luni, 22 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


New York Times Asks Obama to Prosecute Cheney; Outsourced Torture

Posted: 22 Dec 2014 08:13 PM PST

As horrific as the CIA torture revelations were, please understand that most of the investigation is still classified. I have to wonder, what's in the report we did not see.

Although I commend senator Dianne Feinstein for making sure excerpts of the CIA torture report saw the light of day, her efforts did not go far enough.

Feinstein should have published the entire document. I suspect that would have ended the controversy once and for all. Instead we have nothing but a pack of lies about the use of the intelligence gathered from the likes of Dick Cheney.

Outsourced Terror


Even had Feinstein published the entire report, please understand there are hundreds if not thousands of horrific stories of CIA-sponsored torture that aren't in the Senate report.

The Salon has details in its report on Outsourced Terror.
The executive summary released last week makes only passing reference to an integral component of the CIA program: the "extraordinary rendition" of prisoners to foreign custody for "interrogation" by those countries' intelligence services—with the full knowledge that the men would be tortured.

Because rendition was beyond the report's scope, there's still no official account of the hundreds, perhaps thousands, of other victims of torture that the CIA is responsible for.

As the Washington Post revealed in 2005, the CIA identified two categories of prisoners for detention and interrogation: "high value" detainees that the agency held onto and "second tier" ones who were farmed out for detention and interrogation to other governments. As former CIA officer Bob Baer explained in disturbing detail, "If you want a serious interrogation, you send a prisoner to Jordan. If you want them to be tortured, you send them to Syria. If you want someone to disappear—never to see them again—you send them to Egypt."
Mistakes Irrelevant

Of course, torturing or even killing the wrong guys does not matter to Dick Cheney. He had the gall to say "I'd do it again".

New York Times Asks Obama to Prosecute Cheney

At long last, someone besides a few bloggers like myself has taken the right stand.

I am pleased to announce the New York Times editorial board has come out with the correct assessment.

Here's the headline: Prosecute Torturers and Their Bosses.
Mr. Obama has said multiple times that "we need to look forward as opposed to looking backwards," as though the two were incompatible. They are not. The nation cannot move forward in any meaningful way without coming to terms, legally and morally, with the abhorrent acts that were authorized, given a false patina of legality, and committed by American men and women from the highest levels of government on down.

Americans have known about many of these acts for years, but the 524-page executive summary of the Senate Intelligence Committee's report erases any lingering doubt about their depravity and illegality: In addition to new revelations of sadistic tactics like "rectal feeding," scores of detainees were waterboarded, hung by their wrists, confined in coffins, sleep-deprived, threatened with death or brutally beaten. In November 2002, one detainee who was chained to a concrete floor died of "suspected hypothermia."

These are, simply, crimes. They are prohibited by federal law, which defines torture as the intentional infliction of "severe physical or mental pain or suffering." They are also banned by the Convention Against Torture, the international treaty that the United States ratified in 1994 and that requires prosecution of any acts of torture.

So it is no wonder that today's blinkered apologists are desperate to call these acts anything but torture, which they clearly were. As the report reveals, these claims fail for a simple reason: C.I.A. officials admitted at the time that what they intended to do was illegal.

But any credible investigation should include former Vice President Dick Cheney; Mr. Cheney's chief of staff, David Addington; the former C.I.A. director George Tenet; and John Yoo and Jay Bybee, the Office of Legal Counsel lawyers who drafted what became known as the torture memos. There are many more names that could be considered, including Jose Rodriguez Jr., the C.I.A. official who ordered the destruction of the videotapes; the psychologists who devised the torture regimen; and the C.I.A. employees who carried out that regimen.

Starting a criminal investigation is not about payback; it is about ensuring that this never happens again and regaining the moral credibility to rebuke torture by other governments. Because of the Senate's report, we now know the distance officials in the executive branch went to rationalize, and conceal, the crimes they wanted to commit. The question is whether the nation will stand by and allow the perpetrators of torture to have perpetual immunity for their actions.
Moving Forward

As I have noted before, "moving forward" to Obama means sweeping this all under the rug. I want every bit of this out in the open, preferably in front of an international war crimes tribunal.

At the very least the US attorney general is obligated himself to bring criminal charges.

I am pleased to be at the forefront of this issue from the beginning, years ago actually, as pertains to Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Bush.

Here's my Top 5 prosecution list.

Top Five War Crimes Candidates

  1. Former Vice President Dick Cheney
  2. Former President George Bush
  3. Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
  4. Former CIA director George Tenet
  5. President Barack Obama - for drone policy

Number 5 sure is not going to happen, but I will take any prosecutions we can get.

For further reading, please see


By all means, let's move forward, complete with the knowledge that "moving forward" means sending Cheney to prison for the rest of his pathetic, disgusting life.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Chinese Banks Hemorrhaging Deposits, 1st Quarterly Drop Since 1999; Banks Offer iPhones, Even Cars for Large Deposits

Posted: 22 Dec 2014 04:00 PM PST

Chinese banks have experienced an outflow of deposits for the quarter for first time since 1999. Customers are attracted to trust funds and the stock market which has been on a tear, up 43% in the last six months.

In the first week of December, Chinese investors opened almost 600,000 stock-trading accounts, a 62 percent increase over the previous week, according to China Securities Depository and Clearing Co.

To compete for funds, Chinese banks offer anything from fresh vegetables for small deposits to a Mercedes A180 for deposits big enough and long enough. The effective yield on the Mercedes is approximately seven percent!

China Daily explains the setup in Lenders Look to Attract Deposits with Goodies.
Lenders in China, desperate to attract customers who are finding alternatives for their savings, are turning to giveaways. On offer at one branch in Beijing: An iPhone 6 Plus or a Mercedes-Benz.

Cash rebates, trips abroad, interest rates at the highest premium ever over the official benchmark rate, even free vegetables are among other goodies banks are dangling to get Chinese savers to deposit their yuan in savings accounts.

"Chinese banks are hemorrhaging their deposits," says Rainy Yuan, a Shanghai-based analyst at brokerage Masterlink Securities Corp. "There is no fix for this. All the efforts they made to win savers back will only push up the costs, so it's a losing battle to fight."

Higher returns from Internet funds and investment products such as trusts, combined with the promise of a soaring stock market, have China's banks feeling the drain. They lost 950 billion yuan ($153 billion) of deposits in the three months through September, the first quarterly drop since 1999. In the first 11 months, new deposits were 23 percent lower than in the same period last year, People's Bank of China data show.

The iPhone promotion, by Shenzhen-based Ping An Bank Co in October at a branch in Beijing, offered a 128-gigabyte iPhone 6 Plus in lieu of interest payments for depositing 38,000 yuan for five years. For parking 903,000 yuan for the same period, savers could pick one of four Mercedes-Benz models. A Mercedes A180, which costs 252,000 yuan, would give investors the equivalent of an annualized return of almost 7 percent, compared with the benchmark rate of 4 percent on five-year deposits.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission in September banned what it called "illicit" deposit-gathering practices, including gifts and rebates on deposits. Banks that flout the curbs could face punishment, the regulator said, without clarifying whether product giveaways in lieu of interest payments qualify as gifts.
Loan Financing Scheme Will Implode

Think Chinese banks can lend money at rates that exceed 7 percent safely? I don't, and if not, this scheme of attracting depositors will backfire big time.

How big this deposit-chasing scheme gets is anyone's guess, but the root cause is systemic speculation fueled by central banks' loose monetary policies that manifest in different forms in different places.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Spain to Suspend Evictions, Rewrite Bankruptcy Law Making Mortgage Debt Dischargeable

Posted: 22 Dec 2014 12:41 PM PST

Under a new set of family insolvency laws in Spain, those who have stopped paying their mortgage will be shielded from eviction from their homes.

Via translation from El Confidential, please consider Changing the Bankruptcy Law.
A bill in Parliament proposes new regulations on family insolvencies and will protect from eviction all those individuals who have suspended mortgage payments. The reform centers around rights of the 'consumer debtor' which will have full legal guarantees to negotiate funding agreements with creditors for half of the accrued liability and take up to fifteen years to pay.

The measure is justified by the massive overhang of family suffering in Spain, currently condemning many to full settlement and consequent total ruin of those who go through a bankruptcy process.

Currently, citizens drowned by their financial situation are usually first evicted from their homes and then have to drag existing debt perpetually throughout their working and social life.

The key amendment is on the table prior work involves a negotiation process that empowers the consumer to inform the Court their willingness to reach an agreement with its creditors. The deadline to apply this voluntary refinancing process is two months from the date it becomes impossible for someone to meet payment obligations.

The mere communication to the court of the start of negotiations suspends any eviction proceedings,  including those declaratory judgments that may already be in process.

The law also amends substantial aspects of the settlement process in cases where a person fails to reach an agreement with creditors.

The liquidation plan will take into consideration assets of 'consumer debtor' while prioritizing the essential livelihood of the affected person.

The bill has an aim of preserving basic necessities and will also guarantee a 'fresh start' or second chance for people doomed to a dramatic insolvency. To that end, and in the worst case, the court may totally wipe out all existing debts including that portion not covered by asset liquidation.  This is a radical change from the current procedural process.
Issues and Questions

How many will stop paying their mortgage simply to start a negotiation process?

How much harder will it be for someone to get a mortgage?

Lots of bad debt on the books of banks will have to be realized. How much more capital will Spanish banks need as a result?

There is no way for Spanish banks to pretend debts will be paid once they are discharged in bankruptcy.

This story is going to be interesting to watch from numerous angles.

Addendum:

Reader Bran who lives in Spain provides a more precise translation of the article. Bran writes ....
The reform is articulated from (around) the definition of the so called 'consumer debtor' who will be given full legal rights to suggest financial agreements to his creditors with haircuts of up to half of accumulated debt (liability) and delays of up to 15 years.

The debtor will be able to ask the courts to oversee the delinquency proceedings, both of consumer debt and mortgage debt. The judge will be responsible for deciding if the debtors offer (which must be at least 50% of what is owed) is acceptable. Mortgage debt would not be directly actable but would have to follow the judges oversight in a liquidation procedure that includes all other debt , and that would be designed to help ensure the debtor maintains essential possessions.

From the article it is hard to say exactly how the interpretations of the judge, and so forth would work in practice. What it does do is to delay foreclosure and provide judicial oversight and allow intervention in favor of the debtor. What is more, after any liquidation proceedings are finished (i.e. in bankruptcy) then any unpaid debt will be written off and the debtor may not be pursued for that debt after the proceedings.

Creditors may reject offers by the debtor and the debtor may appeal decisions, but the main point is that is not clear how a judge would rule when it came down to evicting the debtor.

All the best, Bran.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

North Korea Threatens White House, Labels US a "Cesspool of Terrorism"; Sony Ponders YouTube Release of "The Interview"

Posted: 22 Dec 2014 03:03 AM PST

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is an incredible blowhard, but no credible threat to anyone outside North Korea. He just wants attention.

And he's going to get it following his Threat to target White House after Obama Claims North Korea Behind Sony Hacking.
President Barack Obama is "recklessly" spreading rumours of a Pyongyang-orchestrated cyberattack of Sony Pictures, North Korea says, as it warns of strikes against the White House, Pentagon and "the whole US mainland, that cesspool of terrorism".

A long statement from the powerful National Defense Commission late Sunday underscores Pyongyang's sensitivity at a movie whose plot focuses on the assassination of its leader Kim Jong-un.

"Our toughest counteraction will be boldly taken against the White House, the Pentagon and the whole US mainland, the cesspool of terrorism, by far surpassing the 'symmetric counteraction' declared by Obama," said the commission's policy department in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
US May Put North Korea Back on State Terror List

I never thought that I would agree with Kim Jong on anything significant, but his labeling the US a cesspool of terrorism seems an accurate description of US drone policy.

In response to his idle threats, US May Put North Korea Back on State Terror List.
The United States may classify North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism after its "cybervandalism" of Sony Pictures, President Barack Obama has said.

The president said the hack on the Hollywood studio was not an act of war but was "very costly", and could land Pyongyang back on the administration's terror list, a designation lifted by the Bush administration in 2008 during nuclear talks.

"We're going to review those [issues] through a process that's already in place," he told CNN in an interview broadcast on Sunday. "I'll wait to review what the findings are."
'The Interview'

In case you are not in tune with what's happening, Sony was about to release a film called "The Interview".

The film stars Rogen and James Franco as journalists instructed to assassinate North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (played by Randall Park) after booking an interview with him.

Sony Hacked

Prior to release of the film, Sony was Hacked and threatened.
A message from the Guardians of Peace, the hacker group that breached the computer systems of Sony Pictures and warned against releasing the film, said "we want everything related to the movie, including its trailers, as well as its full version down from any website hosting them immediately."

The hackers promised that if Sony scrubbed all traces of the comedy from the Internet — an impossible task — they would cease a campaign that has lasted almost a month and has threatened employees and their families, embarrassed executives and potentially unleashed 100 terabytes of private company data into the world.

A few hours later, President Obama added his voice to the chorus of critics, including irate Hollywood actors, who say Sony and the nation's theater operators should not have canceled the release. "We cannot have a society in which some dictator someplace can start imposing censorship here in the United States," he said.
Obama Says Sony Made Mistake by Pulling 'The Interview'

In a press conference, President Obama claimed Sony Made Mistake by Pulling 'The Interview'.

I agree with the president that pulling the movie is giving into the demands of fools. But it was not really Sony that pulled the plug.
Actor George Clooney, in an interview yesterday with Deadline, noted that Sony didn't want to cancel its film, but had no choice once movie theaters started canceling screenings.

"Sony didn't pull the movie because they were scared; they pulled the movie because all the theaters said they were not going to run it," he said. "And they said they were not going to run it because they talked to their lawyers and those lawyers said if somebody dies in one of these, then you're going to be responsible."

Sony CEO Michael Lynton denied that his company had "caved" under the threat. In an interview with the Hollywood Reporter this morning, he said, "The movie theaters came to us one by one over the course of a very short time. We were very surprised by it…. At that point in time we had no alternative to not proceed with a theatrical release on the 25th of December….We have not caved. We have not given in. We have persevered."
Who Hacked Sony?

Wired says Evidence That North Korea Hacked Sony Is Flimsy.
Attribution Is Difficult If Not Impossible

First off, we have to say that attribution in breaches is difficult. Assertions about who is behind any attack should be treated with a hefty dose of skepticism. Skilled hackers use proxy machines and false IP addresses to cover their tracks or plant false clues inside their malware to throw investigators off their trail. When hackers are identified and apprehended, it's generally because they've made mistakes or because a cohort got arrested and turned informant.

Nation-state attacks often can be distinguished by their level of sophistication and modus operandi, but attribution is no less difficult. It's easy for attackers to plant false flags that point to North Korea or another nation as the culprit. And even when an attack appears to be nation-state, it can be difficult to know if the hackers are mercenaries acting alone or with state sponsorship—some hackers work freelance and get paid by a state only when they get access to an important system or useful intelligence; others work directly for a state or military. Then there are hacktivists, who can be confused with state actors because their geopolitical interests and motives jibe with a state's interests.
Alternate Theories

New York Magazine proposes 4 Alternate Theories while asking What If North Korea Didn't Hack Sony?

I read the article and none of the alternate theories had any strong evidence, but neither does the North Korea theory.

China Condemns Cyber Attack

This morning, Reuters reports China condemns cyberattacks, but says no proof North Korea hacked Sony.
China said on Monday it opposed all forms of cyberattacks but there was no proof that North Korea was responsible for the hacking of Sony Pictures, as the United States has said.

North Korea has denied it was to blame and has vowed to hit back against any U.S. retaliation, threatening the White House and the Pentagon. The hackers said they were incensed by a Sony comedy about a fictional assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which the studio has pulled.
YouTube Release

Sony's CEO says 'we would still like the public to see this movie'.

That seems pretty obvious to me. What other reason is there to make a movie?

And given that theaters pulled the plug on the release, Sony considers YouTube a possible distributor for The Interview.

My personal viewpoint is the script sounds incredibly boring. I would not watch this thing if it was free. Then again, I do not like movies in general, so I am not the best of judges.

I am curious though, how many will want to see this thing simply because of the controversy. Regardless, I won't be in that group.

I am also curious about one more thing: How would president Obama and Congress have reacted if the script was an assassination plot on Obama instead of  Kim Jong-un?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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