marți, 20 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Weak Holiday Hiring Coming Up?

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 11:58 AM PDT

Those expecting a big surge in seasonal hiring this year are likely to be wrong if outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas is correct.

One relative bright spot is Amazon Hiring More than Penney's, Walmart Combined.
Leaving one widely watched holiday hiring forecast in the dust, Amazon (AMZN) said Tuesday that it will add 25 percent more seasonal workers this year, outpacing many of its bricks-and-mortar competitors who plan to keep hiring flat.

Last month, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said it expects retailers to add roughly 755,000 seasonal hires to their payrolls in the final three months of the year. That level would be flat with last year, when holiday hiring fell short of predictions.

"Once again, most analysts are anticipating healthy holiday sales this year," CEO John Challenger said in a statement. "However, there are several factors that may prevent these strong sales expectations from translating into increased hiring."

"When retailers do add holiday workers, fewer of those jobs are in traditional spots, such as sales clerk or cashier."

In 2014, Challenger predicted retailers would hire more than 800,000 seasonal workers from October through December, which would have been the first time they hit this number since 1999. Instead, they ended up adding 755,000 jobs, a decline of 4 percent from 2013.
Seasonal Hiring Expectations

  • Amazon 100,000 a 25% increase
  • Macy's 85,000 no increase
  • Wal-Mart 60,000 no increase
  • JC Penney 30,000 down 5,000
  • Nordstrom 11,800 up 1,000
  • Toys R Us 40,000 down 5,000
  • Kohl's 69,000 up 2,000
  • Target 70,000 no increase
  • Burlington 10,800 up 19%
  • Sports Authority 3,500 no change
  • GameStop 28,000 up 12%
  • Belk 5,800 no increase
  • Bon-Ton 13,000 not stated
  • UPS 90,000-95,000 no increase
  • Federal Express 55,000 up 5,000

If hiring is indeed flat or nearly so, the upcoming jobs reports are likely to be marginal at best.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Housing Starts Surprise to Upside Led by Multi-Family, Permits Surprise to Downside

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 10:26 AM PDT

There's something for bulls and bears alike to cheer about in today's housing starts report. Starts were ever-so-slightly above the top Econoday Estimate but permits were well below the lowest economist's estimate.
Starts, driven by a spike in multi-family units, came in much stronger than expected in September, news offset however by a significant decline in permits. Starts jumped 6.5 percent to a 1.206 million annual rate which is just outside Econoday's high estimate. Multi-family starts surged 18.3 percent to 466,000 which follows large spikes in related permits in May and June. Single-family starts rose very slightly, up 0.3 percent to 740,000.

But it's the permit side of the report that's weak, down 5.0 percent to only 1.103 million which is well below Econoday's low estimate. And it's the multi-family component that's especially weak, down 12.1 percent to 406,000 which is the lowest reading since March. Permits of single-family units are flat, down 0.3 percent to a 697,000 rate.

Taking the ups and downs all together, this report is probably in trend, pointing to an extended upward trend for construction though the abrupt downturn in permits does hint at slowing in the months ahead. Year-on-year, starts are up a very striking 17.5 percent with permits, however, up only 4.7 percent.
Permits



Single-Family Starts



Those charts add quite a bit of needed perspective on the housing "recovery".

Single family construction is most important stat because it leads more directly to family formation.

With permits down and single-family units stagnating, one has to question the huge surge in optimism from builders. Not only are sales weak, but traffic is down.

For details, please see Homebuilder Confidence Soars to Highest Level in 10 Years Despite Falling Traffic; Unwarranted Optimism?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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