| Chris Christie Wins Reelection in Landslide; Election Exit Poll Statistics; Reflections on Christie's Win Posted: 05 Nov 2013 06:36 PM PST The New York Times reports Chris Christie Re-elected Governor of New Jersey. Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey won re-election by a crushing margin on Tuesday, a victory that vaulted him to the front ranks of Republican presidential contenders and made him his party's foremost proponent of pragmatism over ideology.
In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 700,000, Mr. Christie won decisively, making impressive inroads among younger voters, blacks, Hispanics and women — groups that Republicans nationally have struggled to attract.
The governor prevailed, according to exit polls, despite holding positions contrary to those of many New Jersey voters on many issues, including same-sex marriage, abortion rights and the minimum wage, and despite an economic recovery that has trailed the rest of the country. But he attracted a broad coalition by campaigning as a decisive, even swaggering, leader who could reach across the aisle to solve problems, unlike the bickering politicians of Washington.
Republicans panicked by the surge in activist support for the rabble-rousing Tea Party wing represented by Senators Ted Cruz and Rand Paul were cheered by Mr. Christie's success, saying they hope the party will learn not only from the size of Mr. Christie's margin over Barbara Buono, a Democratic state senator, but also from the makeup of his support.
"We'll be led back by our governors, and Chris Christie is now at the forefront of that resurgence," said Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee. "He's proved that a conservative Republican can get votes from Hispanics and African-Americans, that a pro-life governor can get votes from women. This means that those voters are available to us, that we're not shut out demographically or geographically — that it's worth the effort."
His national profile will only increase later this month as he takes over as head of the Republican Governors Association. That position gives him sway over which state races the party chooses to spend money on, allowing him to rack up favors with other Republican politicians and create relationships with local leaders in key presidential states.
On Tuesday morning, well before polls closed on his re-election, Mr. Christie said he would be appearing frequently in "places like Ohio and Michigan and Florida," all states with incumbent Republican governors up for re-election next year, and he offered that he was also willing to help Republican incumbents in Iowa and South Carolina, states that appear early on the presidential campaign calendar.
Democrats in New Jersey who supported his re-election would not go so far as to say they would support him for president. Still, even they praised his potential for his party.
"For the sake of the nation, somebody needs to rebuke the crazies," said former Gov. Jim McGreevey, a Democrat who now works with prisoner re-entry and praises Mr. Christie's commitment to rehabilitation programs. "This is the party of Lincoln, of Eisenhower, this is one of the great political parties in the history of democracy. What Christie has done speaks to the notion that Republicans can win if there is an adherence to principle that is guided by a healthy pragmatism." Exit Polls The NYT has some interesting exit polls. I put them in table form. | Gender | Chris Christie | | Barbara Buono | |
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| Share of vote | Change from 2009 | Share of vote | Change from 2009 | | Male 46% of voters | 61% | +8 pct. pts. | 37% | -3 pct. pts. | | Female 54% | 55% | +10 pct. pts. | 43% | -7 pct. pts. | | Race and Ethnicity | Chris Christie | | Barbara Buono | |
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| Share of vote | Change from 2009 | Share of vote | Change from 2009 | | White 72% of voters | 68% | +9 pct. pts. | 31% | -3 pct. pts. | | Black 15% | 20% | +11 pct. pts. | 79% | -9 pct. pts. | | Hispanic 9% | 48% | +16 pct. pts. | 48% | -17 pct. pts. | | Asian 3% | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | | Age | Chris Christie | | Barbara Buono | |
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| Share of vote | Change from 2009 | Share of vote | Change from 2009 | | 18-29 10% of voters | 47% | +11 pct. pts. | 53% | -4 pct. pts. | | 30-44 21% | 52% | +2 pct. pts. | 46% | +2 pct. pts. | | 45-64 46% | 60% | +12 pct. pts. | 38% | -8 pct. pts. | | 65+ 23% | 64% | +9 pct. pts. | 35% | -5 pct. pts. | | Education | Chris Christie | | Barbara Buono | |
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| Share of vote | Change from 2009 | Share of vote | Change from 2009 | | No H.S. diploma 3% of voters | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | | High school grad 21% | 62% | +14 pct. pts. | 37% | -9 pct. pts. | | Some college 24% | 61% | +12 pct. pts. | 37% | -7 pct. pts. | | College 29% | 61% | +7 pct. pts. | 37% | -2 pct. pts. | | Postgrad 24% | 48% | +4 pct. pts. | 50% | 0 pct. pts. | | Religion | Chris Christie | | Barbara Buono | |
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| Share of vote | Change from 2009 | Share of vote | Change from 2009 | | Protestant 34% of voters | 59% | N.A. | 40% | N.A. | | Catholic 42% | 72% | N.A. | 27% | N.A. | | Jewish 5% | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | | All other 9% | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | | Party | Chris Christie | | Barbara Buono | |
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| Share of vote | Change from 2009 | Share of vote | Change from 2009 | | Democrat 42% of voters | 31% | +23 pct. pts. | 67% | -19 pct. pts. | | Republican 27% | 92% | +1 pct. pts. | 7% | +1 pct. pts. | | Independent or something else 31% | 64% | +4 pct. pts. | 33% | +3 pct. pts. | | Income | Chris Christie | | Barbara Buono | |
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| Share of vote | Change from 2009 | Share of vote | Change from 2009 | | Under $50,000 28% of voters | 51% | +11 pct. pts. | 46% | -9 pct. pts. | | $50,000-$99,999 33% | 57% | +11 pct. pts. | 41% | -6 pct. pts. | | $100,000 or more 39% | 62% | +7 pct. pts. | 36% | -4 pct. pts. | | Ideology | Chris Christie | | Barbara Buono | |
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| Share of vote | Change from 2009 | Share of vote | Change from 2009 | | Liberal 26% of voters | 29% | +20 pct. pts. | 68% | -15 pct. pts. | | Moderate 49% | 60% | +12 pct. pts. | 39% | -6 pct. pts. | | Conservative 25% | 85% | +3 pct. pts. | 14% | -1 pct. pts. | | Sex, Race and Ethnicity | Chris Christie | | Barbara Buono | |
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| Share of vote | Change from 2009 | Share of vote | Change from 2009 | | White men 34% | 69% | +6 pct. pts. | 29% | 0 pct. pts. | | White women 38% | 67% | +11 pct. pts. | 32% | -6 pct. pts. | | Black men 6% | 23% | +12 pct. pts. | 77% | -8 pct. pts. | | Black women 9% | 18% | +11 pct. pts. | 80% | -10 pct. pts. | | Hispanic men 4% | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | | Hispanic women 5% | 42% | +14 pct. pts. | 54% | -16 pct. pts. | | All other races 4% | 47% | N.A. | 46% | N.A. | Those exit poll results are from 7:57 p.m. E.S.T. Please check back in with the New York Times for updated returns. Reflections on Christie's Win Without a doubt Christie is now a national frontrunner for the 2016 election. Is that a good thing? Here is my answer in context. Readers know I preferred Christie over Mitt Romney in 2012. It was a case of the unknown vs. the known. Romney wanted a war with Iran and a trade war with China. That coupled with his stance on abortion made him unelectable. Why? Independents would not and did not vote for him. Where Christie stands on unions is known and welcome. However, we still do not know much else about Christie. Where does he stand on war-mongering, military spending in general, security, Obamacare, the NSA, the Fed, and trade policy? Those are all unknowns. But we do know his strong right to life message is not going to play well with most pro-choice independents, including this one. Republicans really need to throw that issue into the trashcan where it belongs. It can (and did) contribute to national election defeats. Here's the deal. Voters, in general, can live with some restrictions on abortion. A huge majority cannot accept the viewpoint that abortion should be totally outlawed. Republicans would be smart to adopt a middle of the road approach, as opposed to the religious-wrong approach of overturning Rove vs. Wade. Similarly (right, wrong, or otherwise), the majority of Americans are in favor of "some" gun control measures. I can debate this form either side. But debate is pointless. The simple fact of the matter is that Republicans do not do themselves any favors by nominating extreme candidates on these issues. In contrast to Christie, we know where Rand Paul stands on all of those issues. And while I do not agree with Paul on everything, this time I will take the known (Rand Paul) as opposed to the unknown (Chris Christie). Given they seem to agree on my one key dispute with Paul, my position is highly unlikely to change. Still, Republicans can do far worse than Christie. Mitt Romney was a complete disaster. Hopefully the Republican leadership learned a lesson. If they didn't, and if Republicans nominate another extreme right basket-case, Republicans can expect to lose the election to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Don't blame me, I am only the messenger. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| In Praise of Pronounced Unhappiness Posted: 05 Nov 2013 12:28 PM PST Today, I sing in glorious praise of unhappiness. Lest you think I lost my mind, first consider an Op-Ed in The Hill by life-long friend David Wise. He writes on Ending the Budget Wars. For the second time in two years the U.S. has stepped back from the precipice of default.
In January, absent agreement to the contrary, a second sequestration will go in effect and on February 7, 2014 the nation would face yet another debt ceiling crisis. The inability of the so-called supercommittee to reach a compromise when given a similar task in 2011 is enough reason for pessimism.
A long-term solution requires that no one come into the talks with preconditions and that everything be on the table. One sign that a successful accord has been reached is that no one walk away from the table completely happy. It is necessary. The time has come. Common and Uncommon Ground I am not in complete agreement with everything my life-long friend says. For starters, I disagree with his stance that a default would have been catastrophic. That's a moot point however, and cannot be proven either way because the precipice was essentially an illusion. We may have been on the edge, but there was approximately a zero percent chance of falling off. Those small differences aside, I wholeheartedly agree with the three key ideas in Wise's article. - We need to fix the budget problem
- Everything should be on the table
- No one should walk away completely happy
Compromise Misery Needed In regards to point number 3, Wise did not go far enough. I propose what's needed is for Democrats and Republicans alike to both walk away from the table, not only unhappy, but downright miserable. Here are my proposals for mutual misery. Democrat Misery In return for the above much needed Democrat misery, I would be willing to accept a modest increase in taxes. Of course that would make Republicans unhappy. But unhappiness is not what we need, we need outright misery as follows. Republican Misery - Modest tax hikes
- Huge decreases in military spending
- All US troops on foreign soil come home within three years
- Huge reductions in military spending
Some issues are non-partisan. For example food crop supports are promoted by farm-state Republicans and Democrats. Drug imports fall along similar lines. Thus we need to spread the misery. Non-Partisan Misery - Elimination of all tariffs
- Elimination of all crop supports
- Drug imports from Canada and foreign countries
Food Stamp Misery To get people off welfare and on to workfare, we need to reduce the incentives to collect welfare. This is what I suggested earlier. - Prohibit food stamp purchases of potato chips, snacks, soft drinks, candy, pizza, frozen foods of any kind except juice.
- Limit food stamp users to generic (store brand vs. name brand) dried beans, rice, peanut butter, pasta, fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, frozen (not bottled) juice, canned vegetables, canned soup, soda crackers, poultry, ground beef, bread, cheese, powdered milk, eggs, margarine, and general baking goods (flour, sugar, spices).
- Calculate a healthy diet based on current prices, number in the family, ages of recipients, and base food stamps allotments on that diet.
- In the interest of health and cleanliness, expand the food stamp program to include generic soap and laundry products.
My proposal would do something positive for food stamp recipients' health and the budget. And what better way to make people miserable than to make them eat healthy? Hopefully, miserable enough to seek a job. I am open to still more misery, as much as it takes, on each side, to balance the budget and lay a foundation for growth. Make All the Politicians and Lobbyists Miserable I nearly missed this key point: We need to make all of the politicians, public union advocates, and lobbyists on both sides of the aisle completely miserable. The way to do that is institute serious campaign finance reform. Vote buying and political pandering on both sides of the aisle are key reasons we are in this fiscal mess in the first place. To date, the word "compromise" means both sides get all the spending they want, deficit be damned. Worse yet, politicians are all too happy to let lobbyists write the legislation in return for donations. The result is the worst legislation money can buy. Footnote I revised the ending paragraphs with some small changes regarding food stamps, and more importantly to include campaign finance reform, vote buying, and the current meaning of compromise. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Non-Manufacturing ISM Beats Expectations Sending Bond Yields Higher Posted: 05 Nov 2013 10:46 AM PST The October 2013 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®, released today, came in at 55.4. This was above the bloomberg consensus estimate of 54.5 ISM at a Glance | Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing |
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| Index | Oct | Sep | Percentage Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend in Months | Oct | Sep | Percentage Point Change |
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| NMI™/PMI™ | 55.4 | 55.4 | +1.0 | Growing | Faster | 46 | 56.4 | 56.2 | +0.2 | | Business Activity/Production | 59.7 | 55.1 | +4.6 | Growing | Faster | 51 | 60.8 | 62.6 | -1.8 | | New Orders | 56.8 | 59.6 | -2.8 | Growing | Slower | 51 | 60.6 | 60.5 | +0/1 | | Employment | 56.2 | 52.7 | +3.5 | Growing | Faster | 15 | 53.2 | 55.4 | -2.2 | | Supplier Deliveries | 49.0 | 50.0 | -1.0 | Faster | From Unchanged | 1 | 54.7 | 52.6 | +2.1 | | Inventories | 54.5 | 54.5 | +0.0 | Growing | Same | 9 | 52.5 | 50.0 | +2.5 | | Prices | 56.1 | 57.2 | -1.1 | Increasing | Slower | 49 | 55.5 | 56.5 | -1.0 | | Backlog of Orders | 50.0 | 50.5 | -0.5 | Unchanged | From Growing | 1 | 51.5 | 49.5 | +2.0 | | New Export Orders | 53.0 | 57.5 | -4.5 | Growing | Slower | 3 | 57.0 | 52.0 | +5.0 | | Imports | 55.0 | 51.5 | +3.5 | Growing | Faster | 5 | 55.5 | 55.0 | +0.5 | | Inventory Sentiment | 62.5 | 62.0 | +0.5 | Too High | Faster | 197 | N/A | NA | N/A | | Customers' Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 47 | 43.0 | +4.0 | Treasury Yields Rise Treasury yields are up a bit in response to the numbers. Here are a couple of charts. $TNX: 10-Year Yield  Yield: 2.653% +0.51 Percentage Points $TYX: 30-Year Yield  Yield: 3.737% +0.46 Percentage Points Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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