Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Obama's Time Machine: Can He Really Turn Back the Clock?
- Drachma Sightings Appear on Hotel Bill
- Ready to Compromise?
- Greece Connects with Russia, Unveils €2 Billion Gas Deal; Germans in Rift with Eurozone; Did France Save Europe?
- German Finance Minister Proposes Greece for Puerto Rico Trade: Should US Accept the Offer?
- Absurd IMF Warning on US Rate Hikes
| Obama's Time Machine: Can He Really Turn Back the Clock? Posted: 09 Jul 2015 05:49 PM PDT Time Machines Appear in Brussels Via the magic of time machines, it appears that midnight three weeks ago has still not arrived. I say that because the midnight hour for a Greek deal came and went weeks ago. Yet, this evening, the New York Times says Greece Submits 11th-Hour Bailout Proposal to Creditors. Only a day after grim predictions of financial and social collapse in Greece, a scramble appeared underway to work out the details of a new bailout package to bring the country back from the brink.Breathtaking About Face! Forward March! Tspiras can likely force anything through Greek parliament following the massive "No" campaign. But how does one explain the sudden "about face" by Wolfgang Schäuble? The New York Times offers this explanation: "There is a group of people who have been sent to help the Greeks, to try to transform words into action," said a French government official with knowledge of the effort. Group of People? Hmm. Who can that "group of people" be at this hour (whatever hour it may be) other than the US? It would not surprise me in the least if the US guaranteed Greek debt. "France refuses that Greece leaves the eurozone in the name of our position and our commitments," he [French prime minister Manuel Valls] told lawmakers in the National Assembly on Wednesday in a speech that was broadcast live on Greek television. Valls also suggested that Mr. Tsipras's most pivotal request — a program to make Greece's mountainous debt more sustainable — be taken seriously by other European countries as part of any deal. Until recently, that has been nearly a taboo idea in Europe's halls of power, since European taxpayers are currently on the hook if Greece defaults on its debts. "There can be no taboos. It is essential to establish a sustainable trajectory for Greek debt in the coming years," Mr. Valls said. Even German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, is in on the about-face act. Yesterday the Financial Times reported Alexis Tsipras loses Sigmar Gabriel, his last best hope in Germany. "Alexis Tsipras had pulled down the last bridges over which Europe and Greece could have moved to a compromise." Today Gabriel says "It's not a case of bringing Alexis Tsipras to his knees, but it is certainly not that Europe should be brought to its knees." Obama Calls "In a flurry of recent phone calls with the French, German and Greek leaders, President Obama and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew have pressed all sides to come to a deal that would avoid a breakup of the eurozone." The US concern clearly is NATO and Russia. The US does not want Greece to fall into Russian hands. If there is a deal, the US is behind it. Deal or no deal, what the hell did Obama promise or threaten to cause this miraculous reversal by Schäuble, Tusk, Gabriel and others? That's what I want to know. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Drachma Sightings Appear on Hotel Bill Posted: 09 Jul 2015 04:48 PM PDT Credit card processors have been planning, and are prepared for a return to the drachma. Bloomberg reports Long-Feared Currency Makes Fleeting Appearance on Reporter's Bill. When Bloomberg sought information, the bill was magically changed. Citigroup and Visa Inc. declined to comment. A Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. spokeswoman said that the Athens hotel had billed the customer in euros, not drachmas. Bloomberg notes "Each time a consumer swipes a card, information passes between four parties: a merchant, the merchant's bank, a network like Visa or MasterCard Inc. and the consumer's bank." Since Hilton declined to provide the name of its acquirer, we do not know precisely who is testing what. Regardless, we do know major credit card companies are prepared for Grexit. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 09 Jul 2015 02:11 PM PDT The Greece cabinet is ready compromise on tax hikes and pensions. But what does "compromise" really mean? Will Germany go along? The devil is in the details and we have no details. But we do have this headline Tsipras Seeks to Rush Austerity Package Through Greek Parliament. The Greek government is preparing to rush a package of economic reforms and austerity measures through parliament as early as Friday in a bid to convince its eurozone creditors it is committed to striking a deal for a third bailout that would save it from crashing out of the euro.Clearly some ministers are ready to compromise, others much less so. But we do not have specific proposals and Greece needs another 60 billion euros or so according to the IMF. Is Germany ready for compromise? The Greek parliament? The eurozone finance ministers? If the answer to all three is yes, then we have a deal, and likely a better one for Greece than it had two weeks ago. But will it be a good deal? I suggest no. Greece is better off doing needed reforms and simply declaring all of the debt fostered on it as "odious". If another deal is signed, Greece will remain a hostage, with terms yet to be seen. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 09 Jul 2015 11:45 AM PDT Yesterday, US treasury Secretary Jack Lew and International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde Pressured Eurozone Ministers to Grant Debt Relief to Greece. Today, the Telegraph reports Germans in Rift with the Rest of Europe Over Debt Relief as Greek Reforms Ready 'Within Hours'. Did France Save Europe? The Telegraph has no details, just a catchy headline. The subtitle is interesting though. The day France saved Europe?IMF Won't Give Debt Relief I am curious as to how France could save anything by itself. Here are a couple more snips: IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, delivered his final press conference at the head of the Fund's reseach department earlier today. Merkel Moves Is Merkel making a move on Greek debt?< Angela Merkel has been in Kosovo today. She said that a classic "haircut" on loans to Greece was out of the question. Ms Merkel faces a fight to pass through a new bail-out for Greece through her parliament, which as the ESM's largest creditor, holds a blocking minority vote.Rumor Mill I am unconvinced of anything above. All I see is rumors and fear. If there is "debt relief", loan extensions, and another bailout, then Germany will have to sign off on it. Recall that another €60 billion or so is needed. Will the German parliament approve? And if Greece gets relief, Portugal and Ireland will want a better deal too. Russia the Concern If there is a deal, it will be for one reason only: Fear of driving Greece into the hands of Russia. Just today, Greek Energy Minister Unveils Plan for €2bn Gas Deal with Russia. Greece has mapped out details of a planned landmark €2bn gas project with Russia in a move that could stir tensions with Brussels just as Athens is seeking a third bailout.No One's Hostage If another deal is signed, Greece will remain a hostage. It's as clear as that. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| German Finance Minister Proposes Greece for Puerto Rico Trade: Should US Accept the Offer? Posted: 09 Jul 2015 10:36 AM PDT German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has a sense of humor. Today he said to U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew: I'll Trade You Greece for Puerto Rico. Who knew Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's prickly finance minister, had a sense of humor?Assume for a second the offer is legitimate. Should the US accept it? MarketWatch Answer The Puerto Rican government's debt-to-GDP ratio is about 60%. But if you include the island's unfunded pension liabilities and the debt of its public enterprises, that figure rises to about 150%, according to data provided by Goldman Sachs.MarketWatch Blew It Actually, the trade would be a good deal for the US. The key is in the wording of the proposal. The Eurozone would be stuck with all of Puerto Rico's debt while Greece "adopted" the US dollar. Technically speaking, Greece could "adopt" the US dollar today. Schäuble never said that the US would have to bail out Greece, Nor did he say Greeks would have the ability to print US dollars. So how would it work then? The answer is the same way it does in Zimbabwe. Recall that Zimbabwe phased out local currency at 35 quadrillion to US$1. Zimbabwe has started retiring its almost worthless local currency in favor of the US dollar. Today, 35 quadrillion Zimbabwean dollars are equal to US $1, as a result of hyperinflation which hit the country in 2009.Zimbawbe Adoption Zimbabwe "adopted" the US dollar in 2009. Technically, nothing stops Greece from doing the same today. Practically speaking, Greece would run out of dollars just as it ran out of euros, but that would not be our problem. So here is the bottom line: In return for absolutely nothing, Schäuble proposed the "eurozone would take in Puerto Rico". Economically speaking, we should accept the offer as proposed. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Absurd IMF Warning on US Rate Hikes Posted: 09 Jul 2015 12:59 AM PDT The IMF has only one legitimate purpose that I can figure out: To continually write position papers and articles silly enough to keep bloggers loaded with material for rebuttal. The Wall Street Journal provides a case in point with IMF: U.S. Economy at Risk of Stalling Next Year if Fed Raises Rates Prematurely. "The Federal Reserve risks stalling the U.S. economy by raising interest rates too early, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday as it detailed its call for the central bank to delay a move until 2016." The idea that a single rate hike or two would sink the economy now but not in 2016 is of course ridiculous. The IMF's primary concern is the rising US dollar. If investors continue to plow into dollar assets, particularly given weaknesses in Europe, China and other emerging markets, "growth could be significantly debilitated," the fund warned. The IMF estimates each 5% appreciation of the dollar could cut a half-percentage point off U.S. growth. The IMF wants a weaker dollar for the US and a weaker euro for Europe. How's that supposed to happen? The IMF is also worried about China. Does it want a weaker yuan too? Obvious Problem The problem should be obvious, but obviously it isn't, so I will spell it out: It's mathematically impossible for every currency to depreciate against each other simultaneously. Credibility The IMF is worried about the loss of credibility if the Fed hikes now and has to reverse later. "Both the European Central Bank and Sweden's Riksbank were forced into rate reversals in 2011, and the Bank of Japan seesawed through rate moves in the 1990s and 2000, fund economists noted. Such an about-face puts the Fed's all-important credibility at stake, the IMF said." In reality, there is not a central bank on the planet that has any credibility. Bubble after bubble is the norm. The Fed failed to predict the dotcom bust, the housing boom, the housing bust, or the great recession. The Fed has no credibility to lose. But the Fed does have good company. The credibility of the IMF is nonexistent as well. The number of global GDP downgrades by the IMF is staggering. Heck, for years on end the IMF could not even get Greece correct. Greece missed countless IMF GDP estimates. IMF Admits Greece Needs Debt Restructuring At long last, the IMF admits what any person with half a brain knew half a decade ago: Greece Will Need Debt Restructuring. "Greece is in a situation of acute crisis, which needs to be addressed seriously and promptly," Ms Lagarde said. Getting out of that crisis would take both reforms by Athens and a "debt restructuring", she said. That's actually the first solid statement by Lagarde in years that I agree with. The irony is the eurozone ministers, Germany, and the creditors don't want to go along with it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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