duminică, 29 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Toxic Smoke Cloud Engulfs Greece; Six Years of Relentless Recession; Horrific Statistics

Posted: 29 Dec 2013 11:35 PM PST

Please consider a mass of grim statistics regarding Greece, via translation from the El Pais article: Ruined Greece takes the helm of the EU in the first half of 2014.
On January 1, Greece assumes the rotating presidency of the European Union in a state close to suffocation, not only via austerity adjustments since 2010, but also literally, by a toxic cloud fueled by wood fires that replace conventional heating.

The beret dense smog that grips these days Athens or Thessaloniki is also a metaphor for the political gridlock: the government insists on not lowering the tax on heating oil to intractable limits for broad social layers, but a group of 41 deputies of the conservative New Democracy (ND), rector of the bipartite Executive, has unsuccessfully raised a parliamentary motion to reduce it. An authentic rebellion aboard the party of Prime Minister Andonis Samaras. ND and Pasok socialist now number just 152 seats in a House of 300, and the rebel MPs representing about one-third in the ranks of ND.

The mutiny of the conservatives is just the penultimate chapter of an intestine, economic, but with clear political implications, the result of six years of recession and unfathomable weariness of citizenship to the endless cuts crisis.

Horrific Statistics

  • A 27.4% unemployment (nearly 52% among those under 24 years)
  • 3.8 million Greeks living in poverty or social exclusion in 2012 (400,000 more than the previous year)
  • 350,000 households without electricity for non-payment bills
  • 30% of the population have no access to public health care
  • Virtual paralysis of the universities, which since September run almost unattended by the dismissal of officials
  • Three killed by asphyxiation because of home fires for warmth
  • Four out of five blocks of flats facing the winter without heating due to inability to afford it
  • 21 continuous quarters recession
  • 34.6% of the Greek population at risk of poverty or social exclusion

Political Setup

  • SYRIZA, leads most polls of likely voters ahead of ND
  • Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn caress between 9% and 11% of the votes and consolidated as the third political force
  • Only 33% of citizens believe possible ND victory if the election were held today
  • The once mighty Pasok, houses more than a trashy expectations 5% support, compared with 44% of votes in 2009

How much longer the "New Democracy" government of Prime Minister Andonis Samaras can hang together remains to be seen.

Should Samaras lose a vote of confidence for any reason, the Greek house of debt that that cannot and will not be paid back all comes crashing down.

For those counting, Greece received 240 billion euros in aid, in a foolish attempt by the Troika to keep Greece in the eurozone. Most of the loan has been earmarked for the recapitalization of banks and the payment of interest on the debt, which now accounts for 157% of GDP.

Germany and the ECB are adamant there will not be writedowns on that debt. Both are in fantasyland.

Default, accompanied by a messy eurozone breakup awaits.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Voters Take Negative View of Labor Unions; Liberals in Favor of Strikes (Until Strikes Happen); Aging Population an Anti-Union Force?

Posted: 29 Dec 2013 12:03 PM PST

In what is decidedly a good thing for California as well as the nation at-large, a recent Field Poll shows California Voters Take Negative View of Labor Unions.
According to the latest Field Poll, California voter views of labor unions have taken a decidedly negative turn over the past two and one-half years. Whereas a March 2011 survey found voters by a four to three margin, believing that labor unions generally do more good than harm, opinions about this have shifted, with more voters now saying they do more harm than good, 45% to 40%.

The poll also finds Californians sharply divided on the question of whether public transit workers should be allowed to go on strike, with 47% feeling they should continue to have this right, while 44% believe they shouldn't. Voters in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, who faced a paralyzing strike by its Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) workers in both July and October and who face the possibility of a third strike, are more likely than voters elsewhere to oppose public transit workers having the right to strike.

Overall Results



click on any chart for sharper image

Demographic and Political Breakdown



Union Household Trends

  • Those on the take at the expense of everyone else (unions) are overwhelmingly pro-union.
  • Even among union households, note the sharp 13% increase in the percentage of people who say unions do more harm than good. 
  • By a 49-35 margin, nonunion households now say unions do more harm than good.

Primary Union Support

  • Union households
  • Los Angeles County
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Age Group 18-29
  • Latinos
  • Blacks

The age demographic is interesting. Are teachers pounding pro-union propaganda into kids heads from age six through college?

Support for Ability to Strike



Those in Favor of Ability to Strike

  • Democrats
  • Independents
  • Liberals
  • Union households
  • Los Angeles County
  • Age Group 18-29
  • Age Group 30-39
  • Latinos
  • Blacks

Those Against Strikes

  • Republicans
  • Conservatives
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • 65 and older
  • Asians

These results are extremely interesting. Of course we see the expected political breakdowns.

Aging Population an Anti-Union Force?

Those 40-64 are against strikes by a  49-43 margin. Those 65 and older are against strikes by a 50-39 margin.

Those over 65 may be increasingly dependent on reliable public transportation and may be on fixed income as well. Those on fixed income budgets do not like price hikes because their income cannot keep up.

Implications suggest that an aging population is an anti-union force.

Liberals in Favor of Strikes (Until Strikes Happen)

On the humorous side, take a good look at San Francisco which suffered through a massive BART (Bay Area Transportation) strike. For details, please see my October 18 post BART Holds San Francisco Hostage; Best Way to Deal With Public Unions

The San Francisco Bay area, a bastion of liberal foolishness, is now against the ability of public transportation strikes by a 52-41 margin.

Conclusion: Liberals are all in favor of strikes until they are personally affected by them!

What follows is a repeat of things I have stated earlier. Some might not be aware but even FDR saw the light regarding public unions.

Message From FDR

Inquiring minds are reading snips from a Letter from FDR Regarding Collective Bargaining of Public Unions written August 16, 1937.
All Government employees should realize that the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service. It has its distinct and insurmountable limitations when applied to public personnel management.

The very nature and purposes of Government make it impossible for administrative officials to represent fully or to bind the employer in mutual discussions with Government employee organizations.

Particularly, I want to emphasize my conviction that militant tactics have no place in the functions of any organization of Government employees.

A strike of public employees manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to prevent or obstruct the operations of Government until their demands are satisfied. Such action, looking toward the paralysis of Government by those who have sworn to support it, is unthinkable and intolerable.
For more on public union slavery, coercion, bribery, and scapegoating please see ...



Best Way to Deal With Public Unions

The best way to deal with public unions is to not deal with them at all. Ronald Reagan had the right idea when he fired all of the PATCO workers.

Scott Walker had the right idea in Wisconsin when he ended collective bargaining of some public unions. Unfortunately, Walker failed to include police and firefighters.

Actual Wisconsin results prove Union-Busting is a "Godsend"; Elimination of Collective Bargaining is the Single Best Thing one Can do for School Kids

It's time to implement national right-to-work laws and put an end to public union collective bargaining nationally.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

New Law in France: Limos Must Wait 15 Minutes Minimum Before Picking Up Rides

Posted: 29 Dec 2013 10:51 AM PST

Want to arrange a limo in France to take you to the airport or go on a private tour? Thanks to a new law in France, you have to wait a minimum of 15 minutes except at 4 or 5 star hotels.

The reason: taxis persuaded government that chauffeur driven limos are "unfair competition".

Via translation from Les Echos, please consider Taxis against VTC: the conflict continues.

Note: "VTC" (Voiture de Tourisme avec Chauffeur) translates roughly as chauffeur driven touring car.
Starting January 1, limos must wait 15 minutes before they can pickup passenger. According the Minister of Crafts, Trade and Tourism and the Interior Minister, the delay helps distinguish the activity of VTCs from taxis.

The "Competition Authority" criticized the decree, emphasizing in particular that the radio taxis also operate on reservation. The "Competition Authority" claims the situation is "detrimental to consumers."
I had to look this up because it's the first I have heard of France's "Competition Authority".

Wikipedia explains "The Autorité de la concurrence (English: Competition Authority) is France's national competition regulator."

It's shocking the Autorité de la concurrence actually translates its rulings and opinions into English. Here are some examples.

Opinions translated into English


What's even more shocking than decisions translated into English is the fact that the Autorité de la concurrence appears to be on the right side of the issue (Does someone at the Autorité de la concurrence operate a VTC on the side?)

Regardless, Hollande's Minister of Crafts, Trade and Tourism and the Interior Minister ruled in favor of taxis. But the taxis are not fully appeased either. Taxis don't want competition from VTCs at all.

This is the way things "work" in France.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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