| Top Gun Style Aerial Chicken With Russia Sends US Spy Plane Into Swedish Air Space Without Permission Posted: 03 Aug 2014 10:24 PM PDT In an attempt to avoid Russian radar and a Russian fighter jet, a US Official Admits Spy Plane Flees Russian Jet, Radar; Ends Up Over Sweden. The Cold War aerial games of chicken portrayed in the movie "Top Gun" are happening in real life again nearly 30 years later.
A U.S. Air Force spy plane evaded an encounter with the Russian military on July 18, just a day after Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was downed by a suspected surface-to-air missile that Ukraine and the West allege was fired by pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine.
The RC-135 Rivet Joint fled into nearby Swedish airspace without that country's permission, a U.S. military official told CNN. The airplane may have gone through other countries' airspace as well, though it's not clear if it had permission to do so.
The U.S. plane had been flying in international airspace, conducting an electronic eavesdropping mission on the Russian military, when the Russians took the unusual action of beginning to track it with land-based radar.
The Russians then sent at least one fighter jet into the sky to intercept the aircraft, the U.S. official said Saturday.
The spy plane crew felt so concerned about the radar tracking that it wanted to get out of the area as quickly as possible, the official said. The quickest route away from the Russians took them into Swedish airspace. The U.S. official acknowledged that was done without Swedish military approval.
As a result of this incident, the United States is discussing the matter with Sweden and letting officials know there may be further occurrences where American jets have to divert so quickly they may not be able to wait for permission.
"We acknowledge a U.S. aircraft veered into Swedish airspace and will take active steps to ensure we have properly communicated with Swedish authorities in advance to prevent similar issues before they arise," the U.S. State Department said. Questions of the DayIf you cannot wait for permission, are you where you are not supposed to be in the first place? Is this how stupid wars start? Or is that exactly what the US wants? How about both? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Steen Jakobsen Short Dax, Long Treasuries, Sees Major Buy Signal for Gold, Silver, Mining Posted: 03 Aug 2014 07:04 AM PDT Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and CIO of Saxo Bank is back from a Tour De France and summer holiday and says "it's time for status on macro view and a look into what rest of 2014 gives us". Steen shares his views in a Trading Floor post Steen's Chronicle: Three things can't be hidden long: The sun, the moon and the truth (Buddha). This week saw US GDP rebound an impressive 4.0% taking the run rate for GDP in 2014 to 2.3%, still shy of the ambitious 3.0% the consensus firmly believe in. Wall Street is busy selling strategies on how to hedge the coming hike in policy rates from Fed and we are, again, told how rates will explode.
This narrative will implode and shortly, if I look at Saxo Bank's JABA models:
Main Macro and Market calls:
Saxo Bank Main Macro and Market Calls
- Fixed income will outperform all assets class' in 2014 – View established in Q4-2013. Long 1.5% Danish Government bond, Long Bunds futures, Long 10 Year USA.
- US Dollar will sell off in H2 of 2014 – NEW VIEW. Long EURUSD and adding short
- USDJPY. Targets: 1.40+ and 96.00 USDJPY. Yield in US will accelerate to downside in Aug-Nov.
- Germany will reach negative growth by Q1-2015 & France will be in recession.
- Euro growth reach zero again. 2014 another lost year in economics and non-reforms
- Inflation expectations will bottom in Q4 – major buy signal for gold, silver and more importantly mining.
- Short Dax since 10.000 - and still believe in 25-30% correction in H2-2014 as projected all year.
- Geopolitical risk will see keep energy prices elevated – leaving the consumer with less disposable income and companies with thinner profit margins.
Alpha Positions
ALPHA Positions: (all of which is more than three month old except EURUSD and Crude)
- Fixed income: Long Bunds since November 2013 / Long 10 Y since April – adding IEF on this "Fed scare"
- Equity: Short DAX only
- Commodities: Long Sep. WTI Crude (since two weeks ago)
- FX: Long EUR/USD from yesterday just below 1.3500 in Sep. Futures, Short AUDUSD Sep
- Futures (one month old), short ZAR calls – and looking to sell USDJPY
Beta Positions
- Long 80% fixed income since Q4-2013 – mainly Danish government bonds, Bunds and IEF.
- Long 15% long equity: AA, INVN, VALE – looking to buy mines, insurance companies and utility in Germany. Major short position not confirmed yet.
- Cash 5%
More in report. Brief synopsis of Steen's views: Short the German DAX, long US treasuries and German Bunds, gold and silver major buy signal coming up, US dollar topping vs. Euro, energy firm. As a proxy for 10-year US treasuries Steen mentions IEF the Barclays 7-10 year duration US treasury ETF. The play appears to be intermediate-term, citing "inflation expectations" in the 4th quarter. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Florida Obamacare Blues Posted: 02 Aug 2014 11:52 PM PDT Florida has the aging healthcare Obamacare blues as older citizens who previously had no healthcare insurance demand more services than ever before after enrolling As a result, Florida's largest health insurer, Florida Blue, is raising exchange rates an average of 17.6 percent. Florida Blue, the state's largest health insurer, is increasing premiums by an average of 17.6 percent for its Affordable Care Act exchange plans next year, company officials say.
The nonprofit Blue Cross and Blue Shield affiliate blames higher health costs that are a result of attracting older adults this year who previously lacked coverage and are using more services than expected.
Florida insurance regulators plan to release rate information for all companies next week. The exchange plans cover individuals who are not covered by employer-based policies.
Florida Blue offers many plans. The 40 percent of its individual policyholders who chose "narrow network" plans called BlueSelect — which limit coverage to fewer doctors and hospitals — will see rates rise by an average of 13 percent.
Critics of the health law have predicted big rate hikes in the second year of the online marketplaces. Florida Blue CEO Patrick Geraghty noted that premiums in the individual market have been going up for years. "In the individual market, this type of average rate increase is typical," he told Kaiser Health News. "It is not aberrant."
Next year will mark the fourth consecutive year Florida Blue has increased premiums by an average of at least 11 percent for people under 65 who buy coverage on their own. Florida Blue increased rates an average of 16.5 percent in 2014, 16 percent in 2013 and 11.5 percent in 2012, the company said.
Florida Blue signed up 339,000 customers through the Affordable Care Act's federal marketplace this year — about 34 percent of the almost 1 million who enrolled in the state, the company said. Florida does not operate its own exchange.
Several factors related to the health law are driving up rates for next year, Geraghty said, including a paucity of younger and healthy enrollees and a greater-than-expected surge of people seeking expensive health services. The law prohibits insurers from rejecting people with health problems or charging them higher premiums. That meant that many unhealthy people who had not been able to get coverage before were able to obtain policies in 2014.
"No one can claim in good conscience that a 10-percent rate increase or more would signal the advent of something new and unprecedented," said Greg Mellowe, policy director of the consumer group Florida CHAIN. "For years, this was standard practice in Florida." Standard PracticeNo need to worry. This is nothing new or unprecedented. Rates have been going up 10 percent a year, as " standard practice". Let's do the compound math on a typical $300-$400 per month policy, assuming a midpoint of $350 per month and a " standard practice" hike of 10% a year.  The above chart appears shocking, but there is absolutely nothing to fear. As we all know, deficits don't matter and besides, Obamacare will pick up the tab. If the tab grows unexpectedly, we can tax the rich and the poor, and the young and the old (especially the young who we already make overpay for insurance). And if that doesn't work, the Fed can simply print the money. The fallback options are so enormous, one can only wonder why healthcare is not free to everyone on the planet. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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