marți, 11 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

More Robots: Google's "Atlas" Robot Mimics "Karate Kid"; Flying Defibrillator "Ambulance Drone" Unveiled; Fed Has No Answer

Posted: 11 Nov 2014 02:59 PM PST

Robotic technology continues at a rapidly expanding pace. Here's a look at two new technologies.

Flying Defibrillator "Ambulance Drone"

Tech Crunch reports Flying Defibrillator 'Ambulance Drone' Cuts Response Time Down to Couple of Minutes
A Dutch engineer has created a flying defibrillator for emergency situations. The drone, called the Ambulance Drone, would be stationed at various points in the city. In an emergency, people on the scene can call it in and it arrives a few seconds later. The built-in defibrillator unit can be used by anyone and it allows doctors to monitor the situation after the shocks are administered.

The drone includes a webcam and loudspeaker and allows remote doctors to walk people on the scene through the process of attaching the electrodes and preparing the defibrillator. The creator, Alec Momont of TU Delft's Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, said that 20% of people can operate a defibrillator without instruction and the number rises when they have prompts from trained personnel.

"Some 800,000 people suffer a cardiac arrest in the EU every year, and only 8% survive," Momont explains. "The main reason for this is the relatively long response time of the emergency services (approx. 10 minutes), while brain death and fatalities occur within 4 to 6 minutes. The ambulance drone can get a defibrillator to a patient inside a 12 km zone within one minute. This response speed increases the chance of survival following a cardiac arrest from 8% to 80%."
Ambulance Drone Video



Google's "Atlas" Robot Mimics "Karate Kid"

9-to-5 Google reports Google-owned Boston Dynamics debuts new video of Atlas robot mimicking 'The Karate Kid'.
Google-owned robotics lab Boston Dynanics has debuted new video of its 6'2″ Atlas robot, also known as "Ian." The hulking mass of metal, which weighs a whopping 330 lbs, has been programmed to recreate a key scene from the 1984 film The Karate Kid.

Ian is part of an ongoing robotics project that seeks to create automatons that can replace humans in hazardous roles like firefighting. Ian has already demonstrated a variety of abilities, including traversing difficult and uneven terrain, carrying objects such as firehoses, and even to get into a car and drive it. It can also use both its hands and feet to climb over the most treacherous obstacles.

Ian's head is made up of two cameras and a laser rangefinder that provide it with the necessary depth perception to accomplish many tasks that most other robots simply wouldn't be able to. It can turn its head to get a better view of its surroundings. It has a total of 28 moveable joints throughout its body.
Atlas Drone Video

As 9-to-5 suggests, turn down your audio for this one. The video sound is more than a bit annoying.



Amazing Technology Pace

Robot technology advances at an amazing pace. It is easy to pooh-pooh this technology as unusable, but it will not be unusable for long.

I believe it's safe to assume that drones, under command from a limited number of humans, will eventually be able to replace a big subset of firefighters.

More On Robots

October 29, 2014: Meet "OSHbot" Lowes New Store Helper; Goodbye Retail Associates, Hello Robots
August 18, 2014: Rising Robots: Is it Obvious Robots Cost Human Jobs? Looking for Someone to Blame?
June 23, 2104: Robot Truck Convoy Tests in Nevada; Driverless Trucks Before Cars, and Before the End of the Decade
May 28, 2104: Google Unveils Self-Driving Car, No Steering Wheel, No Accelerator, No Brake Pedal; Self-Driving Taxi Has Arrived
May 23, 2014: Amazon to Increase Robots from 1,400 to 10,000 by End of 2014; Day in the Life of a Robot
October 9, 2013: High-Tech Robotic Wine: The Future of Winemaking is Robots
October 6, 2013: Reader Question on Robots: What are People Supposed To Do For Their Livelihoods?
October 4, 2013: Never Has Arrived; The Last MileApril 25, 2013: Robotic Outsourcing; Food Preparation Robots Invade China, Japan, US; Who is to Blame, and What Can be Done About It?February 24, 2013: Robots Don't Commit Suicide (and Other Robot Advantages)
January 22, 2013: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage, No Benefits, Part-Time Job, Because He's Still Much Cheaper; Fed Cannot Win a Fight Against Robots
August 20, 2012: Robots to Rule the World? Taking All Jobs? Replace Women?

Fed Has No Answer

Technology is extremely price-deflationary. Robots are cheaper and faster than human counterparts in an ever-increasing number of roles.

Neither the Fed, nor governments have an answer.

  1. Higher minimum wages encourage more use of robots.
  2. Lower interest rates make it easier for companies to borrow to invest in technology. 
  3. Lower interest rates also increase income inequality.

In regards to point number three above, lower interest rates boost earnings which in turn boosts CEO salaries and raises the value of stock options.

Those with no assets lose as real wages decline.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

More Blowbacks: Russia to Build 8 New Nuclear Reactors in Iran; Putin Signs Another Gas Deal with China

Posted: 11 Nov 2014 11:50 AM PST

As the US (but not Germany) threatens more sanctions to "punish" Russia, I keep wondering who is punishing whom?

Is Chancellor Merkel finally beginning to see the economic and geopolitical stupidity of sanctions?

I ask because the Wall Street Journal reports Merkel: No New Economic Sanctions on Russia Planned.

Meanwhile, Obama and Putin briefly met on Tuesday at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing.

On that note, the Washington Examiner reports Obama Talks Ukraine with Putin as White House Hints New Sanctions are Coming.

Rocks in Head Sure to Rattle

Russia has responded twice in two days in ways that will have the rocks in president Obama's and Senator John McCain's head rattling for sure.

Russia to Build 8 New Nuclear Reactors in Iran

The Financial Times reports Russia-Iran Nuclear Reactor Deal Raises Eyebrows.
Russia has agreed to build eight new nuclear reactors in Iran in a deal raising eyebrows in Washington and Europe as fraught international talks to curb Tehran's atomic ambitions near their deadline.

Meeting in Moscow on Tuesday, Iranian and Russian officials said they had negotiated terms for the construction by Russia's state nuclear power company Rosatom of four new reactors at the Islamic republic's existing Russian-built Bushehr facility, and four more at another site in the country.

Russian officials said their eight-plant nuclear deal – the broad terms of which were first laid down in a 1995 agreement – could boost efforts to make Iran's nuclear activities more transparent and would benefit the Vienna discussions.

"The entire construction project of the nuclear power units in Iran, including equipment and nuclear fuel supplies, will be under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards and fully meet the nuclear non-proliferation regime the same way as during construction of the first power unit of Bushehr," Rosatom said in a statement.
Make-or-Break Moment
Iranian negotiators and counterparts from the P5+1 – the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany – are set to meet next week in Vienna to begin the final bout of talks aimed at ending crippling international sanctions against the Islamic republic in exchange for permanent limits to its uranium enrichment activities.

Speaking in Berlin, German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned that the talks were at a "make-or-break moment," and if no agreement was achievable by the November 24 deadline, it could be at least two years before they could meaningfully resume. 
Oversight Not Wanted

More independent oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency should be precisely what everyone wants.

Perhaps Merkel can pound some common sense into Obama's head, but don't count on that. Her judgement has not been all that brilliant lately, to say the least.   

Instead, I fully expect McCain will have a hyperventilation attack and Obama will go along with McCain.

This is really not about oversight but rather about total control. The US wants to dictate what every country can or cannot do. It's that simple.

Iran Sanctions Will Break Soon

Should the US scuttle the "make-or-break talks", look for Russia and China to work out more deals to buy Iranian oil.

South Africa, which only went along with sanctions under pressure from Obama, may also throw in the towel. Other countries will follow. One way or another, I expect the sanctions on Iran to break down soon.

Obama has two unpalatable choices at this point.

Option 1: Should the November 24 talks die without agreement, the Obama-inspired sanctions will end in total complete failure, obvious to the entire world.

Option 2: Obama agrees to lift the sanctions, with McCain and the war hawks howling bloody murder.

No Winning Play for Obama

Putin's Iran nuclear reactor deal was announced purposely at this time to make Obama look like a fool. And it worked.

There is no real winning play for Obama at this point. That's something one ought to consider when imposing inane sanctions.

Should sanity prevail and the US lift the sanctions, one needs to stop and ask the questions "What did we get, and was it worth the effort?"  

Perhaps the threat of option 1 will save the day, culminating in an Obama "we did it speech" that in reality will be much ado about nothing, and with McCain bellowing like a sick moose for weeks.

That is the very best Obama can get out of this mess now.

Putin Signs Another Gas Deal with China

The Financial Times takes the cake for the most ridiculous headline of the month with Putin Snubs Europe with Siberian Gas Deal that Bolsters China Ties.

"Putin Snubs Europe?!"

What the H should Europe expect when it bows to the inane wishes of Obama and imposes ridiculous sanctions on Russia. Also note that in response to Ukraine, the EU blocked Russia's pipeline proposals to bring more gas to Europe.

What's Putin supposed to do? Kiss Obama's ass?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Obamacare Architect Explains "Stupidity of American Voter" Needed to Pass ACA

Posted: 11 Nov 2014 12:29 AM PST

The truth on Obamacare is finally out: The bill was purposely written to trick the CBO (congressional Budget Office) into believing the bill was not a tax. Moreover, the bill also depended on the "Stupidity of the American Voter".

Many of us knew that long ago. But those are the words of Jonathan Gruber, a numbers wizard at M.I.T., who was courted by the Obama administration, and paid $400,000 for his efforts to see that the bill made its way through Congressional obstacles.

The following short video explains the setup.



Academic Case

Back in 2012, regarding Gruber's role in getting the bill passed, the New York Times wrote Academic Built Case for Mandate in Health Care Law.

Interestingly, Gruber was also the architect for Romneycare when Mitt Romney was Massachusetts governor.

Romney was proud of Romneycare until president Obama endorsed virtually the same idea as Obamacare. Romney then ran against his own creation. Lovely.

I picked up the video above from Reason.Com Watch Obamacare Architect Jonathan Gruber Explain Why "Lack of Transparency" Was Key to Passing the Health Care Law.

Complete Quote
Gruber: "This bill was written in a tortured way to make sure CBO did not score the mandate as taxes. If CBO [Congressional Budget Office] scored the mandate as taxes, the bill dies. Okay, so it's written to do that. In terms of risk rated subsidies, if you had a law which said that healthy people are going to pay in – you made explicit healthy people pay in and sick people get money, it would not have passed… Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage. And basically, call it the stupidity of the American voter or whatever, but basically that was really really critical for the thing to pass....Look, I wish Mark was right that we could make it all transparent, but I'd rather have this law than not."
Reason says (and I wholeheartedly agree) ...
Gruber thinks it's acceptable to deceive people if he believes that's the only way to achieve his policy preference. That's not exactly surprising, given that he failed to disclose payments from the administration to consult on Obamacare even while providing the media with supposedly independent assessments of the law.

But it's particularly revealing in light of Gruber's recently discovered comments regarding the way the law's subsidies for health insurance are supposed to work. In a 2012 video unearthed this summer, Gruber said explicitly that the tax credits to offset coverage costs were conditioned on state participation in the law's exchanges—a contention that the administration denies, and is at the heart of a legal challenge on its way to the Supreme Court.
Tax Credit Legal Challenge

Jumping to the above 2012 video link we find Gruber arguing out of both sides of his mouth in regards to tax credits. Each side taking the opposite side of the other.
Gruber: "What's important to remember politically about this is if you're a state and you don't set up an exchange, that means your citizens don't get their tax credits—but your citizens still pay the taxes that support this bill. So you're essentially saying [to] your citizens you're going to pay all the taxes to help all the other states in the country. I hope that that's a blatant enough political reality that states will get their act together and realize there are billions of dollars at stake here in setting up these exchanges. But, you know, once again the politics can get ugly around this."

Reason: "What he says is exactly what challengers to the administration's implementation of the law have been arguing—that if a state chooses not to establish its own exchange, then residents of those states will not be able to access Obamacare's health insurance tax credits. ... In early 2013, Gruber told the liberal magazine Mother Jones that the theory advanced by the challengers in this case was 'nutty.' Gruber also signed an amicus brief in defense of the administration and the IRS rule. But judging by the video it is quite clear that in 2012 he accepted the essence of the interpretation advanced by the challengers."
Here's the video, which according to YouTube's date stamp was uploaded by Noblis on January 20, 2012. The relevant passage starts around minute 31.



And so here we are, stuck in a system designed by Gruber and implemented first by Mitt Romney, then by President Obama.

To get Obamacare through Congress was a chore. It depended on the "Stupidity of the American Voter", says Gruber in those exact words.

Whom do we "thank" most? Gruber, Romney, Obama, or the stupid American public?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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