| Inane Analysis on "Who Benefits from a Higher Minimum Wage" Posted: 11 May 2015 07:48 PM PDT Without any analysis or comment, Barry Ritholtz posted EPI propaganda on " Who Benefits from a Higher Minimum Wage".  Barry, if you are going to post such nonsense, at least comment on it. I would like you to say how stupid such analysis is. That may be expecting too much. But if you agree with it, at least say so. Say anything. If you have an opinion, what the hell is it? Here is mine. Winners- Those who receive a pay hike and keep their job
Losers- Those who are not hired because they are not worth it.
- Those who would have been hired but won't be because fewer stores will open
- Small businesses who are forced to close because they cannot afford higher minimum wages
- Employees of small businesses that close because they cannot afford higher minimum wages
- Consumers, especially those on fixed income who have to pay more for goods because stores hike prices (which in turn causes the likes of the EPI to whine for still more hikes)
- Taxpayers who have to pay inane pension promises when unions demand reciprocal hikes
- Taxpayers who instead of paying the "Walmart Subsidy" that Ritholtz whines about, funds 100% of the benefits
The EPI (and I am 99% positive Ritholtz) only looks at the winners, and even then superficially. What about the losers? Does the EPI care one iota? Ritholtz? I actually prefer to be wrong about Ritholtz. Looking for an excellent example of points three and four? If so, please consider Capitalism for Me, Socialism for Thee; Progressive Capitalism?If the agenda fits, the EPI ignores the problems and trumps up the benefits. Unthinking analysts follow right along. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Microsoft Finally Abandons Despised Update Model: Windows 10 Will Be Last Release Posted: 11 May 2015 09:40 AM PDT Microsoft has finally abandoned its bug-ridden update model process. Extreme Tech reports Windows 10 will be the last version of Windows. For the last few decades, Microsoft would sit down and build a new version of Windows every three years or so. This new version would start shipping on new PCs, but by and large, consumers didn't run out and buy the new version to upgrade their computers. They simply got the new Windows when they got a new computer. With Windows 10, Microsoft isn't even getting cash from those who do want to buy the latest and greatest version. Following the furor over Windows 8 and it's tablet-centric design, Microsoft has announced Windows 10 will be a free update for one year from release.
Update has thus far been a hub for security patches and bug fixes, which is a necessary evil when you're running the most popular desktop operating system in the world. Windows 10 would get "real" updates that add functionality and change the way the OS works over time.
This would be more like the Chrome model for software updates, where new versions are pushed out frequently. Sometimes you open Chrome and it looks a little different or does something new. Almost no one knows what version of Chrome they are running because it changes so frequently. This experience might be the future of Windows. It makes you wonder how long they'll bother with the "Windows 10″ branding. One day it might simply be "Windows."
It sounds like making Windows 10 free isn't just a mea culpa from Redmond. This "final" version of Windows has the core changes necessary to be updated incrementally, so Microsoft wants as many people as possible to be running it. Built-in apps like Xbox and Mail have been designed to be designed in Windows 10 to be updated independently of the OS, and even Office for Windows 10 will get incremental feature updates rather than a big launch every 3-4 years.
Most of Microsoft's income from Windows is based on new PC sales, so it's not likely to take a hit from using this ongoing update model. This is Windows as a service, which is something Microsoft has been wanting to do for years. A few years ago Microsoft might have had the clout to charge an additional subscription fee for Windows as a service, but now? It's not clear if Microsoft will go down that road, or if the new PC license fees will be enough to satiate investors. We'll see what happens after the free update period for Windows 10 is over. Future PricingHow will pricing work? Good question: Microsoft sheds light on Windows 10 revenue, future OS pricing plans. When Microsoft announced Windows 10, it said devices running Windows 7 and Windows 8/8.1 would receive a free upgrade for one year after the OS shipped. Devices upgraded in this fashion wouldn't just get a one-time update code — Microsoft committed to keeping any upgraded device current "for the supported lifetime of the device." Exactly what those words meant has never been clear. But new statements out of Redmond may have shed some light
Last week Microsoft announced that it would no longer recognize revenue from Windows 10 consumer licenses when those devices were purchased, as Computerworld reports. Instead, it will defer some of the revenue over several quarters, depending on the estimated supported lifetime of the device.
Windows 10's free upgrade: An unlikely stick
Here's the good news: Microsoft is incredibly unlikely to try and turn Windows 10's free upgrade into a perpetual stick. For one thing, any attempt to stick consumers with a gotcha price at the end of the first 12 months would result in the mother of all class-action suits, and Microsoft is savvy enough to know this. Handing users a free product, only to stick them with unexpected continued-use costs 12 months later after businesses and consumers had already transitioned, would run afoul of consumer protection laws in both the US and the EU.
With that said, however, there's a definite question regarding exactly how long the "expected lifetime of the device" actually is. Microsoft has historically provided support for operating systems long past what it considered their prime — Windows XP support lasted 13 years, while Windows 7 Extended Support will run through 2020.
Microsoft has fought for years to pull users off of old versions of Windows, and the "supported for the lifetime of the device" language is likely designed to allow the company to move to a different support model. That doesn't mean Microsoft intends to charge outright for future versions of the operating system, however. More likely, Microsoft wants users to treat Windows upgrades the same way that Android, iOS, and browser updates are typically treated, with the majority of users jumping for new versions as soon as they're available. Businesses or individuals that choose not to do this may have the option of purchasing extended phone or technical support, in much the same way that companies can now. This sounds like good news and probably will be as long as Microsoft does not roll out a major disaster like Windows 8. What happened to Windows 9? There won't be one. Supposedly this gives Microsoft a fresh start. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| IMF Works on Contingency Plans for Greek Default; Greece Says Deal Difficult; Timeline of Obligations Posted: 11 May 2015 09:10 AM PDT Schaeuble Warns Defaults Can SurpriseAs negotiations head down to the wire, Schaeuble repeats a message he gave a month ago Defaults Can Surprise. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that sovereign defaults can catch officials off guard as Greece prepares for a finance ministers' meeting Monday with the European Central Bank threatening to tighten the screw.
Greek officials are huddling with their creditors before the gathering in Brussels which could determine whether the ECB restricts the country's access to emergency funding. ECB policy makers are looking for signs of concrete progress from the talks to justify maintaining access to the bank's Emergency Liquidity Assistance. Deal DifficultReuters reports Greece says deal will be 'difficult' at Eurogroup meetingFinance Minister Yanis Varoufakis acknowledged that a deal to ease Greece's cash crunch was not likely at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers later on Monday despite progress in talks with lenders on some issues.
Greece is under growing pressure to reach agreement with lenders to avoid financial chaos though many Greeks also want the government to stick to its "red lines" of avoiding further pension cuts and labor reforms making it easier to fire workers.
A 750 million euro debt repayment to the IMF falls due on Tuesday but Varoufakis said a deal that would provide some liquidity relief for Greece was more likely in the coming days.
"Τhe likelihood is not ruled out. The messages we are getting are that it will be difficult," Varoufakis told Sto Kokkino radio on Monday. Timeline of Obligations The above from Goldman Sachs via Steen Jakobsen. IMF Works on Contingency Plans for Greek DefaultThe Wall Street Journal reports IMF Works With Greece's Neighbors to Contain Default Risks. The International Monetary Fund is working with national authorities in southeastern Europe on contingency plans for a Greek default, a senior fund official said—a rare public admission that regulators are preparing for the potential failure to agree on continued aid for Athens.
Greek banks are big players in some of its neighbors' financial systems. In Bulgaria, subsidiaries of National Bank of Greece SA, Alpha Bank SA, Piraeus Bank SA and Eurobank Ergasias SA own around 22% of banking assets, roughly the same as Greek banks own in Macedonia. Greek banks are also active in Romania, Albania and Serbia.
"We are in a dialogue with all of these countries," said Jörg Decressin, deputy director of the IMF's Europe department. "We are talking with them about the contingency plans they have, what measures they can take."
Overall, the IMF believes that subsidiaries of Greek banks in southeastern Europe should be able to withstand the failure of their parent companies. "Our assessment of the Greek banks in that region is that they are fairly liquid; we have not seen major deposit outflow," Mr. Decressin said. Because they are subsidiaries, rather than branches, the lenders have to hold their own capital buffers and can refinance themselves at national central banks. That would make it easier to split them off from their parent banks if necessary.
The IMF has nevertheless urged national supervisors and governments to keep a close eye on the situation. "There is high-frequency monitoring going on at the level of the authorities and our advice is that this needs to continue," Mr. Decressin said.
One scenario that concerns the IMF is what could happen if panic over Greece's finances pushes savers in the region to pull their money out of Greek-owned banks. "These banks…may be totally fine, but there could still be in the population a perception, these are Greek banks and they are not fine, and people would turn up and try to withdraw their deposits. That is something you cannot model," Mr. Decressin said.
National safety nets have in the past been vulnerable to rumor-fueled bank runs. In June last year, the Bulgarian government had to take over Corporate Commercial Bank, after depositors pulled out their savings amid negative news reports about the lender's main shareholder. It took the government six months to compensate the bank's depositors, far longer than the 25 days mandated under European Union law. Things Fine!Got that? Things are fine as long as you don't want your money that is supposedly available on demand, but isn't. The stupidity of fractional reserve lending is staggering. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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