith India's 10% gold import duty on top of other capital controls, the price one has to pay for gold in India has reached a record spread of 21.6% vs. what one has to pay in countries where there are no such controls or import duties. If there was little demand for gold in India, the premium would be much smaller. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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