Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Australia Coming Apart at the Seams
- Black Market in Ukrainian Currency Masks True Extent of Decline; Banks Impose 30% Foreign Exchange Fee; Freely Floating Hryvnia Announced
- Smart Debt Engineering: Markets Giddy Over Greek Debt Proposal; ECB Nixes Plan Already; Party On Dudes
- Gallup CEO Calls 5.6% Unemployment Rate "The Big Lie": What's a Realistic Unemployment Rate?
| Australia Coming Apart at the Seams Posted: 03 Feb 2015 11:18 PM PST With the huge spotlight on Europe, Greece, the US Dollar, Canada, Switzerland, and China, it's easy to lose track of major things outside of mainstream attention. Like what? Like Australia. Australian Government on Brink of Collapse Conservatives swept into power into Australia in September of 2013 in the biggest Labour rout in history. In December of 2013 I wrote Australia's Alleged Conservatives Surrender to Unions; Currency Madness Everywhere. Shockingly, Australian conservatives may not last even one full term. Three days ago The Australian reported Queensland election 2015: Labor on brink of forming government. My friend Brisbane Bear, from down under reported ... Hey Mish,I asked BB what this all meant. He replied ... Massive impact! Federal election is just under 2 years away. The Prime Minister Tony Abbottis in serious trouble and will battle to hold the top job. A leadership spill is rumored. Meaning of Liberal What follows may not make much sense unless one understands the meaning of "Liberal" in Australian politics. Liberals Believe:Simply put, liberal means conservative to US readers. With that in mind, let's continue. Prime Minister Leadership is Terminal Please consider Tony Abbott Leadership Now 'Terminal'. Former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett has unloaded on Tony Abbott's "terminal" leadership, saying he must be dumped "as quickly as possible" or risk destroying the Coalition government.Liberal MP Dennis Jensen Calls on Tony Abbott to Resign Yesterday, the Sydney Morning Herald reported Liberal MP Dennis Jensen Calls on Tony Abbott to Resign. Tony Abbott's leadership has been rocked by a political earthquake and is under imminent threat, with backbench MPs variously calling for the Prime Minister to resign, for a party room ballot next week and expressing doubt he can revive his political fortunes.Government in Treacherous Waters The Australian reports Government in Treacherous Waters. US Version of Story On February 3, the Wall Street Journal reported Australia Cuts Interest Rates to Record Low. Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 2.25% Tuesday, joining a procession of central banks that have eased policy settings this year in response to the deflationary impact of tumbling oil prices.No Mention of Massive Political Crisis There was not one mention in the Journal of massive, and unprecedented political turmoil. Instead we see this ... The Reserve Bank of Australia joins the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and the central banks of India, Denmark and Switzerland in either announcing substantial policy shifts or easing monetary settings—in some cases dramatically—since Jan. 1. Australia faces a slowing global economy, especially slowing demand of China for natural resources. A housing bust, baked in the cake is going to tremendously exacerbate Australia's woes. And icing on the ruins is the potential return of Labour. 2013 Flashback Mish Flashback May 2, 2013: Australia Manufacturing Collapses as Commodity Supercycle Stalls; Labor and Unions Wrecked Australia. Labor and Unions Wrecked Australia2012 Flashback Mish Flashback September 4, 2012: By 2015 Hard Commodity Prices Will Collapse; Australia's Mining Boom Dies (and the Official Denials Start) I have been calling for a base metals bust for some time, fueled by a slowdown in China. Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets has been saying the same thing. Indeed, it is analysis from Pettis that influenced my views in the first place.In that post I quoted Australian prime minister (at that time) Julia Gillard who said "There is no question about whether we have a boom, the issue is whether we make it last. Let's be clear, reports of the mining boom's death are exaggerated." I responded ... It is not up to Australia at all whether the boom is over or not. The boom is entirely dependent on what China does or doesn't do. Moreover, there is no question the boom is over. The real question is "How big is the bust?" Question of Faith Some put their faith in hyperinflation, commodity supercycles, and the belief China could expand forever. I put my faith elsewhere. Thanks once again to those who helped me reach the right conclusions. Michael Pettis and Steve Keen are in that group. I mentioned both of them above and both of them recently in Financial Blogger Profile of "Mish" on Equities.Com. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 03 Feb 2015 06:05 PM PST The Ukrainian central bank publishes the official exchange rate daily. At the time of this posting, the "official" exchange rate is 16.24 Hryvnias to one US dollar (posted as 1624 to a hundred dollars), nearly identical to the chart below.  The above chart show the Ukrainian Hryvnia is down about 50% since the beginning of 2014. Black Market Masks Decline That's a pretty steep decline, but the true picture is much worse. A black market has developed because the official peg is too generous. Ukrainian citizens have crossed the border, maxed out debit cards with cash transactions at the official rate, then cashed in on the difference. And exporters selling goods at the official rate have started to complain about huge losses. Merchants will gleefully give you 16 Hryvnias for a US dollar, but you will lose mightily on the transaction because the black market rate is more like 21.5. Exchange at the official rate and you immediately lose about 25%. Freely Floating Hryvnia Announced Ukraine wants to kill the black market, but the only way to do so is float the currency. Yesterday, the National Bank of Ukraine posted (in English) Banking Community Advocates Shift to Market-Based Exchange Rate-Setting Mechanism. Here's a Ukrainian source that claims the Hryvnia Will Float on February 5 but it is not an official document. Banks Initiate 30% Currency Exchange Transaction Fee While waiting for the free float to occur, banks needed to do something to halt the spread of debit card cash transactions at the alleged official rate. This was the solution: Banks Impose a 30% Foreign Exchange Fee. The article notes that in the border towns in the Ternopil region, Lviv, and Transcarpathia, that people had been running to the nearest ATM in Romania or Poland to remove currency, at the official rate. Customers used gold class preferential commissions for ATM transactions buying dollars for 16 Hryvnias, then selling the dollars at the black market rate that is as high as 21.5 Hryvnias to the dollar. Ukrainian banks were getting killed on debit card and other exchange transactions, thus the support for a free-floating Hryvnia. How Low Will It Go? From 8 to 21.5 represents a 62.7% decline. And I suspect it won't stop there. Why should it? A plunge from 8 to 30 would be a 73% decline in just over a year. And that's my initial guess barring some quick monetary rescue by the IMF. If and when the Ukrainian National Bank does float the currency, other sites will note the "shocking overnight" plunge. In reality, the plunge has already taken place, over time. The charts just don't show that yet. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 03 Feb 2015 12:45 PM PST Smart Debt Engineering The markets are giddy today over a Plan to End Debt Standoff released yesterday by Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis. Varoufakis said the government would no longer call for a headline write-off of Greece's €315bn foreign debt. Instead, Greece wants "Smart Debt Engineering" that would avoid the need to use a term such as a debt "haircut", politically unacceptable in Germany and other creditor countries because it sounds to taxpayers like an outright loss. Apparently a haircut is OK as long as it's not called a haircut! Varoufakis seeks a "menu of debt swaps" to ease the burden, including two types of new bonds. The first type, indexed to nominal economic growth, would replace European rescue loans, and the second, which he termed "perpetual bonds", would replace European Central Bank-owned Greek bonds. Perpetual bonds: clearly never meant to be paid back. Gotta love the honesty of the idea. ECB Nixes Plan Already Today the European Central Bank Said "No" Latest Greek Bailout Plan. Yanis Varoufakis, Greek finance minister, had proposed to European officials that Athens raise €10bn by issuing short-term Treasury bills as "bridge financing" to tide the country over for the next three months while a new bailout is agreed with its eurozone partners.Markets Giddy Over Greek Debt Proposal Even though no one has agreed to the Greek plan, the markets are giddy anyway, simply over the prospect of a settlement.
Party on Dudes It's all meaningless of course. Nonetheless, the Wall Street motto remains "Party On Dudes". Yes, I have a video tribute for that. Link if video does not play: Wayne's World at the 2008 MTV Movie Awards. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Gallup CEO Calls 5.6% Unemployment Rate "The Big Lie": What's a Realistic Unemployment Rate? Posted: 03 Feb 2015 11:41 AM PST On Linked-In, Gallup CEO, Jim Clifton proclaims 5.6% unemployment is "The Big Lie". And it is. I have talked about this for years, but perhaps it would be interesting to hear the same thing from a CEO of a big agency. I picked this story up from ZeroHedge. Emphasis in italics is mine. Clifton first calls the unemployment rate "extremely misleading" but later on calls it "The Big Lie", and that is the title of his Linked-In article as well. From Gallup CEO, Jim Clifton .... Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment The Gallup Daily U.S. Employment numbers look like this:  Gallup concluded the unemployment rate is 7.1% with another 15.9% working parttime who want a fulltime job. Those are daily numbers, not seasonally adjusted so cannot be compared directly with BLS monthly reports. Let's take a look at the numbers two more ways with BLS data. Participation Rate  The participation rate is percentage of the working-aged people (over 16) who are either employed or are actively looking for work. As you can see that number has plunged. However, the chart is skewed by two factors making it a poor choice as proof of how bad things are.
Let's try one more way: Who is not working that arguably should be working? Employment Rate of Those 25-54  Since 1999 the percentage of people aged 25-54 who are working is down quite a bit. To be sure, some of them are staying in school longer. If you are in school and not working, you are not counted as unemployed. If you are in school and working you are counted as employed, even if you work 3 hours a week. These factors have an artificial positive bias for the unemployment rate. Disability Disability numbers have soared. And for extremely suspicious reasons. Disability fraud is rampant. If you are disabled, you are not in the labor force (and therefore not unemployed). Here are some links to consider:
Unemployment Rate Distortions Because of all the distortions about what constitutes unemployment and employment, including frequent double-counting of part-time employment in the payroll survey, I believe it is purposely difficult to calculate a realistic unemployment rate. No politician wants unemployment going up on his watch, so over time, the methodology of calculating has changed. Add in disability fraud and unwanted retirement and the number would soar. I propose a better measure of unemployment would come from these simple questions:
In regards to number three, one would need to weed out purposeful disability fraud, but even if errors were made in this category, the numbers would be far more reflective of what's happening than the current purposeful distortions. The above questions would pick up students in school who would rather be working, and it would also pick up people on forced retirement whom would rather be working. I define forced retirement as people out of money, with no income, not wanting to retire, but having to retire simply to collect Social Security money. A realistic unemployment rate would factor in
What's a "Realistic" Unemployment Rate? Based on demographic trends, I suggest the real unemployment rate after weeding out disability fraud, forced retirement, kids hiding out in school for lack of a job, and those who are not counted as unemployed simply because they gave up looking. Realistically, the unemployment rate is more like 9% than 7%. Clifton says the official unemployment rate of 5.6% is "The Big Lie". I agree. The only dispute is the attempt to figure out "Just how big a lie is it?" Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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