Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Assessing the Blame for Iraq: Bush, Obama, McCain, Others; Iraq Sunken Costs Posted: 12 Jun 2014 02:49 PM PDT In response to Iraq Splinters Into Pieces, Thank George Bush and the Neocons, I received emails from Neocon true believers and others who want to whitewash Bush's role in creating this mess. One person said Democrats are "equally" to blame. How laughable. Had Bush not trumped up lies, sucking Colin Powell along for the ride, the war would never have happened. Period. Yes, Democrat nutcases went along for the ride, notably Hillary Clinton. And had she just apologized for her stupidity, she might have won the nomination instead of Obama. Obama's Mistakes Others pointed out that Obama made mistakes. Indeed he did. Giving weapons to Islamic rebels in Syria was one of them. Undoubtedly that mindless action provided weapons that ended up in Iraq, not Syria. Reader Dennis writes .. "The current situation in Iraq didn't have to be this way for 2 reasons: 1. Bush should not have invaded, and 2. The Current Administration should not have provided assistance and weapons to the Al Qaeda linked insurgents in Syria, who intent to create an Islamist state in the region between Syria and Iraq." I agree, 100%. But the first mistake was the most costly. And look who thought Obama did not do enough in Syria. Why it's none other than WWIII proponent, Republican Senator John McCain. Flashback February 16, 2014: Think Progress reports McCain: It's 'Ludicrous' To Say More U.S. Military Aid Will Worsen Syria's Civil War Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) on Sunday dismissed the notion that increasing American military assistance to rebels in Syria could worsen the conflict there. McCain has been calling for greater U.S. military intervention in Syria ever since Bashar al-Assad's regime cracked down violently on peaceful protests throughout the country in 2011. Now, with Syrian peace talks stalled and violence there getting worse and more brutal, CNN's Candy Crowley asked McCain on her State of the Union program whether adding more guns to the situation might do more harm than good. "Isn't it a terrible idea to do nothing in Syria?" McCain asked rhetorically. But later in the segment, Crowley returned to the question. "Do you entertain the possibility," Crowley wondered, that "more harm could happen if we increased it, help militarily?" "More harm could happen?!" McCain shot back. "Candy with all due respect that's ludicrous. That's ludicrous!" Syria Weapons End Up In Iraq Where did those weapons end up? My bet is the same as reader Dennis. Yet, McCain (and other warmongers) want Obama to send more.  McCain also wants missiles in the Czech Republic. Is there any war action McCain doesn't want? Obama Won't Rule Out Airstrikes to Aid Iraq's Army To combat Obama's mindless sending of weapons to Syria (supported 500% by McCain), Bloomberg reports Obama Won't Rule Out Airstrikes to Aid Iraq's Army. "I don't rule out anything," Obama said today when asked whether the U.S. was willing conduct drone strikes or take other action against the jihadists. Iraq "clearly is an emergency situation" and the government there needs more help. Any move by Obama to intervene in Iraq would hit opposition in Congress. While some lawmakers were pressing for the U.S. to act, the Republican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Representative Howard "Buck" McKeon, said he would oppose funding any military action. His counterpart in the Senate, Democratic Senator Carl Levin, said he was skeptical that air strikes made sense. Colonel Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters that the U.S. is moving ahead with military assistance programs started with Iraq since 2011, to include expediting the lease of AH-64 Apache helicopters for delivery this year as well as delivery of 100 Boeing Co. (BA) Scan Eagle surveillance drones. The Pentagon this month notified Congress for approval to sell Iraq an additional $1 billion in military equipment including Beechcraft AT-6C attack aircraft, AM General Humvee trucks and Raytheon Co. (RTN) aerostats. Republicans in Congress accused Obama of ignoring a growing threat to the U.S. from the fighting in Iraq. Arizona Senator John McCain said withdrawing all U.S. forces was a mistake and that the president should fire "his entire national security team, which has been a total failure." House Speaker John Boehner blamed the turmoil in Syria, Egypt and now Iraq on Obama's policy failures and accused him of ignoring signs of the growing threat from Sunni extremists. "They're 100 miles from Baghdad," the Ohio Republican said at a Washington news conference."And what's the president doing? Taking a nap." Always More! Yep, There you have it. Boehner and McCain, want Obama to do more. Always more! Always forgetting that Bush started this madness. And Republican readers always forget neocons pressure Obama to do the very things that blow up. Maliki' Connection Nouri al-Maliki' is Prime Minister of Iraq. Who is responsible for putting Maliki' in charge? The answer is none other than George Bush.  Bloomberg continues ... Levin, of Michigan, told reporters, "We shouldn't knee-jerk anything. We should look at all the options carefully and thoughtfully." Levin and other lawmakers faulted Maliki for refusing to sign an agreement for some U.S. troops to remain in Iraq and for using his government to enforce Shiite Muslim rule instead of seeking accommodation with Iraq's Sunni minority. While the militants' swift victories raise questions about Obama's 2011 decision to withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq and his reluctance to help arm moderate Syrian rebels fighting Sunni extremists in that country, polls show Americans are in no mood for another overseas intervention. Forty-seven percent want the U.S. to do less on the global stage, while only 19 percent favor more engagement, an April NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed. Sunken Costs People are tired of war and warmongering. Rightfully so. The Iraq war, begun with the U.S.-led invasion to oust Saddam Hussein in 2003, cost 4,490 Americans their lives, according to Defense Department data. The price for U.S. taxpayers was more than $2 trillion, according to the Costs of War Project by the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island. I suggest we face the harsh reality: nothing can bring the lives lost or the money spent back. We wasted $2 trillion dollars already. Let's not waste more. McCain, as always wants to press on. And since this is a clear case of "Mission Accomplished", somehow this is all Obama's fault. By the way it should be perfectly clear now why elder Bush did not continue on to Baghdad and why it was a huge mistake for baby Bush to "finish the job". Time for Self Assessment I can and do blame Obama for countless things. But Republicans would be very wise to self-assess on Iraq, on nation building, and on warmongering in general. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com    Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Iraq Splinters Into Pieces, Al Qaeda in Control of Several Cities, Kurds Take Oil City Kirkuk; Thank George Bush and the Neocons; Iraq Before and After Posted: 12 Jun 2014 10:10 AM PDT "They will shower us with flowers." Anyone recall that idiotic line from disgraced Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld? Remember any of these lies... "Oil will flow freely." "The war will pay for itself." "We know where they [WOMDs] are." And with blatant lies and complete ineptitude, the US set about "nation building" in Iraq. It was the neocon's number one wet dream at the time. Today the results are in. A few articles will explain how it turned out. Islamic Militants Take Mosul and Tikrit Please consider Militants Step Up Iraq Attack. Militants from an al-Qaeda splinter group stormed the Turkish consulate in Mosul, Iraq's second city, on Wednesday and took 49 people hostage. The jihadi group, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis), expanded its offensive just 24 hours after taking control of Mosul. The militants pushed south and appeared to have taken over Tikrit, the home town of Iraq's executed former leader Saddam Hussein. Turkey called for an emergency Nato meeting while Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prime minister, discussed the issue with US Vice President Joe Biden, who told him that Washington was "prepared to support Turkey's efforts to bring about the safe return of its citizens", according to a White House summary of the conversation. Isis's seizure of Mosul on Tuesday and its continuing offensive underline how Iraq has again been driven to the brink of civil war by political tensions between the country's Shia, Sunni and Kurdish communities, which have been exacerbated by the sectarian civil war in neighbouring Syria. Kurds Take Oil City Kirkuk The Financial Times reports Iraq Slides Further Into Turmoil as Kurds Take Oil City Kirkuk. Iraq's Shia-dominated government launched air strikes on Sunni insurgent positions in and around the city of Mosul on Thursday as Islamist forces hurtled toward the capital and Kurdish troops seized control of the key oil city of Kirkuk. State television aired images of what it described as air strikes on insurgent positions in Mosul, seized on Tuesday after a days-long assault by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis) and its allies, as Iraqi forces abandoned their posts and fled. Turkish media also reported the Turkish military was flying surveillance drones over Mosul in a co-ordinated move with Baghdad. Iraqi media reported clashes between Islamist insurgents and Iraqi security forces in Abu Ghraib, just west of Baghdad, as Isis warned it would take its battle to the cities of Najaf and Karbala, shrine and seminary cities holy to the Shia faith. "Go to Caliphate Baghdad. We have a score to settle," Isis spokesman Abu Mohamed al-Adnani urged in an audio recording posted online. "We will settle our differences not in Samarra or Baghdad but in Karbala, the filth-ridden city, and in Najaf, the city of polytheism." Insurgents Surround Iraq's Largest Refinery in Baiji Reuters reports Insurgents Surround Iraq's Largest Refinery in Baiji. Insurgents surrounded Iraq's largest refinery in the northern town of Baiji on Thursday, police and an engineer inside said. Sunni militants first moved into Baiji late on Tuesday, closing in on the refinery, but later withdrew to the surrounding villages after reaching a deal with local tribal chiefs. A witness who lives in a house near the refinery said the militants arrived in more than 50 vehicles. ZeroHedge provides still more details in Al Qaeda Insurgents Surround Iraq's Largest Refinery. Iraq Before and After Bush's Nation Building Effort Before: Iraq was a functioning country. After: Iraq is in ruins, much of its infrastructure wiped out Before: Iraq pumped oil After: Iraq doesn't and we have paid for that at the pump ever since Before: Iraq was ruled by a secular leader After: The US installed a Shiite puppet while verbally fighting Shiites in Iran Before: Religious freedom was the norm. Catholics, Sunnis, Shiites all got along, not perfectly but acceptably After: People are killed every day for their religious beliefs. Catholics are persecuted. Before: Women had relative freedom After: Women are likely to be shot in some cities if they do not cover their faces Before: Al Qaeda was not in Iraq. Hussein wanted nothing to do with religious zealots. After. Al Qaeda is in control of several cities Before: Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction. After: Quite possibly they exist in Iraq now. Before: Iraq military was in control.    After: Iraq in open civil war, splintered into several pieces, each controlled by a different faction Before: Iraq was no terrorist threat. After: It sure is now. Before: US has no embassy in Iraq. After: US's largest embassy in the world is in Iraq Details on that last point are rather amazing. Please consider Embassy of the United States, Baghdad. At 440,000 square meters, it is the largest and most expensive embassy in the world and is nearly as large as Vatican City. It employs 15,000 people and cost $750 million to build. The Embassy opened in January 2009 following a series of construction delays. It replaced the previous embassy, which opened July 1, 2004 in Baghdad's Green Zone in a former Palace of Saddam Hussein. Idiocy of Nation Building Such is the idiocy of nation building. Hussein was an evil man. But it cost over $1 trillion dollars to get rid of him. And it was none of our business to do so. We have ongoing expenses at the embassy. Oil prices are higher. The US could not afford any of this. Iraq is in ruins. Hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians were killed or injured. Millions more lost their livelihoods. And the US caused it. So where is the apology? Better yet where, are the criminal prosecutions? Are Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld any less of war criminals than Hussein? Addendum: I nearly forgot one of the biggest one-liners of all "Mission Accomplished!" Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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