Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Illinois Passes Law Making it a Felony to Video Police; How to Stop Police Abuse; More on CIA Torture
• Spain Seeks €60 Billion of Juncker's Alleged €315 Billion Development Fund; Vaporware Funding
• US Army Major Replies to My Torture Post
• I Traded Some Gold For Silver

Illinois Passes Law Making it a Felony to Video Police; How to Stop Police Abuse; More on CIA Torture Posted: 10 Dec 2014 03:13 PM PST How to Stop Police Abuse There's one way and one way only to stop police abuse: Criminally prosecute it, then allow civil penalties. In a podcast today with Chris Martenson, Chris suggested civil penalties should come straight out of the police retirement fund, not taxpayer pockets. But as with CIA torture, government does not really want to stop abuse, they want to stop reporting the abuse. Earlier this year, Illinois passed a law making videotaping of police illegal. However, the Illinois Supreme Curt struck down the law as a violation of free speech. So what did the Illinois legislature do? They wrote an even worse law. Illinois Passes Law Making it a Felony to Video Police Via email from Jacob Huebert, senior attorney at the Liberty Justice Center, the Illinois Policy Institute's free-market public-interest litigation center. Earlier this year, the Illinois Supreme Court struck down a state eavesdropping law that made it a crime for citizens to record conversations with police or anyone else without the other person's permission. The court held that the old law "criminalize[d] a wide range of innocent conduct" and violated free-speech rights. In particular, the court noted the state could not criminalize recording activities where there is no reasonable expectation of privacy, including citizens' "public" encounters with police. Now the old law is back, with just a few changes, in a new bill sent to the governor's desk by the Illinois Senate on Dec. 4. The bill not only passed, but did so overwhelmingly with votes of 106-7 in the House on and 46-4-1 in the Senate. The new version is nearly as bad as the old one. Under the new bill, a citizen could rarely be sure whether recording any given conversation without permission is legal. The bill would make it a felony to surreptitiously record any "private conversation," which it defines as any "oral communication between 2 or more persons," where at least one person involved had a "reasonable expectation" of privacy. When does the person you're talking to have a reasonable expectation of privacy? The bill doesn't say. And that's not something an ordinary person can be expected to figure out. A law must be clear enough for citizens to know in advance whether a particular action is a crime. This bill doesn't meet that standard, which should be reason enough for a court to strike it down if it becomes law. But lack of clarity isn't the only problem with this bill. Although it appears to be designed to accommodate the Illinois Supreme Court's ruling striking down the old law, the bill actually is designed to continue to prevent people from recording interactions with police. The bill says it would only be a crime to record someone where there is a reasonable expectation of privacy, which should mean that recording public encounters with police would not be a crime, and the old law's fatal constitutional flaw would no longer exist. But the bill doesn't really fix the problem. Again, citizens can't be expected to know for sure precisely which situations give rise to an "expectation of privacy" and which don't. The Illinois Supreme Court said that police don't have an expectation of privacy in "public" encounters with citizens, but it did not explain what counts as a "public" encounter. So if this bill becomes law, people who want to be sure to avoid jail time will refrain from recording police at all, and the law will therefore still effectively prevent people from recording police. The bill would also discourage people from recording conversations with police by making unlawfully recording a conversation with police – or an attorney general, assistant attorney general, state's attorney, assistant state's attorney or judge – a class 3 felony, which carries a sentence of two to four years in prison. Meanwhile, the bill makes illegal recording of a private citizen a class 4 felony, which carries a lower sentencing range of one to three years in prison. There's only one apparent reason for imposing a higher penalty on people who record police in particular: to make people especially afraid to record police. That is not a legitimate purpose. And recent history suggests it's important that people not be afraid to record police wherever they perform their duties so that officers will be more likely to respect citizens' rights, and officers who do respect citizens' rights will be able to prove it. The bill might also provide an excuse to scuttle body cameras for police. Police may argue that using body cameras to record encounters with citizens outside of "public" places would violate the law, as citizens have not consented to being recorded. We should mention one more thing about this bill. It was introduced on Tuesday, Dec. 2, as an amendment to an existing bill on a completely different subject. The amendment removed all of the bill's previous content and replaced it with the new ban on recording. The House passed it the following day, and the Senate passed it the day after that. So the people who would have cared most about this bill probably didn't notice it in time to object. They might have had their attention focused on other issues that were in the news, such as the recorded police killing of Eric Garner. Even if this bill were constitutional, it would still be unnecessary and a terrible idea. Most other states allow a person to record a conversation with only one party's consent and don't try to scare people out of recording police by threatening them with felony charges. Despite its bipartisan support, Gov. Pat Quinn should do one more thing to bolster his legacy before he leaves office and veto this bill. Jacob Huebert Senior Attorney, Liberty Justice Center How to Stop Torture The way to stop CIA torture is the same as the way to stop police abuse: criminal prosecution. Obama's fluff statement "we won't let this happen again" will only be believable if it comes with criminal prosecution from the top down, preferably at an international war crimes tribunal. UN Calls for Prosecution Yesterday, Ben Emmerson, United Nations Special Rapporteur on counter terrorism and human rights, called for prosecution of CIA officers and other US Government officials. International law prohibits the granting of immunities to public officials who have engaged in acts of torture. This applies not only to the actual perpetrators but also to those senior officials within the US Government who devised, planned and authorised these crimes. As a matter of international law, the US is legally obliged to bring those responsible to justice. The UN Convention Against Torture and the UN Convention on Enforced Disappearances require States to prosecute acts of torture and enforced disappearance where there is sufficient evidence to provide a reasonable prospect of conviction. States are not free to maintain or permit impunity for these grave crimes. It is no defence for a public official to claim that they were acting on superior orders. CIA officers who physically committed acts of torture therefore bear individual criminal responsibility for their conduct, and cannot hide behind the authorisation they were given by their superiors. However, the heaviest penalties should be reserved for those most seriously implicated in the planning and purported authorisation of these crimes. Former Bush Administration officials who have admitted their involvement in the programme should also face criminal prosecution for their acts. Dick Cheney and CIA Director are War Criminals So far, the Only Person Jailed for CIA Torture is Man Who Reported It! Cheney's defense of torture (see CIA Torture Reports: Frozen to Death; Rectal Rehydration, Broken Limbs; 54 Countries Assist US; Dick Cheney War Criminal) makes Cheney and various CIA directors my top choices for prosecution. Torture Counterproductive The sad thing about torture is the CIA often gets innocent victims, and torture does not work even when they get the right guy (See US Army Major Replies to My Torture Post). Today, USAM responded ... "I am certain torture simply creates more enemies. For example, it's well known that Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Al Qaeda #2, went into an Egyptian prison in the early 1980s a simple fundamentalist Muslim, and after years of unspeakable torture (including being tied up and raped by prison dogs), came out a blood-thristy butcher. How many more terrorists has this CIA program created? I shudder to think."  What does the CIA and the state of Illinois want to do about abuse? Sad answer: Stop reporting abuses, and make it illegal to record them. Addendum: A Conversation With Friends I had the following email discussion regarding the Illinois law with two close friends. Seldom are we in complete agreement on things. First friend: Two words. Rodney King Second friend, a lawyer: That is one of the dumbest, anti-democratic laws I have ever heard of. In my view, it is unconstitutional. What a bunch of morons. First Friend: God! All three of us are on the same sheet of music! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Spain Seeks €60 Billion of Juncker's Alleged €315 Billion Development Fund; Vaporware Funding Posted: 10 Dec 2014 01:01 PM PST Yesterday, Spain Requested €60 Billion of Juncker's Alleged €315 Billion Development Fund. Via translation from La Vanguardia ... Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos, said Tuesday that Spain has submitted projects worth around 60 billion euros to the President of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, who aims to mobilize 315,000 billion euros. Guindos stressed the priorities for the Government are energy interconnections, transport and R & D. Juncker said the plan is a "key initiative" of the new Commission, "with the appropriate times, quickly and effectively." Vaporware Funding Spain wants €60 Billion. How much will France want? Greece? Portugal? Germany? How far will €315 Billion go? The answer is not far. As I commented on November 24, Juncker's €315bn EU Slush Fund is €299bn Sleight of Hand Magic. Juncker's €315bn EU Slush Fund looks like this. 95% Leveraged Magic, 5% Fund €16bn from the EU budget €5bn in guarantees from the European Investment Bank (EIB) €299bn is magic. Supposedly, private money will come up with €299bn based on €5bn in guarantees. Of course someone has to administer this action plan. So Juncker unveiled a new "investment advisory hub" run by "financial professionals" with direction from the European Commission and EIB. After padding their own pockets, the group will decide which projects to undertake, no doubt based on kickbacks, bribes, and political favoritism to friends. To make the deal even sweeter for their political cronies, the EU will offer a "first-loss" guarantee, where the EU money would absorb any initial investment losses in an effort to "crowd in" private investors looking for more secure upside. Given that it's all funny money anyway, I have a question: Why not provide €50bn in guarantees raising €2.99 trillion in the process? Leverage Math Out of a grand total of €16bn from the EU budget, Spain seeks €60 Billion. Taking into account Juncker's leveraged magic, if Spain got every penny of what it requested, it would get about €3bn from the EU budget. Leverage would provide the other €57 Billion. That really going to work? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

US Army Major Replies to My Torture Post Posted: 10 Dec 2014 11:17 AM PST In response to CIA Torture Reports: Frozen to Death; Dick Cheney War Criminal I received an interesting response from a U.S. Army Major. USAM writes ... Hi Mish, Just thought I'd write to share my opinion the recent torture revelations: "I'm sad and horrified to read the details of the CIA's torture program. To me, it represents the sickest form of consequentialism, one that has run roughshod over any type of moral authority the U.S. can claim in offering its leadership to the world. I'm further upset that my fellow brothers and sisters in uniform will most likely underwrite this disastrous program, as the enemy will now be all too eager to respond in kind to any American serviceman or woman unlucky enough to endure capture. I only wish we had the moral courage to make those responsible accountable for these unmistakable atrocities." All you've written on the subject is very well said. US Hypocrisy That response was unexpected even though USAM has emailed several times before in general agreement with things I have stated. I withheld his name for obvious reasons,  even though USAM did not request me to do so. For change to happen, it must come from within. Sadly, president Obama cannot lead at all, and Bush-Cheney led us in the wrong direction. Clearly, CIA torture is US hypocrisy at its very worst, yet supported openly by Vice President Dick Cheney, a chickenhawk who commented "I had other priorities in the '60s than military service". Ironically, one of the arguments Bush-Cheney used to invade Iraq was "Saddam Hussein tortured people". Of all the US hypocrites who deserve to rot in hell forever, Cheney surely must be near the top of the list. Unfortunately, Obama will do nothing but push all of this under the rug. Worse yet, many leaders in both parties support US-sponsored torture, yet whine at the slightest opportunity when other countries do the same. Salute! USAM makes me want to stand up and salute. It's not often I say that in complete sincerity about anything related to US military service. Followup Post: Illinois Passes Law Making it a Felony to Video Police; How to Stop Police Abuse; More on CIA Torture Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I Traded Some Gold For Silver Posted: 10 Dec 2014 01:16 AM PST Last Friday I decided the gold:silver ratio was so out of line that I swapped some of my gold for silver. The ratio is a measure of how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold. Exchange Rate My exchange rate last Friday was as follows: "USD 38.2355/goldgram & USD 16.3589/silver ounce" where 1 gram (g) of gold Equals 0.032 troy ounces (oz t) in gold. Simply stated, I traded some of my gold at $1194.859375 for an equivalent dollar amount of silver at $16.3589. This does not constitute a recommendation, I am merely stating what I did. Previous Physical Metal Transactions On April 27, 2011 I announced Taking Silver Profits - Swapping Silver for Gold. I have held physical silver and gold investments continuously for 5 years, and on and off before that. Today I cashed out of silver, trading it for an equal dollar value of gold. For the sake of full disclosure, my physical precious metals holdings are now entirely at GoldMoney and I have an affiliate relationship with them. At the time, silver was roughly $46 and gold roughly $1500. Since I sold every ounce I had that was a good move. My next move wasn't that great. On May 1, 2012 I announced I'm Swapping Some Gold for Silver. Fortunately I only bought back about 1/3 of what I sold. Here was my exchange rate: "USD 53.4986/goldgram & USD 30.9600/silver ounce". My expectation all along was for silver to dip to the low $20s but a couple rebounds from the high 20s to the 30s caused me to change my mind. Fortunately I had more patience on this add, and I just bought the rest of my silver-relative-to gold allocation. Time will tell if "gold at $1194.859375 for an equivalent dollar amount of silver at $16.3589" is a good trade, but I like my chances. Gold-Silver Ratio The above chart courtesy of Nick at Sharelynx Gold, also known as Gold Charts "R" Us. Nick has a free week on his charts. Gold Charts "R" Us has 1,000's of pages and over 10,000 charts on a subscription basis, but you can check out the site for free until December 14. Ratio Synopsis In late 2008 it took 85 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. That was a great time to buy silver relative to gold. In April of 2011, when I sold all of my silver, it took roughly 33 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold, a great time to dump silver for gold (or as it turns out, an even better opportunity to go to cash or treasuries). It remains to be seen if this is a good opportunity to buy silver, but I like my chances, not only because of the gold-silver ratio, but because I believe precious metals in general represent a good buy opportunity at this time. Metal-to-Metal Swaps Swapping one precious metal for another is an easy transaction at GoldMoney. For further discussion, please see Physical Gold and Silver vs. Paper Gold and Silver: How Much Markup Are You Willing to Pay? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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