marți, 27 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

EU Rules Bitcoin is a Currency, US Says Bitcoin is a Commodity; Which Side is Correct? What About Gold and BitGold?

Posted: 27 Oct 2015 11:46 AM PDT

European Court of Justice Rules Bitcoin is a Currency

Last week, the European Court of Justice ruled Bitcoin is a Currency and Exchanges are VAT-exempt.
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has ruled that bitcoin exchange transactions should be exempt from VAT. The ECJ ruling stated that bitcoin transactions "are exempt from VAT under the provision concerning transactions relating to currency, bank notes and coins used as legal tender."

The case involved a request regarding the tax status on exchange commissions and margins which came from a Swede called David Hedqvist who was looking to set up a one-man bitcoin exchange. He had approached Swedish tax authorities for an advanced decision on whether or not the exchange of bitcoin into Swedish Krona and vice versa should be considered as a VAT taxable or VAT exempt activity.

The tax authorities said Bitcoin trading should be subject to VAT, but Hedqvist thought the answer should be no, and he took it to court and eventually it reached the appeal court in Sweden. Since all VAT law flows from Europe, the appeal court passed the case on to the ECJ to decide.

There have been some limited decisions in the US involving criminal cases where bitcoin was viewed as money, for the purposes of money laundering offence. Meanwhile, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last month deemed bitcoin to be a commodity and closed down trading platform Coinflip in the process.

Commenting on the ruling, Sarah Buxton, a tax lawyer at the global law firm Bryan Cave LLP said: "The European Court of Justice, Europe's highest court, has ruled that exchanges of Bitcoin into fiat currency should be exempt from VAT under Article 135(1)(e) of the VAT Directive concerning transactions relating to currency, bank notes and coins used as legal tender.

Jens Bader, chief commercial officer of Secure Trading said the ruling had far reaching implications for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as all EU states will now have to comply with the VAT ruling.

Bader said: "Many with a vested interest in cryptocurrencies will be overjoyed by the ruling. It is easy to see why an un-regulated currency not subject to sovereign states taxes is an enticing prospect. However, it is a shame to see the ECJ cave in on this issue, and for Bitcoin not to be held to universal VAT standards.

"The question of whether or not Bitcoin should be subject to VAT is a simple one – if it is considered a currency it shouldn't be subject to VAT and if it is considered a product it should be. In my mind, Bitcoin is not a currency. It is an exchangeable product – but a product none-the-less – and for that reason I am surprised by the ECJ's ruling.

"The distinction lies in the fact that Bitcoin exchanges, and cryptocurrency exchanges like it, are not regulated and licensed financial services. While we call it a 'currency', in fact Bitcoin is a tradable commodity, like gold and silver.
US Says Bitcoin is a Commodity

In the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), ruled on September 17 that Bitcoin Is a Commodity.
Virtual money is officially a commodity, just like crude oil or wheat.

So says the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which on Thursday announced it had filed and settled charges against a Bitcoin exchange for facilitating the trading of option contracts on its platform.

"In this order, the CFTC for the first time finds that Bitcoin and other virtual currencies are properly defined as commodities," according to the press release.

By this action, the CFTC asserts its authority to provide oversight of the trading of cryptocurrency futures and options, which will now be subject to the agency's regulations. In the event of wrongdoing, such as futures manipulation, the CFTC will be able to bring charges against bad actors.
CFTC Targets Bitcoin Options Site

On the day of the ruling the CFTC Targeted Coinflip with a cease and desist letter due to its trading of option on the commodity known as bitcoin.
On Thursday, the CFTC announced that it had issued an order against and settled charges with Coinflip, operating under the name Derivabit. The company allowed Bitcoin users to engage in options and futures trading. Most of the site was disabled in July 2014, with all customer money refunded, before the CFTC contacted the site. It was fully closed in January 2015.

"For these contracts, Coinflip listed Bitcoin as the asset underlying the option and denominated the strike and delivery prices in US Dollars," the CFTC wrote in its order.
Bitcoin Money Laundering

When it suits the bureaucrat's purpose, rulings can also go the other way.

Please consider the March 30, New York Times report Inquiry of Silk Road Website Spurred Agents' Own Illegal Acts, Officials Say.
On Monday, the government charged that in the shadows of an undercover investigation of Silk Road, a notorious black-market site, two federal agents sought to enrich themselves by exploiting the very secrecy that made the site so difficult for law enforcement officials to penetrate.

The agents, Carl Mark Force IV, who worked for the Drug Enforcement Administration, and Shaun W. Bridges, who worked for the Secret Service, had resigned amid growing scrutiny, and on Monday they were charged with money laundering and wire fraud. Mr. Force was also charged with theft of government property and conflict of interest.

A criminal complaint unsealed on Monday in federal court in San Francisco outlined the allegations against the two former agents.

While investigating Silk Road, Mr. Force "stole and converted to his own personal use a sizable amount of Bitcoins," the digital currency that was used by buyers and sellers on the website and which he obtained in his undercover capacity, the complaint said.

"Rather than turning those Bitcoin over to the government, Force deposited them into his own personal accounts," it added.
Is Bitcoin Money or a Commodity?

If theft of bitcoin constitutes "money laundering", does that make bitcoin money, a currency, or a commodity?

More simply, is bitcoin money or a commodity?

The answer is yes to both. Money laundering charges have nothing to do with it.

What is Money?

To understand why bitcoin is both money and a commodity, we must first answer the question: What is Money?

To that, let's turn to Murray Rothbard's classic: What Has Government Done to Our Money?

Here are seven pertinent Rothbard quotes with thanks to Wikiquote. Pay particular attention to number 2.

  1. The cumulative development of a medium of exchange on the free market — is the only way money can become established. … government is powerless to create money for the economy; it can only be developed by the processes of the free market.
  2. Money is a commodity … not a useless token only good for exchanging; … It differs from other commodities in being demanded mainly as a medium of exchange.
  3. It doesn't matter what the supply of money is.
  4. Inflation may be defined as any increase in the economy's supply of money not consisting of an increase in the stock of the money metal.
  5. Money … is the nerve center of the economic system. If, therefore, the state is able to gain unquestioned control over the unit of all accounts, the state will then be in a position to dominate the entire economic system, and the whole society.
  6. Inflation, being a fraudulent invasion of property, could not take place on the free market.
  7. Freedom can run a monetary system as superbly as it runs the rest of the economy. Contrary to many writers, there is nothing special about money that requires extensive governmental dictation.

Money is a Commodity

For those who have not done so, I highly recommend downloading and reading the Rothbard's eBook What Has Government Done to Our Money?

The key point is number two: "Money is a commodity. It differs from other commodities in being demanded mainly as a medium of exchange."

Bitcoin is clearly a commodity whose primary purpose is a medium of exchange.

Bitcoin depends on a blockchain ledger to validate all transactions. Bitcoin Wiki has a nice description of the BlockChain Technology.

What About Gold and BitGold?

BitGold has nothing to do with Bitcoin. The names just happen to be similar. Bitcoin is a digital currency, backed by nothing, whereas BitGold is 100% backed with audited, real physical gold.

BitGold does not depend on blockchain. Instead, BitGold users can tie their account to a debit card and purchase nearly anything, anywhere, as long as the merchant accepts a debit card.

Given that gold can once again easily be used to purchase nearly anything, it is difficult if not impossible to say that gold is no longer a "medium of exchange".

And if BitGold is money, there is no longer any basis for the often heard phrase "gold is not money".

Some believe gold to ceased to be money following President Nixon's Closing of the Gold Window (See Nixon Shock).

The only possible debate about whether or not gold is money pertains to the phrase "demanded mainly as a medium of exchange".

BitGold, GoldMoney

For those who are fed up with currencies backed by nothing, as well as those who want to avoid huge markups on gold coins and gold bullion purchased in small quantities elsewhere, I highly recommend opening up BitGold or GoldMoney accounts.

Disclosure

As I have noted before, I have a relationship with both GoldMoney and BitGold.

Storage fees at GoldMoney are the lowest in the industry. I get a tiny percent of the tiny storage fees collected. There is no difference to the account holder.

At BitGold, I get a small signup fee, and again that comes out of BitGold's pocket, not the account holder.

I do not enter relationships to collect fees. I turn down such offers all the time.

Related Articles


Want out of the competitive debasement fiat currency QE and negative interest rate trap?

Then Sign Up for your BitGold Account today if you have not already done so.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Regional Fed Reports Five for Five in Contraction; Texas Region Worsening, Richmond Negative Again

Posted: 27 Oct 2015 09:44 AM PDT

Dallas Regional Activity Dives Deeper Into Contraction

Yesterday the Dallas Fed general activity index slipped further into contraction to -12.7, well below the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate of -6.0, and also lower than the lowest guess of -7.0.
Look no farther than to the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for evidence on how severely low oil prices are affecting the energy sector. Contraction for the general activity index deepened to minus 12.7 in the October report from September's minus 9.5. This is the 10th negative reading in a row. New orders are now negative for a 12th month in a row, at minus 7.6, while unfilled orders are on a similar streak, at minus 3.1. Production is positive for a second straight month, at plus 4.8 in a reading that, however, is very likely to return to the negative column given how low orders are. Hiring is flat with price readings, especially for finished goods, in contraction. This report joins those from Empire State, Philly Fed, and Kansas City which are all pointing to another month of contraction underway for the nation's factory sector.
Richmond Makes it Five for Five

Today's Richmond Fed report makes it five for five in contraction, albeit just barely, at -1. Bloomberg Econoday reports ...
The Richmond Fed makes it five for five, that is five regional Fed reports all showing negative headlines for October. The Richmond Fed index did improve, however, to minus 1 from September's minus 5. New orders came in at zero following the prior month's steep contraction of minus 12. But backlog orders, at minus 7, are down for a third month which is not a plus for future shipments or employment. Shipments in October fell to minus 4 from minus 3 which is also a third month of contraction. Hiring is still positive, unchanged at plus 3, but continued growth here is uncertain. Price data are mute with prices received showing slight contraction as they are in other reports. This morning's report on durable goods orders showed another month of broad weakness in September and this report, together with the other regional reports, point to another weak month for the factory sector in October.
Durable Goods Weaker Than Expected

Rounding out the manufacturing weakness, earlier today I reported Cracks in the Economy Widen as Durable Goods Orders Sink. Here are some additional charts.

Durable Goods New Orders



Durable Goods New Orders Excluding Transportation



Transportation, especially large aircraft orders can skew the numbers. The above chart separates out those orders, providing a different perspective.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Cracks in the Economy Widen as Durable Goods Orders Sink

Posted: 27 Oct 2015 08:56 AM PDT

The word of the day is "awful". That's the best description of today's durable goods report. Durable goods orders came in at -1.2% lower than the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate of 1.0%. And last month's numbers were revised lower across the board.



There is no way put lipstick on that pig.

Durable Goods Lowlights
The factory sector is showing cracks with orders contracting slightly more than expected, down 1.2 percent in September with August's contraction revised lower to minus 3.0 percent. Other readings are likewise weak with ex-transportation down 0.4 percent following a downward revised 0.9 percent decline in August and with core capital goods orders down 0.3 percent after falling a downward revised 1.6 percent in August.

Other readings include a second straight and sharp 0.6 percent decline in unfilled orders and a third straight decline in inventories, down 0.3 percent which is the sharpest decline since May 2013. The decline in unfilled orders suggests that factories, lacking new orders, are working down backlogs while the decline in inventories points to growing caution in the business outlook. But factories are keeping up shipments which is good for GDP, up 0.2 percent after August's 0.5 percent decline with core capital goods shipments up 0.5 percent after a 0.8 percent decline.

Motor vehicles are a positive in the report, showing a 1.8 percent gain in new orders and a 1.6 percent gain in shipments with both reversing similar sized declines in August. Also positive are electrical equipment and fabricated metals, with both perhaps getting a boost from construction, along with defense aircraft and defense capital goods.

Industries showing declines in new orders include primary metals, machinery, and computers & electronics. Orders for civilian aircraft fell 62 percent in September following a 23 percent decline in August.

This report falls in line with industrial production data where manufacturing in September slipped for the fourth time in five months. Weakness in exports is the balancing factor tipping the factory sector away from growth.
Durable Goods Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year



Year-over-year, durable goods orders are down for the eighth consecutive month, and tenth out of the last eleven. Manufacturing is clearly in recession.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Keen vs. Keen: Will the Real Steve Keen Please Stand Up?

Posted: 27 Oct 2015 01:31 AM PDT

Economists Prove That Capitalism Is Unnecessary

Several readers sent me a link to Economists Prove That Capitalism Is Unnecessary.

The title was hardly surprising, given that is what many economic illiterates think. However, I was startled to find out it was written by Steve Keen, one of my favorite economists.

Did Steve Keen really propose such a thing?  Thankfully, he didn't.

The first sentence of his article reads "Actually they've done no such thing. But they do effectively assume that it's unnecessary all the time. ... I've read this sort of nonsense in dozens of mainstream academic papers over the years, and railed against it in an academic sort of way."

With that, I was more than a bit relieved. And in regards to central planning and ability of bureaucrats to spot bubbles, bad planning, and instability, Keen says ...

"And how would economic agents notice this instability? They would realize that a pattern of relative prices that had occurred once before in the past happened again. Hmmm. O.K.A.Y."

Getting to the heart of the matter, Keen praises Hayek ...

"The strength of a market economy was how it let people combine fragmented and incomplete knowledge in a way that no centralized system could do. Hayek's main target here were socialists who believed that a complex economy could be centrally planned—thus doing away with markets institutionally."

Keen vs. Keen

In his Debtwatch Manifesto Keen proposes three mechanisms for dealing with the debt crisis. The first is a debt jubilee. The second is a mechanism that would act to restrict share prices.

In his third proposal, Keen states "Lenders would only be able to lend up to a fixed multiple of the income-earning capacity of the property being purchased—regardless of the income of the borrower. A useful multiple would be 10, so that if a property rented for $30,000 p.a., the maximum amount of money that could be borrowed to purchase it would be $300,000."

Hmm. How can Keen, me, or anyone else discern the correct "useful multiple"? Shouldn't this be left to the free market? 

Keen also discusses full reserve proposals, one by Irving Fisher, the other HR2990 a bill Proposed by Congressman Dennis Kucinich in 2011.

Keen: Technically, both these [full reserve] proposals would work. I won't go into great detail on them here, other than to note my reservation about them, which is that I don't see the banking system's capacity to create money as the causa causans of crises, so much as the uses to which that money is put. The problem comes when that money is created instead for Ponzi Finance reasons, and inflates asset prices rather than enabling the creation of new assets.

Mish: I propose, the system's capacity to create money at will is the very problem. The fact of the matter is central banks can create money but not dictate where it goes. Curiously, Keen is willing to let bureaucrats decide what constitutes Ponzi financing, even though history shows government bodies and central banks have a 100% failure rate at identifying bubbles. Keen is concerned about "where the money goes", yet is willing to trust bureaucrats more than the free market. To quote Keen directly ... "And how would economic agents notice this instability? They would realize that a pattern of relative prices that had occurred once before in the past happened again. Hmmm. O.K.A.Y."

Keen: Though I am a proponent of government counter-cyclical spending, I am skeptical about the capacity of government agencies to get the creation of money right at all times.

Mish: Keen is a proponent of government counter-cyclical spending, but what government? A socialist one? A communist one? Republican? Democrat? Keenian? Mishian? Who decides what is cyclical and what is counter-cyclical? Keen? Bernanke? Hillary? Me?

Given central banks and government bodies have a 0% success of spotting bubbles, Keen's statement about inability of government agencies to get the creation of money right at all times is more than a bit curious.

The simple fact of the matter is that no one needs to sit back and declare what is money and what isn't. No one needs to decide the correct money supply.

Free Market is the Solution

The free market, left on its own accord will decide nicely. The problem is not lack of regulation, the problem is regulation.

The Fed is part of the problem. Bureaucrats wasting money is part of the problem. Corporate cronyism is part of the problem. Free markets, not bureaucratic intervention is the solution.

Those who believe differently need to explain debt bubble boom and busts of ever increasing amplitude.

One either has faith in free markets, or one doesn't!

So, why should government, any government decide what is money and what isn't? Why should any government or any bureaucratic body like the Fed have such powers?

Will the Real Steve Keen Please Stand Up?

In his Forbes article, Keen mostly argues in favor of capitalism and free markets. In his Debt Manifesto, Keen argues for central planning and controls.

I am a big fan of Steve Keen. He has taught me much about debt deflation. Our differences primarily lay in what to do about things.

Free markets are often criticized for causing problems, but can someone, anyone, tell me when they have ever been tried? 

In his latest Forbes article Keen nearly gets things correct. He is wrong about the "system's capacity to create money at will" not being the essential problem, yet he hints at it.

That is a start. Now, Keen needs to go through his Debt Manifesto one more time to figure out what is and what is not "central planning" and eliminate everything that isn't.

Steve, what's left?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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