luni, 13 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Peace Must Be Stopped At Any Cost; Lies and Hypocrisy on Iran

Posted: 13 Apr 2015 08:05 PM PDT

The Republican attack dogs were all over Rand Paul when made the statement "I'm going to keep an open mind" on Obama's deal with Iran.

"I do believe that negotiation is better than war," Paul told TODAY's Savannah Guthrie in an exclusive interview.

War proponents will settle for nothing less than war. Ironically, they conclude an attack video on Rand Paul with a nuclear explosion mushroom cloud.

Glee Over Alleged Failure

Republican neocons do not trust Obama, Iran, or for that matter anything but war and CIA overthrows in spite of its miserable war failures in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and in spite of a horrendous overthrow record in Iran, Ukraine and other places.

The neocons were gleeful when the New York Times announced Iran's Supreme Leader Says Sanctions Must Lift When Nuclear Deal Is Signed.

Few bothered to read the second paragraph of the Times article which stated ...

"The assertions by the leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could be tactical, intended to give both the negotiators and himself some political space to get Iran's hard-liners accustomed to the framework of the nuclear deal reached a week ago with the United States and other world powers."

 Lies and Hypocrisy

Republicans in general make two conflicting statements.

  1. Iran cannot be trusted at all
  2. They can make a better deal

Say what?

I ask a simple question: How can you make a better deal, if you will not believe any deal you get?

Curiously, I have not seen any person or news agency point out this obvious and blatant hypocrisy of the Republican position.

Yet, I can easily explain their position: The Republican war hawks, like Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, do not want a deal, period.

This is not about waiting until 2016 for a "better" deal, this is about killing any chance of a deal for good, right here, right now.

As Scott Walker said, I'll blow up any Iran deal, no matter what our European allies think.

In regards to his stance on public unions, I have had nothing but praise for Walker. But with his statement on Iran, he proves he belongs in the State House not the White House.

Perpetual War

In the 2003 article War Without End, the New Yorker sums it up nicely in a single paragraph.
There is little doubt that some of the most hawkish ideologues in and around the Bush Administration entertain dreams of a kind of endless war. James Woolsey, a former director of Central Intelligence who has been proposed as a Minister of Information in Iraq by Donald Rumsfeld, forecasts a Fourth World War (the third, of course, having been the Cold War), which will last "considerably longer" than either of the first two. One senior British official dryly told Newsweek before the invasion, "Everyone wants to go to Baghdad. Real men want to go to Tehran." And then, presumably, to Damascus, Beirut, Khartoum, Sanaa, Pyongyang. Richard Perle, one of the most influential advisers to the Pentagon, told an audience not long ago that, with a successful invasion of Iraq, "we could deliver a short message, a two-word message: 'You're next.'"
Friends and Enemies

Several "small" things seemingly went wrong with the "you're next" thesis.

  • Iraq was a miserable failure.
  • Afghanistan was a miserable failure.
  • Iraq fomented the rise of ISIS.

It's quite ironic that out hated enemy Iran is on our side against ISIS while our alleged ally Saudi Arabia funnels money to them.

Of course, if the goal is perpetual war, it makes perfect sense to make friends of enemies and enemies of friends.

Neocon Terms Explained

  • Negotiation: Do what we say or we will blow you up
  • Weak on Defense: Weak on Offense
  • War is last option: War is first option
  • Balanced Budget: A balanced budget requires at least two conditions. Condition one: The US spends more on the military than the entire rest of the world combined. Condition two: The US spends more on military than healthcare. Both conditions are necessary, and I suspect I have missed many conditions.
  • WOMDs: Scuds, unusable chemicals buried in the desert, and virtually anything real or imagined, including paper air planes and pea shooters.
  • Peace Keepers: US drones, phosphorous bombs, nukes, cruise missiles, tanks, warthogs, etc. If the US has them, they are classified as peace keepers. If anyone else has them they are by default WOMDs.  
  • Threat: Every person on the planet. This explains the need to spy on everyone in the world including allies such as Angela Merkel.
  • Terrorist Suspect: Anyone who disagrees with Dick Cheney
  • Peace is the Goal: Perpetual war is the goal

History Lessons

In History Lesson for Hypocrites, Warmongers, and Fools I mentioned reader Michael who called me "Neville" ...

I made my response. Please click on the above link to read it.

Since then, reader Michael responded with a bunch of often repeated hype about Hitler and Iran's intent to destroy Israel culminating with "If you don't believe Iran's ultimate goal is a worldwide caliphate, I've got a slightly used Soyuz rocket to sell you.  This deal with Obama is one small step in the right direction as far as Iran is concerned, and you and your pacifists-with-blinders-on buddies are helping guide the way."

It is futile communicating with those whose minds are totally closed, especially those who are 100% clueless about history so I stopped.

Conversations like these go nowhere. Michael cannot see, nor will he ever see that there cannot possibly be peace with his position.

One side or the other will annihilate the other. All Michael wants is insurance his side will come out on top. This is what it is all about.

Iran Never Threatened to Wipe Israel Off the Map

Here's one more irony in the blatant ignorance of reader Michael.

Fairness in Accuracy and Reporting says due to Translation Errors Iran never threatened to wipe Israel off the map.
The menacing threat has been repeated endlessly in U.S. corporate media in recent years: Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for Israel to be "wiped off the map." "Iran," "Israel" and "wipe" in one form or another occur together in more than 17,000 articles in the Nexis news database over the last seven years. It plays a critical role in the case for preemptive war against Iran. There's just one problem: It never happened.
Rather than excerpt the article further as I normally do, I suggest you read the article in entirety. It is well researched, and well documented. The article cites CNN, the New York Times, Juan Cole, Counter Punch, and remarkably even the CIA.

Buy hey, the war at all costs brigade will settle for nothing other than perpetual war. Reader Michael, the warmongers, and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all in on the act.

When perpetual war is the goal (and it is), peace must be stopped at any cost.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Readers ask "How Does One Invest in Russia?"

Posted: 13 Apr 2015 01:20 PM PDT

In Russia Forced to Do Right Thing? Buy Russia? I explained why I bought into Russian equities. In response, I received numerous emails asking me how.

This is not a recommendation. Please do your own due diligence. If anything, I tend to be early.

One easy way is via ETFs. I have three.

  1. RSX - Market Vectors Russia: PE 6, Dividend 3.88%
  2. RSXJ - Market Vectors Russia Small-Cap ETF : PE 5, Dividend 1.91%
  3. TRF - Templeton Russia and East Europe: PE: NA, Dividend 5.2%

This does not constitute advice, I am merely saying what I did. The trailing PEs of RSX and RSXJ are favorable. I do not know what the future holds.

Financial information is from Yahoo Finance, as linked to above.

RSX Monthly



click on any chart for sharper image

RSXJ Monthly



TRF Monthly



TRF has been in existence much longer than the others. RSX has been in existence longer than RSXJ. This explains why the time frames for each chart are different.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Greece to Default on IMF in May, June if No Deal Reached

Posted: 13 Apr 2015 11:18 AM PDT

Greece is threatening to withhold payments to the IMF in May and June. This time it does not sound like a bluff. And if it's not a bluff, we will finally know precisely when midnight occurs.

The Financial Times reports Greece prepares for Debt Default if Talks with Creditors Fail.
Greece is preparing to take the dramatic step of declaring a debt default unless it can reach a deal with its international creditors by the end of April, according to people briefed on the radical leftist government's thinking.

The government, which is rapidly running out of funds to pay public sector salaries and state pensions, has decided to withhold €2.5bn of payments due to the International Monetary Fund in May and June if no agreement is struck, they said.

"We have come to the end of the road . . . If the Europeans won't release bailout cash, there is no alternative [to a default]," one government official said.

Default is a prospect for which other European governments, irritated at what they see as the unprofessional negotiating tactics and confrontational rhetoric of the Greek government, have also begun to make contingency plans.

In the short term, a default would almost certainly lead to the suspension of emergency European Central Bank liquidity assistance for the Greek financial sector, the closure of Greek banks, capital controls and wider economic instability.

The government is trying to find cash to pay €2.4bn in pensions and civil service salaries this month.

It is due to repay €203m to the IMF on May 1 and €770m on May 12. Another €1.6bn is due in June.

The funding crisis has arisen partly because €7.2bn in bailout money due to have been disbursed to Greece last year has been held back, amid disagreements between Athens and its European and IMF creditors over politically sensitive structural economic reforms.
Third Bailout Needed

Greece has two major problems.

The first problem is Greece needs a third bailout even if it gets the €7.2bn in bailout money due. See Third Greek Bailout? Another €53.8 Billion Needed? Primary Account Surplus Revisited.

The vast proportion of alleged bailout money simply goes back to the Troika as interest payments. It's not Greece that's being bailed out here, but creditors.

The second problem Greece faces is it no longer has a primary account surplus. Unless Greece can remedy that by June, it will either face capital controls imposed by the ECB or it will be forced off the euro.

Midnight Hour

Meanwhile, since it is highly unlikely either side gives in this time, there is only one thing left to do: wait.



Link if video does not play: Wilson Pickett - In The Midnight Hour

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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